Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [7] Core Viewpoints - High inventory pressure is evident, leading to a further decline in coal prices. As of May 9, coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 33.051 million tons, up 6.50% month-on-month and 42.15% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period [2][5] - The recent week saw a downward trend in port coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal closing price averaging 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) compared to the previous week, indicating that downstream pressure is greater than upstream [3][5] - The report suggests that short-term stabilization of coal prices may require a recovery in demand, recommending a defensive approach towards the current sector, particularly favoring companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price (5500 kcal weekly average) was 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) for the week of May 5-9 [3] - The average price of thermal mixed coal at the Yulin pit in Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 510 RMB/ton, down 6 RMB/ton (-1.21%) [3] Inventory Levels - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.53 million tons, up 8.03% month-on-month and 56.22% year-on-year, also at a record high for the same period [5] - The report highlights that the inventory levels at independent coking plants and sample steel mills are currently at low levels [5] Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 62.4%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month and 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [4] - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 92.09%, up 0.09 percentage points month-on-month and 4.42 percentage points year-on-year, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.457 million tons, reflecting a slight increase [4] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, all rated as "Accumulate" [6] - China Shenhua's EPS for 2024 is projected at 2.95 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13 [6]

【现货】据Mysteel，截至5月8日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格13050元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧价 格13100元/吨，日环比持平；基差515元/吨，日环比上涨5元/吨。 【原料】菲律宾部分矿山6月资源已售，在1.4%FOB43成交；印尼5月一期镍矿内贸升水去至+26- 27，二期内贸基价预计上涨，雨季影响下镍矿供应仍偏紧。印尼政府新的税收政策落地，镍产品特许权 使用费增加了对镍金属的1.5%的税费。镍铁价格松动，铁价格承压下跌，最新主流钢厂在940元/镍（到 厂含税），铁厂暂停报价。 【供应】据Mysteel统计，5月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢预计排产348.99万吨，月环比减少0.4%，同比增加 5.8%；其中300系177.6万吨，环比减少2.6%，同比增加7.5%。4月不锈钢粗钢产量350.25万吨，300系产 量182.43万吨。 【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面维持窄幅波动，现货价格基本持稳，现货采买意愿不强，商家在市场需求偏淡 以及库存压力之下价格调整幅度不大。宏观方面，近期关税问题淡化，市场对美国与各方谈判保持观 望，政策仍有不确定性因素，但情绪基本已经修复。近期矿端价格相对坚挺，铬矿现货源紧 ...

红枣属于季产年销品种，需求跟随价格变动弹性较大。2024/2025年度红枣大幅丰产，供应充足，为红 枣价格的持续下行奠定基础。 新季红枣上市初始，枣农挺价惜售，但受限于下游承接力较弱，销量及利润不佳，买卖双方互相博弈。 叠加红枣下树时间较晚，销售期缩短使得枣农挺价心态被削弱，开秤价高开低走，期货价格也随之不断 下行。 直到春节旺季，红枣消费增加，使得价格出现反弹。然而，今年的旺季较去年缩短20天，因此对价格的 提振幅度有限。春节后红枣消费逐步进入淡季，且随着天气转暖，红枣进入冷库的时间逼近，一般货价 格开始松动，期货价格继续震荡寻底。4月，中美贸易摩擦升级，但我国红枣出口极少，价格走势主要 取决于自身供需面，因此受宏观扰动影响小。当前，红枣市场供应压力持续加大，销区消费较弱，且随 着温度升高，时令鲜果供应不断增加，进一步抑制红枣需求。供强需弱下，期货价格继续探底。 从供给端来看，2024/2025年度新疆灰枣产量达70万吨，与去年相比增加37万吨。观察历年数据可知， 当灰枣产量处于60万～65万吨时已属于丰产季，而2024/2025年度高达70万吨的产量无疑进一步加剧市 场的供应压力。 此外，天气因素对新季红 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market currently has strong real - world fundamentals and rising macro - optimistic expectations, which support the lower limit of finished products. However, the weak demand expectation and the tendency of new orders to decline limit the upward space of the futures market. Without unexpected positive news, the futures market may fluctuate in the near term [3]. - The iron ore market is trading on the expectation of future demand rather than the current situation of strong supply and demand. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the weakening of exports may intensify industrial chain contradictions [17]. - The coal - coke market is in a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. In the long - term, due to coal supply guarantee and crude steel reduction expectations, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. Although the pressure of high supply of silicon manganese has been alleviated, supply still exceeds demand compared with weak downstream demand. The production of silicon iron has increased slightly this week, and the large increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the rise of the futures price [54]. - The soda ash market is expected to have more maintenance in May, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3126, 3048, and 3098 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3239, 3200, and 3217 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were between 3180 - 3344 yuan/ton on May 7, 2025 [9]. Market Analysis - From a macro - industrial perspective, Sino - US trade negotiations seem to have new progress, and the macro - optimistic expectation has risen. The real - world fundamentals are strong, but the future demand expectation is weak, and the market may face pressure from weakening demand and falling raw material costs [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 681, 768, and 708 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao, such as PB powder, were also provided [18]. Market Analysis - The current supply and demand of iron ore are both strong, but the market is trading on future expectations. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the negative feedback pressure on steel mills to reduce production is increasing [17]. Coal - Coke Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs and basis in different regions and contracts were provided, as well as the coking profit on the futures market [35]. Market Analysis - In the short - term, the supply and demand of coal - coke are both strong. In the long - term, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. Ferroalloy Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the silicon iron and silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided, as well as the prices of related raw materials and the number of warehouse receipts [55][56]. Market Analysis - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. The supply of silicon manganese still exceeds demand, and the increase in silicon iron production and warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [54]. Soda Ash Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the soda ash futures prices, spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided [71][72]. Market Analysis - In May, there are expected to be more maintenance activities, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. Glass Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the glass futures prices, spreads, and basis in different regions were provided, as well as the daily sales data in different regions [98][99]. Market Analysis - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96].

文字早评 2025/05/06 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.23%，创指+0.83%，科创 50+0.85%，北证 50+2.96%，上证 50-0.47%，沪深 300-0.12%， 中证 500+0.48%，中证 1000+0.79%，中证 2000+1.29%，万得微盘+1.41%。两市合计成交 11693 亿，较上 一日+1472 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、商务部：美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来，对此，中方正在评估。节日期间离岸人民币大涨。 2、据新华社，"五一"假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 6.3%。 3、美国 4 月非农就业人口增长 17.7 万人，大幅好于预期。 资金面：融资额-13.51 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+21.90bp 至 1.7600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.54bp 至 3.0966%，十年期国债利率+0.03bp 至 1.6279%，信用利差-1.57bp 至 147bp；美国 10 年期利率+8.00bp 至 4.33%，中美利差-7.97bp 至-270bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.21，中证 500: ...

Report Information - Report Date: April 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The industrial silicon futures market is in a weak position with the main contract price breaking through support levels. The spot price continues to decline slightly. The market is mainly driven by its commodity attributes due to low macro - policy attention. The fundamentals have remained weak since early April, with high supply, decreasing demand, and high inventory. The imbalance between supply and demand has not reversed, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term without room for a rebound [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures (Si2505) closed at 9,785 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The trading volume was 122,687 lots, and the open interest was 220,162 lots, with a net decrease of 9,139 lots [4] 3.2. Spot Price - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline slightly. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 9,600 yuan/ton. The price of 421 in Sichuan was 10,850 yuan/ton, 10,350 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 10,400 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, and 10,900 yuan/ton in Xinjiang [4] 3.3. Market Outlook - Since the end of March, the industrial silicon market has been mainly driven by its commodity attributes. From early April to now, the fundamentals have remained weak. The minimum weekly output for supply - demand balance should be 63,000 tons, but the current weekly output is around 72,000 tons. The monthly demand is decreasing, with polysilicon production stable but most enterprises reducing production, and organic silicon enterprises collectively cutting production to support prices, resulting in monthly demand shrinking to about 100,000 tons. High inventory is also a major factor suppressing the rebound. As of the third week of April, the inventory was 756,455 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased to 2.44. The imbalance between supply and demand has not significantly reversed, and improvement depends on the negative feedback of losses on the supply side. The decline in spot prices has opened up downward space for the futures market, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [5] 3.4. Market News - On April 21, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 70,215 lots, a net decrease of 146 lots from the previous trading day. In the third week of April, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,030 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68%. The inventory in the third week of April was 407,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 116.28% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The inventory pressure in the upstream and midstream persists, continuing to test the demand [2] - For glass, the actual cold - repair production lines in the first quarter were slightly lower than expected, and the ignition rhythm was relatively fast. The market still has differences on long - term demand. For the 05 contract, the game continues. As the delivery approaches, the price trend is close to Hubei, the price low - lying area. Attention should be paid to the spot changes and production - sales situation in mid - to late April [4] - For纯碱, although there may be short - term maintenance that causes periodic fluctuations in production, it does not affect the overall supply - demand pattern. The market remains in the consensus of medium - to long - term oversupply expectations, and the inventory is at a historical high with obvious pressure [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The current daily melting volume is 158,000 tons, remaining stable. In April, there was 1 new ignition production line, Hebei Great Wall Line 4 with a daily output of 700 tons (ignited on April 12, as planned) [3] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 65.203 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 554,000 heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84%, and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The inventory days are 29.2 days, a decrease of 0.3 days compared with the previous period. It has been in the fourth week of continuous inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction slope has narrowed. The production - sales rate weakened significantly in the second half of the week, which may be related to the weather. The average weekly overall production - sales rate is around 105. Currently, the spot - futures inventory in Shahe is about 160,000 - 170,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is relatively high [3] Profit - According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are as follows: - 176 yuan for natural gas, + 117 yuan for coal - made gas, and + 26 yuan for petroleum coke [3] Demand - As of March 31, the national deep - processing order days are 8.2 days (+ 0.2 days), a month - on - month increase of 2.5%, and a year - on - year decrease of 33.3%; the deep - processing raw material inventory is 9.8 days (+ 1.2 days), a month - on - month increase of 14%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.0% [3] Strategy - The delivery factory warehouse of glass expanded by 100,000 tons within the week. Seasonally, the production - sales data performed well around the Tomb - sweeping Festival. Currently, the upstream and mid - stream inventories are not low, and there is still pressure on shipments. It is necessary to verify the improvement degree of real demand. From the production and inventory, the apparent demand of float glass from January to March is expected to decline by 7%. Although the demand has improved month - on - month, the overall improvement range is very limited [4] 纯碱 Supply - The weekly output is 713,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 22,800 tons), including 323,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons) and 389,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 20,100 tons). Jinshan No. 2 Plant is under maintenance, affecting the daily output of 5,000 tons. Tianjin Alkali Plant is expected to be under maintenance in early April, and Jiangsu Shilian, Xuzhou Fengcheng, and Jiangsu Huachang may be under maintenance in May. Currently, the daily output remains stable above 100,000 tons [5] Inventory - The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.693 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8,400 tons (an increase of 9,100 tons for light soda ash and a decrease of 17,500 tons for heavy soda ash). The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 402,700 tons (a decrease of 12,800 tons). The total inventory of the factory and the delivery warehouse is 2.0954 million tons, and the inventory fluctuates at a high level [5] Profit - According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the combined - soda process (double - ton) is + 164 yuan, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process is - 87 yuan/ton [5] Demand - Driven by the rush - installation wave, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to increase. In April, there were 2 new ignition photovoltaic glass production lines (with a total daily output of 2,500 tons). Coupled with the continuous improvement of the kiln - blocking phenomenon, the current daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has increased to 96,000 tons. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to decline month - on - month, but the slope has slowed down. The ignition and cold - repair of float glass coexist, and the daily melting volume fluctuates at a low level. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash, deduced from float glass and photovoltaic glass, has improved month - on - month, and the upstream and mid - stream inventories remain at a high level [5] Strategy - There is relatively little maintenance in April, and the daily output may run at a high level. There is an expectation of mass production for new capacities. As the supply remains at a high level, the balance of heavy soda ash deduced from rigid demand continues to be in surplus. In general, even if short - term maintenance causes periodic fluctuations in production, it does not affect the overall supply - demand pattern. The market remains in the consensus of medium - to long - term oversupply expectations, and the inventory is at a historical high with obvious pressure. On the demand side, the rigid demand deduced from the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has slightly improved month - on - month, and the pressure on the finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass has been alleviated. The further downward driving force for the price of soda ash lies in the continuous accumulation of inventory and the price - cut actions of alkali plants [6]