分类型来看，货币基金在7月实现规模猛增3813.84亿元，QDII基金也增长超460亿。 股票基金和混合基金的规模在7月也分别增长1925.94亿、1385.56亿元，但份额却小幅下降。这意味着，随着市场回暖和基金收益上行，一些回本或减亏 的投资者正在赎回权益类产品。 股票市场回暖之际，公募基金总规模也再度实现突破。 7月底，我国公募基金总规模达35.08万亿元，首破35万亿元，并自2024年初以来第十次创历史新高。 此外，其他类型基金实现规模增长时，债券基金总规模却在7月下降。这是因为，在"股债跷跷板"效应的影响下，债券基金 正面临一定的赎回压力。不 过业内人士认为，债市未来仍有中长期配置价值，且随着债市的配置价值愈发突出，权益行情对于债市的压制在持续减弱。 公募基金总规模首次突破35万亿元 中基协发布的最新公募基金市场数据显示，截至2025年7月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共164家，其中基金管理公司149家，取得公募资格的资产管 理机构15家。 2024年，我国公募基金总规模分别在当年的2月底、4月底、5月底、7月底、9月底、12月底六次创下历史新高。 2025年，我国公募基金总规模在4月底达到33.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - After two consecutive weeks of adjustment in the bond market since mid - August, the decline has exceeded the previous round in late July, resulting in a certain degree of cost - effectiveness. Currently, the strategy should prioritize liquidity. There are opportunities in 3 - 5 - year bank secondary capital bonds after adjustment, and it is also advisable to participate in the sinking of weak - quality urban investment bonds with a maturity of 1 - 3 years. However, the ultra - long - term strategy may not be a good choice due to high market uncertainty [3][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Adjustment and Bond Performance - Since mid - August, the bond market has been continuously adjusting for two weeks, especially last week's adjustment exceeding expectations. Credit bonds declined synchronously, and the decline of major maturity varieties was higher than that of interest rates. The stock - bond "seesaw" effect continued, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, and the bond market being insensitive to fundamental indicators, resulting in a continuous decline and rising yields [1][9] - From August 18 to 22, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y treasury bonds increased by 0.4BP, 3.2BP, 9.7BP, 8.1BP, and 3.8BP respectively. The yields of AAA medium - and short - term notes with the same maturities increased by 4.9BP, 6.6BP, 5.8BP, 7.6BP, and 4.6BP respectively, and the yields of AA+ medium - and short - term notes increased by 4.9BP, 6.6BP, 7.8BP, 6.6BP, and 5.6BP respectively [9][10] - The market of ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened synchronously, with most of the declines exceeding those of the same - maturity interest - rate bonds. The decline of highly liquid ultra - long - term secondary and perpetual bonds was the lowest, while the decline of ultra - long - term urban investment bonds with the poorest liquidity was relatively large. The yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y medium - term notes increased by 6.00BP and 7.00BP respectively, and the yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y urban investment bonds increased by 13.01BP and 11.00BP respectively. The yield of AAA - 10Y bank secondary capital bonds increased by 6.69BP, while the yield of 10Y treasury bonds increased by 3.53BP [11][12] 2. Performance of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds - The market of secondary and perpetual bonds weakened synchronously, but the "volatility amplifier" feature was not obvious. The declines of 1Y - 5Y were similar to those of general credit bonds, and the decline gap in the ultra - long - term part was also close to that of ultra - long - term credit bonds. Currently, the part of the curve with a maturity of 3 years and above is still 25BP - 35BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025. Compared with the sharp decline at the end of July, the yield points of bonds with a maturity of over 3 years have reached new highs, and the adjustment amplitude is higher than that of the sharp decline at the end of July [2][16] - In terms of active trading, the sentiment was the most pessimistic in the second week of August. Although the market was still adjusting last week, the marginal sentiment of secondary and perpetual bonds improved. From August 11 to 15, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of secondary and perpetual bonds was 5.00%, 0.00%, 100.00%, 5.00%, and 0.00% respectively, and the average trading duration was 0.74 years, 1.02 years, 3.81 years, 1.53 years, and 1.12 years respectively. From August 18 to 22, the proportion of low - valuation transactions was 0.00%, 100.00%, 17.07%, 100.00%, and 100.00% respectively, and the average trading duration was 0.65 years, 4.73 years, 1.03 years, 5.66 years, and 3.30 years respectively [2][18] 3. Institutional Behavior - Public funds and other trading desks continued to sell, but it was more of a portfolio rebalancing rather than a full - scale reduction. At the same time, allocation desks such as wealth management and insurance institutions moderately bought during the adjustment. Public funds reduced their holdings of secondary bonds of national and joint - stock banks with a maturity of 3 - 5 years, with the total selling scale in the past two weeks approaching 20 billion, but they also increased their holdings of secondary capital bonds with a maturity of 1 - 3 years. Public funds were not very willing to sell their core assets such as weak - quality urban investment bonds [3][29] - Allocation desks such as bank wealth management and insurance institutions bought opportunistically after the sharp decline in the bond market, but they were also cautious about the maturity, mainly focusing on varieties with a maturity of 3 years and below. Since August, the increase in the liability side of wealth management products has been limited, and the demand is not strong, but it is not a full - scale redemption [3][29] 4. Performance of Credit Bond ETF Products - Credit bond ETF products performed poorly during the market adjustment in the past two weeks, with weak scale growth and net - value performance. In terms of scale change, the weekly scale of credit benchmark market - making ETF products has shrunk for two consecutive weeks since the market adjustment in the second week of August, and the weekly scale of science and technology innovation ETF products has been significantly weaker in August than in July. In terms of unit net - value change, the unit net values of the above two types of credit bond ETFs have suffered losses for two consecutive weeks, and the loss scale increased last week. In addition, the average turnover rate of the above two types of credit bond ETFs dropped to a new low last week [33]

Group 1: Global Market Insights - Powell's speech at the global central bank conference was overall dovish, increasing expectations for rate cuts in Q4, leading to weaker US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, resulting in a rebound in US stocks and a significant rise in gold prices [1] - The expectation of financial conditions easing before the Fed's rate cut is temporarily beneficial for non-US markets [4][6] Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - The A-share market is experiencing a rapid upward trend with increased inflow of funds, particularly through margin trading, and a notable rise in trading volume [3] - The bond market continued its downward trend, influenced by risk appetite, despite underlying support from fundamentals and liquidity [2] - The current bond market levels present value for allocation, but short-term risk appetite fluctuations remain, suggesting a strategy of opportunistic allocation during adjustments [2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - The oil market is facing weak demand projections for 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices, while geopolitical changes may cause short-term volatility [5] - The gold market is expected to perform well in the short term due to the anticipated easing of financial conditions before the Fed's rate cut [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward space for the bond market is relatively limited. The redemption of funds is a short - term shock, and the bond - allocation behavior of wealth management products remains stable with a controllable redemption pressure. Also, current interest rate levels have reached the desired points of left - side institutions, which can reduce the risk of a significant rise in interest rates. However, the hot stock market suppresses the bond market due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. Institutions with stable liability ends can look for allocation opportunities and buy on the dips, while those with unstable liability ends need to wait for further long - buying opportunities [2][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Recent Institutional Behavior Changes - **Trading Disk**: Funds faced a significant increase in redemption this week, with a net cash - bond selling volume exceeding 200 billion yuan. The selling was mainly concentrated from Monday to Wednesday and weakened later. Rural financial institutions continued their left - side trading strategy, actively entering the market on price increases [11][12]. - **Allocation Disk**: Although wealth management products have been redeeming funds in the past two weeks, their bond allocation did not shrink significantly. They increased their positions in credit bonds and secondary - tier perpetual bonds after getting more liquidity from fund redemptions. Insurance companies' motivation for bond allocation increased significantly when the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds rose above 1.9% - 1.95%, and their net bond - buying volume returned to a high level this week [16][19]. 3.2 Institutional Bond Custody No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented [22]. 3.3 Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Price**: Liquidity slightly eased this week. R007 closed at 1.48%, remaining basically unchanged from last week, DR007 closed at 1.47%, down 1BP from last week, and the 6 - month state - owned and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount rate closed at 0.64%, down 4BP from last week [3][29]. - **Financing Situation**: The balance of inter - bank pledged reverse repurchase this week was 1,160.634 billion yuan, a 1.8% decrease from last week. Fund companies and wealth management products had net financings of - 79.74 billion yuan and - 75.84 billion yuan respectively [32]. 3.4 Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Fund Duration**: The duration of top - performing interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds this week were 6.71 and 5.52 respectively, down 0.11 and 0.26 from last week [42]. - **"Asset Shortage" Index**: The "asset shortage" index decreased [4]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: Signals for secondary - tier capital bonds, ultra - long treasury bonds, and 10 - year local bonds are presented through various indicators, but no specific analysis is provided [52][55][58]. - **Institutional Leverage**: The overall market leverage ratio was 107.1% this week, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among them, the leverage ratio of insurance institutions was 117.6%, up 0.5 percentage points; that of funds was 101.8%, down 1.0 percentage points; and that of securities firms was 211.9%, up 8.3 percentage points [60]. - **Bank Self - operation Comparison Table**: Data on nominal yields, tax costs, and yields after considering tax and risk capital for various assets such as general loans, 10 - year treasury bonds, and 10 - year AAA - rated local bonds are presented [64]. 3.5 Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Funds**: Relevant charts show the weekly establishment scale of various types of funds and the annualized yield distribution of funds in 2025, but no specific analysis is provided [66]. - **Wealth Management Products**: The overall market's wealth management product break - even rate increased slightly this week, reaching 1.7% [67]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented [73]. 3.7 General Asset Management Pattern The scale changes of various asset management sectors such as private funds, securities firm asset management, and public funds from 2017 to 2025 are presented through a chart [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current bond market is in a headwind period, with the "slow bull in stocks and non - continuous sharp decline in bonds" state likely to continue due to liquidity and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury yield may face two - stage pressure levels: 1.80% and 1.90%. However, the resistance at 1.80% and the difficulty of breaking through 1.90% are relatively high [2][22]. - If three out of four conditions are met in the second half of this year, the probability of the domestic central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is very high. Currently, three conditions are gradually being met, and if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, the probability of the People's Bank of China synchronously lowering the OMO rate in the fourth quarter may increase. Then, the bond market will shift from a headwind period to a tailwind period [3][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest - rate Bond Data Review for Last Week - **Funds Rate**: In the week of August 18th, the funds rate first rose and then fell. DR001, R001, DR007, and FR007 all showed fluctuations in the same period [8]. - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase volume reached 2.08 trillion yuan, with a total maturity of 711.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 1.37 trillion yuan, which is a relatively large net injection this month [8]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion range of the Sino - US bond yield spread has shown differentiation. The inversion range of the 6 - month interest rate spread has slightly increased, while the inversion range of the 2 - year and 10 - year bond yield spreads has slightly decreased [13]. - **Term Spread**: The term spread of Chinese bonds remained unchanged, while that of US bonds slightly widened. The 10 - 2 - year term spread of Chinese bonds was 35BP, and that of US bonds was 58BP [15]. - **Interest - rate Term Structure**: The yield curve of Chinese bonds changed little, while that of US bonds shifted downward. The yield of Chinese bonds from 3 - month to 1 - year decreased by 2BP, and that from 5 - to 10 - year decreased by 1BP; the overall yield of US bonds decreased by more than 5BP [16]. 3.2 High - frequency Real - estate Data Tracking - **First - tier Cities**: In the week of August 22nd, the commercial housing transactions in first - tier cities were in a low - level oscillation state. The daily average transaction area was 57,500 square meters, and the daily average transaction volume was 532 units. The market fluctuated significantly, with the highest point on August 20th and the lowest on August 24th [25]. - **Ten Major Cities**: The commercial housing transaction data of ten major cities rebounded compared with last week, with an average daily transaction area of about 103,700 square meters, an increase of about 20,000 square meters per day compared with last week [25]. - **30 Large and Medium - sized Cities**: The commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The daily average transaction area was about 220,000 square meters, and the daily average transaction volume was about 2,566 units. The transaction area and volume reached the weekly peak on August 22nd [25].

Group 1 - The stock market has strengthened recently, while the bond market faces resistance in its rebound, indicating a continued "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1] - Analysts believe that the short-term suppressive effect of a strong stock market on the bond market is likely to weaken over time [1] - The yield on 10-year government bonds is approaching the 1.8% mark, suggesting limited upward space, but there is slight rebound momentum in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The rebound potential in the bond market is constrained by the strong stock market and cautious sentiment in the bond market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is far from entering a bear market, and the current adjustment is mainly a risk release from previous over - gains. The low - interest environment is an important driver for the A - share market, and the probability of domestic monetary policy turning tight is limited as the policy is still promoting inflation. [2] - The domestic bond curve structure has broken many historical rules since 2024 due to the change in the economic model. The uncertainty of monetary policy restricts the space for spread compression, and the emotional impact of the equity market's rise on the bond market has been magnified. [2] - The central bank's target for the DR001 central level may not have been adjusted. The impact of equity market fluctuations on the capital side is short - term. The recent tightening of funds may be due to the central bank's tolerance of increased capital fluctuations after the relatively low DR001 average in the first half of August. [2][34] - The so - called "deposit relocation" is a false proposition. It is essentially a result of the increase in residents' risk appetite. The bond market's right - side opportunity still needs to wait, and if the equity market continues to rise, the bond market may face more disturbances. [35][40][45] - The bond market's space may be opened when the economy continues to weaken and forces the policy to turn more accommodative. If economic data continues to deteriorate for a quarter and credit demand does not improve, the probability of a policy rate cut or reserve requirement ratio cut cannot be excluded, which may improve the bond market's odds. [3][60] - Although the recent rise in the equity market has brought disturbances, it does not constitute a sufficient condition for the bond market to turn bearish. The upside space for interest rates is limited, and large - scale bond allocation should wait for the right - side signal. [62] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 The Risks in the Bond Market Are Mainly from Previous Over - gains - Low - interest environments drive the equity market. Overseas experience shows that the long - term low - interest environment lasted until after the pandemic, and domestic policy is still promoting inflation, so the probability of monetary policy tightening is low. Domestic bond bear markets have always been accompanied by monetary tightening, so the current bond market is not in a bear market, and the risks are from previous over - gains. [9] - Since 2024, the 10Y - 1Y Treasury bond spread and the 1Y certificate of deposit - overnight interest rate spread have been significantly compressed, which reflects the change in the economic model. However, there is no historical experience on how much the spread can be compressed. In China, the central bank's unclear guidance on future policy rates restricts the spread compression space. Without new factors such as interest rate cut expectations or central bank bond purchases, the spread compression may have reached its limit, and the rise of the equity market magnifies the disturbance to the bond market. [15][20][24] 3.2 The Central Bank's Target for the DR001 Central Level May Not Have Been Adjusted, and the Impact of Equity Market Fluctuations on the Capital Side Is Short - term - The Q2 monetary policy report's mention of "preventing capital idling" and the significant tightening of funds during the tax - payment period in August may not be fully explained by tax - payment outflows. The central bank may tolerate increased capital fluctuations in the second half of August due to the relatively low DR001 average in the first half. [25][34] - North - exchange new - share subscription freezing funds mainly affect the exchange - based capital price directly, and the impact on the inter - bank market is indirect and short - term. If the capital market fluctuations exceed the central bank's acceptable range, the central bank will take measures to hedge. [28][30][34] 3.3 Deposit Relocation Is a False Proposition, and the Bond Market Waits for the Right - side Signal under the Change in Risk Appetite - Stocks and bonds have different risk - return characteristics and investor groups. The rise of the equity market may not necessarily lead to a reversal in the bond market direction. The so - called "deposit relocation" is actually a result of the increase in residents' risk appetite. [35][40] - Referring to the 2015 experience, the end of the A - share market's upward trend may require the large - scale entry of leveraged funds and subsequent policy restrictions. Currently, the A - share market has not reached the bubble stage, but the increasing volatility indicates an increased risk of a phased adjustment. [42] - Although there is no widespread redemption in the bond market, if the equity market continues to rise, the bond market may face more disturbances. The bond market's stabilization may require an increase in low - risk preference allocation forces, but currently, the allocation forces have not been able to stabilize interest rates, and the right - side opportunity still needs to wait. [45] 3.4 The Bond Market's Space May Be Opened When the Economy Continues to Weaken and Forces the Policy to Turn More Accommodative - The July economic data shows that the domestic economy has faced pressure in Q3. Consumption, investment, and exports have all shown signs of decline, and the impact of anti - involution policies on the demand side is significant. Although the government has proposed some policies, their scale is limited, and the effect on the economy needs further observation. [47][49][53] - In July, financial data was weak, with negative growth in new credit. Although the central bank has shown some support for the real economy through interest rate adjustments, considering last year's interest rate decline mainly in Q3, the year - on - year decline in lending rates may narrow significantly after September. If economic data continues to deteriorate for a quarter and credit demand does not improve, the probability of a policy rate cut or reserve requirement ratio cut cannot be excluded, which may improve the bond market's odds. [57][60] 3.5 The Upside Space for Interest Rates Is Limited, and Large - Scale Bond Allocation Should Wait for the Right - side Signal - The recent rise in the equity market does not constitute a sufficient condition for the bond market to turn bearish. The short - term weakness of bonds is due to previous over - declines, low interest rates, and reduced probability of short - term central bank easing. The upside space for interest rates is limited, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield's upside is generally within 20BP. Large - scale bond allocation should wait for the right - side signal, and current trading should be fast - in - and - fast - out with timely profit - taking. [62]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that since mid-August, the marginal contraction of the funding environment has led to an increase in bond market interest rates, influenced by strong stock market performance and rising demands for exchange rate stability [1][2][3] - The funding environment has contracted due to several factors, including strong stock market performance causing a shift of household deposits into the stock market, which disrupts liquidity [6][10] - The demand for exchange rate stability has increased, leading to tighter funding conditions as maintaining higher funding and short-term interest rates helps alleviate pressure on the RMB exchange rate [7][10] Group 2 - As of August 22, the DR001 rate has risen to 1.41%, indicating a tightening of the funding environment despite the central bank's liquidity injections remaining unchanged [2][3] - The net funding outflow from major banks has decreased to 3.88 trillion yuan as of August 21, down by 0.95 trillion yuan from the previous week, reflecting the impact of the funding contraction [10] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report maintains a loose monetary policy stance but emphasizes the need to prevent "funds from being diverted," indicating increased uncertainty in the funding environment [10][13] Group 3 - The bond market faces uncertainty regarding funding rates, with limited marginal easing, making it difficult to drive bond market interest rates down [13] - The strong sentiment in the stock market and the clear "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds indicate rising risk appetite, which suppresses bond market performance [13] - The previous deflation expectations have been corrected, and the insufficient recovery of interest rates suggests that a stable outlook for the bond market is not yet in sight, requiring further waiting for buying opportunities [13]

Market Review - The bond market experienced an overall adjustment with most yields rising, including a 1.75 basis point increase in the 1-year government bond yield to 1.3775%, a 4 basis point increase in the 10-year yield to 1.7850%, and a 4.35 basis point increase in the 30-year yield to 2.0375% [13][14] - Credit bond yields generally rose, with spreads widening [13] - The US Treasury yields fluctuated downwards, with the 1-year yield decreasing by 0.06% to 3.87% and the 10-year yield down 0.06% to 4.26% [15] REITs Market - The REITs market continued to weaken, with the CSI REITs total return index declining by 1.74% over the week, particularly in the rental housing and water infrastructure sectors [15][16] - As of August 22, 2025, there were 23 public REITs awaiting listing, including 12 new issues and 11 expansions [15] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The bond ETF market is experiencing rapid expansion, with the second batch of products being submitted for approval, including 14 new bond ETFs tracking various indices [17] - The total scale of the first batch of technology innovation bond ETFs exceeded 120 billion yuan, growing over 300% since their initial issuance [17] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The money market enhancement index rose by 0.02% last week, with a cumulative return of 3.96% since inception [18] - The short-term bond fund index remained flat, with a cumulative return of 4.12% since inception [19] - The medium to long-term bond fund index fell by 0.16%, with a cumulative return of 6.13% since inception [20] - The low volatility fixed income + fund index rose by 0.19%, with a cumulative return of 3.51% since inception [21] - The medium volatility fixed income + fund index rose by 0.60%, with a cumulative return of 4.24% since inception [22] - The high volatility fixed income + fund index rose by 0.83%, with a cumulative return of 6.05% since inception [23] - The convertible bond fund index rose by 2.26%, with a cumulative return of 19.99% since inception [24] - The QDII bond fund index fell by 0.14%, with a cumulative return of 8.91% since inception [25] - The REITs fund index fell by 1.92%, with a cumulative return of 35.66% since inception [26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of Zhang Lu, a fund manager at Xingyin Fund's fixed income department, from a bank wealth management company to a public fund institution, emphasizing the importance of focusing on win rates over odds in the current bond market environment [1][3]. Investment Strategy Refinement - Zhang Lu has extensive experience in fixed income asset management and successfully navigated the challenges of net value transformation while managing large-scale funds [2]. - The transition to a public fund allows for more detailed investment strategies, focusing on credit bond selection, pricing, and exploiting pricing discrepancies between primary and secondary markets [2]. - In response to the trend of diminishing bond yields, Zhang Lu is exploring "fixed income plus" strategies to enhance returns through convertible bonds and equities [2]. Pursuit of Win Rates - The bond market has faced significant challenges this year, with a notable "stock-bond seesaw" effect impacting bond investments [3]. - Zhang Lu notes that the odds for investing in interest rate bonds have changed compared to last year, making it more advantageous to focus on win rates, particularly with credit bonds offering better value [3]. - Strategic preparation ahead of key events and market sentiment can yield positive returns, as demonstrated by timely purchases of quality bonds during market sell-offs [3]. Market Outlook - Despite the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, Zhang Lu believes that the bond market's overall pressure remains manageable if monetary policy stays accommodative and no external shocks occur [4]. - The volatility in fixed income product liabilities poses challenges, necessitating optimization of the liability structure to enhance investor experience and returns [4][5]. - Understanding the funding habits of the liability side is crucial for matching investment strategies and ensuring sufficient liquidity to handle market fluctuations [4].