结果这一枪直接打到了华尔街的要害，美股美债和美元迎来了罕见的三杀，逼得特朗普不得不马上宣布关税暂停。翻脸比翻书还快。今天我就和大家来探 讨一下，为什么特朗普让制造业回流和缩小贸易逆差这些让美国再次伟大的目标，和华尔街期待的美国股债汇的长期牛市，两者之间存在着难以调和的矛 盾。 美国再次伟大与美股美债美元 存在着不可调和的矛盾 美国政府和华尔街合力打造的 全球分工与发展的模式 威胁着特朗普 不要轻举妄动 美国再次伟大与美元资产长牛 只能二选一 欢迎点击观看 新经济学家智库 x TAIXUE x 夏春 《美国再次伟大？美元资产长牛？二选一》 >> 特朗普和华尔街 存在着难以调和的矛盾 大家好！我是夏春，在香港上善资本集团工作，也在香港的大学任教，主要分析全球宏观经济与行业变化，为客户打理全球的资产配置。 今年以来，对全球资本市场影响最深远的事就是美国总统特朗普公布了一连串让人眼花缭乱，让世界翻天覆地的政策。为了实现让美国再次伟大这个目 标，简单来说，就是让制造业回流美国，让美国的贸易逆差缩小，特朗普开出的最响一枪就是向全球，包括美国最亲密的盟友，加征高关税，对中国的关 税一度加到145%。 >> 实施高关税 华尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Xinhua Zhongxin Credit Bond Constant Proportion and Risk Parity Index Series aims to provide diversified investment targets and performance benchmarks in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the opportunity for asset allocation rebalancing [1][4]. Group 1: Index Composition and Strategy - The index series consists of two asset classes: stocks and bonds, with stock assets including the Xinhua Zhongxin Dividend Value Index and the Xinhua Zhongxin Quality Advantage Index, while bond assets include the Zhongxin 1-3 Year Credit Bond Investment Grade Preferred Index and the Zhongxin Sci-Tech Innovation Theme Credit Bond Investment Grade Index [4]. - The index series employs constant proportion and risk parity strategies for asset allocation, providing investors with tools for disciplined asset allocation and dynamic risk balancing [4][5]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of July 10, the Xinhua Zhongxin Dividend Value Stock-Bond Risk Parity Index has a stock asset weight of 3.64% and a bond asset weight of 96.36%, achieving an annualized return of 4.62% since its inception, with a maximum drawdown of only 1.26% [4]. - The combination of the two strategies results in a favorable risk-return profile, with higher returns compared to pure bond indices and significantly lower volatility than pure stock indices, making it suitable for institutional investors seeking absolute returns [5]. Group 3: Target Investor Segments - The index series is particularly appealing to bank wealth management subsidiaries and insurance asset management firms as a "line-drawing" asset allocation tool, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [5]. - For conservative investors, the Dividend Value Stock-Bond Combination Index offers the potential for high dividend and coupon income, while policy-sensitive funds can benefit from the Sci-Tech bond combination series, enhancing yield elasticity while considering innovation themes [5].

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融/ 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 《中资券商试水虚拟资产交易业务，看好 券商板块成长性——国泰君安国际获批提 供虚拟资产交易服务点评》 2025/06/25 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 证券Ⅱ 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 (8621)23297818× jinld@swsresearch.com 2025 年 07 月 11 日 稳定币&RWA 代币化拓宽券商业 务空间，首推国泰海通 看好 ——上海市国资委党委召开中心组学习会点评 事件：上海市国资委党委 7 月 10 日召开中心组学习会，围绕加密货币与稳定币的发展趋势 及应对策略开展学习。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 ⚫ 呼应沪港国际金融中心协同发展政策，驱动券商"传统代客交易+加密货币"业务模式 创新。2025 年 6 月 19 日，沪港两地共同签署《沪港国际金融中心协同发展方案》， ...

文|姜林燕 编|刘双霞 近日，海尔消费金融10亿元金融债以2.20% 的票面利率成功发行，创下持牌消金机构融资成本新低。就 在三个月前，该公司刚完成15亿元ABS发行，优先A档利率低至2.03%。 截至6月底，包括海尔消金、尚诚消金、中邮消金、中银消金、杭银消金、宁银消金、马上消金在内的7 家持牌消金机构，合计发行金融债券总额达121亿元。根据素喜智研统计，2025年上半年消费金融公司 发债规模还不到2024年上半年（255亿元）的一半。 金融债作为中长期融资工具，正成为头部消金公司优化资产负债结构的利器。海尔消金在发行10亿元金 融债时明确表示，这笔3年期固定利率债券将用于"补充公司中长期资金，优化资产负债结构"。 融资成本下降同样令人瞩目。杭银消金在2024年发行的三期金融债票面利率呈现阶梯式下降：从1月的 2.90%一路降至7月的2.19%。 头部效应在金融债市场尤为明显。海尔消金已构建起涵盖股东存款、金融债、ABS、银团贷款、同业拆 借等在内的多元化融资矩阵。截至2024年末，该公司已获149家金融机构543.84亿元的授信总额，其中 未使用授信额度高达348.02亿元。 与金融债相比，资产支持证券（ ...

| 重合持股 (2025-03-31) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 持仓市值(元) | 持仓数量 | 相对上期增减 | 占股票市值比 | 占基金净值比 | 占流通股本比 | | 成都银行 | 416,833,623.09 | 24,248,611 | 16.17% | 2.82%T | 2.81%1 | 0.57% | | 雅戈尔 | 378,143,123.B8 | 45.857.884 | 9.85% | 2.56%- | 2.54% | 1.01% | | 示机器行 | 376.409.462.40 | 17,426,364 | 118 | 2.55% | 2.53% | 0.08% | | 沪农商行 | 375.117,354.00 | 44,978,100 | 9.53% | 2.54% | 2.52% | 0.48% | | 南钢股份 1 | 369,174,793.00 | 80.081.300 | 9.53% | 2.50% | 2.48%4 | 1.30% | | 四川路桥 | 368, ...

035 证券代码：002097 证券简称：山河智能 公告编号：2025- 山河智能装备股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 信托机构：Bank of Utah not in its individual capacity but solely as owner trustee of the Avmax Utah Trust No.3 （为 Avmax 的 SPV） 一、交易概况 山河智能装备股份有限公司（以下简称"山河智能"或"公司"）于 2025 年 7 月 5 日召开了第八届董事会第二十二次会议，审议并通过了《关于全资子公 司拟购置资产的议案》，同意山河智能境外全资子公司 Avmax Group Inc.（以下 简称"Avmax"）购置 Qantas Airways Limited（以下简称"Qantas"）持有的 16 架 DHC-8 300 飞机。前述内容具体详见公司于 2025 年 7 月 8 日刊载在巨潮资讯 网（www.cninfo.com.cn）的"2025-030"号公告。 二、交易进展 售协议》，协议主要内容如下： ...

2025 年 07 月 11 日 煤炭 稳中求胜，红利为锚 年初至 630 煤炭板块涨跌幅-12%，位居行业最末：2025 年上半 年，由于国内供应端以能源保供作为生产目标的方向并未发生改 变，供应充足与下游补库积极性放缓相互叠加使得价格持续缺乏 向上动能，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价从年初的 765 元/吨下跌 150 元/吨至 615 元/吨，持续处于中长期合同合理区间之内，且 3 月 下旬以来持续低于中长期合同价格；2025H1 均价为 678 元/吨， 同比-23%。京唐港主焦煤从年初的 1520 元/吨下跌 290 元/吨至 1230 元/吨，当前位于近五年来最低点；2025H1 均价 1383 元/吨， 同比-39%。现货价格的持续下跌引发投资者对于板块业绩稳定性 的质疑，叠加市场对于煤炭基本面继续供需宽松的一致预期使得 股价持续承压，截至 6 月 30 日，煤炭板块（申万）涨跌幅-12.29%， 跑输沪深 300，并位居申万行业跌幅最末。细分板块看，动力煤 （申万）涨跌幅-10.11% ，焦煤（申万）涨跌幅-19.04%。 迎峰度夏高温来袭，关注三季度电煤需求向上弹性：1）供给： 内产方面，国 ...

Group 1 - The recent learning session by Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission focused on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, indicating a shift in the industry towards "cross-border clearing + asset tokenization" as Chinese securities firms upgrade their virtual currency trading licenses [1] - The brokerage sector is experiencing a bullish sentiment due to increased trading volumes, with daily average stock trading reaching 1.6 trillion yuan, a nearly 60% year-on-year increase, and margin financing remaining high at 1.8 trillion yuan, up nearly 20% year-on-year [2] - The implementation of reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the relaxation of IPO regulations are expected to improve the investment banking business for brokerages, with a significant increase in IPO projects being processed [2] Group 2 - The industry has seen multiple significant merger and acquisition events in 2023, indicating a sustained interest in M&A themes [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, which may lead fund managers to increase allocations to currently underweighted sectors, including non-bank financials [3] - Historical data suggests that during bullish market expectations, the brokerage index's price-to-book (PB) ratio can quickly recover to above 2 times, with the current PB ratio at 1.47, indicating substantial potential for growth in the brokerage sector [4]

Group 1 - Needham downgraded CoreWeave's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," citing that the $9 billion acquisition of Core Scientific is strategically significant but appears overvalued [1] - The acquisition is expected to release an additional 150MW to 200MW of IT capacity for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads [1] - Analysts believe the deal will provide CoreWeave with high-quality underlying infrastructure, reduce capital costs through asset-backed securities financing, save $500 million in annual operating expenses, and bring in an internal data center operations team [1] Group 2 - Following the acquisition announcement, several securities firms, including Stifel and Mizuho, downgraded their ratings on CoreWeave [2] - As of Thursday's market close, CoreWeave's stock fell by 9.64% to $138.29, despite a year-to-date increase of 246% [2]

Core Insights - The bond market is experiencing a significant decline in yields, with "AAA" rated credit bonds reaching historical lows, prompting traders to engage in frequent wave trading to capture small profit margins [1][4][5] - The overall investment environment is shifting towards low-risk assets due to increased volatility in stocks and funds, leading to a preference for stable, low-risk investments [3][12] Bond Market Trends - The issuance rates for "AAA" rated credit bonds have dropped significantly, with examples such as Huadian International's bond at 1.89% and Zhongshan Public's bond at 1.66%, marking record lows for similar ratings and terms [1][4] - The yield for 1-year "AAA" rated city investment bonds has decreased to as low as 1.67%, down from approximately 2.5%-2.8% in the same period last year, indicating a drop of 80-110 basis points [4][5] Trading Strategies - The importance of wave trading has increased as the yield spread narrows, with traders aiming for small gains of 1-2 basis points per transaction [1][2] - Institutions are increasingly adopting high-frequency trading strategies to capitalize on short-term market fluctuations, with a notable rise in participation from public funds, insurance asset management, and bank wealth management subsidiaries [7][12] Investment Challenges - The low yield environment presents challenges for institutions, as they struggle to meet liability requirements while facing limited profit margins [8][9] - The scarcity of high-yield assets is becoming more pronounced, with banks unable to invest in the stock market due to regulatory constraints, leading to a focus on the bond market for asset allocation [9][10] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue experiencing downward pressure on yields due to monetary policy shifts and economic challenges, with the potential for further interest rate cuts [5][6] - Institutions are advised to diversify their portfolios by incorporating longer-duration bonds, industry bonds, and equity assets to enhance yield potential in a low-rate environment [12][14]