Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a downward trend in yields since the end of September, despite an overall adjustment since the beginning of the year, with the ten-year government bond yield currently around 1.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The active ten-year government bond has switched to 250016, which has a higher yield due to VAT, currently at approximately 1.8%, compared to the previous bond 250011, which remains below 1.75% [1]. - The downward trend in bond yields is supported by positive factors, including the central bank's resumption of government bond trading operations, which alleviates market supply and demand pressure [1]. - The economic environment in October is facing challenges, with a longer holiday period and a marginal decline in the effects of previous policy stimuli, leading to a downward trend in economic performance compared to Q3 [1]. Group 2: Credit Bonds and Global Comparison - Credit bonds have shown a similar trend to government bonds, but credit spreads remain in a downward oscillation [2]. - As of October, China's ten-year government bond yield is approximately 1.84%, which is still low compared to global standards, with only Switzerland, Japan, and Singapore having lower yields [2]. - Most Western developed countries have higher government bond yields than China, with U.S. Treasury yields around 4%, indicating a significant China-U.S. yield spread [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is currently in a favorable narrow oscillation pattern, with expectations for policy easing in early next year, suggesting potential trading opportunities [4]. - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a preferred tool for medium to long-term allocation and trading, offering stable duration, transparent holdings, and low fees [4].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 24, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 338.7 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 283 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 55.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market in China showed a relaxed funding environment, with overnight repurchase rates slightly decreasing to around 1.32% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous X-repo system remained around 1.3%, with a supply scale of about 100 billion yuan [3] - Non-bank institutions were borrowing overnight funds against pledged credit bonds at rates between 1.47% and 1.48% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.91% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks was around 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Major Interest Rate Bond Yields - The yields for various government bonds were reported, with the 1-year government bond yield at 1.4025%, and the 10-year bond yield at 1.6900% [9] Group 5: Recent MLF Operations - The central bank plans to conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for November, as 900 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature [13] - The total medium-term liquidity released through MLF and reverse repos in November is 600 billion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level for four consecutive months [13] Group 6: Bond Market Developments - The central bank successfully issued 45 billion yuan in central bank bills in Hong Kong on November 24, with a 3-month issuance of 30 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.60% [13] - The issuance of local government bonds in Inner Mongolia is scheduled for December 1, amounting to 10.4 billion yuan [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market was volatile this week. In a sideways environment, the spread changes of individual bonds are more worthy of attention. The liquidity of the 25 Attached Interest 02 bond in the 30Y Treasury bonds increased significantly this week, once exceeding that of the 25 Special 02 bond. The report focuses on three questions: why the liquidity of the Attached Interest 02 bond improved significantly, which bond might become the active bond in the future, and what the current operation suggestions are [5][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market was volatile this week. The liquidity of the 25 Attached Interest 02 bond in the 30Y Treasury bonds increased significantly, once exceeding that of the 25 Special 02 bond [5][11]. - The reasons for the significant improvement in the liquidity of the Attached Interest 02 bond may be twofold. Firstly, there is speculation that the next issuance scale will exceed expectations. According to the Ministry of Finance's issuance plan, the ordinary Treasury bonds will be re - issued on December 5, and the issuance scale will be known about one week in advance. The previous issuance scale of the Attached Interest 02 bond was 27 billion yuan, and the market is speculating that the issuance scale of the last issue of the Attached Interest 02 bond this year may exceed expectations, so the liquidity will improve. Historically, the issuance scale of the last issue of the 230023 bond was about twice that of the previous issue. Secondly, the market is speculating that the year - end issuance plan includes the Attached Interest 02 bond. Historically, special Treasury bonds have never been issued across years, but ordinary Treasury bonds have. As the end of the year is the final time point, as long as the expectation remains, the price may fluctuate repeatedly [5][11]. - Regarding which bond may become the active bond in the future, without considering other market sentiment disturbances, there are two time points worthy of attention: the disclosure time of the issuance scale of the Attached Interest 02 bond (around the end of November) and the year - end issuance plan of the Ministry of Finance. For the upcoming second re - issuance, if the issuance scale of the Attached Interest 02 bond exceeds expectations, its status as an active bond will be consolidated; if it is still small or fails to meet expectations, the Special 06 bond will continue to be the active bond, but the Attached Interest 02 bond may have an "active bond expectation" again by the end of the year. For the year - end issuance plan, if it is a re - issuance of the Attached Interest 02 bond, it may strengthen; if it is a new code, the pattern of active and sub - active bonds may not change significantly after the end of the year [5][12]. - For current operations, if choosing band trading, avoid 30 - year varieties; if choosing to allocate 30 - year varieties, both the Attached Interest 02 and Special 06 bonds can be held to hedge against possible spread fluctuations; if only adding a single bond in the short term, pay attention to the disturbances caused by the subsequent re - issuance scale of the Attached Interest 02 bond and trade in a timely manner [6][13][14]. 3.2 Bond Yield Curve Tracking - **Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes**: As of November 21, compared with November 17, the 1Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.56bp to 1.40%; the 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 0.57bp to 1.82%; the 30Y Treasury bond yield increased by 1.85bp to 2.16%. The spread between the 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds increased by 1.28bp to 34.10bp, and the spread between the 10Y CDB bond and 10Y Treasury bond increased by 0.28bp to 12.49bp [15]. - **Treasury Bond Maturity Spread Changes**: As of November 21, compared with November 17, the 3Y - 1Y Treasury bond spread increased by 0.23bp to 3.40bp, the 5Y - 3Y Treasury bond spread increased by 0.94bp to 15.59bp, the 7Y - 5Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 0.85bp to 11.46bp, the 10Y - 7Y Treasury bond spread increased by 0.81bp to 11.13bp, the 20Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread increased by 2.09bp to 34.09bp, and the 30Y - 20Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 0.81bp to 0.01bp [16]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation - **Balance of Inter - bank Pledged Repurchase**: As of November 21, compared with November 17, the balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased by 0.44 trillion yuan to 11.50 trillion yuan [19]. - **Change in Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: As of November 21, compared with November 17, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.27pct to 106.89% [22]. - **Pledged Repurchase Turnover**: From November 17 to November 21, the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase was 7.29 trillion yuan, and the average overnight turnover was about 6.48 trillion yuan, with an average overnight turnover ratio of 88.86% [23][24]. - **Inter - bank Funding Operation Situation**: From November 17 to November 21, bank funds for lending continued to rise. As of November 21, the net lending of large state - owned banks and policy banks was 4.09 trillion yuan, the net borrowing of joint - stock banks and urban and rural commercial banks was 0.22 trillion yuan, and the net lending of the banking system was 3.88 trillion yuan. The daily lending amount of banks first decreased and then increased. As of November 21, the daily lending amount of large state - owned banks and policy banks was 3.66 trillion yuan, and that of small and medium - sized banks was 0.32 trillion yuan. In terms of funding rates, as of November 21, DR001 was 1.3209%, DR007 was 1.4408%, R001 was 1.3877%, and R007 was 1.4952% [27]. 3.4 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration of Bond Funds**: As of November 21, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (de - leveraged) was 2.76 years, an increase of 0.02 years compared with November 17; the median duration (including leverage) was 3.00 years, an increase of 0.06 years compared with November 17 [36]. - **Median Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds**: As of November 21, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.89 years, an increase of 0.01 years compared with November 17; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.76 years, an increase of 0.06 years compared with November 17. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (de - leveraged) was 3.36 years, unchanged from November 17, and the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.57 years, an increase of 0.03 years compared with November 17 [39][41]. 3.5 Change in Bond Lending Balance As of November 20, compared with November 17, the borrowing volume of 10Y CDB bonds showed volatility [43].

科技巨头的最新举动，引发市场担忧！ 最近，美国科技巨头突然掀起发债热潮，亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet、Meta、甲骨文四家公司的发行量，就 已接近900亿美元。有外媒统计，美国企业今年已发行超2000亿美元公司债券，用于资助人工智能相关基础设 施项目。这引发了市场能否消化如此庞大供应的疑问，同时也加剧了人们对AI相关支出的日益增长的担忧。 上述担忧，也"空袭"了美股市场，触发美股自11月初以来的大幅回调。数据显示，11月至今，以科技股为主的 纳斯达克指数跌幅超过6%，标普500指数、道指分别下跌3.47%、2.77%。另外，美国科技七巨头指数下跌 5.73%，费城半导体指数大跌超11%。 个股方面，仅11月14日单周，超威半导体（AMD）的跌幅就超过17%，美光科技跌近16%，微软跌超7%，高 通跌超6%，亚马逊、英伟达跌近6%。 威灵顿管理公司投资组合经理表示："所有这些超大规模企业都在发债，市场意识到，为AI提供资金的将不是 私人信贷市场，也不会是自由现金流。资金将不得不来自公共债券市场。资本需要有个来源来为这一切融资， 但现在的情况是，人们认识到资金几乎需要从股市流向债市。" 美国银行证券分析师在 ...

Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - The September labor report is viewed positively, indicating a rise in the unemployment rate due to more individuals re-entering the labor force, with approximately 475,000 people coming back [2] - The report suggests that while there may be some softening in the labor market, it is not experiencing a significant downturn, which supports the Federal Reserve's current stance [3] - Market reactions show a decrease in the probability of an immediate rate cut by the Fed, with current odds at around 40% for a cut in December [4] Inflation and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rates due to persistent inflation issues, despite a stable labor market [5][6] - There is speculation that bond yields should be closer to 5% due to economic stimulus and investment, yet current yields remain around 4.1% [8] - The bond market is experiencing low volatility, attributed to a lack of major surprises from the Fed and a shift in investor interest towards bonds as a hedge against equity market fluctuations [9][11] Private Credit Concerns - The rapid growth of private credit is drawing attention from the Federal Reserve, with recent events such as the termination of the Blue Owl merger highlighting potential stresses in this sector [12][13] - The Fed is expected to collaborate with regulatory bodies like the SEC and FSO to monitor private credit more closely to prevent issues similar to the subprime crisis [13][14] - The opacity and illiquidity of private credit markets are causing concern among investors, impacting overall market sentiment [14][15]

Group 1 - BNY Mellon reports that Asian foreign reserves remain ample, with import coverage at a favorable level, indicating strong regional resilience against risks [1] - Goldman Sachs highlights a significant reversal in the relationship between the US dollar and the VIX index, suggesting a weakening appeal of the dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts note Nvidia's third-quarter performance significantly exceeded expectations, with strong growth in AI computing and data center revenues projected to reach approximately $500 billion by the end of 2026 [2] Group 2 - Action Economics indicates that the absence of continuous US employment data weakens rate cut expectations, with the Fed likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach for more evidence [1][3] - The US labor market is described as showing signs of slowing but not entering a recession, with small businesses facing the most pressure and job losses concentrated there [3] - The Fed remains cautious about rate cuts, with the next employment report delayed, limiting guidance for the December meeting [3]

1. Report Summary - On November 19, the funding situation eased, with major repo rates declining; the bond market weakened overall; the convertible bond market rebounded, with most convertible bond issues rising; yields on U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and the yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1][2] 2. Bond Market News 2.1 Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion euros of sovereign bonds in Luxembourg on November 18, with a subscription total exceeding 100 billion euros. The 4-year and 7-year bonds were issued at rates of 2.401% and 2.702% respectively, and all bonds will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Luxembourg Stock Exchange [5] - The Ministry of Finance advanced the budget for part of the central government's urban affordable housing project subsidies for 2026 on November 19 to support related work [6] - The Bond Connect's October 2025 report showed that northbound trading volume reached 572.3 billion yuan, and northbound swap trading reached 410.4 billion yuan [6][7] 2.2 International News - The Fed's meeting minutes on November 19 revealed significant differences among policymakers regarding a December rate cut, with many believing it may not be appropriate [8] 2.3 Commodities - On November 19, WTI December crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 2.14%, to $59.44 per barrel; COMEX gold futures rose 0.36% to $4081.10 per ounce; NYMEX natural gas prices rose 4.44% to $4.564 per ounce [9] 3. Funding Situation 3.1 Open Market Operations - On November 19, the central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate, resulting in a net injection of 115 billion yuan after 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [11] 3.2 Funding Rates - On November 19, as the impact of tax payments diminished, the funding situation eased, and major repo rates declined. DR001 dropped 10.64bp to 1.422%, and DR007 fell 1.08bp to 1.513% [12] 4. Bond Market Dynamics 4.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yields**: On November 19, the bond market weakened due to the rise of heavyweight sectors in the stock market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond active issue 250016 rose 0.20bp to 1.8070%, and the yield on the 10-year CDB bond active issue 250215 rose 0.15bp to 1.8695% [15] - **Bond Tenders**: Details of several bond tenders on November 19 were provided, including the 25 Attached Coupon Treasury Bond 20 (Reissued) and others [17] 4.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transactions**: On November 19, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Zhongjun 02," deviated by more than 10%, dropping by more than 75% [17] - **Credit Bond Events**: Several companies announced events, such as New World Development increasing the issuance cap of new perpetual bonds and Qiandongnan Investment being listed as a dishonest被执行人 [18] 4.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On November 19, the A-share market was divided, and the convertible bond market rebounded. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.24%, 0.21%, and 0.29% respectively [19] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Several companies announced events related to convertible bonds, such as Baolong Industry suspending trading of four domestic corporate bonds and Guangzhou Metro Group canceling the issuance of "25 Guangzhou Metro SCP011" [20] 4.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On November 19, yields on U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising 1bp to 4.13% [22] - **European Bond Market**: On November 19, the yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [25] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on November 19, price changes of various Chinese dollar bonds were reported [26]

Group 1 - A significant migration of funds is occurring from the bond market to the equity market, with bond funds facing large redemptions while equity funds are experiencing strong inflows [1] - Over 15 bond funds have faced large redemptions in November, prompting fund managers to increase the precision of net asset values [2] - The issuance of new bond funds has cooled, with only 6 pure bond funds launched in November, totaling 1.86 billion [2] Group 2 - Equity products are showing strong "capital absorption" capabilities, with several funds reaching their fundraising limits quickly [4] - As of November 18, equity ETFs have seen a net subscription of 48.47 billion in November, with sector-specific ETFs being particularly popular [4][5] - Since October, equity ETFs have experienced a net inflow of 143.62 billion, indicating a sustained interest in equity investments [5] Group 3 - Fund companies are actively launching new equity funds, with 103 out of 118 new products reported in November being equity-related [6] - Market sentiment is currently characterized by a lack of clear direction, leading to frequent fund rotation among sectors [7] - Long-term investment in equity assets is still considered valuable, with a focus on companies with growth potential and strong overseas market expansion [7]

1. Report Summary - On November 18, the capital market remained tight, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, most convertible bond individual securities fell, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declined, and the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [2] 2. Bond Market News 2.1 Domestic News - The National Bureau of Statistics released the unemployment rate data by age group for October. The unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) was 17.3%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.8% for the 30 - 59 age group [4] - Multiple "two - major" construction projects started recently. The State Council executive meeting proposed to plan and promote "two - major" construction in the overall situation of the 15th Five - Year Plan [4] - 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the central bank issued an implementation plan to encourage eligible science and technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market and support the bond issuance of consumer - related enterprises [5] - The Fourth China - Germany High - level Financial and Economic Dialogue reached consensus on deepening offshore RMB market cooperation and welcoming German institutions to issue panda bonds in China [6] 2.2 International News - For the week ending October 18, the initial jobless claims in the US were 232,000, and the continuing claims rose to 1.957 million. The government shutdown affected the release of key economic data [8] 2.3 Commodities - On November 18, WTI December crude oil futures rose 1.39% to $60.74 per barrel, Brent January crude oil futures rose 1.07% to $64.89 per barrel, COMEX December gold futures fell 0.2% to $4066.5 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.29% to $4.370 per ounce [9] 3. Capital Situation 3.1 Open Market Operations - On November 18, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net investment of funds on the day was 3.7 billion yuan [11] 3.2 Capital Interest Rates - On November 18, the capital market remained tight. DR001 rose 1.66bp to 1.529%, and DR007 rose 0.03bp to 1.524% [12] 4. Bond Market Dynamics 4.1 Interest - rate Bonds - The yields of interest - rate bonds changed slightly. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 0.15bp to 1.8040%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 fell 0.05bp to 1.8675% [15] - Several bonds were tendered, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [16] 4.2 Credit Bonds - Two industrial bonds had trading price deviations of over 10%. "23 Vanke 01" rose over 11%, and "H0 Baolong 04" rose over 37% [16] - There were multiple credit - related events such as debt reduction, companies being included in the list of dishonest executors, warnings from the trading association, rating adjustments, and ineffective bondholder meetings [18] 4.3 Convertible Bonds - The three major A - share indices fell 0.81%, 0.92%, and 1.16% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices falling 0.55%, 0.31%, and 0.78% respectively [18][19] - There were multiple convertible - bond - related events such as issuance approvals, conversion price adjustments, and early redemption announcements [23] 4.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the US bond market, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year yield fell 2bp to 3.58%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1bp to 4.12%. The inflation - protected 10 - year Treasury bond's break - even inflation rate fell 1bp to 2.27% [22][25] - In the European bond market, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yields of German bonds remained unchanged, while those of France, Italy, and the UK rose [26] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds showed different trends for different credit entities [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Interest - rate bonds**: From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 126.37 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 85.09 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 41.28 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funding prices rose. During November 10 - 16, 2025, the primary issuance of interest - rate bonds was 72.6866 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 39.0322 billion yuan. Most treasury bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 40.97BP to 40.36BP [1]. - **Credit bonds**: From November 10 to November 16, 2025, 935 credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 120.1412 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.8766 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 2.0711 billion yuan. Most credit bond yields declined [2]. - **Large - scale asset weekly observation**: From November 7 to November 14, 2025, most of the three major US stock indexes rose; European three major stock indexes increased; US bond yields went up; the US dollar index weakened, and non - US currencies were differentiated; crude oil and gold prices rose [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net injection was 41.28 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funding prices rose, and most exchange - based funds also increased [15]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 72.6866 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 39.0322 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased compared to the previous period [25]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - Most treasury bond and state - owned development bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spreads of both narrowed [32]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, 935 credit bonds were newly issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 120.1412 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.8766 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 2.0711 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. Most of the issuances were AAA - rated, and the issuance was mainly for 3 - 5 - year terms. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [43]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - Most credit bond yields declined. For urban investment bonds, the 1 - year AA - rated yield declined the most, and the 5 - year AAA - rated yield increased the most. For medium - and short - term notes, the 5 - year AA - rated yield declined the most, and the 10 - year AAA - rated yield increased the most [50]. 3.2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the credit bonds of 3 enterprises defaulted [54]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose - Most of the three major US stock indexes, European three major stock indexes, and most Asia - Pacific stock indexes rose [55]. 3.3.2 US Bond Yields Rose - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, US bond yields increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread changed to 44.00BP [58]. 3.3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakened, and Non - US Currencies Were Differentiated - The US dollar index declined by 0.26% weekly, and non - US currencies showed different trends [60]. 3.3.4 Crude Oil and Gold Prices Rose Weekly - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, gold and crude oil prices increased [66]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The macro - economic data in October verified the economic recovery path of "downplaying the aggregate and optimizing the structure". The bond market may remain volatile. Investors are advised to pay attention to the impact of the new fund regulations on the bond market. In the short term, institutional investors may reduce their allocation of pure bond funds and turn to bond ETFs or money market funds. In the long term, the new regulations are conducive to the stability of the liability side of bond funds. It is recommended to seize the band opportunities of interest - rate bonds, focus on high - rated and short - duration credit bonds, and pay attention to the Central Economic Work Conference in December [4].