2025年11月16日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 | 2 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面仍具备上行驱动 | 11 | | 多晶硅：下周成都行业大会，关注情绪提振 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：动力和储能需求短期转弱，矿端发运起量，上方承压 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 16 日 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：镍价破位下行，预计承压震荡。从基本面来看，现实仍然是以冶炼累库矛盾为主，全球 精炼镍显性库存维持累增，边际内盘累库更多导致进口亏损稍有扩大，同时，预期端亦呈现供增需弱，市 场普遍预期隐性补库放缓，且镍合金端使用镍铁取代镍板的比例有所提高，而纯镍投产仍有增加的预期， 叠加远端低成本湿法路径 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the operational challenges faced by Bull Group, evidenced by a decline in both revenue and net profit in their latest financial report [4][8][10] - Bull Group's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 3.22% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 8.72%, with the third quarter showing a more significant decline of 10.29% [8][9][11] - This marks the first time since its IPO in 2020 that Bull Group has experienced a simultaneous decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters [10] Group 2 - The company's core business, which includes electrical connections and smart electrical lighting, has been under pressure, with both segments reporting declines in revenue [12][13] - The electrical connection business generated revenue of 36.62 billion yuan, down 5.37% year-on-year, while the smart electrical lighting segment brought in 40.94 billion yuan, down 2.78% [12] - The decline in performance is attributed to macroeconomic factors and intensified industry competition, particularly from internet companies like Xiaomi entering the socket market [13] Group 3 - The actual controller of Bull Group, Ruan Xueping, announced a significant share reduction plan, intending to sell up to 36.17 million shares, which represents 2% of the company's total shares, potentially raising over 1.6 billion yuan [15][18] - This is the second major reduction by Ruan Xueping in two years, following a previous sale of 17.79 million shares in July 2023 [15][18] - The timing of the share reduction, just before the disappointing financial report, has raised concerns among investors regarding the company's future prospects [18] Group 4 - Bull Group is attempting to diversify its business by entering the renewable energy sector, focusing on electric vehicle charging stations and energy storage [19][22] - However, the contribution of the renewable energy business to overall revenue remains minimal, with only 386 million yuan generated in the first half of 2025, accounting for just 4.73% of total revenue [22] - The company's international expansion strategy relies heavily on a "big client model," which may not yield significant results in the short term to offset domestic market declines [22]

Core Insights - The emergence of the "境" brand signifies a new phase in the collaboration between automotive companies and Huawei [1] Group 1: Brand Collaboration - Dongfeng Motor announced on November 15 that a new brand created in partnership with Huawei will be launched on November 20 [2] - The project, initiated in 2023, is one of the earliest co-creation models established with Huawei, currently referred to as DH, with the Chinese brand name to be revealed soon [2] - The "境" brand represents a new collaboration model where automotive companies and Huawei will work together on brand creation, focusing on smart technology, user ecosystems, and brand marketing [5] Group 2: Comparison with Previous Models - The "境" brand collaboration is seen as an upgraded version of Huawei's previous "HI" model, allowing for deeper cooperation compared to past partnerships [5] - Unlike the existing "鸿蒙智行" system's brands, the new "境" brand may not be sold through Huawei's terminal store network, providing more flexibility and freedom to automotive companies [5] - The "境" brand follows the previously announced "华境" and "启境" brands from SAIC-GM Wuling and GAC Group, respectively, with "华境" targeting the 100,000 yuan price range and focusing on the popularization of smart technology, while "启境" aims at the luxury market with a price point around 300,000 yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company maintains a solid advantage in traditional heat shrink materials and the power sector, with new energy products like liquid-cooled charging guns accelerating growth and opening new opportunities [2][5]. - Subsidiary Letin Intelligent, a leader in high-speed data communication copper cables, is expected to benefit significantly from the rapid growth in AI data communication demand, leading to rapid scale expansion [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the third quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.082 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.17% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 822 million yuan, up 25.45% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 796 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 28.45% [5][10]. Business Growth Drivers - The electric wire and cable sector remains highly prosperous, driven by the accelerated construction of AI computing infrastructure, which has led to a surge in demand for high-speed data transmission [10]. - The new energy power business is steadily expanding, with liquid cooling technology becoming a key growth driver as the market for charging guns rapidly grows due to increasing demand for fast charging in electric vehicles [10]. Regional and Market Expansion - The company is optimizing its regional layout and is expected to continue expanding in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, leveraging local production and supply chain strategies [10]. - The traditional advantage in the South China region benefits from the industrial cluster effect of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, enhancing customer stickiness and supporting the company's globalization strategy [10]. Future Profitability Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.17 billion yuan, 1.83 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 57%, and 26% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.91 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 18.8% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 1.41 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.6% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 4.57 billion yuan, marking a 25.5% increase year-on-year and a 4.6% increase quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same quarter was 510 million yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year but down 8.6% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gross margin was 34.63%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 35.35%, down 0.40 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.68 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [11]. - The total expenses as a percentage of revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 were 17.23%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the expense ratio was 18.86%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points year-on-year and 3.70 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [11]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's inventory was 3.489 billion yuan, up 20.0% year-on-year and 13.2% quarter-on-quarter. The contract liabilities were 5.6 million yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year and 6.6% quarter-on-quarter. The debt-to-asset ratio was 36.54%, a decrease of 4.16 percentage points year-on-year [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.13 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 700 million yuan, up 15.6% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 680 million yuan, an increase of 14.5% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.6%, although it saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.7%. The net profit for the same quarter was 230 million yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year and down 2.9% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 30.77%, a decrease of 2.93 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 31.24%, down 2.97 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.83 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10] - The total operating expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 accounted for 17.64% of revenue, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the expense ratio was 17.71%, down 4.76% year-on-year [10] Business Development - The company is expanding its non-grid business, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth. The new products and technologies are beginning to penetrate the market more rapidly [10] - The company anticipates that the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 could reach 844 million yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 28 times [10]

（记者 张明双） 截至发稿，华盛昌市值为47亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——软银突然暴跌！曾与黄仁勋"相拥而泣"，68岁日本首富孙正义再次清仓英 伟达，套现押注OpenAI，提前入账80亿美元利润藏"猫腻" 每经AI快讯，华盛昌（SZ 002980，收盘价：24.86元）发布公告称，2025年11月14日15:30-17:00，华盛 昌接受中信建投证券等投资者调研，公司董事会秘书季弘、证券事务代表陈碧莹参与接待，并回答了投 资者提出的问题。 2024年1至6月份，华盛昌的营业收入构成为：仪器仪表占比93.19%，新能源产品占比3.57%，其他业务 占比3.24%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [4]. Core Views - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, with three main investment themes identified: demand exceeding expectations, "anti-involution" trends, and opportunities in leading companies at low valuations [19][21][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Insights of the Week - The report highlights a positive shift in consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data, indicating potential for recovery in the chemical sector [18]. - The overall PB ratio for the chemical industry is at 2.4, suggesting significant upside potential [18]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The chemical sector index increased by 2.6% over the week, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [23]. - Year-to-date, the chemical sector index has risen by 34%, indicating strong performance relative to broader market indices [23]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 305 stocks rose while 115 fell, with notable gainers including Yongtai Technology (+33.9%) and Aoke Shares (+25.4%) [27]. 4. Investment Themes Theme 1: Focus on Demand Exceeding Expectations - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in upstream chemical products driven by the booming electric vehicle market, with a 34.6% year-on-year increase in sales [19]. - Key materials such as lithium iron phosphate and caprolactam are highlighted for their price elasticity due to supply-demand dynamics [19]. Theme 2: Attention to "Anti-Involution" Trends - The report discusses the progress in "anti-involution" efforts within the chemical industry, particularly in PTA and caprolactam, where production cuts are being implemented to optimize supply [21]. Theme 3: Opportunities in Low-Valuation Leading Companies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with low valuations, as the supply-demand balance in the chemical sector continues to improve [22]. - Companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Baofeng Energy are recommended for investment consideration [22].

在白酒行业面临结构性调整的背景下，贵州茅台不断试水股权投资，试图开辟新的增长曲线。 天眼查资料显示，11月12日，金石深合（贵州）数字科技股权投资合伙企业（有限合伙）正式注册成 立，出资额为20亿元，经营范围包含：以私募基金从事股权投资、投资管理等活动。 股权穿透显示，该基金由茅台金石（贵州）产业发展基金合伙企业（有限合伙）、茅台（贵州）私募基 金管理有限公司、中信证券全资子公司中信金石投资有限公司（简称"中信金石"）、横琴深合产业投资 有限公司、金石润泽（淄博）管理咨询企业有限公司共同出资设立，具体出资比例未公开。 中信金石担任执行事务合伙人 金石深合（贵州）数字科技股权投资合伙企业（有限合伙）的执行事务合伙人为中信金石。中信金石是 中信证券全资设立的私募基金子公司，成立于2007年，首批获得中国证监会批准的直投试点企业资格。 业内人士指出，茅台基金作为茅台集团的产融结合平台，具有独特的竞争优势。一方面，茅台集团的品 牌溢价与现金流优势为基金提供了强大的资金支持；另一方面，茅台基金通过与专业机构合作，采用市 场化运作方式，降低了投资风险并提高了决策效率。 加码布局科技领域 此前，茅台的股权投资主要由全资子公 ...

智通财经APP获悉，崔东树发文称，在国家促销费政策推动下汽车市场保持强势增长，10月全国汽车市场总体走势较强，卡车市场和客车市场回暖明显。 由于零售传导拉动批发的速度较慢，2024年10月的零售大幅强于批发，导致今年10月乘用车零售负增长，但因出口和库存增量，10月厂家销量增速仍很 好。10月新能源车走势较强，汽车出口市场持续走强，厂商库存变化较大，行业压力加大。10月商用车市场出现新能源推动的结构性增长特征，物流运输 类电动化加速，皮卡类车型电动化加速。 1、2025年汽车乘商走势分化 2023年初新能源推动车市走势分化。央企三强总体分化，部分国企掉队。比亚迪等新能源企业的表现很好；奇瑞、特斯拉今年的表现相对较强。二线车企 表现分化，因为新旧动能转换和新能源车持续亏损压力，自主品牌中小企业分化严重低迷。 对比上面2021年图表，2022年的部分车企强势表现，行业增速分化严重。2022年年初的疫情导致传统车企压力较大，尤其新能源冲击叠加疫情影响，国有 大集团表现分化，广汽和奇瑞表现优秀，其中奇瑞的商用车和乘用车版块表现均很好。北方的一汽、长城、北汽等各家表现都有压力。 近几年乘商分化特征明显，商用车走弱，乘用 ...