Group 1 - Tokyo's inflation rate shows signs of slowing for the first time in four months, primarily due to a slowdown in energy price growth and the Tokyo government waiving water fees for some households [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food in June increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly below economists' forecast of 3.3%, while the overall inflation rate decreased from 3.4% in May to 3.1% [1] - Electricity prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, significantly down from 10.8% the previous month, while gasoline prices fell by 1%, contrasting with a 6.3% increase in the prior month [1] Group 2 - Despite the inflation rate retreating, price increases remain above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, raising market expectations for a potential interest rate hike [1] - There are internal divisions within the Bank of Japan regarding monetary policy, with some members advocating for maintaining ultra-low interest rates to assess the impact of U.S. tariff policies, while others focus on rising domestic inflation pressures [2] - The Bank of Japan has lowered its economic growth forecast due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, complicating the timing of the next interest rate hike [2]

Group 1 - Japan's rice prices surged by 101.7% year-on-year in May, marking the third consecutive month of significant increases, following rises of 98.4% in April and 92.1% in March, indicating a severe food price crisis not seen in over half a century [1][2] - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.7% year-on-year in May, exceeding economists' expectations of 3.6% and April's 3.5%, reaching the highest level since January 2023 [1][2] - The inflation rate excluding fresh food and energy increased from 3% to 3.3%, suggesting that price pressures are spreading [1][2] Group 2 - The Japanese government has released emergency reserves to stabilize rice prices, which account for approximately 50% of core inflation [2] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% despite inflation exceeding the 2% target for 38 consecutive months, indicating significant pressure on monetary policy [3][4] - Japan's economy showed signs of weakness, with a 0.2% contraction in GDP in the first quarter, attributed mainly to declining exports [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Federal Court's block of Trump's tariff policy has temporarily alleviated market concerns about a "full - scale trade war," leading to a significant repair of market risk appetite. However, Trump may still restart protectionist policies, so policy risks need to be monitored [2]. - The domestic economy continues to show the characteristic of "volume up, price down" after the weakening of the policy pulse effect at the beginning of the year. Although export pressure has eased, domestic demand repair is weak, and the next policy observation window will be at the end of July [2]. - Various commodities have different trends. Precious metals are under pressure due to the decline in risk - aversion demand; copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level; aluminum prices are expected to oscillate; zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly; lead prices have limited downward space; tin prices may be weakly adjusted; industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom; lithium carbonate prices may correct the price difference; nickel prices are weakly adjusted; crude oil prices oscillate; steel and iron ore prices are weakly adjusted; and agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil also show different trends [3][6][8][12][13][14][16][18][21][22][23][24][25][26] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.04%; LME copper closed at 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars or 0.31% [27]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.27%; LME aluminum closed at 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars or 0.72% [27]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 0.89% [27]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%; LME zinc closed at 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars or 0.74% [27]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.71%; LME lead closed at 1,989 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar or 0.03% [27]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan or 1.93%; LME nickel closed at 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars or 1.85% [27]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,690 yuan or 2.91%; LME tin closed at 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars or 2.82% [27]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3,312.40 dollars/ounce, up 12.70 dollars or 0.38%; SHFE silver closed at 8,225.00 yuan/kg, up 8.00 yuan or 0.10%; COMEX silver closed at 33.10 dollars/ounce, down 0.29 dollars or 0.87% [27]. - **Steel Products**: SHFE rebar closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 0.54%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35% [27]. - **Iron Ore**: DCE iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [27]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On May 28, SHFE copper's main contract was 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; LME copper's 3 - month contract was 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,850 tons to 154,300 tons [28]. - **Nickel**: On May 28, SHFE nickel's main contract was 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel's 3 - month contract was 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars. LME inventory increased by 864 tons to 200,862 tons [28]. - **Zinc**: On May 28, SHFE zinc's main contract was 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME zinc was 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 143,450 tons [31]. - **Lead**: On May 28, SHFE lead's main contract was 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME lead was 1,989 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,325 tons to 291,050 tons [31]. - **Aluminum**: On May 28, SHFE aluminum's continuous - three contract was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; LME aluminum's 3 - month contract was 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 377,325 tons [31]. - **Alumina**: On May 28, SHFE alumina's main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day; the national average spot price of alumina was 3,289 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [31]. - **Tin**: On May 28, SHFE tin's main contract was 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,790 yuan from the previous day; LME tin was 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars. LME inventory increased by 20 tons to 2,680 tons [31]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices were mostly unchanged on May 28. COMEX gold's inventory remained unchanged at 38,814,647 ounces, and COMEX silver's inventory increased by 1,070,427 ounces to 498,373,208 ounces [31][33]. - **Steel Products and Iron Ore**: Rebar's main contract was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; iron ore's main contract was 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Other related prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [33]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke's main contract was 1338.5 yuan/ton, down 25.5 yuan from the previous day; coking coal's main contract was 779.0 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan [33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On May 28, lithium carbonate's main contract was 6.05 yuan, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day; the electric - carbon spot price was 6.3 yuan, down 0.08 yuan [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On May 28, industrial silicon's main contract was 7,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day; the average price of 421 silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [33]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: On May 28, CBOT soybean's main contract was 1048.5 yuan/ton, down 13.25 yuan from the previous day; the main contract of soybean meal was 2961 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2604 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [33][35].

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the Japanese yen is expected to remain supported due to recent inflation data and the divergence in monetary policy among major global central banks [1][3]. Group 1: Japanese Inflation Data - Recent inflation data from Japan is a key variable influencing the yen's performance, suggesting a potential for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates later this year [3]. - Despite a long history of deflation in Japan, the market has been cautious about the Bank of Japan's rate hike, with low expectations for an increase this year [3]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy Divergence - Most central banks in the G10 are moving towards lowering interest rates, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank continuing to cut rates to stimulate economic growth [3]. - In contrast, the Bank of Japan retains the possibility of raising rates, making its policy outlook unique amid a generally accommodative global monetary environment [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Currency Dynamics - Investors seeking stable returns and asset preservation are likely to favor currencies with appreciation potential, such as the yen, due to its potential rate hike [3]. - As the market increasingly anticipates further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the attractiveness of the dollar is diminishing, leading to a shift in investor preference towards the yen [4]. - The growing trend of selling dollars to buy yen is exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate [4].

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to decline, currently at 145.2130, down 0.28%, influenced by a weaker dollar index due to poor economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside rising expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - A recent survey indicates that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates until September to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, with slightly over half anticipating at least a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year [1][2] - The survey, conducted from May 7 to 13 among 62 economists, reflects the Bank of Japan policymakers' view that while U.S. tariffs have disrupted markets, they have not completely derailed efforts to gradually tighten monetary policy [1] Group 2 - 95% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged at the June policy meeting, with 67% predicting the benchmark rate will remain at 0.5% until September, an increase from about 36% in the previous month [2] - The implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate rose from a low of 9.5% to 11.3%, indicating increased demand for downside protection against the dollar, particularly beyond the three-month period following the U.S.-China tariff pause [2] - Technical analysis suggests that if the USD/JPY breaks below the psychological level of 145.00, it could lead to a decline towards the 144.55 area, with further support at approximately 144.30, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level [3]

Group 1 - The recent surge in spot gold prices has seen it break through the $3,360 per ounce mark, with a slight pullback following the peak, indicating strong market interest in gold as an investment [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a cooling of interest rate hike expectations in the U.S., a weakening U.S. dollar, and central banks globally accumulating gold as a safety net, which affects supply and demand dynamics positively [3] - The current market sentiment is volatile, and while short-term gains are evident, a cautious approach is advised for long-term investors, suggesting to wait for potential price corrections before making new investments [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment strategy, likening it to a marathon rather than a sprint, and encourages investors to focus on understanding market fundamentals rather than chasing short-term trends [3] - Future monitoring of global inflation data and geopolitical situations is recommended as these factors are considered significant variables that could impact gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the temporary pause in the Bank of Japan's monetary tightening cycle will increase selling pressure on the yen, shifting market focus back to Japan's low interest rate environment [1] - The expectation of reduced interest rate hikes is intensifying the risk of yen depreciation, as noted by Shoki Omori, Chief Strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo [1] - The cautious tone of the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding the positive interaction between wages and prices highlights the complexity of short positions in USD/JPY [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains its interest rate at 0.5% amid increasing uncertainty due to U.S. tariffs, delaying the timeline for achieving its inflation target [1][2] Monetary Policy - The BOJ extends its outlook period by one year, now including the fiscal year 2027, with core inflation expected to align with the 2% target around the second half of this outlook period [2] - The BOJ's forecast for core inflation in the fiscal year starting April 2027 is set at 1.9%, with inflation excluding fresh food and energy projected at 2% [2] - The BOJ indicates a readiness to tighten monetary policy further if conditions allow, despite recent economic growth forecasts being downgraded [2][5] Economic Growth Projections - The BOJ halves its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, reducing the GDP growth rate from 1.1% to 0.5% for FY2025 and from 1.0% to 0.7% for FY2026 [5][7] - The GDP growth rate for FY2027 is projected at 1.0% [5] Inflation Risks - The BOJ notes that inflation risks are skewed to the downside for the next two years, reflecting heightened uncertainty regarding trade policies [7][8] - Swap traders have delayed bets on interest rate hikes, with the likelihood of a rate increase by the end of the year now at approximately 39% [7] Market Reactions - The yen depreciated by 0.5% against the dollar, reaching 143.79, while Japanese bond prices rose, with the 10-year bond yield falling by 4.5 basis points to 1.265% [1] - The market is closely monitoring the BOJ's stance on future rate hikes, especially in light of geopolitical uncertainties and the recent strength of the yen [12]

Group 1: Japan Market Focus - The report highlights the commencement of tariff negotiations between Japan and the US, with potential concessions from Japan including LNG and military equipment purchases, and reduced agricultural import tariffs [11][13] - The report indicates that the Japanese economy's growth is expected to be driven by domestic demand, with a focus on companies with high domestic revenue, such as drugstore chains [19][20] - The report suggests that the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates in the second half of the year, with a target policy rate of 0.8%-1% by year-end [16][19] Group 2: India Market Focus - The report notes that India's overall CPI has dropped to its lowest level in nearly six years, which supports expectations for further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India [33][34] - The report emphasizes that India's economy is primarily driven by domestic demand, making it less susceptible to external trade policy impacts, and forecasts a stable long-term growth trend despite short-term cyclical slowdowns [40][41] - The report identifies Tata Communications and HDFC Asset Management as key investment opportunities, with Tata Communications expected to see double-digit growth in data services revenue [42][41] Group 3: Gold Market Focus - The report discusses the increasing global demand for gold driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the impact of US tariff policies, which are expected to support higher gold prices [54][57] - The report anticipates that gold prices could reach $3,337 per ounce by mid-2025 under neutral conditions, with potential highs of $3,620 and lows of $3,081 under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively [54][57] - The report highlights investment opportunities in gold mining and jewelry sectors, specifically mentioning Shandong Gold and Laopu Gold as potential beneficiaries of rising gold prices [58][57]

特朗普的关税计划扰乱了全球市场！ 预期的稳定性遭挑战 其实，特朗普的政策对于预期稳定性的破坏更甚于实质破坏。在特朗普宣布政策之后，各大市场都有剧烈反应，除 了股市，虚拟货币亦大跌，美元指数则上涨，VIX指数更是大幅拉升近6%。这些都是市场稳定性被破坏的证据。 事实上，市场对于关税的担忧已经酝酿了很长时间，但对于特朗普贸易政策可能带来的不稳定和经济破坏的担忧， 似乎在二月底才达到顶峰，并波及所有资产类别。 Pepperstone研究主管克里斯·韦斯顿 (Chris Weston) 表示，对近期关税新闻敏感度降低的市场必须重新考虑这种反应 功能。短期内的风险倾斜表明，下行空间还将继续。 虽然有所预期，但特朗普昨晚祭出的关税计划仍对全球市场造成了巨大冲击。截至目前，亚太股市全线杀跌，日经 指数、韩国KOSPI指数都大跌逾3%，恒生指数跌幅接近3%，恒生科技指数一度大跌近5%。与此同时，虚拟货币市 场持续暴跌，欧洲市场的期指亦是全线杀跌。 那么，此次关税计划究竟会带来多大的影响？A股和港股此前的牛市气氛是否也将被冲淡？美股多年的牛市是否也就 此终结？ 分析人士认为，从结构上看，近期美股杀跌的原因可能还不止特朗普的关税 ...