地缘局势

Search documents
张尧浠:基本面利好已到顶峰、金价将延续宽幅震荡周期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 00:36
Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant decline, influenced by geopolitical developments and trade agreements, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [1][3][7]. Price Movement - On May 12, gold opened lower at $3294.82 per ounce, fluctuating between $3265 and $3285, with a daily high of $3305.91 before closing at $3234.72, down $94.13 or 2.83% from the previous close of $3328.85 [1][3]. - The price is expected to remain volatile, with potential support levels at $3160 and resistance at $3290 [3][12]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index showed strength, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also trending upwards, indicating a potential bullish outlook for yields [5][7]. - Upcoming economic data, including the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the U.S. CPI, could influence gold prices, with expectations of weak confidence potentially benefiting gold [5][8]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent developments, such as the U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement and easing geopolitical tensions, have contributed to the bearish sentiment in gold prices [3][7]. - Despite these agreements, concerns about economic growth and inflation persist, which may sustain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [8][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a significant weakening of bullish momentum, with gold prices expected to oscillate within a range of $2900 to $3400 over the next few years unless a new high is established [9][10]. - The weekly chart shows a bearish reversal pattern, suggesting that gold may remain in a weak adjustment phase until it can break above $3500 [10][12]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment suggests that gold will likely continue to experience fluctuations within a wide range, with potential for a downturn if it fails to reclaim the $3290 level [3][7][12]. - The long-term outlook indicates that as the interest rate cycle nears its end, gold's attractiveness may diminish, leading to a potential peak and subsequent correction [8][9].
郑眼看盘 | 关税消息乐观,A股、港股双涨
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-12 11:24
Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a broad increase on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.82% to 3369.24 points, and other indices such as the Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index rising by 1.70% and 2.39% respectively [1] - The military industry stocks showed significant strength, particularly in aerospace and shipbuilding, driven by optimistic expectations regarding China's military trade prospects due to recent geopolitical developments [1] - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in substantial progress, significantly lowering bilateral tariff levels, which is expected to positively impact market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index saw a slight increase during the Asia-Pacific trading session, accelerating its rise in the European session due to favorable tariff-related news, with a reported increase of approximately 1% by the evening [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated by 0.44% to 7.2080 against the backdrop of the US dollar's strength, indicating resilience in the Chinese currency [2] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities, particularly in export-oriented stocks that have been under pressure, as these are expected to experience a corrective rally following the tariff progress [2]
张尧浠:多空因素反复交错、金价维持宽幅震荡待走强
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 00:46
张尧浠:多空因素反复交错、金价维持宽幅震荡待走强 黄金市场上周:国际黄金冲高回落倒垂收涨,形态上,有一定的见顶看空预期,但也相对于之前遇阻3500美元回落的倒垂线的看空压力,也有一定的止跌 形态,再加上目前各向上排列的看涨支撑持稳向上,这则暗示后市将偏向区间震荡走盘为主,之后则再度选择方向。 具体走势上,金价自周初开于3239.69美元/盎司,便即刻录得当周低点3237.44美元,之后连续两日强势拉升走强转阳,但在周三高开录得当周高点 3437.84美元后,直接回落走弱,并又连续两日强势回落,收复前两日大部分涨幅,周五虽有近一步走低,但最终震荡回升收涨,减弱回落压力,令周线 收于3328.85美元,周振幅200.4美元,收涨89.16美元,涨幅2.75%。 影响上,先是受到技术止跌信号的买盘推动,以及美国拒绝了日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等关税的要求,并可能对进口药品征收关税,再加上亚洲买家 节后重返黄金市场,印巴局势升级,美国3月贸易逆差扩大至创纪录的1405亿美元等,助力金价持续走强拉升,冲击3400美元上方,录得当周高点; 之后,美联储决议保持利率不变,政策声明及鲍威尔讲话又偏向鹰派,市场对贸易谈判持乐 ...
重磅,关税大利空,黄金大跌!多头还有救吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 04:47
Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are heavily influenced by trade news and tariffs, with significant daily price movements observed, including a drop of $126 in one day [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced a significant drop of $126, with daily price movements exceeding $100 becoming common since April [1]. - The price of gold fluctuated between $3202 and $3414, with a notable drop below $3360 leading to a decline of $40 [2]. - The market is characterized by a "super sweep" trend, with alternating bullish and bearish pressures making it difficult for traders to establish a clear direction [3]. Group 2: Price Levels and Trading Strategy - The gold price has breached the $3300 mark, with expectations to test the $3200 level, which is a critical support area [5]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3320-23, with a potential for further declines if this level is not maintained [5]. - The strategy involves shorting at resistance levels while monitoring support at $3270-65 and $3240 [5]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - The U.S. dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark, indicating a potential for further rebounds, while the stock market outlook remains bearish [7]. - Recent trade news has provided short-term bullish sentiment, but the overall market is expected to face downward pressure [9].
张尧浠:贸易局势缓和、金价高位调整待下半年拉升见顶
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 00:53
具体走势上,金价自亚市开于3365.22美元/盎司,早盘先行走强,于10点时段触及日内高点3414.41美元,之后连续回落转跌,延续到亚盘尾触及3320美元 支撑后,欧盘整体反弹回升,但动力有限; 美盘开盘后,遇阻3360美元阻力,并再度走低,回落力度加大,于盘尾触及日内低点3288.63美元,之后有所触底回升,最终收于3305.77美元,日振幅 125.78美元,收跌59.45美元,跌幅1.77%。 但由于受到凌晨鲍威尔偏鹰派的言论观点,而限制了金价多头,并且,日内特朗普宣布与英国达成"突破性"贸易协议,美商务部长也表示,关注下一个大 国,希望与一个来自亚洲的大国达成贸易协议,中俄发布关于全球战略稳定的联合声明等,令市场贸易乐观情绪升温,再加上英国央行降息25个基点,打 压欧元,提振美元,推动美元指数日内止跌回升持续走强,金价则就此空头力量占据优势,最终回落收跌。 展望今日周五(5月9日):国际黄金开盘先行止跌回升运行,但技术上面临一定的短期均线压力,附图指标也有所偏弱,有继续回落的风险; 另外,美元指数开盘先行走强,日图走势已重回中轨和短期均线上方,布林线也向上扩散延伸,附图指标维持多头信号,暗示后市有望 ...
凌晨,美联储按兵不动,黄金继续上演极端走势!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 01:04
止损,永远是对的,错了也对! 死扛,永远是错的,对了也错! 横批:止损无条件! 如果没有交易原则,那么,一切技术等于零! 凌晨美联储年内第三次维持利率不变,美联储主席鲍威尔继续硬钢特朗普,对黄金而言构成利空!不过,美联储利率决议期间,黄金波动有限,主要因为特 朗普重返白宫后开启的全球"关税大战"成了市场的焦点,同时全球地缘局势云波诡谲,使得美联储影响力大打折扣! 经过昨天欧美盘折腾后,今天先看区间,重点3360区域支撑,上方重点3400区域压制。向下破位,行情进一步走空,关注回撤3325--3300大关;向上突破, 则看涨3420--3440,甚至冲击历史新高!操作上,3360-3400区间内高抛低吸不追单,打破区间则顺势跟进一波! 白银,窄幅波动,方向跟着黄金;昨天冲高33.3后大跌,接下来继续关注高空,短线32.2-32区域支撑先看反弹! 昨天央妈降息降准,以应对当前市场不确定性,似乎影响并不大。当前,市场不缺钱,缺的是信心!消费贷款助力经济也就罢了,连养老都需要贷款了,也 是没法说。 基本面上,地缘局势依然是焦点,印巴冲突牵动全球的神经;俄乌和谈难以达成,冲突随时进一步加剧;美伊谈判各有各的底线,也是死 ...
黄金期货沪金上涨 3月美国贸易赤字扩大14%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-07 07:10
Group 1: Macroeconomic News - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 14% increase in the trade deficit for March, reaching a record $140.5 billion, attributed to businesses increasing imports ahead of tariffs imposed by Trump [3] - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is scheduled to visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 for talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, indicating ongoing trade discussions between China and the U.S. [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized that any dialogue must be based on mutual respect and benefit, warning against U.S. coercion [3] Group 2: Gold Futures Analysis - Gold futures prices are currently rising, with the latest price at 802.84 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.79% increase, and a trading range between 795.60 and 809.36 yuan per gram [5] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified between 820-825 yuan, while support levels are noted between 760-765 yuan [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent conflicts between Israel and Houthi forces, as well as tensions between India and Pakistan, are contributing to increased safe-haven buying in gold [4]
黄金突破3360!帮主郑重解析中长线”稳涨密码“
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 05:50
Group 1 - The recent surge in spot gold prices has seen it break through the $3,360 per ounce mark, with a slight pullback following the peak, indicating strong market interest in gold as an investment [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a cooling of interest rate hike expectations in the U.S., a weakening U.S. dollar, and central banks globally accumulating gold as a safety net, which affects supply and demand dynamics positively [3] - The current market sentiment is volatile, and while short-term gains are evident, a cautious approach is advised for long-term investors, suggesting to wait for potential price corrections before making new investments [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment strategy, likening it to a marathon rather than a sprint, and encourages investors to focus on understanding market fundamentals rather than chasing short-term trends [3] - Future monitoring of global inflation data and geopolitical situations is recommended as these factors are considered significant variables that could impact gold prices [3]
“五一”经济|假期可低油价出行!今晚成品油调价搁浅,汽柴油每升约7元
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 09:22
Group 1 - The geopolitical situation is overall easing, and global oil demand is declining, while OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, leading to a higher probability of a price reduction in the next round of refined oil price adjustments [1][4] - Domestic refined oil prices have undergone nine rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "three increases, four decreases, and two stasis," resulting in a year-to-date decrease of 425 yuan/ton for gasoline and 410 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [2] - The recent price adjustment coincides with the "May Day" holiday, allowing private car owners to travel at lower fuel costs [2] Group 2 - During the current pricing cycle, the international oil price change rate has been narrowing, with the average price of reference crude oil at 64.82 yuan/barrel and a change rate of 0.65% as of April 30 [4] - Despite some upward pressure on international oil prices due to U.S. sanctions on Iranian liquefied petroleum gas and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies are overshadowing global economic growth and fuel demand prospects [4] - The next price adjustment window will open on May 19, with expectations of a price reduction due to the overall easing of geopolitical tensions and OPEC+'s stance on increasing production [4]
大宗商品周度报告:流动性和需求均承压,商品短期或震荡偏弱运行-20250428
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 11:13
大宗商品周度报告 2025年4月28日 黑色方面,钢材、铁矿石在前期强势上涨后出现调整,成材库存去化节奏减 慢,铁矿石盘面情绪同步转弱,双焦受原料补库力度减弱影响也震荡偏弱。政策 面稳增长预期依然存在支撑,但短期现实需求与宏观情绪脱节,导致黑色板块波 动加大。 能源方面,市场对全球经济放缓及需求疲软的担忧升温,同时美国成品油库 存回升、美联储偏鹰预期抑制了油价上行空间。尽管中东局势仍有不稳定因素, 但避险支撑逐步减弱,油价上行动能不足。天然气价格继续承压,受库存高企及 气温回暖影响,供需宽松格局未改。短期来看,能源板块情绪趋于谨慎,关注 OPEC+后续减产动态以及全球经济数据对需求端预期的进一步调整。 化工方面,聚酯产业链品种如PTA、乙二醇在成本支撑减弱下震荡回落,甲 醇、PVC等基础化工品亦受制于内需疲软和出口承压,盘面持续承压。尽管国 内稳增长政策仍在推进,但短期现实需求接力不足,化工板块陷入成本支撑减弱 与终端需求乏力共振的调整阶段。节后市场关注点将转向下游复工节奏、库存变 化及国际油价的指引作用。 农产品方面,油脂油料板块走高,受外盘反弹、供需预期改善及资金情绪回 暖带动。畜禽板块表现偏弱,消费提振 ...