Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For nickel, due to the cost - inversion of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and supply tension in the nickel ore market, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, considering the cost - inversion of Indonesian nickel - iron plants, potential price pressure on the ore end, and the maintenance plans of some stainless - steel plants, it is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 27, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 122,500 yuan/ton and closed at 122,170 yuan/ton, a - 0.55% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,308 lots, and the open interest was 29,331 lots [1]. - The night session of the Shanghai nickel main contract opened slightly lower and oscillated weakly sideways, while the day session oscillated and declined weakly, closing with a small negative line. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly [2]. - The nickel ore market was quiet. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipping was affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and had a strong desire to lower nickel ore prices. In Indonesia, the domestic benchmark price for nickel ore in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, and the premium was still under negotiation. Some Indonesian iron plants had the intention to cut production due to high costs [2][3]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 850 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 0 - 2,200 yuan/ton, that of imported nickel was 0 - 250 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,120 (- 130) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,998 ( + 1362) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, and some plants plan to cut production. Price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the nickel ore supply is tight. New transactions need to be monitored. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The unilateral strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 27, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,880 yuan/ton and closed at 12,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 98,902 lots, and the open interest was 92,426 lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract oscillated in a narrow range and consolidated throughout the day, closing with a small doji. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased [3]. - Similar to the nickel market, the nickel ore market was quiet, and some Indonesian iron plants planned to cut production. Some stainless - steel plants had maintenance plans [3]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures oscillated sideways. Most merchants kept their prices unchanged. Downstream demand was weak, and merchants were reluctant to sell at low prices. The supply pressure of cold - rolled products remained. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,150 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 385 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Similar to the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, and some plants plan to cut production. Price pressure may shift to the ore end, and new transactions need to be monitored. The maintenance plans of some stainless - steel plants may support the market. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate within the range of 23,000 to 23,500, with recent trading showing a slight increase of 0.4% to close at 23,381 points [3] - The mainland industrial enterprises' profits increased by 1.4% year-on-year in the first four months, totaling 2.12 trillion yuan [6][7] - The overall revenue of industrial enterprises reached 43.44 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [6] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Meituan's first-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with the CEO emphasizing a commitment to winning competition, resulting in a stock price increase of 2.1% [3] - Link REIT reported a total distributable amount of 7.025 billion yuan for the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.57% [10] - Link REIT's Hong Kong property portfolio showed a revenue increase of 1.5% despite a weak retail market, while its mainland property revenue surged by 29.7% [11][12] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Predictions - UBS maintains a target of 24,500 points for the Hang Seng Index this year, citing positive factors such as increased northbound capital inflow and strong earnings momentum [8] - The report highlights that reduced interest expenses for businesses and households could lead to increased consumption and investment, benefiting high-yield stocks like utilities and banks [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened slightly, suppressing market enthusiasm for long - positions. After the previous market recovery following the easing of the tariff war, the index faces significant upward pressure after reaching the level of early April. Currently in a policy vacuum period, the market will experience rapid style rotation in the short term, lack an obvious main line, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2506) at 3879.6, down 2.0; IH main contract (2506) at 2715.4, up 2.6. IF sub - main contract (2509) at 3807.6, down 0.8; IH sub - main contract (2509) at 2677.2, up 1.8. IC main contract (2506) at 5614.8, down 39.6; IC sub - main contract (2509) at 5426.2, down 30.0. IM main contract (2506) at 5950.0, down 48.6; IM sub - main contract (2509) at 5708.2, down 46.8 [2]. - Various spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. have different changes, with most showing a downward trend [2]. - Differences between quarterly and current contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different upward or downward trends [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,029.00, up 48.0; IH top 20 net position is - 10,765.00, down 37.0. IC top 20 net position is - 11,129.00, down 403.0; IM top 20 net position is - 31,392.00, down 988.0 [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 at 3913.87, down 2.5; IF main contract basis at - 34.3, up 0.9. SSE 50 at 2733.63, up 5.2; IH main contract basis at - 18.2, down 2.4. CSI 500 at 5703.28, down 54.6; IC main contract basis at - 88.5, up 13.8. CSI 1000 at 6066.10, down 66.1; IM main contract basis at - 116.1, up 15.5 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) at 10,241.23, down 97.50. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) at 18,058.58, up 45.23. North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) at 1224.22, down 138.00. Repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) at - 3570.0, up 4480.0. Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) at - 120.26 and - 246.33 respectively [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) at 48.72, down 21.40. Shibor (daily, %) at 1.452, down 0.054. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2506) at 37.00, down 10.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) at 13.40, up 0.10. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2506) at 76.60, up 12.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) at 13.67, up 0.37. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) at 9.72, up 0.24. Volume PCR (%) at 70.50, down 9.56; Position PCR (%) at 68.31, down 1.62 [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares at 4.70, down 1.80; Technical aspect at 4.90, down 2.10; Capital aspect at 4.50, down 1.40 [2]. Industry News - From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic industrial enterprise profits above designated size accelerated further compared with the previous month, but the operating profit margin declined due to rising operating costs. Although industrial enterprise profits increased, the decline in profit margin had a certain negative impact on market sentiment. In April, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social retail sales of enterprises above designated size all declined compared with the previous values. The domestic economy faces certain pressure under tariff shocks [2]. Key Events to Watch - May 28, 10:00: New Zealand central bank interest rate decision. - May 29, 2:00: Minutes of the Federal Reserve's May monetary policy meeting. - May 30, 20:30: US April PCE and core PCE. - May 31, 9:30: China's May official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI [3].

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, industrial enterprises experienced a revenue decline of 2.6% while profits increased by 3%, indicating a recovery in profit margins despite a high base from the previous year [1][6]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue growth of industrial enterprises fell to 2.6% in April, primarily due to a high production level drop and increased price pressures [1][12]. - Profit growth for industrial enterprises rose to 3% in April, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with the growth rate exceeding the median of the past five years [1][6]. - The cost of goods sold per 100 yuan of revenue was 85.54 yuan, with expenses at 8.28 yuan, reflecting a decrease in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates [12]. Inventory and Operational Efficiency - The nominal inventory growth rate for industrial enterprises decreased to 3.9% in April, while the actual inventory growth rate remained stable at 6.8% after excluding price factors [4][13]. - The production and sales ratio for enterprises improved significantly, rising from historical lows to median levels, indicating a marginal improvement in operational pressure [3][13]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech manufacturing, saw a notable acceleration in profit growth, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth in the first four months of the year [3][9]. - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9% year-on-year in the first four months, with significant contributions from the semiconductor and smart product manufacturing sectors [3][9]. Future Outlook - The current external uncertainties pose risks to the stability of profit recovery, with expectations for further implementation of growth-stabilizing policies [1][3].

1 — 4 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 21170.2 亿元，同比增长 1.4% （按可 比口径计算，详见附注二）。 1 — 4 月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额 7022.8 亿元，同比下降 4.4% ；股份制企业实现利润总额 15596.4 亿元，增长 1.1% ；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利 润总额 5429.2 亿元，增长 2.5% ；私营企业实现利润总额 5706.8 亿元，增长 4.3% 。 1 — 4 月份，采矿业实现利润总额 2875.0 亿元，同比下降 26.8% ；制造业实现利润总额 15549.3 亿元，增长 8.6% ；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额 2745.8 亿 元，增长 4.4% 。 4 月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0% 。 来源： 统计微讯 1 — 4 月份，主要行业利润情况如下：农副食品加工业利润同比增长 45.6% ，有色金属 冶炼和压延加工业增长 24.5% ，电气机械和器材制造业增长 15.4% ，专用设备制造业增长 13.2% ，通用设备制造业增长 11.7% ，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长 11.6% ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China showed a slight increase in the first four months of the year, indicating a mixed performance across different sectors and ownership types [1][7]. Group 1: Profit Performance - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 21,170.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1]. - State-owned enterprises reported a profit of 7,022.8 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, while joint-stock enterprises saw a profit of 15,596.4 billion yuan, up 1.1% [1]. - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises achieved a profit of 5,429.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%, and private enterprises reported a profit of 5,706.8 billion yuan, up 4.3% [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The mining industry experienced a significant profit decline of 26.8%, while the manufacturing sector saw an 8.6% profit increase [2]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the agricultural and sideline food processing industry at 45.6%, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry at 24.5% [2]. - The power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry reported a profit increase of 4.4% [2]. Group 3: Revenue and Costs - The total operating revenue for industrial enterprises above designated size was 434,400 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, with operating costs rising by 3.4% to 371,600 billion yuan [3]. - The operating profit margin was recorded at 4.87%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Financial Health - As of the end of April, total assets of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 181,350 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, while total liabilities grew by 5.7% to 104,620 billion yuan [4]. - The equity of these enterprises totaled 76,720 billion yuan, up 4.7%, with an asset-liability ratio of 57.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 5: Accounts and Inventory - Accounts receivable amounted to 25,860 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, while finished goods inventory was 6,610 billion yuan, up 3.9% [5]. - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.3 days, up by 4.0 days year-on-year [6].

1—4月份，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润总额169.2亿元。 1—4月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同比增长1.4%。 1—4月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额7022.8亿元，同比下降4.4%；股份制企业实现利润总额15596.4亿元， 增长1.1%；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利润总额5429.2亿元，增长2.5%；私营企业实现利润总额5706.8亿元，增长4.3%。 1—4月份，采矿业实现利润总额2875.0亿元，同比下降26.8%；制造业实现利润总额15549.3亿元，增长8.6%；电力、热力、燃气及水 生产和供应业实现利润总额2745.8亿元，增长4.4%。 1—4月份，主要行业利润情况如下：农副食品加工业利润同比增长45.6%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长24.5%，电气机械和器材 制造业增长15.4%，专用设备制造业增长13.2%，通用设备制造业增长11.7%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长11.6%，电 力、热力生产和供应业增长5.6%，纺织业增长3.7%，非金属矿物制品业下降1.6%，化学原料和化学制品制造业下降4.4%，汽车制造 业下降5.1%， ...

Economic Overview - The overall trend of China's economy remains positive, with recent financial data indicating sustained growth in monetary aggregates and support for the real economy [3][4]. - As of the end of April, the M2 (broad money) balance grew by 8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous month, influenced by low base effects from last year and effective counter-cyclical adjustments by the central bank [3]. Financial Indicators - In the first four months of the year, the social financing scale stock, broad money M2, and RMB loan growth rates were 8.7%, 8%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding the nominal GDP growth rate, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 2.7% year-on-year [3]. Industrial Performance - In the first quarter, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a year-on-year decline of 3.3% to a growth of 0.8%, driven by the continued release of policy effects [4]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant profit support, contributing to the overall improvement in industrial economic quality and efficiency [4].

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [3] - The primary industry added value was 1.1713 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year; the secondary industry added value was 11.1903 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 19.5142 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.3% [3] Financial Data - As of April 2025, the M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating effective monetary policy and financial support for the economy [4] - The social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth rates were 8.7%, 8%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding nominal GDP growth, demonstrating strong financial support for the real economy [4] Price Indices - In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [4] - The core CPI showed stable growth, and some industrial prices continued to improve year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in market demand [4] Industrial Profit - In the first quarter of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a 3.3% decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase, driven by policy effects and significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [5]

2025年1—3月份全国规模以上工业企业利润增长0.8% 1—3月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额15093.6亿元，同比增长0.8%（按可比口径计算）。 1—3月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额5599.5亿元，同比下降1.4%；股份制企业实 现利润总额11101.5亿元，增长0.1%；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利润总额3883.5亿元，增长2.8%；私营企业 实现利润总额3709.7亿元，下降0.3%。 1—3月份，采矿业实现利润总额2204.4亿元，同比下降25.5%；制造业实现利润总额10826.4亿元，增长 7.6%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额2062.8亿元，增长5.4%。 1—3月份，主要行业利润情况如下：农副食品加工业利润同比增长40.3%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增 长33.6%，专用设备制造业增长14.2%，通用设备制造业增长9.5%，电气机械和器材制造业增长7.5%，纺织业 增长7.1%，电力、热力生产和供应业增长6.1%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长3.2%，化学原料和 化学制品制造业下降0.4%，石油和天然气开采业下降3.1%， 汽车制造业 ...