1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends, with soybean meal and eggs rising, the oil and fat sector weakening, and various varieties having their own influencing factors and market outlooks [1] - Different varieties have different trading strategies based on their market conditions and technical indicators 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal shows strong growth due to uncertainties in Sino - US economic and trade relations, poor oil mill crushing profits, and short - covering. The egg market has a strong rebound because of strong bottom - fishing sentiment in the spot market and potential accelerated capacity reduction. The oil and fat sector is under pressure due to high domestic soybean crushing volume and lack of price - support from oil mills and traders [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is strongly rising, driven by short - covering. Uncertainties in Sino - US economic and trade relations lead to an expected shortage of long - term imported soybeans. Oil mills have a strong willingness to support prices due to poor or negative crushing profits. After the festival, the concentrated release of rigid demand for replenishment and the recovery of the production rhythm of downstream feed enterprises result in a significant increase in提货 volume and a decrease in domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory to below one million tons. As of October 17, the inventory was 970,000 tons, a decrease of over 9% compared to the previous period [2] - Technically, the contract price breaks through the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to close short positions and establish long positions on dips. The support level is 2920, and the resistance level is 2950 [2] 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2512 contract of eggs has a strong rebound, boosted by the rise in spot prices. After the egg price reaches a phased low, the bottom - fishing sentiment in the spot market heats up, the trading atmosphere improves, and the inventory days decrease. Meanwhile, the breeding end accelerates the elimination of old chickens. If the elimination volume of old chickens exceeds expectations in the future, it will accelerate capacity reduction and relieve the supply pressure. The rise in egg spot prices leads to a large number of short - covering in the futures market, pushing up the futures price [3] - Technically, the contract price stands firm above the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and wait to see if it can break through the 20 - day moving average. The support level is 2975, and the resistance level is 3082 [3] 3.2.3 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton continues to rise, driven by long - buying and improved demand. With the listing of new cotton, ginning factories continue to purchase, and the purchase cost increases. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises rebounds. As of October 16, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 65.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.20%. China's cotton imports in September decreased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to September decreased by 69.8% year - on - year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The increase in cotton quotes at Chinese ports reflects the strengthening of demand, pushing up the spot price [5] - Technically, the contract price stands firm above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to buy long positions on dips. The support level is 13490, and the resistance level is 13700 [5] 3.2.4 Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn rebounds and rises, supported by planting costs and continuous listing purchases by grain depots. In the Northeast production area, new grain is on the market, and grain depots start to purchase. The drop in temperature in the Northeast is conducive to corn storage, reducing the pressure of corn listing. In the North China region, the improvement in weather conditions significantly reduces the pressure of grass - roots grain sales. Deep - processing enterprises have low corn inventories and need to replenish stocks. The increase in long positions in the corn futures market drives the futures price to rebound [7] - Technically, the contract price returns above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to buy long positions lightly on dips. The support level is 2127, and the resistance level is 2155 [7] 3.2.5 Live Pigs - The main 2601 contract of live pigs first rises and then falls, with limited rebound. The spread between standard and fat pigs in the live pig market attracts second - fattening entry, and the transaction in some areas improves. At the same time, after the previous decline in the live pig price, the cost of slaughtering enterprises decreases, and some enterprises increase the inventory of frozen products, providing short - term support for the pig price. However, the live pig inventory remains at a high level, and the loose supply - demand pattern in the industry has not been fundamentally reversed, limiting the rebound height of the live pig futures price [9] - Technically, the contract price still holds above the 10 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a red bar emerging. The strategy is to close short positions and then conduct short - term trading. The support level is 12125, and the resistance level is 12400 [9] 3.2.6 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples fluctuates and rises after a small adjustment, continuing to fluctuate at a high level. In the western production area, the price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi is stable, and the picking progress of late - maturing Fuji apples in Gansu is fast, with merchants mainly storing them in warehouses. In the Shandong production area, the redness and brightness of late - maturing Fuji apples are generally average, and merchants are cautious in purchasing. The current market's continuous concern about apple quality supports the apple price. The short - covering of some positions in the apple futures market supports the high - level operation of the futures price [11] - Technically, the contract price fluctuates above the moving average system, and the technical strength remains unchanged. The strategy is to hold long positions lightly. The support level is 8792, and the resistance level is 8888 [11] 3.2.7 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil continues to fall, affected by the increase in Malaysian palm oil production. From October 1 to 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10.77% month - on - month. In terms of exports, the purchasing demand will continue to decline after the Indian Festival of Lights, and the market sentiment turns bearish. In the domestic market, the arrival of goods in the near - term is sufficient, and there are more ship bookings for November, weakening the cost support and causing the palm oil futures price to fall under pressure [13] - Technically, the contract price breaks below the moving average system, and the MACD falls into the negative area with an expanding green column. The strategy is to hold short positions lightly. The support level is 9050, and the resistance level is 9180 [13] 3.2.8 White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar rebounds strongly, boosted by technical buying. According to customs data, China's white sugar imports in September decreased by 33.56% month - on - month and increased by 35.81% year - on - year. The month - on - month decrease in white sugar imports ends the six - month increase trend, reducing the import pressure. The futures price is at a discount, and enterprises have insufficient motivation for hedging, supporting the rebound of the futures price. However, the continuous beet sugar pressing and the relatively abundant supply of processed sugar limit the rebound space of white sugar [15] - Technically, the contract price rebounds strongly and stands above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to try to buy long positions lightly. The support level is 5433, and the resistance level is 5470 [15] 3.2.9 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates continues to fall, pressured by the increased supply of new dates. Currently, the process of orchard contracting in Xinjiang is fast, and the picking time is slightly earlier than last year due to the influence of solar terms. The supply of new dates is about to increase, and the supply of old dates is sufficient, putting pressure on the price of red dates. The long - covering at high positions in the red date futures market drives the futures price to fall [17] - Technically, the contract price falls continuously from a high level and tests the support of the medium - term moving average, and the MACD red column shrinks. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading. The support level is 11120, and the resistance level is 11320 [17]

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 周安王十三年（公元前 389 年），秦惠公举全国之力，征发五十万大军，浩浩荡荡东出，直逼魏国西 河重镇阴晋。秦军声势滔天，旌旗蔽日，战车千乘，骑兵数万，势要一举夺回河西失地。魏国朝野震动， 人心惶惶。然而吴起镇定自若，察敌情而知其虚实：秦军虽众，然多为仓促征召之农夫，未经训练，且器 械不齐，士无斗志，不过是乌合之众。反观"魏武卒"：装备精良，训练有素，皆为百里挑一之锐士。 吴起遂上奏魏武侯，请求以五万未立功之武卒为先锋，亲自率兵出击。武侯允之，更增派战车五百、 骑兵三千。战前，吴起誓师三军："车兵若不能缴获敌车，骑兵若不能擒获敌骑，步卒若不能斩杀敌兵， 纵然击溃敌军，亦不得记功！"三军闻令，斗志昂扬，如猛虎出柙。 阴晋城外，两军对垒。五十万秦军如黑云压城，而五万"魏武卒"则如利刃在手。吴起亲率精锐，直冲 秦军中军。"魏武卒"阵形严整，进退有序，长戟如林，箭雨如蝗。秦军虽众，然一触即溃，阵脚大乱。魏 军反复冲杀，数度击穿秦阵，秦军自相践踏，死伤无数。最终，五十万秦军竟被六万魏国精锐击溃，仓皇 西逃，尸横遍野，阴晋城下，血流成河。此战之后，秦国元气大伤，数十年不敢东向，魏国威名远扬，天 下始知 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL from Sinopec remained stable, while some prices from PetroChina were raised by 50. For drawn wire PP, Sinopec's prices were stable, and some prices from PetroChina were lowered by 50. Fundamentally, polyolefin prices have gradually stopped falling and the price center has shifted downwards, influenced by both crude oil and the need for self - digestion in the fundamentals. After continuous declines, polyolefins started to rebound following crude oil, and market sentiment gradually stabilized [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Polyolefin Futures (LL&PP) - **Price Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6936, 6978, and 7009 respectively, with increases of 53, 61, and 57 compared to the prices two days ago, and涨幅 of 0.77%, 0.88%, and 0.82% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6619, 6665, and 6680 respectively, with increases of 36, 38, and 33 compared to the prices two days ago, and涨幅 of 0.55%, 0.57%, and 0.50% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 234079, 20723, and 235 respectively, and the open interests were 549864, 61919, and 935 respectively, with open interest changes of - 12101, - 1145, and 85 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 253179, 22456, and 866 respectively, and the open interests were 633255, 124726, and 4998 respectively, with open interest changes of - 15845, 2422, and 262 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 42, - 31, and 73 respectively, compared to previous values of - 34, - 35, and 69. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 46, - 15, and 61 respectively, compared to previous values of - 44, - 20, and 64 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market Raw Materials - **Prices**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2264 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 537 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6490 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2270 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 523 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6450 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] Spot Market - **LL Spot Prices**: In the East China market, the price range was 6900 - 7450 yuan/ton; in the North China market, it was 6850 - 7150 yuan/ton; in the South China market, it was 7100 - 7500 yuan/ton. The previous price ranges were the same except for an incorrect record in the North China market (8100 - 8250 yuan/ton was wrongly added) [2] - **PP Spot Prices**: In the East China market, the price range was 6450 - 6650 yuan/ton; in the North China market, it was 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton; in the South China market, it was 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the previous price ranges were the same [2] Market News - On Wednesday (October 22, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.50 per barrel, up $1.26 or 2.20% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.34 - $59.83. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.59 per barrel, up $1.27 or 2.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.38 - $64.17 [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费回落，镍铁价格下降，成本线下移，不锈钢 库存小幅回落。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13737.5，基差1027.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：74376，-121，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、结论：不锈钢2512：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 多空因素 影响因素总结 沪镍 每日观点 6、结论：沪镍2512：宽幅震荡思路，逢高仍可试空。 1、基本面：外盘小幅震荡，20均线压力较大。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿山 挺价，海运费最近有小幅下降。镍铁价格回落，成本线有所下移。不锈钢库存小幅回落，节后再次开始 去库存。新能 ...

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大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面宽幅震荡，最终报收 2261（+4/+0.18%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1970 元/吨，北线报价 1990 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1990 元/吨，山西地区报价 2080 元/吨，河南地区报价 2120 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2240 元/吨，鲁北报价 2260 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2170 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2140 元/吨，云贵报价 2200 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2230 元/吨，宁波报价 2220 元/吨，广州报价 2250 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 10 月 22 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 151.22 万吨，较上一期数据增 加 2.08 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 3 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 0.92 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 400 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格稳定，进口顺挂扩大，伊朗尚 ...

Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the market shows both supply and demand growth. The resumption of a large recycled lead smelter in North China has increased refined lead production, but raw material supply is tight. The short - term lead price is expected to remain range - bound, and continuous attention should be paid to the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises and macro - sentiment changes [1]. - For zinc, the market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, demand has not significantly improved. With the continuous depletion of LME zinc inventories, the LME 0 - 3 back structure has deepened, and overseas structural risks should be vigilant [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,000.00 yuan/ton, up 0.44%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 17,160.00 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the basis was - 160.00 yuan/ton, down 25.00 yuan/ton [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,993.00 dollars/ton, down 0.05%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.61, up 0.64% [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 43,537.00 hands, up 57.42%; open interest was 33,556.00 hands, down 12.15%; the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.30, up 79.19% [1]. - LME inventory was 247,300.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 28,133.00 tons, down 3.87% [1]. Industry Information - A large recycled lead smelter in North China has resumed production, with daily refined lead output exceeding 500 tons, but raw material supply is tight [1]. - On October 20, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 41.78 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 152,131 hands, down 3,442 hands [1]. - Silvercorp's lead production in the second quarter of 2025 was 14.2 million pounds, up 8% year - on - year [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 21,870.00 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 21,970.00 yuan/ton, up 0.53%; the basis was - 100.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan/ton [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,993.50 dollars/ton, up 0.59%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 7.34, down 0.06% [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 108,521.00 hands, up 25.60%; open interest was 130,442.00 hands, up 98.81%; the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.83, down 36.83% [1]. - LME inventory was 37,275.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 66,268.00 tons, down 0.23% [1]. Industry Information - Silvercorp's zinc production in the second quarter of 2025 was 5.6 million pounds, down 3% year - on - year [1]. - On October 20, [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 230.29 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 211,259 hands, down 13,012 hands [1]. Investment Strategy - For both lead and zinc, the trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being [1].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 22 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1177.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 3.21%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 | | | | | 收于 1672.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 2.22%。昨日夜盘，Jm2601 收于 1189.5，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘上涨 1.06%；J2601 合约收于 1687.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.9%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、海关总署最新数据显示，2025 年 9 月份，中国进口动力煤（非炼焦煤）3508 万吨， | | | | | 同比下降 5.76%，环比增长 7.69%。2025 年 1-9 月份，中国累计 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: October 21, 2024 [2] - Researchers: Wang Xizhen, Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,540 with a gain of 75, trading volume of 245,897 hands (down 43,834), and open interest of 593,229 (up 231) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,775 with a gain of 170, trading volume of 13,841 hands (up 161), and open interest of 23,282 (up 1,127) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49; CY IndexC32S was 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30 [3] - Cot A was 75.65 cents/pound, up 75.10; FCY IndexC33S was 21,200 yuan/ton, down 18 [3] Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -60, up 5;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -20, up 95 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,235, up 95; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 3,273, up 1,901 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the annual US cotton production forecast, 27% slower year - on - year [6] - In September 2025, cottonseed imports were about 75,177.17 tons, down 35.84% year - on - year, with an average import price of about $342.25/ton, down 10.91% year - on - year [6] - In September, total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, up 3.0% year - on - year. Retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles above the designated size were 123.1 billion yuan, up 4.7% year - on - year [7] Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton entered the acquisition period, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang cotton production was high and ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm was general, with no large - scale rush to buy [8] - The peak season demand in the market was average, and the improvement in downstream demand was limited, so the peak season performance was not expected to be outstanding [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a fluctuating trend [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to rise, but the cotton yarn market was affected by weak downstream demand. The trading volume was average, and spinners and traders were cautious [11] - The cotton fabric market in October was weaker than in September, with demand remaining sluggish. Winter orders were nearing completion, and spring orders were scarce [13] Group 4: Options Option Data - On October 21, 2025, CF601C13400.CZC closed at 247, up 32.1%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [15] - CF601P13000.CZC closed at 45, down 29.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.9% [15] Volatility and Strategy - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 8.542, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [15] - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7255, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.6021. Both call and put trading volumes increased [16] - Option strategy: Wait and see [17]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report, October 21, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market fluctuated widely, closing at 2268 (-12/-53%) [3] - Spot Market: Various regions had different price quotes, e.g., Inner Mongolia南线 at 2050 yuan/ton, North Line at 2000 yuan/ton, etc. [3] Group 3: Important Information - Northwest Methanol Orders: The weekly signed orders (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest reached 63,000 tons (6.30 million tons), an increase of 44,300 tons (4.43 million tons) from the previous statistical date, a 236.90% increase [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 660 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply was continuously abundant with high and stable methanol operating rates [5] - Import: The US dollar price was stable, the import premium widened, Iranian gas was not restricted yet, most Iranian plants were operating normally, non - Iranian operating rates increased, and the overseas operating rate was high [5] - Demand: Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season with falling operating rates, while MTO device operating rates rebounded [5] - Inventory: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was strong, and inland enterprise inventories fluctuated slightly [5] - Overall Situation: The methanol market was mainly in a weak and volatile state under the background of high inventory, with various influencing factors such as coal prices, MTO demand, and international situations [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [9] Group 6: Related Charts - Inventory Charts: Showed historical data of methanol port total inventory, East China port inventory, South China port inventory, sample enterprise total inventory, etc. [10] - Operating Rate Charts: Displayed historical data of coal single - methanol operating rate, coke oven gas operating rate, coal - to - olefin operating rate, etc. [14]