2025 年 12 月 31 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】关注春季行情——2026 年 1 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 2026 年 1 月 A 股金股组合：顺络电子、中际旭创、新易盛、中芯国际、中国石油、 中国石化、海尔智家、工商银行、紫金矿业、上海临港。 2026 年 1 月港股金股组合： 阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、中芯国际、华虹半导体、越疆、金风科技。 【金工】核心稳固，边际灵活：增量加速与定价权提升下的南向资金配置格局——南 向资金跟踪 南向资金规模与配置节奏显著加速，已成为港股流动性与定价的重要支撑。资金由情 绪与套利驱动转向以基本面为核心的长期配置，在行业轮动与估值形成中逐步扮演 "定价锚"角色。结构上，行业配置由金融地产主导演进为"金融+科技+消费"的多 元格局。2025 年以来，南向资金呈现"核心配置稳固、边际行业灵活轮动"的特征， 个股上增量集中于优质龙头，总体看对港股中长期定价权持续提升。 行业研究 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3965.12 | 0.00 | | 沪深 300 ...

投资心语 十连阳≠普涨 春季行情这样布局 各位投资者朋友： 昨天（12月30日）收盘后，沪指"十连阳"的消息刷屏市场，不少投资者望着红彤彤的指数，内心却难有 太多喜悦——盘面之下藏着另一面：低开高走的"假阳线"，以及超过3400只个股悄然下跌。一边是机器 人概念的涨停潮，一边是手中持仓的黯然调整，这般反差，想必让不少人倍感困惑与纠结：这连阳该追 还是减仓？春季行情还值得期待吗？ PART.01 十连阳的真相：不是普涨，而是少数赛道的"抱团" 小编想说，不必被"十连阳"的纪录裹挟，这并非全面牛市的信号，更像是一场结构性的局部行情。指数 能稳步走阳，核心是三重力量的支撑：央行释放稳市场信号、持续提供流动性补给，叠加人民币升值缓 解外资流出压力，多重利好推动权重股稳步上行，撑起了指数的稳健表象。 但身处市场的我们都清楚，指数的光鲜难以覆盖多数个股的疲态。昨日的"冰火两重天"，正是当前市场 的真实缩影：热门赛道个股涨幅凌厉，多数中小盘股却陷入调整。这本质并非市场增量资金全面进场后 的普涨，而是资金向少数政策支持、趋势明确的赛道集中"提前布局"，是存量博弈下的分化格局，也是 普通投资者需认清的核心现实。 来源：国金证券 ...

查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 （张宇生/王国兴） 2025-12-30 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【金工】核心稳固，边际灵活：增量加速与定价权提升下的南向资金配置格局 ——南向资金跟踪 南向资金规模与配置节奏显著加速，已成为港股流动性与定价的重要支撑。资金由情绪与套利驱动转向以基本 面为核心的长期配置，在行业轮动与估值形成中逐步扮演"定价锚"角色。结构上，行业配置由金融地产主导演 进为"金融+科技+消费"的多元格局。2025年以来，南向资金呈现"核心配置稳固、边际行业灵活轮动"的特征， 个股上增量集中于优质龙头，总体看对港股中长期定价权持续提升。 （祁嫣然/陈颖）2025-12-30 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【策略】关注春季行情——2026年1月A股及港股月度金股组 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent appreciation of the Renminbi, which has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of Renminbi-denominated assets [8]. - The central economic work conference has set a positive tone for the market, with expectations for continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, potentially leading to interest rate cuts in 2026 [8]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, suggesting a shift towards a new structure that favors stronger leading firms and specialized development for smaller firms [8]. - The introduction of new disclosure regulations for asset management products in the insurance sector is expected to increase compliance costs in the short term but will enhance investor trust and reduce compliance risks in the long run [36][38]. Summary by Sections Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - The report notes that the China Securities Association has strengthened the pressure testing system for securities firms, which is expected to enhance risk management and stability in the capital market [14]. - The report indicates that the total trading volume in the A-share market reached 7,085.41 billion shares, with a total transaction value of 11.45 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.22% in average daily trading volume [17]. - The report also mentions that the balance of margin financing and securities lending reached 2.54 trillion yuan, up 1.58% from the previous week [17]. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - The report discusses the new information disclosure regulations for bank and insurance asset management products, which aim to standardize disclosure practices and enhance investor protection [36][37]. - The report highlights that the new regulations will create a comprehensive disclosure framework, improving transparency and compliance in the insurance asset management sector [38]. Market Liquidity Tracking - The report provides insights into the liquidity situation, noting a net withdrawal of 948 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations during the week [41]. - It also mentions that the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit totaled 5,532.30 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 3,289.70 billion yuan [41].

Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The report discusses potential issues to watch in the spring market of 2025, including whether there will be a significant drop in A-shares similar to previous years and the timing of the spring rally in relation to mandatory annual report disclosures [3][4] - Current economic recovery is still fragile, making a policy shift unlikely, and the market sentiment remains positive with the Shanghai Composite Index showing resilience near the 3800 support level [4][5] - The report indicates that sectors that performed well before the spring rally tend to maintain their momentum, with a 60-70% probability of continuation in the early stages of the rally [5] Group 2: AI Chip Market Dynamics - The report highlights Nvidia's conditional reopening of H200 chip exports to China, which is primarily aimed at inventory clearance and regaining market share lost due to previous bans [7][8] - Major Chinese tech companies are rapidly procuring H200 chips, with Alibaba planning to purchase 40,000 to 50,000 units, indicating a strong demand for high-end computing power [9][10] - The report suggests that while the H200 chip can meet some high-end demands in China, it may delay the progress of domestic AI chip development, reinforcing the need for self-sufficiency in technology [8][12] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The report notes an increase in the National Chemical Industry Prosperity Index, indicating a positive outlook for the chemical sector, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions that may accelerate the replacement of Japanese semiconductor materials [15][18] - The report emphasizes the potential for high dividend yields in the chemical sector as capacity expansion slows globally, with a focus on companies that can leverage their cash flow effectively [18][22] - The report identifies specific opportunities in the chemical industry, including low-cost expansion and sectors with improving profitability, such as chromium salts and phosphates [19][20] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Movements - The report indicates a significant net inflow into the CSI A500 ETF, with a total inflow of 493.24 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery in stock market funding demand [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a balanced funding environment, with the central bank's operations resulting in a net injection of 652 billion yuan into the market [44] - The report suggests that the securities industry is likely to benefit from a slow bull market, with various brokerage services expected to perform well under favorable conditions [47][48]

周末关于商业航天这周分歧的讨论有了结论，不是分歧，是分化。商业航天的票周一（12月29日）分为 两类，一类是别人手里的还在突突，一类是你手里的在分歧。 人家花7亿打板了航天发展，周一怒赚7000万，被称为跨年妖股的有力竞争者，我买了个卫星机构核心 被立案成了真雷科技。仿佛后面两天的剧本我已经看到了，手里的票达芬奇，人家的票玩穿越。 别叫我达芬奇，让我唱首melody。 商业航天这个位置选股如同做奥数题，好歹还是有人能赚到钱，AI那边赚钱的已经不是人。 都不是，是有色。如果在年初买入有色ETF （159876）并持有到现在，已经浮盈90%了。有色锁定年度 冠军的同时把AI打成了副goat。高位高波动是收益率的天敌，有色夺冠的秘诀是不搞轰轰烈烈的加速和 分歧，而是小碎步走趋势，这才叫闷声发大财。 这个走法也决定着，当你注意到期货价格凶猛的时候才想起来买有色股票，往往结局就是当天吃套，周 一冲了锂矿和白银股的朋友应该深有体会。 等到期货阶段性加速了再去掺和个股，往往是多空双杀、反复打脸，与之相比定投基金，做趋势投资就 豁然开朗。 上周日（12月28日）晚上昇腾喜获400亿字节订单的小作文尽管充满了浪漫主义的乐观精神 ...

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3%, with consumption growth at 3.5%, investment at -0.3%, and exports at 8.8% [2] - The K-shaped recovery continues, with services and non-durable goods consumption accelerating, while durable goods consumption remains sluggish [2] - The investment in equipment and intellectual property benefited from optimistic AI expectations, while construction and real estate investments were hindered by high interest rates [2] Group 2: Q4 Economic Predictions - The GDPNow model predicts a Q4 GDP growth rate of 3.0%, with consumption growth at 2.7%, investment at 7.0%, and exports at 6.6% [3] - Caution is advised regarding the sustainability of consumption growth due to declining savings rates and a weak job market [3] - Investment growth is primarily driven by inventory replenishment post-tariff impacts and a weak recovery in real estate investment [3] Group 3: Stock Market Insights - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices saw slight increases of 1.4% and 1.3% respectively, with December typically being a strong month for US stocks [4] - Concerns about high valuations and AI bubble risks persist, with future market dynamics expected to oscillate between high valuations, interest rate cuts, and AI monetization [4] - Recommendations include maintaining a diversified portfolio, focusing on materials and industrial sectors alongside technology [4] Group 4: Bond Market and Currency Trends - In a rate-cutting cycle, US bond yields are expected to trend downward, with short-term bonds benefiting directly from Fed actions [4] - The dollar is anticipated to remain in a downtrend due to high Fed rate cut expectations, although a long-term recovery is expected by 2026 [4] - The RMB is experiencing strong appreciation driven by year-end settlement demand, with further appreciation likely as the interest rate differential narrows [5] Group 5: Chinese Economic Conditions - The real estate market continues to weaken, with new home and second-hand home transactions dropping by 27.4% and 25.8% respectively in December [6] - Industrial profits fell by 13.1% year-on-year in November, indicating increasing economic pressure and weak recovery momentum [7] - Export dynamics show a short-term contraction in volume but a price recovery, with container shipping rates rebounding [8] Group 6: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The 2026 fiscal policy will focus on expanding expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, and enhancing local financial autonomy [9] - The monetary policy is shifting towards a more flexible approach, emphasizing support for domestic demand and innovation [10] - The bond market is expected to remain slightly weak in the short term, with a focus on mid-term bond investments [11] Group 7: Market Outlook - Short-term risks include the potential decline in year-end capital inflows and increased earnings volatility in January [12] - The technology sector remains a key focus, with recommendations to balance investments across technology, dividends, and consumer sectors [13] - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from continued inflows and a favorable interest rate environment, despite current pressures [13]

截至收盘，创业板中盘200指数下跌0.3%，创业板成长指数下跌0.5%，创业板指数下跌0.7%。 中泰证券表示，展望后市，春节前行情整体仍具备上行空间，短期仍有逢低布局机会。当前阶段，制约市场的主要风险因素已较前期明显弱化，风险偏好有 望维持较高水平。从外部环境看，前期市场对全球流动性预期收紧以及美股高估值AI板块回调的担忧有所缓解。从国内环境看，由于今年春节时点偏晚， 春节后两会召开时间较近，当前市场对于消费政策的乐观预期在两会前处于"不可证伪"期，有利于维持整体较高的风险偏好水平。 每日经济新闻 ...

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 29 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美增长和就业数据维持改善态势 上周公布的三季度 GDP 数据显示美国经济增长韧性延续，主要来自私人消 费和净出口贡献。美国财长贝森特提议联储未来修改通胀目标。日本公布 2026 财年预算，财政维持扩张态势；日本财政部释放干预日元的信号，并 宣布将削减超长债发行规模以稳定日债市场。乌克兰和平进程进入关键外交 博弈期。上周美债收益率小幅下行、美元回落、美股上涨。本周重点关注美 联储 12 月 FOMC 会议纪要（12 月 31 日）、泽连斯基与特朗普会面（12 月 28 日）、新联储主席人选（可能在 1 月第一周公布）。 风险提示：地缘政治不确定性，联储独立性受到超预期削弱。 研报发布日期：2025-12-28 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 王子琳 SAC:S0570525090002 陈玮 SAC:S057052403000 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current A-share market rally is primarily driven by liquidity, with expectations of fluctuations in early 2026 due to concentrated inflows into the CSI A500 ETF and other factors. However, favorable conditions for the spring market remain intact, suggesting a focus on thematic opportunities rather than traditional cyclical plays [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share market has shown a significant liquidity-driven rally, with the CSI A500 ETF experiencing concentrated inflows, indicating a rapid influx of new capital [2][5]. - Factors supporting the spring market include: 1. Loose market liquidity, with private equity firms increasing purchases and insurance companies potentially reallocating to A-shares due to high premium growth [5]. 2. A continuous time window supporting risk appetite, highlighted by key events such as the Spring Festival in February, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Themes - The article suggests a focus on "non-main battlefield" spring themes, where opportunities lie in thematic investments rather than traditional cyclical sectors like AI and beta plays, which are currently limited [6][7]. - Thematic rotations are expected in spring, including: 1. Industrial themes (e.g., commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion). 2. Funding themes (e.g., from CSI A500 to insurance allocations). 3. Policy themes (e.g., Hainan, service consumption) [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook remains bullish, with a two-phase bull market anticipated: the first phase being a structural bull market in technology, currently at a high level, and the second phase expected in the second half of 2026, driven by fundamental improvements and increased asset allocation towards equities [7][9]. - The spring market is characterized by a lack of capital scarcity and favorable time windows, suggesting widespread profit-making opportunities across various themes [6][9].