1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to decline in a volatile manner. The spot market sentiment is divided, with the expectation of strong spot and weak futures. A short - selling strategy can be maintained for futures [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to move sideways. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - Oils are expected to be weak. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - Eggs are expected to move sideways. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support egg prices in the short term, but the egg prices are likely to be weak later due to the Mei - yu season and increasing supply [2][3]. - Pigs are expected to move sideways. Pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Thursday, the July corn contract decreased with reduced positions. The domestic average corn price is 2365 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. Northeast prices are stable, North China prices are generally stable, and the prices in the sales areas are rising. Technically, the futures price is in high - level volatility, and a short - selling strategy can be maintained [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans tumbled from a 10 - month high, and soybean oil hit the daily limit down. The U.S. biodiesel policy may be less than expected. The domestic protein meal is strong. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil, Canadian rapeseed, and CBOT soybean oil declined. The domestic oil futures prices are falling, and the basis is expected to continue to decline. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the 2506 egg contract declined by 1.23%, and the 2509 contract rose by 0.13%. The spot price is slightly down. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support prices in the short term, but the prices are likely to be weak later [2][3]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the main pig contract closed with a medium - sized阴线, and the September contract continued to move sideways. The Henan market price is down slightly, and pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3.2 Market Information - In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, up 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 4.2 percentage points year - on - year, and the proportion of soybean meal decreased by 1.3 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased by 6.63% - 14.21% compared with the same period last month according to different institutions [4]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index declined. The average pork price remained the same, and the egg price increased by 1.5% [5]. - The expected biodiesel mandatory blending volume may be 46 - 48 billion gallons, far lower than the previous expectation of 55 - 57.5 billion gallons [2][5]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents charts of 9 - 1 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][8][10][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][19][22][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile. US soybeans need additional stimuli such as biodiesel and production to break through upwards. The medium - term of oils has a downward pressure, but the US RVO rule to be released in two weeks may boost the sentiment of the oil sector. Domestic sugar prices may weaken in the future. Cotton shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the focus is on the marginal change of inventory. Eggs are recommended to be sold on rebounds in the medium - term. For pigs, a short - selling strategy is suggested after spot price rebounds [5][10][13][16][18][21] 3. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - **Important Information**: Overnight US soybeans rose due to the increase in US soybean oil. The US House of Representatives passed a bill restricting biodiesel tax credits for non - North American raw materials, still awaiting Senate approval. As of last week, the US soybean planting progress reached 48%, and the Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress was close to 60%. According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively. The soybean oil mill operating rate was 53.42% yesterday, with a transaction volume of 91,800 tons [2][3] - **Trading Strategy**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton. Considering the low valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal, there is a certain rebound space. In the short - term, they are expected to be volatile [5] Oils - **Important Information**: In April, India's vegetable oil imports decreased to 891,558 tons, and the inventory dropped to 1.33 million tons. From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly, but the export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased significantly in April, but was supported by rising crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies [6][7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - term, oils have a downward pressure, but in the short - term, they may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the upcoming US RVO rule and low near - month palm oil inventory [10] Sugar - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. In the second half of April, in the central and southern regions of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production ratio, and sugar output all decreased significantly compared to the same period last year [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply shortage of raw sugar has been alleviated, and domestic sugar prices may weaken in the future as the import profit window may reopen [13] Cotton - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose. The USDA monthly report showed that the global cotton production was expected to decrease by 710,000 tons, mainly from China and Australia. As of May 11, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 28% [15] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term cotton price may be boosted by the Sino - US negotiation progress, but the domestic cotton textile industry is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the focus is on inventory changes [16] Eggs - **Spot Information**: Most of the national egg prices rose yesterday, with the main producing area average price remaining at 3.25 yuan/jin. The supply increased slightly, and the downstream digestion was mostly stable. Today's egg prices may be mostly stable, with a risk of decline in some areas [17] - **Trading Strategy**: After the festival, the inventory reduction was less than expected. In the medium - term, the strategy of selling on rebounds remains unchanged [18] Pigs - **Spot Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with some areas slightly decreasing. Today, the prices in the northern and central regions may decline locally, while the southern market may remain stable [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term spot price fluctuates little, and a short - selling strategy is suggested after price rebounds [21]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA monthly report on soybeans is slightly bullish, with expected lower production, stable exports and domestic consumption. However, short - term supply of US soybeans and domestic soybeans is expected to be large, and the prices are likely to be volatile in the short term, requiring additional stimuli for further upward movement [2][5]. - For palm oil, the significant increase in production and inventory in April puts downward pressure on prices in the medium - term. But the rise in crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies provide some support. In the short term, prices may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the upcoming RVO rule [6][9]. - For sugar, the supply shortage situation is expected to turn into a slight surplus in the 2025/26 season. The price of raw sugar may hit a new low in the second and third quarters, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to weaken later [10][11]. - For cotton, the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations will boost short - term prices, and future focus should be on marginal changes in inventory [13][14]. - For eggs, the supply pressure is large, and the mid - term strategy is to sell on rebounds [16][17]. - For pigs, the spot price has limited short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has a limited downward space. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds caused by sentiment [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meadow - **Important Information**: Overnight US soybeans rose due to the easing of the trade war. The USDA monthly report estimated a slight reduction in the new US soybean production in the 25/26 season, stable crushing volume, a slight decline in exports, and a slight reduction in inventory. The expected RVO plan from the EPA in two weeks also supports US soybeans. The opening rate of domestic soybean oil mills increased, leading to a slight decline in the domestic soybean meal spot price. The estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near - term, US soybeans and domestic soybeans are expected to have large supplies but low valuations, so they are likely to be volatile. Further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli from biodiesel and production [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: The MPOB report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in April rose to 1.86 million tons. From May 1 - 5, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased significantly. From May 1 - 10, the export volume decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month. The rise in crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies support the price, but if the palm oil production continues to recover rapidly, the price will be under pressure. The industry association's request to greatly increase RVO will boost the valuation of US soybean oil [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The downward movement of the crude oil center and the obvious recovery of palm oil production will put downward pressure on oil prices in the medium - term. However, the upcoming RVO rule may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short term, so the prices may be volatile or slightly bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Tuesday. The analysis agency Green Pool estimated a slight surplus of 1.15 million tons in the global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season, with an expected 5.3% increase in production and a 0.95% increase in consumption [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The large - scale delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil will ease the supply shortage. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but it is likely to weaken later [11]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose and then fell on Tuesday. The USDA monthly report was bearish for US cotton but showed a 710,000 - ton reduction in global production, mainly from China and Australia. As of May 11, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 28% [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations will boost short - term cotton prices. The domestic cotton spinning industry has entered the off - season, with weak consumption and low imports, resulting in a slight reduction in inventory. Future focus should be on marginal changes in inventory [14]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Most egg prices in the country rose, and the downstream sales were mostly stable. Most traders' confidence in the future market declined [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The post - holiday inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure was large. The mid - term strategy is to sell on rebounds [17]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable, with some areas showing a weak trend. The market sales were average, and there was a game between supply and demand [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price has limited short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has a limited downward space. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds caused by sentiment [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The USDA monthly report on soybeans is slightly bullish, with a small expected decrease in the new US soybean crop production in the 25/26 season, stable export and domestic consumption estimates. However, in the short - term, both US and domestic soybean supplies are expected to be large, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal are likely to be range - bound. [2][5] - For oils, the mid - term has downward pressure due to the downward movement of the crude oil center and the recovery of palm oil production. But the upcoming release of new RVO rules in the US may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short - term. [12] - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. In the domestic market, the current production and sales situation is good, but as the price of the outer market falls and the import profit window re - opens, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to weaken. [13][14] - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks has boosted the short - term cotton price. The domestic cotton spinning industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. [16][17] - The supply pressure of eggs is relatively large, and the mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies before the low price significantly forces the culling of old chickens. [21] - For live pigs, the short - term spot price fluctuates little, and the futures price has limited downward space in the discount pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term sentiment. [23] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal Important Information - Overnight US soybeans closed higher due to the easing sentiment of the trade war. The USDA monthly report estimates a small decrease in the new US soybean crop production in the 25/26 season, flat crush volume, a small decline in exports, and a small reduction in inventory year - on - year. [2] - The US soybean planting progress has reached 48% as of last week, and the southern US soybean producing areas will have more rainfall in the next two weeks, with sporadic rainfall in the central region, so the planting progress is expected to be normal. [3] - The Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress is close to 60%, and the selling pressure may gradually decrease. The Brazilian soybean premium has dropped again under the current Sino - US easing situation. [3] - According to MYSTEEL estimates, the expected soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The oil mills are expected to crush 1.9085 million tons of soybeans this week, compared with 1.846 million tons last week. There is a strong trend of inventory accumulation for soybean meal and soybeans in the next three months in China. [2] Trading Strategy - The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Considering the low valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal, there is some room for rebound due to possible weather, trade easing, and US biodiesel policy expectations. In the short - term, they are expected to be range - bound, and further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel and production. [5] Oils Important Information - ITS and AMSPEC estimate that the exports of Malaysian palm oil increased by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April, 13.5% - 17% in the first 15 days, 11.9% in the first 20 days, 14.75% in the first 25 days, and 3.6% - 5.1% in the first 30 days. The high - frequency data from SPPOMA shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.97% in the first 15 days of April and 9.11% in the first 20 days. UOB and MPOA estimate an increase of more than 16% in the first 20 days and 17.03% in the first 30 days. [6] - The SPPOMA data shows that from May 1 - 5, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 61.58%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.59%, and the production increased by 60.17%. The ITS data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 10 was 293,991 tons, a 9% decrease compared with the same period last month. [6] - The industry association in the US soybean oil sector requests a significant increase in RVO, which is beneficial to the demand for US soybean oil and boosts its valuation. The domestic spot basis is fluctuating. [11] Trading Strategy - The mid - term of oils has downward pressure due to the downward movement of the crude oil center and the obvious recovery of palm oil production. But the upcoming release of new RVO rules in the US may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short - term, so it may be range - bound or slightly bullish. [12] Sugar Important Information - On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar September contract was 5,885 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in various regions also increased. [13] - In April, the single - month sugar sales in Guangxi were 657,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8,800 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 63.96%, a year - on - year increase of 6.03 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 2.3297 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 270,700 tons. In Yunnan, the single - month sugar sales in April were 280,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90,900 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 55.71%, a year - on - year increase of 9.18 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 1.047 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34,700 tons. [13] Trading Strategy - The large - scale delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil have alleviated the supply shortage. The price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. In the domestic market, the current production and sales situation is good, but as the outer - market price falls and the import profit window re - opens, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to weaken. [14] Cotton Important Information - On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded significantly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton September contract was 13,240 yuan/ton, a 2.24% increase from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also increased. [16] - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks has led to a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China has also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. [16] Trading Strategy - From a macro perspective, the progress in Sino - US talks has boosted the short - term cotton price. The domestic cotton spinning industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. [17] Eggs Spot Information - Most egg prices in the country rose yesterday, with a few remaining stable. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.17 yuan/jin. The supply increase is limited, the downstream digestion has improved, and most traders are more confident about the future market. It is expected that egg prices will mostly rise today, with a few remaining stable. [20] Trading Strategy - After the festival, the inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies before the low price significantly forces the culling of old chickens. [21] Live Pigs Spot Information - The domestic live pig prices were mainly stable yesterday, with some areas slightly weaker. The average price in Henan remained flat at 15.11 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 14.57 yuan/kg. The sales of live pigs are relatively slow, and it is difficult to raise prices, but the upstream is also reluctant to accept price cuts, and it is difficult for the slaughter end to force prices down. It is expected that live pig prices will be mainly stable today, with a few slightly decreasing. [22] Trading Strategy - The short - term spot price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the futures price has limited downward space in the discount pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term sentiment such as hoarding, secondary fattening, and stockpiling. [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of various oils showed different trends. BMD Malaysian palm oil and domestic palm oil futures prices declined, while ICE canola futures prices rose. The price of domestic rapeseed oil futures also increased, and the price of domestic soybean oil futures slightly decreased [4][7]. - After the holiday, palm oil was weak due to the arrival of the production - increasing season in the producing areas, a significant increase in production, limited support from export demand, and expected increases in domestic and foreign inventories. Canola prices continued to strengthen due to increased crushing demand and low domestic inventories. Domestic rapeseed oil was relatively strong because of expected import tightening. US soybean oil prices declined as the US biodiesel policy was not authorized and the budget might be cut [4][7]. - Macro - economically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations reached an important consensus, and the US stock market continued a small - scale rebound. The US dollar index might stabilize at a low level, and crude oil prices might stop falling and enter a volatile phase. Fundamentally, in the production - increasing cycle, production increased significantly, export demand improvement was limited, and domestic inventories were expected to rise. Palm oil might operate in a weak and volatile manner [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The price changes of various oil contracts from April 30 to May 9 are as follows: CBOT soybean oil main contract decreased by 0.33 cents/lb to 48.64 cents/lb, a decline of 0.67%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract decreased by 95 ringgit/ton to 3815 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.43%; DCE palm oil decreased by 262 yuan/ton to 7886 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.22%; DCE soybean oil decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 7780 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.66%; CZCE rapeseed oil increased by 58 yuan/ton to 9355 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62%. The futures price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 210 yuan/ton to - 106 yuan/ton, and the futures price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1575 yuan/ton. Spot prices also showed corresponding changes [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Trends**: After the holiday, palm oil was weak, canola strengthened, domestic rapeseed oil was relatively strong, and US soybean oil declined [4][7]. - **Production and Inventory Forecasts**: According to Reuters, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in April 2025 was expected to be 1.79 million tons, a 14.8% increase from March; production was expected to be 1.62 million tons, a 16.9% increase from March; and exports were expected to be 1.1 million tons, a 9.7% increase from March. As of May 2, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic areas was 1.7788 million tons, an increase of 0.0169 million tons from the previous week and 0.0998 million tons from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Macro - economically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations improved the market sentiment. Fundamentally, in the production - increasing cycle, production increased significantly, export demand improvement was limited, and domestic inventories were expected to rise. Palm oil might operate in a weak and volatile manner [4][11]. Industry News - **Indonesia's Biodiesel**: As of April 24, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year was 4.44 million liters, and the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel this year was 40%, higher than last year's 35% [12]. - **India's Oil Imports**: In April, India's palm oil imports decreased by 24% month - on - month to 322,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 2% to 363,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by nearly 6% to 180,000 tons. The total edible oil imports in April decreased by 11% month - on - month to 865,000 tons [12][13]. - **Myanmar's Palm Oil Market**: The wholesale reference price of palm oil in Yangon decreased from 6,735 kyats per viss (about 1.5 kg) last week to 6,700 kyats per viss. Myanmar imports about 700,000 tons of palm oil annually to meet domestic demand [13]. - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Production**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season was expected to be 19 million tons, with a less - than - 1% upward revision from the previous forecast. The production in both the Malaysian Peninsula and East Malaysia increased seasonally [14]. - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Production**: Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season was expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast. Although some areas faced local floods in April, it was not expected to hinder the overall crop recovery [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, price differences, import profits, and inventory changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and related products in Malaysia and Indonesia [16][17][18]

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: This week, the futures prices of edible oils showed a divergent trend. As the palm oil main - producing areas enter the peak production period, the inventory will significantly increase in the coming months, and the palm oil price at the origin is expected to continue to be under pressure. The increasing supply pressure is pushing the palm oil price center of gravity to decline continuously. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for palm oil at the origin is intensifying. The re - allocation of arbitrage funds temporarily eases the weakness of soybean oil and rapeseed oil and promotes the return of the price difference between edible oils to a normal level. With the arrival of the off - season for domestic edible oil demand and the successive arrival of imported soybeans, the factory operating rate will further increase, and the soybean oil inventory will enter the accumulation stage. In addition, factors such as the promotion of biodiesel policies and changes in the international trade situation will also affect the edible oil market. It is highly likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate widely [9][31]. Market Data Summary Spot Analysis - As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the futures main - contract price was 9,372 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton month - on - month. It was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [13]. Other Data - As of May 2, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 711,000 tons. On May 7, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 332,000 tons [17]. - As of May 8, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,207,280 tons [20]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past 5 years [21]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 664 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [22]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 145 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 0.66% to close at 7,780 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 3.22% to close at 7,886 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.62% to close at 9,355 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In terms of palm oil, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) showed that from April 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 24.62% month - on - month. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported a 17.03% month - on - month increase for the same period, and its data showed a 60.17% month - on - month increase in palm oil production from May 1 - 5. The palm oil production at the origin showed a strong upward trend, and the Malaysian palm oil price fell 1.68% [7][30]. - In terms of soybean oil, as of the week of May 4, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the market expectation of 31%, compared with 24% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 23%. The U.S. soybean emergence rate was 7%, compared with 8% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 5%. Overall, the start of the U.S. soybean season was normal, and the U.S. soybean price fell 0.57% this week [7][30].

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover various industries including oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, meal, livestock, and corn [1][3][4][7][9][12][14] - The date of the reports is May 8, 2025 [1][3][4][7][9][12][14] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil: Potential over - supply due to increased production may push down prices. Domestic palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil [1] - Soybean oil: Sino - US meeting may boost CBOT soybeans, but US biodiesel policy may limit the upside. In China, high basis and increasing supply may lead to a decline in basis quotes [1] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Different price changes are shown for spot and futures prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, along with basis, spreads, and inventory data [1] Group 3: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Supply concerns are alleviated with good starts in Brazil's new sugar - cane season and expected increase in India's sugar production. In China, the overall supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to be weak after the holiday [3] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of sugar show certain fluctuations, along with basis, spreads, and inventory data [3] - Industry Data: National and regional sugar production, sales, and inventory data show year - on - year changes [3] Group 4: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, macro factors dominate the market, and cotton prices may fluctuate. The downstream market is slightly weakening, and inventory is slightly accumulating [4] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of cotton show changes, along with basis, spreads, and inventory data [4] - Industry Data: Inventory, import volume, and textile - related data show month - on - month changes [4] Group 5: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Post - holiday replenishment has a limited impact on egg prices due to supply pressure. Egg prices may remain stable in May and decline in June. Short - selling is recommended for 06 and 07 contracts [7] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of eggs, along with related spreads and costs, show certain changes [7] Group 6: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans are following the decline of US soybean oil. Spring sowing is progressing well, and the supply pressure from Brazil is continuing. In China, the supply is recovering, and the basis is under pressure [9] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Spot and futures prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are presented, along with basis, spreads, and inventory data [9] Group 7: Livestock (Pig) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - During the May Day holiday, pig prices were stable. Secondary fattening may lead to more supply in May, and demand is weak. Pig prices are expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract has priced in the weak post - holiday expectation [12] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of pigs, along with related indicators such as slaughter volume, profit, and inventory, are shown [12] Group 8: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The corn market has a tight supply, and spot prices are strong. However, new wheat listing and policy releases may put pressure on prices. Corn prices are expected to be high and volatile in the short term and may rise in the long term [14][15] Summary by Catalog - Price Data: Futures and spot prices of corn and corn starch are presented, along with basis, spreads, and inventory data [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information regarding the report industry investment ratings provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Palm Oil**: The potential negative impact of increased production leading to a significant rise in inventory has caused the futures price to decline further and test the support at 3700 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures market is weak due to the influence of the Malaysian palm oil market, and it may test the previous low of around 7880 and could potentially break through and reach a new low [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The upcoming Sino - US meeting in Switzerland has led to an optimistic outlook on Sino - US trade relations, boosting the CBOT soybean market. A decrease in US soybean crushing margins may reduce factory production, which is positive for the market. However, the US biodiesel policy may have a negative impact. In China, high basis has led to low purchasing, and an increase in Brazilian soybean arrivals will raise factory production, potentially easing the current supply shortage [1]. - **Sugar**: The supply concerns have eased as the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season has started well, and the US Department of Agriculture predicts an increase in India's sugar production. In China, rainfall in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent, and future imports may determine the market trend. The overall supply - demand situation is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to remain weak after the holiday [3][4]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the macro environment dominates the market, and there may be significant fluctuations due to variables such as weather. The downstream market is slightly weakening, and finished - product inventories are accumulating slightly. Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the macro situation [5]. - **Eggs**: The downstream market has started post - holiday replenishment, but overall egg prices are stable with minor fluctuations due to supply pressure. The theoretical inventory of laying hens is expected to increase from May to June, which may have a negative impact on prices. In May, demand may support high - level stability, while in June, the supply - demand imbalance may lead to price drops. Short - selling is recommended for the 06 and 07 contracts [8]. - **Meal**: US soybeans have followed the decline of US soybean oil. The spring sowing progress is fast, and there is no weather - related speculation. The supply pressure from Brazil continues, and China's soybean arrivals are sufficient. In May, domestic arrivals are increasing, and oil - mill production is rising, but demand is not strong, putting pressure on the basis. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations [10]. - **Pigs**: During the May Day holiday, the live - pig spot price was stable, and the supply - demand relationship changed little. Second - fattening transactions declined in late April, and in May, the出栏 of previously second - fattened pigs may suppress the spot price. The demand is weak, and the pig price is expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract has factored in the post - holiday weakening expectation, and the market is expected to be stable with limited upward and downward movement [13]. - **Corn**: The market supply is tight, and the spot price is strong. The remaining grain at the grassroots level is less than half, and the selling enthusiasm in Northeast China is low. The downstream deep - processing industry has limited demand due to losses, and the breeding industry has limited growth due to wheat substitution. The port inventory needs to be digested, which restricts the price increase. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased breeding demand will support the price, but in the short - term, new wheat listings and policy releases may put pressure on the price [15][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Palm Oil**: On May 7, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from February 6. The futures price of P2509 was 8204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.68%. The basis was 346 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.11% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: On May 7, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from February 6. The futures price of Y2509 was 7900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Sugar**: On May 8, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%; the price of sugar 2509 was 5868 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The ICE raw - sugar main contract was 17.14 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.55% [3]. - **Cotton**: On May 8, the futures price of cotton 2509 was 12900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13090 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.16%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 67.40 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.62% [5]. - **Eggs**: On May 8, the futures price of the egg 09 contract was 3769 yuan/500KG, an increase of 0.21%; the price of the 06 contract was 2890 yuan/500KG, an increase of 0.21% [8]. - **Meal**: On May 8, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 2920 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2509 was 2565 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67% [10]. - **Pigs**: On May 8, the futures price of the pig 2507 contract was 13535 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26%; the price of the 2509 contract was 13985 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% [13]. - **Corn**: On May 8, the futures price of corn 2507 was 2369 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17%. The futures price of corn starch 2507 was 2745 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15% [15]. Spot Market - **Palm Oil**: On May 7, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from February 6 [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: On May 7, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from February 6 [1]. - **Sugar**: On May 8, the spot price in Nanning was 6160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%; the price in Kunming was 6015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% [3]. - **Cotton**: On May 8, the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 13839 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [5]. - **Eggs**: On May 8, the egg - producing area price was 3.18 yuan/jin, a decrease of 1.93% [8]. - **Meal**: On May 8, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Pigs**: On May 8, the spot price in Henan was 14980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Shandong was 15090 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Corn**: On May 8, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price of corn was 2320 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43%; the Changchun spot price of corn starch was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Industry Situation - **Sugar**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1074.79 million tons, an increase of 12.27% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 599.58 million tons, an increase of 26.64% year - on - year [3]. - **Cotton**: The commercial inventory was 451.52 million tons, a decrease of 6.7% month - on - month; the industrial inventory was 95.43 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% month - on - month [5]. - **Eggs**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 4.20 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.18%; the price of culled chickens was 5.24 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.96% [8]. - **Meal**: The soybean inventory was 26008, an increase of 59.83%; the rapeseed meal inventory was 23735, an increase of 51.18% [10]. - **Pigs**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 148474, a decrease of 1.31%; the weekly self - breeding profit was 85 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.09% [13]. - **Corn**: The north - south trade profit of corn was - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.81%; the weekly profit of corn starch in Shandong was - 174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% [15].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil may face renewed pressure in the short - term due to concerns about growing May production and slower export growth, with a long - term cautious and bearish view. Domestic palm oil futures are weak, and there is a risk of hitting new lows. CBOT soybeans are affected by potential changes in US biodiesel policies, while domestic soybeans have some support from post - holiday restocking and high order backlogs, but the basis may decline as supply increases [1]. Meal - US soybeans are falling with US soybean oil. The spring sowing progress is fast, and the Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. In May, domestic arrivals are recovering, oil mill operations are increasing, but demand is weak, so the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support around 2900 [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - During the May Day holiday, the live pig spot price was stable. In May, the secondary - fattened pigs are expected to be sold, which will suppress the spot price. The 09 contract has factored in the weak post - holiday expectation. The market has limited upside drivers but no basis for a sharp decline, and the post - holiday slaughter behavior of farmers should be monitored [6]. Corn - The corn supply is tight, and the spot price is strong. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and high port inventories limit the upside. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support the price. In the short - term, it will fluctuate at a high level and may be pressured by new wheat listings and policy releases. Attention should be paid to the 2240 pressure level [9]. Cotton - In the short - term, the cotton market is dominated by macro factors and may be volatile. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate, and macro trends should be closely watched [12]. Sugar - Supply concerns have eased as the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season has started well. In India, the 24/25 sugar - crushing season is nearing its end. In China, rainfall in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent. The overall domestic supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to fluctuate after the holiday [15]. Eggs - Post - holiday replenishment in the downstream market has slightly accelerated the egg sales, but due to supply pressure, the egg price is stable with minor fluctuations. In May, demand may support the price at a high level, while in June, the oversupply may drag down the price. Short - selling is recommended for the 06 and 07 contracts [17]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8240 yuan, down 0.72% from April 30. The futures price of Y2509 is 7900 yuan, down 1.03%. The basis has increased by 6.92%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 33.71% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price in Guangdong is 8620 yuan, down 1.49% from April 30. The futures price of P2509 is 8430 yuan, down 2.16%. The basis has increased by 41.79%. The import profit in Guangzhou Port in September has decreased by 487.05% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 9340 yuan, down 0.53% from April 30. The futures price of Ol509 is 9240 yuan, down 0.71%. The basis has increased by 19.05% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread has decreased by 12.90%, the palm oil 09 - 01 spread is unchanged, and the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread has increased by 4.20%. The soybean - palm oil spread has increased by 32.28%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread has decreased by 0.61% [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3200 yuan, down 5.88%. The futures price of M2509 is 2915 yuan, down 0.17%. The basis has decreased by 40.63%. The import profit from Brazil in June has increased by 4.3%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 21.5% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2500 yuan, up 0.81%. The futures price of RM2509 is 2548 yuan, up 0.47%. The basis has increased by 14.29%. The import profit from Canada in July has decreased by 675.00%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 12.14% [3]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, up 0.76%. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4209 yuan, up 0.50%. The basis has increased by 3.78%. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3640 yuan, up 0.55%. The futures price of the main soybean - two contract is 3536 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis has increased by 73.33%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 28.55% [3]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread has decreased by 4.26%, the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread is unchanged. The oil - meal ratio in the spot market has increased by 5.48%, and in the main contract, it has decreased by 0.75%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market has decreased by 23.91%, and in the 2509 contract, it has decreased by 4.43% [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract has increased by 25.93% to 1020 yuan/ton. The prices of the 2507 and 2509 contracts have increased by 0.41% and 0.36% respectively. The 7 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.08%. The main contract's open interest has increased by 1.48%, and the number of warehouse receipts is unchanged [6]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions have different changes. For example, the price in Henan has increased by 260 yuan/ton, while in Liaoning, it has decreased by 250 yuan/ton. The daily slaughter volume has decreased by 0.87%, the weekly white - strip price has decreased by 100.00%, the weekly piglet price has increased by 0.22%, the weekly sow price is unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight has increased by 0.22%, the weekly self - breeding profit has decreased by 15.09%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit has decreased by 9.49%, and the monthly sow inventory has decreased by 0.66% [6]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the 2507 contract is 2365 yuan, down 0.50%. The Jinzhou Port flat - storage price has increased by 1.32%. The basis has increased by 43.30%. The 7 - 9 spread has increased by 6.67%. The Shekou bulk grain price has increased by 1.29%. The north - south trade profit is unchanged. The CIF price has decreased by 1.27%, and the import profit has increased by 46.19%. The number of early - morning vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased by 67.79%. The open interest has decreased by 4.45%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 3.53% [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2507 contract is 2741 yuan, down 0.25%. The Changchun spot price and the Weifang delivery price are unchanged. The basis has increased by 5.47%. The 7 - 9 spread has increased by 7.35%. The starch - corn spread has increased by 1.35%. The Shandong starch profit has decreased by 3.01%. The open interest has increased by 0.83%, and the number of warehouse receipts is unchanged [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract is 12745 yuan, down 0.04%. The price of the 2601 contract is 12940 yuan, down 0.15%. The ICE US cotton main contract has decreased by 1.04%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 7.14%. The main contract's open interest has increased by 1.11%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 0.69%, and the valid forecast has decreased by 9.20% [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B has decreased by 0.57%, the CC Index: 3128B has decreased by 0.49%, the FC Index:M: 1% has increased by 1.84%. The spreads between 3128B and the 01 and 05 contracts have decreased by 6.30% and 6.11% respectively. The spread between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% has decreased by 50.32% [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial inventory has decreased by 6.7%, the industrial inventory has decreased by 0.5%, the import volume has decreased by 41.7%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 2.2%, the textile industry's inventory year - on - year has decreased by 4.4%, the yarn inventory days have increased by 3.3%, the grey - cloth inventory days have increased by 1.6%, the cotton outbound shipment volume has increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 6.5%, the clothing and textile retail sales are N/A, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and textile retail sales has increased by 9.1%, the textile yarn and fabric export volume has increased by 93.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn and fabric exports has increased by 163.1%, and the clothing and apparel export volume has increased by 68.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and apparel exports has increased by 130.7% [12]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract is 5742 yuan, down 0.07%. The price of the 2509 contract is 5890 yuan, up 0.05%. The ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 0.11%. The 1 - 9 spread has decreased by 4.96%. The main contract's open interest has decreased by 0.28%, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 0.42%. The valid forecast is unchanged [15]. - **Spot**: The Nanning price has decreased by 0.24%, the Kunming price has decreased by 0.25%. The Nanning basis has decreased by 6.04%, and the Kunming basis has decreased by 12.16%. The imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) price has decreased by 1.23%, and the out - of - quota price has decreased by 1.27%. The spread between in - quota Brazilian sugar and the Nanning price has decreased by 3.72%, and the spread between out - of - quota Brazilian sugar and the Nanning price has decreased by 56.52% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national sugar production cumulative value has increased by 12.27%, the national sugar sales cumulative value has increased by 26.64%. The Guangxi sugar production cumulative value has increased by 5.83%, and the monthly sales value has increased by 6.01%. The national cumulative sugar - sales rate has increased by 12.80%, and the Guangxi cumulative sugar - sales rate has increased by 12.73%. The national industrial inventory has decreased by 1.79%, the Guangxi industrial inventory has decreased by 6.50%, the Yunnan industrial inventory has increased by 0.12%. Sugar imports have increased by 600.00% [15]. Eggs - **Price and Spread**: The price of the 09 contract is 3761 yuan/500KG, down 0.79%. The price of the 06 contract is 2884 yuan, down 1.97%. The egg - producing area price has decreased by 0.88%. The basis has increased by 11.25%. The 9 - 6 spread has decreased by 3.21%. The egg - chicken chick price has decreased by 1.18%, the culled - chicken price has increased by 0.96%, the egg - feed ratio has increased by 1.51%, and the breeding profit has increased by 29.39% [17].

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月7日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | гнен | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8240 | 8300 | -60 | -0.72% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7900 | 7982 | -82 | -1.03% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 340 | 318 | 22 | 6.92% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 09+420 | 09+380 | 40 | - | | | 仓单 | | 5355 | 4005 | 1350 | 33.71% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 2月6日 | 4月30日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8620 | 8750 | -130 | -1.49% | | | ...