Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the implementation of more proactive macro policies to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, aiming for qualitative and quantitative economic growth in 2026 [1][2] - The focus on domestic demand is reinforced, with a goal to build a strong domestic market, addressing the current issue of insufficient effective demand, as consumer spending in 2023 accounted for only 39.57% of GDP, significantly lower than global and regional averages [2] - The conference highlights the importance of innovation-driven growth, aiming to cultivate new economic drivers, with a focus on sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology to enhance productivity and address structural challenges [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy is set to be more proactive, with a focus on quality and efficiency, indicating confidence in the resilience of the domestic economy and a reduced need for extraordinary stimulus measures [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a certain degree of expansion, with a projected fiscal deficit rate between 3.5% and 4% for 2026, emphasizing the integration of existing and new policies to enhance economic governance [5] - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [6] Group 3 - The real estate sector is shifting from being an economic engine to a cornerstone of people's livelihoods, with policies aimed at promoting quality housing and new development models [7] - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, supported by ongoing reforms in investment and financing, contributing to wealth preservation and economic transformation [8]

证券研究报告|策略点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 供需优化，提质增效 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议点评 事件：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议贯彻了 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议对 经济工作的定调，部署 2026 年经济工作的八个大重点任务。 · "五个必须"，是目标也是手段。本次会议处于"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局的交汇点，在 肯定过去成绩的同时，新形势下会议提出"五个必须"为新一年的经济工作定下基调，"必须充分 挖掘经济潜能"指向充分利用大国优势培育更多增长点、释放发展潜能；"必须坚持政策支持和改 革创新并举"对应政策要"短长结合"，确保实现稳中求进；"必须做到既'放得活'又'管得 好'"指向要统筹好活力与秩序的关系，充分激发市场活力；"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密 结合"是对投资理念和方向的优化，突出改善民生的社会效益；"必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑 战"强调以内生的确定性应对外部的不确定。本次会议表现出更强的战略定力，强调当前经济发展 中的问题和挑战"大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决 ...

消息面上，中央经济工作会议于2025年12月10日至11日在北京举行，会议确定了2026年"八大"经济工作 重点任务，将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"置于2026年经济工作重点任务首位，进一步明确了提 振消费专项行动、城乡居民增收计划、扩大优质商品和服务供给、优化"两新"（大规模设备更新、消费 品以旧换新）政策实施、释放服务消费潜力等措施及政策的重要作用。 中银证券表示，结合会议确定的2026年重点任务，从社会服务行业的视角，预计内需主导是提振消费的 重要支撑动力。 12月12日，港股三大指数午盘持续走强，港股消费ETF（513230）涨幅持续扩大，现涨近1.5%，其持仓 股多数飘红，老铺黄金、名创优品、理想汽车、创科实业、蒙牛乳业、小米集团等涨幅靠前，仅古茗、 雅迪控股、中国儒意、统一企业中国等跌幅居前。 港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括老铺黄金、名创优品等新消费龙头，又包含腾讯、阿里巴巴、小米等 互联网电商龙头。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The debt cycle in 2026 will still be in the clearing stage, with the combination of fiscal and monetary double - easing policies continuing. The policy emphasizes "improving quality and efficiency", and the direction of risk resolution in key areas is clearer. The policy aims to maintain a reasonable economic growth rate and improve the quality of economic development, promoting the economy to move forward steadily on the high - quality development track [28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Situation and Tasks: Pressure Eases Marginally, and the Overall Plan Balances Domestic and International Aspects - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10 - 11, 2025, set the tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency". The meeting's view on the current economic situation has improved marginally, and it is expected that the GDP growth rate in 2026 will be around 5%. The policy may focus more on quality and efficiency, and the necessity of front - loaded policy implementation may decrease [3][12][13]. - The policy goals emphasize achieving greater breakthroughs in the "effective improvement of quality", with strengthening the domestic large - scale cycle as the top priority. The meeting also shows more attention to expanding domestic demand and is more cautious about external risks [19]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Regulation: Policies Improve Quality and Efficiency, and Flexible Interest Rate Cuts are Expected - The policy tone is newly established as "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency". It emphasizes the coordinated efforts of stock and incremental policies and better control of the rhythm of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. A new mechanism for managing expectations is proposed [21]. - Fiscal policy remains more proactive. The deficit rate in 2026 is expected to be about 4%, and the general deficit rate is about 9.8%, with a net debt - raising financing scale of 14.42 trillion yuan. Tax incentives and fiscal subsidies will be more strictly regulated [21]. - Monetary policy continues to be moderately loose. It is proposed to use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts "flexibly and efficiently", and "reasonable price recovery" is included in the policy tone. Monetary policy will continue to provide targeted support to key areas [21]. 3.3 Development Plan: Emphasize Domestic Demand - Led Growth and Rectify Involutionary Competition - In terms of domestic demand, a "rural and urban residents' income increase plan" is proposed for the first time, and unreasonable restrictions in the consumption field will be cleared. On the investment side, the focus shifts to the central government, with an increase in central budgetary investment to stop the decline [23]. - Industrial policies focus on scientific and technological innovation, with strengthened institutional supply and improved innovation chains. "Innovative science and technology financial services" are proposed for the first time [23]. - In terms of reform, rectifying "involutionary competition" is included in the reform tasks. The direction of fiscal and tax system reform is clearer, and the "reduction in quantity and improvement in quality" of small and medium - sized financial institutions is required [23]. 3.4 Risk Prevention: Real Estate Inventory Reduction and Orderly Debt Resolution - In 2026, risk prevention focuses on real estate and local government debts. The real estate policy will continue to emphasize "inventory reduction" with the principle of "implementing policies according to cities", and the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing is encouraged again [27]. - Regarding local debts, it is emphasized that no new implicit debts should be added illegally. The central government publicly names the operational debt risks of local financing platforms for the first time, and debt risks will be resolved in an orderly manner through market - based means [27].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced declines across major indices, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.04%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.23%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.83% [2] - The total market turnover was HKD 182.48 billion, with short-selling accounting for 16.27% of the total turnover [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 791 million, with Meituan, Xiaomi, and Agricultural Bank of China being the most actively bought stocks [2] Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for the upcoming year, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand, economic stability, and reasonable price recovery [4][5] - The conference highlighted the need for a proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, and optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [4] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and guiding financial institutions to support key sectors [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Meituan - Meituan reported a total revenue of RMB 95.5 billion for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 2%, slightly below expectations [7] - The adjusted operating loss was RMB 15.3 billion, with core local business losses significantly higher than expected, reflecting the impact of industry subsidies [7][10] - Despite short-term performance pressures, Meituan's long-term goals for its food delivery business remain unchanged, with a focus on maintaining high-quality orders [10] Group 4: Business Segment Performance - In the food delivery segment, Meituan saw a healthy year-on-year growth in daily orders, although revenue declined due to increased rider and user subsidies [8] - The flash purchase segment experienced strong growth in new user acquisition and order frequency, benefiting from a rich supply [8] - The hotel and travel segment also showed robust growth, with a nearly 20% increase in merchant numbers and user scale [8] Group 5: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for Q4 indicates a slight decline in core local business revenue, with expectations of reduced losses in the segment [10] - The target price for Meituan has been adjusted to HKD 120, reflecting a valuation based on future earnings and market conditions [10] - The management maintains a target of 100 million high-quality daily orders, indicating confidence in the company's operational efficiency and market position [10]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026, indicating a shift towards a strong domestic market [3][5]. Group 1: Domestic Demand as a Driver - Domestic demand is highlighted as the main engine of China's economic development, contributing 86.4% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [5]. - The average contribution of final consumption to economic growth over the past four years is 56.2%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [6]. - The focus on domestic demand is seen as a necessary adaptation to the new development stage, aiming to transform the potential of a large-scale market into real growth [6][12]. Group 2: Consumption Enhancement Strategies - The government plans to implement measures to boost consumption, including optimizing the environment, innovating scenarios, and reducing restrictions [7]. - A significant initiative is the introduction of a "rural and urban residents' income increase plan," aimed at enhancing consumer capacity and solidifying the foundation for consumption [12]. - Policies will focus on increasing disposable income through wage growth mechanisms, skill enhancement subsidies, and expanding the middle-income group [13]. Group 3: Investment and Structural Optimization - The conference emphasizes stabilizing and optimizing investment, particularly in urban renewal and the use of special bonds [3][8]. - The government aims to enhance the quality of investment expansion, moving away from reliance on external demand and real estate investment [6][12]. - The expected increase in fiscal support for consumption is projected to rise from 300 billion to 500 billion, with a focus on service consumption [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing from December 10 to 11 outlines the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a shift in policy focus from merely increasing efforts to enhancing collaboration and effectiveness in economic measures [1] Policy Framework - The policy tone has shifted from "promoting stability through progress" to "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" [2][3] - The conference continues to advocate for a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to stimulate economic growth [2] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain necessary levels of deficit and debt, with a focus on optimizing expenditure structure rather than aggressive expansion [3] Domestic Demand Strategy - The strategy to "build a strong domestic market" is prioritized, addressing the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand [4] - Key initiatives include optimizing the implementation of "two new" policies (equipment updates and trade-ins), establishing a plan for urban and rural income growth, and addressing the decline in fixed asset investment [4][5] Innovation and Competition Regulation - The conference emphasizes "innovation-driven development" and the need to cultivate new growth drivers while addressing "involution" in competition [6] - Specific focus areas for innovation include advancements in artificial intelligence, semiconductor research, and the application of digital technologies in manufacturing [6] - The regulation of competition is set to become a key reform task, with a focus on establishing a unified national market and addressing issues like price wars and local investment incentives [7] Real Estate and Capital Market - The policy approach to the real estate market has shifted to a long-term model focusing on controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply [7] - The capital market is expected to see deeper reforms, with a shift in focus from stability to enhancing market mechanisms and supporting new quality productivity [7]

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 社服视角学习中央经济工 作会议精神的体会 内需主导提振消费，民生为大谋办实事 中央经济工作会议（以下简称会议）于 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举 行，中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要 讲话。习总书记重要讲话主要总结了 2025 年我国经济工作，分析了当前经济 形势，部署了 2026 年经济工作。会议提出的五个"必须"是做好新形势下经 济工作新的认识和体会。结合会议确定的 2026 年"八大"经济工作重点任务， 从社会服务行业的视角，我们预计内需主导是提振消费的重要支撑动力，我 们维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 在学习习总书记重要讲话和会议精神后，我们对 2026 年及"十五五"期 间以社会服务为主的消费恢复及发展方向更为明确，对行业及企业的进 一步深耕与供给创新更有信心。我们建议关注三条主线：一是会议明确 的稳岗就业标的科锐国际、北京人力、上海外服；二是跨境消费需求提 振后有望进一步释放业绩增量的同程旅行、岭南控股、众信旅游、长白 山、黄山旅游；三是新消费场景与 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the Central Economic Work Conference is to prioritize domestic demand and build a strong domestic market through various initiatives aimed at boosting consumption and investment [1][2] - Emphasis on innovation-driven growth by fostering new momentum, enhancing education and technology development, and strengthening intellectual property protection in emerging sectors [1][2] - Reform efforts are aimed at enhancing high-quality development, including the establishment of a unified national market and deepening state-owned enterprise reforms [2][3] Group 2 - The strategy includes promoting coordinated development to enhance urban-rural integration and regional collaboration, with a focus on high-quality county-level economic development [3][4] - A commitment to green transformation is highlighted, with initiatives for energy efficiency, carbon reduction, and the establishment of a national carbon trading market [3][4] - The plan emphasizes improving people's livelihoods through job stability, education resource allocation, and healthcare reforms [4][5] Group 3 - The approach to risk management includes stabilizing the real estate market and addressing local government debt risks through various measures [4][5] - The government aims to encourage the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing purposes and reform the housing provident fund system [4][5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for effective strategies in international economic and trade struggles to safeguard national development interests and expand international cooperation [1] - The concept of "precise countermeasures" is introduced as a response to U.S. trade hegemony, integrating industrial balance, rule negotiation, and diplomatic coordination [3][4] - The article highlights the importance of "self-initiated openness" in countering unilateralism and protectionism, advocating for broader and deeper foreign openness [4][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the necessity of leveraging international rules and multilateral mechanisms to counteract targeted pressures from allied nations of the U.S. [6] - It points out the need for reform in international trade rules to address structural deficiencies and to shift from being rule takers to rule makers and leaders [7] - The focus on domestic demand as a primary driver of economic resilience is emphasized, with specific targets set for optimizing consumer goods supply by 2027 and achieving a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [9][10]