Group 1 - The dollar index has retreated from recent highs, influenced by political risks surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for December showed an increase of only 50,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4%, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's short-term policy path remain divided, with some anticipating aggressive easing due to economic slowdown and political uncertainty [2][3] Group 2 - The Japanese yen has faced structural pressure due to domestic political uncertainties and a lack of clarity regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike schedule [2] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have led to a temporary return of risk-averse capital, providing marginal support to traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen, but not enough to alter its fundamental pressures [3] - The upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data releases will be crucial for guiding the dollar and major currency trends [3]

短线加速上涨后，关注调整后再涨！黄金支撑4550区域，4520区域，4480-85区域，然后4450-55区域和4400大关；压力4600-05和4625-30及4660-65。 白银短期阻力84美元，然后86-86.5和88.5-89美元；支撑81.5-81美元，然后78-78.5美元和75美元。 短线即将抵达目标区域附近，所以，日内操作上，短线杠杆产品多单出局，关注4600区域压制空一波，下来参考支撑企稳后继续多，金银同步。中线等非杠 杆产品，布局的多单持有，手里保持多头仓位。黄金中长线目标参考2026年行情展望5100-5200，然后5600和6100-6200美元，白银100-120美元目标不变。 本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；国际和国内价格换算方法，国际价格×汇率÷31.1≈国内价格！ 地缘局势紧张，美国委内瑞拉，美国和伊朗，黄金早盘加速大涨至4600美元关口，离周末视频分析位置4610区域附近只有10来个美元，白银测试历史新高84 美元区域。上周四文章和视频强调黄金依托4400关口布局多单，白银75美元下方布局多单，目前第一波金银多头目标兑现，接下来关注调整。 个人观点，仅供参考 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - PX is in a unilateral high - level volatile market, and attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differentials. PTA is in a high - level volatile market. MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term [1] - For PX, cost - end oil prices are rising, but the PX industry has weakened, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent sector rotation on valuation and positive spread arbitrage positions. For PTA, it is in a high - level volatile market, with rising processing fees on the 05 contract, expected increase in operating rate, and continuous de - stocking. For MEG, the medium - term trend remains weak, and monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **PX**: The previous day's closing price of the PX main contract was 7168, down 118 with a decline of 1.62%. The monthly spread PX5 - 9 was 88, down 26 from the previous day. The spot price was 886 US dollars/ton, down 13.67 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 363.88, up 7.92 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The previous day's closing price of the PTA main contract was 5086, down 64 with a decline of 1.24%. The monthly spread PTA5 - 9 was 60, down 16 from the previous day. The spot price was 5072 yuan/ton, down 23 from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 361.63, up 6.66 from the previous day. The current PTA load is 78.2% [2][3] - **MEG**: The previous day's closing price of the MEG main contract was 3846, down 33 with a decline of 0.85%. The monthly spread MEG5 - 9 was - 91, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price was 3698, down 15 from the previous day. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is at a high level of 73.9% [2][8] - **PF**: The previous day's closing price of the PF main contract was 6490, down 54 with a decline of 0.83%. The monthly spread PF12 - 1 was - 54, up 16 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The previous day's closing price of the SC main contract was 416.2, down 0.1 with a decline of - 0.02%. The monthly spread SC11 - 12 was - 1.1, up 1.9 from the previous day [2] Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel remain uncertain, with short - term potential supply risks continuing, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.77 dollars/barrel to 57.76, a month - on - month increase of 3.16%. ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 2.03 dollars/barrel to 61.99, a month - on - month increase of 3.39%. China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract fell 6.8 to 418 yuan/barrel and rose 6.6 to 424.6 yuan/barrel in the night session [3] - **PX**: The price of naphtha at the end of the session was weakly maintained. Today, the PX price declined, with the current PX valuation at 886 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars from the previous day [3] - **PTA**: There were no significant changes in the PTA plants in the Chinese mainland this week, with individual plants increasing their loads, and the current PTA load is 78.2% [3] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is 1, PTA trend intensity is 1, and MEG trend intensity is 0 [7] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Cost - end oil prices have recovered, and PX valuation has returned to a reasonable level. However, the PX industry has weakened, and attention should be paid to positive spread arbitrage positions and the impact of subsequent sector rotation on valuation [7] - **PTA**: It is in a high - level volatile market. The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk has risen to over 300 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is expected to increase. The overall operating rate will remain at around 78%, and PTA is still in the process of continuous de - stocking [8] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend remains weak, and monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. Although the performance of coal - chemical related products is strong, the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still at a high level. The supply pressure will improve marginally in the medium term, but it is difficult to change the situation of ethylene glycol oversupply in the medium term [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For gold, as funds quickly exit the market before the Spring Festival and the price correction is in place, the market may focus on the impact of US economic data such as non - farm payrolls on the Fed's policy and geopolitical disturbances. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For silver, long - position funds have significantly increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price to run strongly. The global inventory shortage may not be truly alleviated, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After exchanges like CME raise margins, the irrational upward movement driven by short - term capital sentiment is expected to end, leading to volatility reduction. Attention should be paid to the potential回调 risk caused by the rebalancing of the global commodity index, and in high - volatility markets, a light - position, low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1]. - For platinum and palladium, due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and relatively undervalued prices compared to gold, funds are driving value re - evaluation. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, as market speculative sentiment weakens and volatility narrows, and with a strong external market, platinum and palladium can be bought lightly at around the 20 - day moving average. Palladium is relatively stronger, and shorting the platinum - palladium ratio can be attempted [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 997.94 yuan/g on January 8, down 0.96 yuan or 0.10% from January 7 [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 18,450 yuan/kg on January 8, down 840 yuan or 4.35% from January 7 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 575.00 yuan/g on January 8, down 23.50 yuan or 3.93% from January 7 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 460.70 yuan/g on January 8, down 15.25 yuan or 3.20% from January 7 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at $4487.90 on January 8, up $20.80 or 0.47% from January 7 [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at $76.69 on January 8, down $1.29 or - 1.65% from January 7 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at $2282.60 on January 8, down $7.80 or - 0.34% from January 7 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at $1833.50 on January 8, up $16.50 or 0.91% from January 7 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at $4477.56 on January 8, up $21.49 or 0.48% from January 7 [1]. - London silver was at $76.97 on January 8, down $1.30 or - 1.66% from January 7 [1]. - Platinum spot was at $2267.45 on January 8, down $30.55 or - 1.33% from January 7 [1]. - Palladium spot was at $1780.26 on January 8, up $24.53 or 1.40% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 995.86 yuan/g on January 8, down 3.34 yuan or - 0.33% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 18,338 yuan/10g on January 8, down 1027 yuan or - 5.30% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold 9995 was at 580 yuan/g on January 8, down 26 yuan or - 4.26% from January 7 [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 2.08, down 2.38 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 112, down 187 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 0.00% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 10.34, up 0.69 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 73.40% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.28, down 0.01 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.70% [1]. Price Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 58.52, up 1.23 or 2.16% from the previous value [1]. - The SHFE gold/silver ratio was 54.09, up 2.31 or 4.45% from the previous value [1]. - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, down 0.02 or - 1.24% from the previous value [1]. - The GZFE platinum/palladium ratio was 1.25, down 0.01 or - 0.75% from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.04 percentage points or 1.0% from the previous value [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.49%, up 0.02 percentage points or 0.6% from the previous value [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, up 0.04 percentage points or 2.1% from the previous value [1]. - The US dollar index was 98.86, up 0.12 or 0.12% from the previous value [1]. - The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.9823, down 0.0112 or - 0.16% from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 97,653, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The SHFE silver inventory was 637,647 kg on January 8, up 84,218 kg or 15.22% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36,387,376, down 16,076 or - 0.04% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 442,479,414, down 3,257,982 or - 0.73% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19,345,676, up 16,280 or 0.08% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,180,871, down 5,093 or 0.00% from the previous value [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1,067, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16,215, up 115.60 or 0.72% from the previous value [1].

供应端来看，欧佩克+一季度暂停增产，适度减缓供应端压力，不过2025年累计增产幅度已然明显，叠 加美国与其它产油国的增产预期，油市供应端压力依然较大。 展望2026年全年，原油市场关注点依然集中在国际贸易争端、美联储货币政策、美国石油需求、欧佩克 +产量政策以及地缘局势等方面。 宏观方面，市场押注2026年美联储继续降息，提振市场心态，不过在降息路径不明朗、决策难度加大的 情况下，降息的利好提振影响或受限制。而且，特朗普关税引发贸易争端的弊端或陆续显现，通胀回 升、经济疲弱等将进一步影响金融及商品市场，油市持续承压。 产业方面，需求端来看，全球石油需求增速平缓，对油市支撑有限；美国石油需求稳健的利好，直至年 中才会对油市形成持续性支撑；当然中国经济稳健、能源需求前景乐观，一定程度提振市场心态。 2026年1月4日，欧佩克+产油国开会审议全球石油市场形势，八个主要产油国重申11月2日与11月30日的 会议决议，即因季节性原因暂停2026年1月、2月、3月的产量增量。2026年一季度主要产油国暂停增产 得会议决议，符合市场预期，对油市影响有限。 众所周知，欧佩克+作为油市供应端最主要的合作组织，其产量政策对油市的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG spot price fluctuated on January 7, 2026, with the ether - after carbon four market being relatively weak. The LPG market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally and the external market price is relatively strong, the domestic market's response is limited. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG disk. The increase in registered warehouse receipts also suppresses the disk structure. In the short - term, the fundamentals have both positive and negative factors. In the medium - term, the overseas supply is expected to continue growing, and the global balance sheet is still expected to have oversupply. The escalation of the geopolitical situation may lead to a tightening of LPG supply [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On January 7, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market, 4400 - 4460 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3890 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4080 - 4420 yuan/ton; East China market, 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4780 - 4950 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4800 - 4950 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 593 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 588 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. The RMB price of propane was 4582 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4543 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 586 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 581 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. The RMB price of propane was 4528 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4489 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton [1] - The domestic civil gas spot price fluctuated on the previous day. The ether - after carbon four market was weak, with prices generally falling. In East China, civil gas was stable, and industrial gas was weakly adjusted. Due to poor crude oil performance, downstream sentiment was cautious, upstream sales were average, and market expectations were weak [1] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [2] - Inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and option strategies: None [2]

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 8 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1 ...

黄金方面： 据相关新闻报道，当地时间1月6日，美国总统特朗普宣布，委内瑞拉临时政府将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油。该事件发生后，市场解读为局势可能会 出现缓和，在此影响下，金价自4500美元关口出现短线回落。 1月6日，丹麦、法国、德国、意大利、波兰、西班牙和英国发表联合声明，强调格陵兰岛属于其人民，只有丹麦和格陵兰岛才能决定自身事务。这是针对卢 比奥计划购买格陵兰岛的反击。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，美委之间的局势可能缓和，但格陵兰岛问题重回市场视野，这也反映出委内瑞拉事件的影响正出现连锁反应。受 此影响，金价短期回调，但长期仍维持看涨态势。 技术面分析：昨日收阳线。日线级别显示，金价处于高位震荡整理。1小时级别，价格回测60/120日均线，市场仍是上升趋势。今日下方关注4420美元的支 撑，上方关注4500美元的压力。 原油方面： 周二，原油市场在2026年全球供应充裕的预期与委内瑞拉原油产量不确定性之间权衡考量。目前评估马杜罗被捕事件对原油供需的影响为时尚早，无论委内 瑞拉是否会增产，2026年原油市场供应都将维持充裕。 美国政府对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，特朗普正推动美国油气公司重返 ...

今日周二(1月6日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于78.31一线上方，今日开盘于76.63美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报78.69美元/盎司，上涨2.77%，最高触及78.94美元/盎司，最低下探75.84美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 目前调整最低70美元大关，这里依旧是强支撑。受地缘局势影响，昨天白银再次向上冲击78美元后回 落，今日78美元依然重点；首先78压制还有回落，一旦突破将直奔次高点80-81区域，然后关注阻力情 况；短期75-74.5区域支撑，然后72区域。目前来看，白银在70美元以上时间换空间的可能性越来越 大。 路透/益普索周一发布的一项民意调查显示，三分之一的美国人赞成美国对委内瑞拉的军事打击，72% 的人担心美国会过度介入这个南美国家。 为期两天的民意调查显示，65%的共和党人支持特朗普下令的军事行动，而支持该行动的民主党人和独 立人士分别只有11%和23%。这项对全美1248名成年人进行的民调显示，特朗普的支持率为42%，为去 年10月以来的最高水平，高于去年12月民调的39%。该民调采用在线方式进行，误差约为3个百分点。 另外， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Trump's recent statements indicate a significant shift in the U.S.-China relationship, moving from a confrontational stance to one of cooperation, particularly in light of economic pressures and international dynamics [1][3][5] - Trump's acknowledgment of China's retaliatory capabilities suggests a recognition of the interconnectedness of the U.S. and Chinese economies, where unilateral pressure may lead to mutual losses [3][5] - The U.S. economy is currently facing challenges, and maintaining stable trade relations with China is deemed crucial for economic recovery, as tariffs have led to increased prices and public discontent [3][5] Group 2 - Trump's outreach to China is also influenced by recent geopolitical events, particularly the situation in Venezuela, where U.S. military actions have drawn international criticism and could lead to increased isolation for the U.S. [5][7] - The planned visit to China in April is seen as a strategic move to stabilize U.S.-China relations, which could help mitigate international resistance to U.S. actions and enhance its geopolitical standing [5][7] - The visit is viewed as a political strategy for Trump, aiming to create a favorable domestic economic environment while also boosting his political capital ahead of future elections [7]