日本央行：多个地区表示，美国关税对出口和产出的影响目前有限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the U.S. and South Korea regarding military funding and troop presence, highlighting Trump's demands for increased payments and the potential implications for regional security and alliances [1][3][5][7]. Group 1: Military Funding and Demands - Trump demands South Korea to increase its annual payment for U.S. military presence to $10 billion, threatening to withdraw 4,500 troops if not met [1][3]. - In 2024, South Korea agreed to pay $1.13 billion as "protection fees," but Trump rejected this agreement, insisting on higher payments [3]. - Additional tariffs of 25% on South Korean imports are set to take effect, impacting key sectors like semiconductors and automobiles unless market access is granted [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Military Movements - The potential withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea may lead to their relocation to Guam, as part of a broader strategy to counter China in the Taiwan Strait [3][5]. - Concerns arise over Guam's military readiness, with simulations indicating a survival rate of less than 40% in the event of conflict [3]. Group 3: Regional Alliances and Reactions - The U.S. actions have strained its long-standing alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, with South Korean lawmakers discussing nuclear armament and public protests against U.S. military presence [5][7]. - Japan and the Philippines are reportedly accelerating their military capabilities, indicating a shift towards self-reliance in defense [5]. - North Korea may exploit the situation to advance its nuclear ambitions, raising fears of an arms race in the region [5][7]. Group 4: Implications for U.S. Hegemony - The article suggests that Trump's tactics reflect a desperate attempt to maintain U.S. dominance, which may ultimately backfire and weaken alliances [7]. - South Korea faces a dilemma of either continuing to pay high "protection fees" or risking U.S. military withdrawal, highlighting the precarious nature of U.S. influence in the region [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's immigration and education policies may lead to a potential loss of nearly $900 million in revenue for U.S. higher education institutions in the upcoming academic year, impacting not only their financial health but also the global education landscape and the international reputation of the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Higher Education - International students are a significant source of revenue for U.S. colleges, contributing to tuition income and enhancing diversity and internationalization [3][4] - The Trump administration has tightened policies for foreign students, including restrictions on entry from certain countries and stricter visa scrutiny, which has led to a decline in international student enrollment [3][4] - The reliance on international students for both revenue and academic contributions highlights the vulnerability of U.S. colleges to these policy changes [4][6] Group 2: Broader Implications - The policies reflect deeper issues within the U.S. education system, including rising costs and stagnant domestic student numbers, which have diminished the competitiveness of U.S. higher education [6][9] - The potential loss of international students could lead to a global talent drain, with students seeking education in countries like Canada, Australia, and the UK instead [6][7] - The financial loss of $900 million may be just the tip of the iceberg, indicating a larger crisis in U.S. education and a shift in global talent mobility [7][9] Group 3: Globalization vs. Nationalism - Trump's policies illustrate the growing tension between globalization and nationalism, undermining the role of education as a bridge for cultural and knowledge exchange [9][10] - The decline in international student enrollment could hinder global knowledge sharing and collaboration, negatively affecting research and innovation [9][10] - U.S. higher education institutions must reassess their strategies to maintain global competitiveness while navigating the challenges posed by nationalist policies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 947.37 tons of gold as of July 9, 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 9, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 947.37 tons of gold, an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous day [6]. - The report indicates a significant change in gold ETF holdings, which is crucial for understanding market trends [1][3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On July 9, gold prices experienced a drop to a low of $3282.91 per ounce before rebounding to close at $3313.5 per ounce, marking an increase of $11.94 or 0.36% [6]. - The price fluctuations were primarily driven by a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, alongside optimistic investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 3: Market Influences - The recent strength in employment data has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant unwinding of long positions in Treasury futures [6]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding the timing and necessity of future rate cuts, with most expecting a potential cut later in the year [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold has weakened, with the price breaking the upward channel formed since mid-February [6]. - Key support levels are identified at $3297 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $3200, while resistance is noted at $3345 (21-day moving average) and $3375 (23.6% Fibonacci level) [6].

图片来源： a16z Z Highlights Marc Andreessen 与 Ben Horowitz 是 a16z 联合创始人，长期在硅谷风险投资界引领技术叙事、推动公司演化， Erik Torenberg 为 a16z 普通合伙人，主持本 场对谈。本次对谈录制于 2025 年 a16z LP 峰会现场，聚焦 a16z 如何应对 AI 浪潮、重塑风投模型与媒体影响力。 a16z 第一阶段：用 " 产品思维 " 重塑风险投资 Erik Torenberg ： 欢迎来到 Marc 和 Ben 的现场访谈。我们最喜欢的风险投资 " 夫妇 " 又来了。说他们是 " 夫妇 " 是有点玩笑成分的，他们的关系并不总 是那么和谐，浪漫更是早已消散 —— 但这正是我们喜欢看的。好吧， Ben ，我们来聊聊公司的发展。你最近提到，自从 2009 年公司创立以来，整个风险 投资行业经历的变化，比此前 30 年还要剧烈。那你说说看，我们公司的 " 第一幕 " 和 " 第二幕 " 分别是什么？ Ben Horowitz ： 我们现在正处在什么位置？第一幕嘛，其实我们进入的，是一个几十年来从未真正发生变化的风险投资行业。风险投资 ...

本文来自彭博终端。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 伴随行业飞速发展、地缘政治博弈、供需天平摇摆…全球能源市场时刻处于动荡之中。彭博行 业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您及时传递行业动态，并基于高质量数据、模型与分析 助您解读市场变化，看见全局、看向前景。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博能源行业研究双周报 2025年6月全球矿业市场回顾 铜矿增长预期可能过于乐观 根据公司指引、一致预期和彭博行业研究，我们所涵盖的1 7家铜生产商（矿产铜产量占全球 供应量的4 5%）预计未来五年的复合年增长率将达到2 . 9%，到2 0 2 6年将增长6 - 6 . 5%。这与 过去五年约1%的复合年增长率大相径庭。2 0 2 6年产量大幅提升的关键因素包括：第一量子 矿业（First Qu a n t um）重启其科布雷巴拿马（Co b r e Pa n ama）矿场、艾芬豪（I v a n h o e） 的Kamo a -Ka k u l a在地震事件后的产量恢复、力拓（Ri o）旗下蒙古奥尤陶勒盖（Oy u To l g o i）铜矿产量增加、全球最大的铜矿埃斯康迪达（Es c o n ...

周三，美国总统特朗普再次批评美联储主席鲍威尔， 称美联储设定的利率至少偏高3个百分 点。他呼吁美联储降息以帮助降低偿还国家债务成本 。这是鲍威尔连续第二天批评鲍威尔。 此前一天，特朗普在内阁会议发表讲话时表示，鲍威尔应立即辞职。他指责称，鲍威尔几个月 来一直在抱怨根本不存在的通胀，拒绝采取正确的行动。 交易员预计，特朗普的批评不会改变联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在7月会议上的决策。据 CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率高达93.3.7%，而降息25个基点的概率 仅为6.7%。 美国副财长：希望鲍威尔卸任美联储理事 周三，美国财政部副部长迈克尔·福尔肯德也对鲍威尔发起攻击。他表示， 自己希望看到鲍威 尔在明年5月其主席任期结束后，从美联储理事会卸任 。 特朗普称，鲍威尔设定的利率(高出的)每个百分点，每年就会给美国造成了3600亿美元的再 融资成本。 "我们的美联储利率至少高了3个百分点，" 特朗普在Truth Social上写道。他表示， 美国当前"没有通胀，公司涌入美国"，并呼吁"降低利率" 。 美国联邦基金利率目标区间目前为4.25%-4.50%。如果美联储按照特朗普呼吁的幅度降息， 利 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 2025-07-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆生长天气良好丰产预期压制盘面，美豆短期千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，美 豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期回归区 间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2780（华东），基差-167，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存82.24万吨，上周69.16万吨，环比增加18.91%，去年同期108.27万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...

吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 2025 年 07 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：贸易忧虑、美豆收跌，连粕或偏弱震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4111 +21 | （+0.51%） | 4108 -4（-0.10%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2947 +9 | （+0.31%） | 2947 +7（+0.24%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1007.25 | -10.5（-1.03%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 282.9 | -1.5（-0.53%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2820～2880， 较昨持平； M2601+60/+80/+100/+110， | 8月M2509-30； ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on all imported copper by the U.S. President has led to a significant surge in copper futures prices, reaching historical highs, indicating potential market volatility and cost pressures across various sectors in the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - On July 8, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange saw an intraday increase of 17%, peaking at a record price of $5.8955 per pound, marking the largest single-day increase since 1989 [1] - The closing price for copper futures on the same day was $5.68 per pound, reflecting a 13% increase [1] Group 2: Tariff Implementation - The new copper tariff is expected to take effect by the end of July or August 1, as indicated by the U.S. Secretary of Commerce [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Analysts believe that the market had not anticipated such a high tariff, leading to a surge in copper purchases before the tariff takes effect, which will likely drive prices up in the short term [1] - However, as domestic copper inventories in the U.S. increase, the price surge is expected to stabilize [1] Group 4: Industry Impact - Copper is the third most consumed metal globally, essential for various applications in electronics, construction, and industrial equipment, indicating that the tariff could significantly impact multiple sectors, including automotive and electrical infrastructure [1] - In 2024, the total value of copper imports to the U.S. is projected to reach $17 billion, accounting for about half of total demand, with Chile being the largest supplier, exporting $6 billion worth of copper to the U.S. last year [1]