重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 关税是近期市场普遍关心的话题，我们整理了一些外资投行的观察视角，以供参考。 截至本文发布，美国总统特朗普表示，他正考虑对进口汽车和零部件关税实施临时豁免的可能性， 以便让汽车企业有更多时间在美国建立生产设施。 在此之前，特朗普称豁免电子产品关税只是一项 临时措施，这些产品将被即将实施的行业关税所覆盖。 局势正在以分钟级速度演变。 关税政策能重振美国的就业吗？ 有外资报告援引学术研究结果显示，特朗普关税政策或对美国就业存在负面影响。关税税率每提高10个 百分点，受保护行业的就业岗位将增加0.2-0.4%；而关税驱动成本每上升1个百分点，就业岗位会减少 0.3-0.6%。考虑美国的经济体量，意味着关税保护对制造业就业的提振作用不足10万个岗位，而由此带 来的成本压力对下游就业的拖累效应则高达约50万个岗位。 企业应对关税风险的五种常见策略 外资投行基于观察企业应对上一轮关税争端的经验，总结出面对关税风险企业通常可以采取的五种应对 策略。在最新的关税政策下，部分策略是否还能继续 ...

每经编辑 金冥羽 美国总统特朗普宣布"对等关税"方案后，苹果公司股价连续两个交易日遭遇重挫，市值蒸发了5333.6亿美元（约合人民币3.88万亿元），成为本轮下跌 中"受伤"最重的公司之一。 图片来源：wind 据央视财经援引彭博社报道，目前苹果公司90%的手机在中国组装，这意味着，苹果公司将不得不面临一个艰难的选择：是自行消化关税成本，还是将其 转嫁给消费者。 根据投行摩根士丹利的测算，对华加征关税将使苹果公司每年增加约85亿美元的成本。路透社则援引分析人士的话称，如果苹果公司将关税成本全部转嫁 给消费者，iPhone16 Pro Max的在美零售价格将从现在的1599美元，上涨到2300美元（约合16750元人民币）。 事实上，正是在特朗普第一个任期内，苹果公司开始推动供应链多元化，包括将部分手机和耳机生产转移至印度，将部分耳机、手表和电脑生产转移至越 南，并在马来西亚和泰国增设电脑产品生产线。但特朗普政府计划对东南亚国家普遍征收高额"对等关税"，无疑将重创苹果公司的供应链。 今年2月，苹果公司曾承诺，在未来四年内在美投资超5000亿美元，包括在得克萨斯州开设新的人工智能服务器工厂，以及在亚利桑那州的新工 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aterian reported net revenue for Q4 2024 at $24.6 million, a decline of 25% from $32.8 million in Q4 2023, primarily due to SKU rationalization and lower liquidation levels of high-cost inventory [42] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was essentially break-even, improving by 98.5% from an adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.6 million in Q4 2023 [47][41] - The net loss for Q4 2024 was $1.3 million, an improvement of approximately 83.1% from a loss of $7.7 million in the year-ago quarter [46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company streamlined its product portfolio to focus on six foundational brands, which has improved efficiency and ROI [18] - Gross margin for Q4 2024 increased to 63.4% from 51% in the year-ago quarter, driven by SKU rationalization and product mix [43] - Contribution margin for Q4 2024 was 19.4%, a significant improvement from negative 0.8% in the previous year [44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aterian's revenue is primarily derived from e-commerce marketplaces, with a focus on Amazon, Walmart, and Target Plus [12] - The company plans to expand its market presence in 2025, targeting growth in the UK and additional channels [25][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Aterian's strategy for 2025 includes channel and geographic expansion, new product launches, and a focus on consumable products [24][28] - The company aims for net revenue growth of 5% to 7% in 2025, with an expected increase of 9% to 12% on a comparable basis, excluding discontinued SKUs [22][49] - Aterian has initiated a two-year share repurchase program of up to $3 million, reflecting confidence in the company's future [35][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's ability to navigate challenges, including tariffs, and expects to achieve break-even adjusted EBITDA in 2025 [30][52] - The company is focused on diversifying its supply chain away from China, aiming to reduce reliance from 75% to 50% by the end of 2026 [32][34] - Management noted that consumer behavior has not shown significant softness, and the diversified brand portfolio positions the company well to handle potential market volatility [92][93] Other Important Information - Aterian's operational improvements in 2024 have led to a 91% reduction in adjusted EBITDA losses, indicating effective strategic initiatives [41] - The company is committed to long-term growth, projecting a CAGR of 10% to 12% from 2025 to 2027 [54] Q&A Session Summary Question: Performance of SKUs on Target Plus during Black Friday - Management indicated that the steam mop performed well on Target Plus, and they plan to expand SKU offerings gradually based on performance [65] Question: Guidance for Q1 and seasonal dynamics - Management explained that new product launches and channel expansions are expected to drive stronger sales in the second half of the year, leading to a relatively weaker Q1 [71][73] Question: Impact of tariffs and pricing strategy - Management clarified that while tariffs are expected to increase costs, they believe they can mitigate some of these through price adjustments, with a projected price increase of 7% to 10% [76][78] Question: Long-term growth targets and consumer behavior - Management discussed that the three-year growth targets are driven by new product launches and channel expansions, and they have not observed significant changes in consumer behavior despite broader economic concerns [85][90]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the sporting goods industry, but it indicates a cautious optimism among executives, with 44% feeling optimistic about 2025 [29][70]. Core Insights - The sporting goods industry has maintained a growth rate of 7% annually from 2021 to 2024, but this is expected to slow to 6% from 2024 to 2029 due to economic challenges and cautious consumer behavior [29][70]. - The report highlights the dual agenda of companies focusing on both profitability and revenue growth amidst a challenging environment [29][70]. - A significant opportunity exists in addressing the 1.8 billion people globally who do not meet the World Health Organization's recommended activity levels, representing a market potential equivalent to twice the adult population of India [33][36][48]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The sporting goods industry faces a challenging environment with a projected annual growth rate of 6% from 2024 to 2029, influenced by economic factors and consumer caution [29][70]. - Despite challenges, 44% of industry executives express optimism for 2025, indicating a cautious confidence in navigating opportunities [29][70]. Key Themes - The industry is experiencing a shift in consumer behavior, with a growing divide between active and inactive consumers, creating both challenges and opportunities for brands [37][39]. - The rise of challenger brands has led to a market share reshuffle, with established companies like Adidas and Nike losing ground to new entrants [39][52]. - The demand for live fitness experiences has surged, with 81% of consumers participating in live fitness classes, indicating a shift towards community-oriented fitness solutions [42][53]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the need for companies to balance revenue growth with productivity improvements in response to a cautious consumer landscape [70][75]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and potential tariff increases pose significant risks, necessitating strategic adjustments in supply chain management [72][88]. - Sustainability remains a priority, but the focus has shifted due to external pressures, with only half of executives prioritizing sustainability compared to two-thirds the previous year [89][90].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, total revenue was $272 million, down 7.2% sequentially, with adjusted EBITDA of $93 million, also down 7.6% sequentially, resulting in adjusted EBITDA margins of 34.1% [8][11][15] - GAAP net income for the quarter was $57 million, compared to $62 million in Q3 2024, driven by lower revenues in both segments [16][17] - Adjusted net income and earnings per share were $57 million and $0.71 per share, respectively, down from $63 million and $0.79 per share in Q3 2024 [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pressure control segment revenues were $177 million, down 4.5% sequentially, with operating income decreasing by $1.7 million or 3.3% [12] - Spoolable technology segment revenues were $96 million, down 11.2% sequentially, with operating income decreasing by $7.4 million or 22.4% [13] - Adjusted segment EBITDA for pressure control decreased by $0.5 million or 0.8% sequentially, while spoolable technology segment adjusted EBITDA decreased by $7.3 million or 17.1% [12][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the year with a cash balance of $343 million, an increase of approximately $39 million from the previous quarter [19] - The public or Class A ownership of the company averaged 85% and ended the quarter at 86% [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to ramp up production at its new facility in Vietnam and introduce new products to enhance value in both segments [28][36] - Focus on international expansion and diversification of revenue sources, targeting a long-term goal of 40% international revenue contribution [30][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in outperforming underlying activity levels in the US market despite trade policy uncertainties [42][43] - The company anticipates a strong rebound in customer activity in the second and third quarters of 2025, with expectations for increased international orders [30][36] Other Important Information - The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share, to be paid in March [23] - The company made a cash tax payment of approximately $25 million in January related to deferred 2024 federal taxes [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for US activity in the next few quarters - Management is confident in their ability to outgrow underlying activity levels, anticipating a US rig count in the 550 to 560 range [42][43] Question: Margin headwind comparison between Bossier City and China - Historical costs were at least 35% higher for the Bossier facility compared to the Far East supply chain, with increasing tariffs expected to impact costs [45][46] Question: Game plan for mitigating tariff impacts - The company has flexibility between its facilities in Vietnam and Bossier City to mitigate tariff impacts, with a focus on vertical manufacturing capabilities [57][60] Question: Commercialization of H2S solutions - The H2S product is commercialized, with shipments expected to begin in March or April, targeting the Middle East market [68][70] Question: Spoolable technology growth in 2025 - The company is optimistic about growth in spoolable technology, despite a flat completion activity outlook, with international growth potential remaining strong [80][86] Question: International growth opportunities in pressure control - Management acknowledged progress in international growth but refrained from providing specific details on opportunities in regions like Argentina and the Middle East [95][96]