Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that both stock and bond markets are subject to volatility, and even low-risk pure bond funds can experience declines. It suggests a three-step approach to manage bond market fluctuations and maintain a balanced investment portfolio [2]. Group 1: Understanding Bond Market Volatility - The article highlights that the China Bond Index has shown a cumulative increase of 27.27% over the past five years, with an annualized volatility of only 1.48% and a maximum drawdown of 2.01%, indicating the low volatility characteristic of bond assets [7]. - It notes that despite short-term fluctuations, historical data shows that the bond index has consistently recovered and trended upwards over longer periods, suggesting that investors should maintain a long-term perspective [7]. Group 2: Market Changes and Investor Behavior - The article points out that the A-share market has been performing well, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points as of July 29, 2025, while the bond market has faced pressure due to rising yields and investor sentiment shifting towards equities [9]. - It discusses the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, where investors tend to redeem bond funds to invest in equities during bullish market conditions, highlighting the need for careful consideration before making such moves [9]. Group 3: Strategies for Investment Allocation - The article advocates for a "Fixed Income Plus" strategy, which allows investors to balance both stock and bond assets without having to choose between them, thus reducing the stress of market timing [12]. - It compares the performance of "Fixed Income Plus" funds with pure bond funds and equity funds, indicating that the former has shown better performance in a rising equity market while maintaining lower volatility than pure equity funds [13]. - The article suggests that investors should consider their risk tolerance and portfolio allocation before making decisions, especially in a fluctuating market environment [17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货窄幅整理 核心观点 今日各国债期货均呈现冲高回落走势，整体表现为窄幅震荡整理。由于 市场利率接近政策利率，货币政策适度宽松的主基调不变，因此 8 月以来市 场利率有所回落，国债期货表现为探底回升。另一方面，目前股债跷跷板效 应明显，股市风险偏好快速上升，债市需求受到抑制，制约国债期货的反弹 空间。总的来说，短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 6 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免 ...

近日，因增值税政策变化，债券市场出现了明显波动。"新老划断"引发机构抢筹，短期带来了交易性机 会，而长期来看，银行、保险、券商等机构投资者，为了追求低利率时代下更高的收益，或调整债券投资 策略，寻求比如红利资产等"固收+"投资机会。 同时，因公募等资管产品享受了"减半"税收优惠，不排除更多银行保险资金，选择委托外部公募资管的方式进 行债券投资。 公募资管委外需求或提高 值得注意的是，不同机构之间的债券增值税差异，可能会促使保险银行等自营资金，增强通过公募等资管机构 委托投资的意愿。 低利率环境下，债券投资票息收益和资本利得空间有所缩小。短期来看，免税的存量债券成为稀缺资产，容易 引发抢筹行情，近日债市的波动已印证了这一点。 长期来看，随着旧债滚动续作，需要缴纳增值税的债券规模会持续扩大，机构投资者的债券投资利息收入减 少，以1.7%的10年期国债收益率测算，机构自营资金和公募资管分别减少10.8BP和5.5BP的利息收入。 此外，一位券商资管子公司高管向券商中国记者表示："部分资金或流向信用债市场，不过信用债还要考虑资 本占用，估计规模也不会很大。" 银行保险等自营影响较大 财政部、税务总局公告称，自8月8日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent changes in value-added tax (VAT) policy have led to significant fluctuations in the bond market, prompting institutional investors to adjust their strategies for higher yields in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of VAT Policy Changes - The announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on August 8 reinstated VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, affecting all bond types without exceptions [2]. - The VAT rate for institutional investors is approximately 6.34%, while public fund products benefit from a reduced VAT burden of about 3.26%, indicating a greater impact on banks, insurance companies, and brokerages compared to public funds [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Strategies - The differences in VAT treatment among various institutions may lead to increased demand for outsourcing bond investments to external public asset management firms, especially as the yield space shrinks in a low-interest-rate environment [3]. - Institutions are likely to adjust their investment strategies to seek higher interest income to offset the losses from VAT, which may involve shifting towards credit bonds as the tax differences between government and credit bonds diminish [4]. Group 3: Shift Towards "Fixed Income Plus" Strategies - Institutional investors may reallocate funds from the bond market to dividend-paying stocks, reflecting a shift in the "fixed income plus" strategy due to the rigid nature of liability costs [5]. - Insurance funds have been actively increasing their equity investments, particularly in high-dividend stocks, while still maintaining a significant presence in the bond market, particularly in government bonds [5].

业内人士建议，理财公司可通过久期、杠杆策略增厚收益 普益标准研究员张璟晗表示，从宏观经济、政策调控等多角度看，债市仍具备一定配置价值。市场中部 分理财公司同样认为当前债市调整带来了一定投资机会，并加仓优质城投债、产业债等。机构间的博弈 与交易行为，在一定程度上维持了市场的流动性和稳定性。 目前，债券类资产的投资收益主要来自两部分：资本利得与票息收益。债券资产的票息收益每日累积， 并持续计入产品净值，这为产品净值的修复提供了支撑。 "债券的票息特性决定了债市是天然的多头市场。"前述银行理财子公司人士表示，从长期表现来看，我 国债券市场总体呈现"牛长熊短"的格局，在过去的多轮调整中，债券市场均能快速完成修复。理财是与 时间为友的过程，长期持有可以减少非理性决策的成本，并享受债市修复后的收益机会。 站在当前时点，银行理财子公司该如何调整理财产品资产端配置策略？ 农银理财方面表示，面对本轮债市调整，将通过调降产品久期和杠杆、增加同业存单等流动性仓位配置 等防守策略进行积极应对。下一步，将在保持产品流动性的基础上，规避投资波动较大的券种，控制净 值回撤，并积极关注市场调整后带来的交易及配置机会，力争提升产品业绩表现。 ...

"资产荒"困局之下，债市成为中小行资产配置的主战场。 近日，《华夏时报》记者梳理今年以来银行间同业拆借中心的现券买卖月报数据发现，今年4月、5月， 城农商行现券成交金额连续两个月环比下滑；不过，在经历两个月的短暂调整后，城农商行加大现券交 易力度，6 月、7 月现券成交金额分别环比增长13.5%、5.7%。其中，7月份现券成交金额达17.24万亿 元，再次突破17万亿元大关，创年内新高。 同时，央行数据显示，今年以来，中资中小银行债券投资金额逐月增加，截至今年6月末，相关投资金 额达46.44万亿元。 "城农商行现券交易频繁的背后驱动因素主要是有效贷款需求不足、信贷投放缩量、大行下沉挤压、跨 区展业受限等。"东方金诚金融业务部高级副总监鲁金飞在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，当前市 场环境下，利率债资本占用少，风险相对可控，债券投资收益是城农商行弥补存贷款利差收窄的核心手 段。 城农商行现券交易额创年内新高 近年来，中小银行尤其是农商行债券投资热度上升，逐渐成为债市交易主力。 银行间同业拆借中心数据显示，今年3月份，城农商行合计现券成交金额（买卖方向交易的总和）突破 17万亿元，环比增长42%；当月成交近35 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening domestic demand is reflected by the July manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations, and the correction in the commodity market pricing this week is favorable for the bond market, with yields of different maturities declining. The potential returns are considerable considering the downward space of 10 - 12bp for the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields and the duration [3][6]. - In terms of fundamentals and monetary policy, the demand side remains weak, and the short - term policy stimulus expectations are retreating. The cooling of the commodity market and the stock market may be beneficial to the bond market due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of the month may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation [6]. - For the second half of the year, policy clues may be the main variable guiding the macro - economic trend. The loose monetary policy will continue, and the bond market can prioritize high - cost - effective varieties [35]. 3. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - Interest rate bonds: The yield curve has flattened. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp to 1.37%, and the yields of 3 - year and above decreased more significantly. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields decreased by 3.3bp and 3.4bp to 1.71% and 1.92% respectively [12][15]. - Credit bonds: The spreads generally widened. On the implied AA+ urban investment bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 10bp, with the 5 - year yield reaching 2.04%. On the AAA - secondary capital bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 7bp, 14bp, and 14bp respectively [15]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - Local bonds: Issued 3372 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 2360 billion yuan, including 209 billion yuan of new general bonds, 1832 billion yuan of new special bonds (575 billion yuan of special special bonds), 877 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 454 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [20]. - Treasury bonds: Issued 4061 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 107 billion yuan, including 830 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds [20]. - Policy - financial bonds: Issued 1580 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of - 56 billion yuan [20]. Fund Market Situation - The cross - month capital market remained stable. Before the cross - month, the central bank's large - scale net reverse - repurchase injection made the capital market looser. The overnight interest rate fell below the OMO rate, and the R001 decreased by 19bp to 1.36%. On the cross - month day, the central bank's "unexpected" reduction in roll - over still maintained a balanced capital market [26]. - The overnight and one - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45%, changing by - 5bp and + 3.8bp respectively compared with last week. The overnight and one - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28%, changing by - 43.1bp and - 36.2bp respectively compared with last week [26]. - The yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit mostly declined. The 1 - month AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit decreased by 6.9bp to 1.49%. The weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed to 5.9 months. The average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased from 7.70 trillion yuan last week to 6.72 trillion yuan [29]. China Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose tone in the second half of the year. This week, the central bank conducted a basically equal - amount roll - over, with a net injection of 69 billion yuan [34]. - In terms of the macro - economic outlook, achieving the 5% annual target is not difficult. Policy clues will be the main variable guiding the macro - economic trend in the second half of the year. The loose monetary policy will continue, and the bond market can prioritize high - cost - effective varieties [35].

智通财经8月5日讯（记者 李迪）下半年以来，股市行情火热，债市却波动加剧，股债跷跷板效应愈发 凸显。 受债市波动的影响，多只债基的年内收益转负，部分产品的年内亏损超过1%。同时，多只债基遭遇大 额赎回，已公告称调整份额净值精度。 近期多只债券基金出现亏损，业内人士分析主要有两方面原因。 一方面，今年以来债市持续震荡，7月初以来股市回暖，股债跷跷板效应下债市波动加剧。债市震荡对 纯债基金的业绩造成一定压力，持有长久期品种较多的产品会承受更多波动压力。 达诚定海双月享的基金经理陈佶分析称，7月股票市场火热，上证综指最高达到3636，接近去年十一后 的高点，同时万得全A指数已突破去年高点达到5684，同时各家机构均判断权益市场会继续上涨，这也 是压制债券的主要因素。 另一方面，部分二级债基的股票投资部分收益不佳。虽然今年股市存在很多投资机会，但是板块轮动 快，大盘波动也比较大，如果把握不好节奏，投资股票的收益也不会太好。 以人保鑫利债券为例，该基金的基金经理胡琼予在二季报中指出，"本年度以来大小盘风格切换较为频 繁，价值成长之间轮动较为剧烈。"该基金在报告期内仓位维持稳定，但风格轮动较为滞后，切换之间 未能获得较好 ...

宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 7 月制造业 PMI 走弱，但短期内降 息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡整理。由于政策面强调下半年要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加 上 7 月制造业 PMI 数据走弱，因此降息预期有所升 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased from 1.7325% last Friday to 1.695%, with a weekly change of -3.75bp. The bond yield showed a pattern of "first rising then falling," corresponding to the "first rising then falling" of the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating an obvious stock-bond seesaw effect [1][11] - Starting from August 8, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax again. This policy change has short-term and long-term impacts on the bond market. In the short term, it is beneficial for old bonds, while in the long term, it is bearish for the bond market [14][15] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is as high as 89.8%, mainly due to the weakening of the US labor market, with the number of newly added non-farm payrolls reaching the lowest point in 2025 and the unemployment rate rising [21][22] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. One-week Viewpoints - **Yield Changes of 10-year Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 3.75bp this week. The yield showed different trends on each trading day due to various factors such as commodity futures, stock markets, policy announcements, and economic data [1][11] - **Impact of Bond VAT Policy**: Starting from August 8, newly issued bonds will be subject to VAT, while old bonds and their subsequent issuances will continue to be exempt. In the short term, it is beneficial for old bonds, and in the long term, it is bearish for the bond market [14][15] - **Possibility of Fed Interest Rate Cut**: Considering the US economic data and labor market conditions, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is as high as 89.8% [21][22] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summary - **Liquidity Tracking**: The total net injection of the open market operation from July 28 to August 1 was -6433 billion yuan. The money market interest rates showed different degrees of decline [33][35] - **Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: The total commercial housing transaction area showed signs of recovery. Steel prices and LME non-ferrous metal futures official prices declined. Overseas, US bond yields generally increased, and the US dollar index, commodities, and stock markets showed different trends [50][57][71] 3. One-week Review of Local Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 70 local bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 337.175 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 94.638 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 242.536 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of issuance amount were Sichuan, Anhui, and Yunnan [82][83] - **Secondary Market Overview**: The stock of local bonds this week was 52.53 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 36.6108 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.69%. The top three provinces with active trading were Sichuan, Shandong, and Anhui [95] - **Local Bond Issuance Plan for this Month**: The local bond issuance plan shows the planned issuance amount of each province on different dates [102][103] 4. One-week Review of the Credit Bond Market - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 215 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 179.211 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 165.838 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 13.372 billion yuan. The net financing amount decreased by 41.542 billion yuan compared with last week [104] - **Issuance Interest Rates**: The issuance interest rates of different types of bonds showed different degrees of changes, with the issuance interest rate of short-term financing increasing by 20.50bp, and the issuance interest rates of medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds showing varying degrees of decline [120] - **Secondary Market Transaction Overview**: The total turnover of credit bonds this week was 558.558 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [120] - **Yield to Maturity**: The yields to maturity of different types of bonds showed different trends, with the yields of short-term financing and medium-term notes showing mixed trends, and the yields of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally rising [121][124][125] - **Credit Spreads**: The credit spreads of short-term financing and medium-term notes generally narrowed, while the credit spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds showed different trends [126][129][135] - **Grade Spreads**: The grade spreads of short-term financing and medium-term notes generally narrowed, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds generally widened, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [139][143][147]