Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by government efforts to halt the decline and promote a healthy market environment [1][3][9]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a significant narrowing of the decline by 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][4]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing fell by 5.5% year-on-year, also showing a substantial narrowing of the decline by 19.5 percentage points compared to last year [1][4]. - The transaction volume of second-hand housing has increased compared to the same period last year, indicating active trading [1]. Price Trends - In June 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - The average sales price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month in June, consistent with the previous month [14]. Market Dynamics - The new housing market is gradually stabilizing, with first-tier cities showing strong performance in new home transactions, such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, which saw year-on-year increases of 11.9%, 42%, and nearly 17% respectively [5]. - The average sales area of new commercial housing in June was 10,536 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 49.38% [6]. - The inventory reduction efforts have been effective, with the unsold housing area decreasing by 479 million square meters by the end of June, marking four consecutive months of decline [6]. Policy Support - The government is expected to intensify efforts to stabilize the real estate market, with recent meetings emphasizing the need for stronger measures [9][11]. - Core cities have begun optimizing real estate policies, such as improving housing fund loan policies to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers [10]. Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a rise in transaction volume, but prices are under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.0% in first-tier cities from June last year [16][20]. - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to rising demand for housing upgrades and the need to sell existing homes [18][21]. - The overall transaction market for second-hand housing remains broad, with many provinces seeing transaction volumes surpassing those of new homes [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - **Stainless Steel**: Policy to address "involution - style" competition and eliminate backward production capacity stabilizes the market, and a slight reduction in July's steel mill production schedule also helps. However, high inventory and capacity pressure remain. With weak downstream consumption and high - cost dynamic decline, it will follow a weak fundamental pattern after short - term macro - driven sentiment fades, with an operating range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan [2]. - **Nickel**: At a low valuation, short - term industry policies support a bottom - stabilizing. Short - term focuses are on Indonesian mining policy changes and the US employment market. In the long run, the contradiction between profit contraction and capacity expansion will lead to large inventory de - stocking and capacity optimization pressure. The short - term price will run in the weak range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pure Nickel & Stainless Steel - **Basis**: The fluctuation amplitude weakens, and the spot - futures price difference narrows. Stainless steel prices are flat compared to last week, with futures at a 50 - yuan discount. Refined nickel prices dropped by 1,000 yuan, and futures are at par [7][9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the entire industrial chain is at a historical high. The nickel ore end has moderate inventory, while downstream nickel - iron, stainless steel, and refined nickel inventories are all high. The social total inventory of stainless steel is 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [10][11]. - **Production Profit**: Although prices are low and production profits are shrinking, some steel mills' processes still have profits [14]. - **Output and Export**: In June, production decreased but remained at a high historical level, and external demand was strong. Refined nickel's domestic exchange inventory has been transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is increasing. Stainless steel warehouse receipts are decreasing due to weak spot markets [17][19]. - **Domestic and Overseas Inventory**: Refined nickel's domestic exchange inventory is transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is expanding. Stainless steel warehouse receipts are decreasing due to weak spot markets [19]. 3.2 Nickel - Iron - **Price**: The price of high - nickel iron in the market is 905 - 915 yuan/nickel, a 5 - yuan decrease from last week. The nickel ore price at the mining end is firm, and the cost of Indonesian nickel ore has weakened [27]. - **Production Profit**: Overseas imported nickel - iron profits remain high, while domestic nickel - iron steel mills face pressure from upstream and downstream, with immediate profits showing full - scale losses. Indonesian nickel - iron profits have also decreased. From January to May 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.882 million tons or 24.3% [30]. - **Output and Import - Export**: In 2025, the import volume of nickel - iron remains high. From January to May, the total import volume was 4.516 million tons, with 4.404 million tons from Indonesia, a year - on - year increase of 25.6% [32]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediates - **Price**: The total inventory of chromium ore at national ports is 2.994 million tons. South African chromium ore inventory accounts for 85% of the total, a 1% increase from last week [36]. - **Production Profit**: The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel hydroxide has increased, and the immediate profit loss has intensified. The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans has also increased, and the production immediate profit loss has intensified [39]. - **Output**: The production of nickel sulfate from Indonesian MHP and high - ice nickel has increased [41][43]. - **Import Volume**: The import volume data of nickel ore, nickel sulfate, MHP, and high - ice nickel are presented in the report [47][49]. 3.4 Supply and Consumption of Nickel - **Supply**: The total supply of primary nickel in 2024 was 2.464 million tons, with a monthly value of 206,800 tons in a certain month. The total supply of stainless steel from China and Indonesia in 2024 was 4.581 million tons [52]. - **Consumption**: The consumption of primary nickel in China in 2024 was 2.5524 million tons [52].

Core Viewpoint - Feihe has issued a profit warning for 1H25, expecting a revenue decline of 7.9-9.9% and a net profit drop of 36-47%, primarily due to inventory adjustments and impairment losses on bulk powder [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - Feihe anticipates 1H25 revenue between 9.1-9.3 billion RMB, with a net profit of 1-1.2 billion RMB, which is below market expectations [1] - The company has initiated an inventory reduction strategy, aiming to lower channel inventory to below 0.5X, impacting sales performance in May and June [1] - The introduction of a 1.2 billion RMB fertility subsidy in the form of free formula milk has negatively affected revenue in the first half but is expected to benefit customer acquisition and future revenue growth [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For the full year, the company guides for low single-digit revenue growth, with expectations of double-digit growth in the second half due to recovery post-inventory adjustments and an increase in newborn population [2] - The company plans to initiate a share buyback of no less than 1 billion RMB and maintain a dividend payout of at least 2 billion RMB, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [2] - Profit forecasts for 25/26 have been revised down by 26%/16% to 2.87 billion/3.66 billion RMB, with a target price adjustment of 27% to 6 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 31% [2]

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/19 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/桶 | 75.14 | 74.84 | 0.40% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/桶 | 76.70 | 76.45 | 0.33% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/吨 | 633.13 | 625.63 | 1.20% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/6/18 | | 美元/吨 | 759.50 | 745.50 | 1.88% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/吨 | 888.00 | 884.00 | 0.45% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/6/18 | 元/吨 | 4914 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will show a strong trend, with PX having a view score of 1, PTA a view score of 1, and PR a view score of 1 [2] Core View - The international oil price fluctuates around geopolitical risks, and the recent significant fluctuations in oil prices affect the PX trend. Although the overall PX supply capacity has increased, the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still in a state of inventory reduction. The PTA market has a slight increase, but the supply will increase in the month, and the downstream polyester factories resist high basis prices. The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere, with stable and falling supply - side quotations. The polyester industry chain currently has an unoptimistic demand and generally fluctuates with costs [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 17, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $74.84 per barrel, up 4.28%; Brent crude oil was $76.45 per barrel, up 4.40%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $625.63 per ton, up 0.24%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $745 per ton, up 1.98%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $884 per ton, up 2.08% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,782 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; the settlement price was 4,750 yuan per ton, down 0.54%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,020 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; the settlement price was 4,956 yuan per ton, down 0.88%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 5,018 yuan per ton, up 0.26%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 5,020 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; the external price index was $651 per ton, up 0.77%. The near - far month spread was 206 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the basis was 238 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,776 yuan per ton, up 0.27%; the settlement price was 6,730 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,960 yuan per ton, down 2.41%; the settlement price was 6,922 yuan per ton, down 2.94%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $862 per ton, up 0.82%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $863 per ton, up 3.11%. The PXN spread was $258.38 per ton, up 6.82%; the PX - MX spread was $139 per ton, up 2.58%. The basis was 92 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,982 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.37%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,082 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the settlement price was 6,048 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market was 6,170 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 68 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in the South China market was 188 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, FDY150D, and short - fiber remained unchanged on June 17, 2025. The price index of polyester chips was 5,970 yuan per ton, down 0.83%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.07%, unchanged. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 83.80%, up 2.23%; of polyester factories was 89.99%, up 0.25%; of bottle - chip factories was 82.46%, unchanged; of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.33%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales - The sales rate of polyester filament was 31.00%, up 1.00%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 53.00%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester chips was 48.00%, up 7.00% [1] Important Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20. The international oil price fluctuates around geopolitical risks. The PX supply capacity has increased, but the medium - term inventory is still decreasing. The PTA market has a slight increase, but the supply will increase in the month. The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere [2] Trading Strategy - The PTA is in a high - level shock, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,782 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the intraday trading volume being 1.42 million lots. The PX is greatly affected by crude oil, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,776 yuan per ton (up 0.06%), and the intraday trading volume being 292,600 lots. The PR follows the cost, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,982 yuan per ton (unchanged), and the intraday trading volume being 54,900 lots. Due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the polyester industry chain is expected to have PX, PTA, and PR showing a strong trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in new home prices and a decrease in unsold inventory, supported by proactive financial policies and urban renewal initiatives [2][6][19]. Economic Performance - In May 2025, the national economy demonstrated resilience with industrial production increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and retail sales growing by 6.4% [3]. - The total import and export volume reached 38,098 billion yuan, with exports growing by 6.3% [3]. - The unemployment rate in urban areas decreased to 5.0% in May, indicating a stable job market [3]. Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in May reached 70.53 million square meters, with a 10% month-on-month increase, reflecting a recovery in demand [6]. - The average price of new homes rose above 10,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a shift towards higher quality housing [6][10]. - The inventory of unsold homes decreased by 715 million square meters, marking three consecutive months of decline [7]. Financial Policies and Support - A series of financial support policies were implemented, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [7][19]. - The M2 money supply grew by 7.9%, while M1 increased by 2.3%, indicating improved consumer confidence [4][5]. Construction and Development - The area under construction for residential properties decreased by 9.6% year-on-year, with new construction down by 22.8% [14]. - The new construction area in May was 53.48 million square meters, a 19% year-on-year decline, but the rate of decline is narrowing [14][15]. - The real estate development investment in the first five months was 36,234 billion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [19]. Price Trends - The price index for new homes in 70 major cities showed a continued stabilization, with the year-on-year decline narrowing [9][10]. - In May, first-tier cities saw a 1.7% year-on-year decrease in new home prices, with some cities like Shanghai experiencing price increases [9]. Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue stabilizing in the second half of 2025, driven by financial support policies and urban renewal efforts [22][23]. - The focus will be on managing inventory and enhancing the quality of new housing supply to meet evolving consumer demands [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the second-hand housing market is showing signs of bottoming out, with price fluctuations and trading volumes stabilizing, while the average negotiation space has reached a new low [2][20]. Group 1: Market Trends - In May, 44.9% of second-hand housing communities saw price increases, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a price adjustment phase [4][20]. - Core cities experienced a 2% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transaction volume, suggesting that prices are approaching a temporary bottom [4][20]. - The proportion of communities with rising listing prices was only 34.1%, while the percentage of communities with declining prices has been increasing month by month, reflecting the ongoing inventory reduction efforts [5][20]. Group 2: Price Indicators - The average negotiation space for second-hand housing in typical cities fell to 15.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, marking a new low since 2024 [11][20]. - The narrowing negotiation space indicates a convergence of price expectations between buyers and sellers, supported by urban renewal and special debt storage initiatives [11][20]. Group 3: Segment Analysis - High-end communities saw a significant price adjustment, with only 46% experiencing price increases, a drop of 12 percentage points from the previous month [16][21]. - The negotiation space for high-end communities is the lowest among all types at 12%, while the first-time buyer segment maintains the highest negotiation space at 18%, indicating ongoing price pressure in that segment [16][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is at a critical adjustment phase, with policy support and market recovery forces creating a resonance effect [21]. - The gradual alleviation of inventory issues and the enhancement of living value through urban renewal are expected to provide a solid foundation for price stabilization [21].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-12 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 态，盈利空间也持续不佳，直接影响了企业对原材料的采购意愿，在原料采购策略上表现得格外谨慎，仅 根据实际生产需求补充库存。中美贸易关系缓和，市场对贸易前景乐观情绪提振价格短期震荡偏强，但是 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 消费淡季，去库存速度缓慢，上方空间或受限。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13520 | -20 棉纱 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Minfang Group is acquiring commercial housing to be used as affordable rental housing, marking the first such project in Shanghai this year, aimed at revitalizing existing housing stock and optimizing housing supply [1][5][7]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition targets newly built residential commercial housing projects that are legally compliant and ready for delivery, with a minimum total construction area of 7,500 square meters [3][5]. - The project must be located in the southern part of Minhang District, with clear property rights and no legal disputes [3][5]. Group 2: Context and Background - This initiative aligns with the "Nine Policies" released last year, which encourages state-owned platforms to acquire suitable housing resources to enhance housing security [1][7]. - The approach mirrors practices in other cities, indicating a broader trend among local governments and state-owned enterprises to explore diverse models for inventory reduction and affordable housing supply [5][9]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The acquisition model allows for rapid transformation of acquired properties into affordable rental housing within 3 to 6 months, thereby accelerating the supply of such housing [5][6]. - Other regions, such as Zhejiang Province, have also begun issuing special bonds to support the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing projects, indicating a nationwide trend [9].

全球绿色能源理事会主席、协鑫集团董事长朱共山在6月10日的SNEC光伏展开幕式上表示，中国光伏 正处"四落五起"的临界点，今年下半年到明年一季度是光伏供给侧改革的关键窗口期。朱共山倡议政企 联动促出清 ，以"市场化兼并重组+技术淘汰机制+政策强制约束"去产能，通过"供给侧自律+需求端刺 激"去库存。 ...