Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The December PMI data shows that both supply and demand ends have rebounded. With external demand and policy support, demand has warmed up. However, the sustainability of economic recovery momentum remains to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The bond market may face certain pressure due to the improved market expectations for the economy, but in the long - term, it is still advisable to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest rate cut expectations in the first quarter [10][13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In December, the PMI data indicated that both the supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry had recovered, and it returned to the expansion range. The export data in November was stronger than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilient growth in non - US regions. The central government emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, and there were still expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. In the US, the liquidity situation improved, and the market postponed the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut to mid - year [10]. - **Key Economic Data**: In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI fell 1.9% year - on - year. In the US, the non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The US president announced a plan to purchase $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. On January 8, the central bank conducted a 90 - day RMB 1.1 trillion outright reverse repurchase operation for equal - amount rollover. As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3579 trillion, an increase of $11.5 billion from the end of November. The Ministry of Commerce prohibited the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users and for military purposes. The National Development and Reform Commission planned to allocate over RMB 100 billion in funds for Yangtze River protection projects [10][11][12]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted RMB 138.7 billion in reverse repurchase operations this week, with RMB 1.7937 trillion in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of RMB 1.655 trillion. The DR007 rate closed at 1.47% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.88%, up 3.03 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year yield was 2.31%, up 3.50 BP week - on - week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18%, down 1.00 BP week - on - week [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1, driven by the combination of loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [18][23][24][27]. 3. Major Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - **GDP and PMI**: In the third quarter of 2025, China's GDP actually grew by 4.8% year - on - year. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [40]. - **PMI Sub - items**: In December, the manufacturing PMI sub - items showed a moderate improvement in both supply and demand. The production index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, and new orders increased by 1.6 points to 50.8 [46]. - **Price Index**: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, CPI, core CPI, and PPI all increased by 0.2% [49]. - **Export Data**: In November 2025, China's exports were stronger than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. Exports to the US decreased by 28.5% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate of 8.17% [52]. - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.8%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value [55]. - **Investment and Real Estate Data**: From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.6%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 15.9%. In November, the month - on - month decline in second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was 0.7%, and the year - on - year decline was 5.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the completion end data in November was 18.06%, and the new home sales data in 30 large - scale cities had weakened recently [58][64]. - **Foreign Economy** - **US Economy**: In the third quarter, the US GDP grew by 2.33% year - on - year and 4.30% quarter - on - quarter. In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. In December, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. The ISM manufacturing PMI in December was 47.9, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4 [67][70][73]. - **European Economy**: In the third quarter, the EU GDP grew by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the eurozone CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, the manufacturing PMI was 48.8, and the service industry PMI was 52.4 [73][76]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In November, the M1 growth rate was 4.9%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.0%. The social financing increment was 2.5 trillion yuan, with an increase of 160 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of government bonds in the social financing sub - items slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was weak. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 6.0%, and the government bond growth rate was 18.80% [81][84]. - **Central Bank Operations**: In December, the MLF balance was 6.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 138.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.7937 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.47% [87]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The report provides the latest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Chinese government bond yields, and US Treasury yields [90]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB and the US dollar index [100].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 非农平淡，Fed 6 月才降息的"小心思" 1 月 9 日，美国劳工部公布 25 年 12 月非农数据，非农就业人数增加 5 万人，预估增 7 万人，10-11 月合计 下修 7.6 万人。失业率 4.4%，市场预期 4.5%，前值也下修至 4.5%。时薪环比 0.33%，略快于前月的 0.24%。 本次非农数据并未改变既有"低裁员-低招聘"的模式，对市场影响不大。非农数据发布后的 15 分钟内，美 元小幅走弱约 0.1%，黄金上涨不到 0.3%，2 年期美债收益率上行 1bp 至 3.51%（其后上行至 3.53%或因密歇 根消费者信心超预期），10 年和 30 年收益率变化不大。 重点关注以下三点，第一，如何理解失业率下行？家庭调查与企业调查数据存在差别。失业率数据对应的 家庭调查统计 12 月就业人数增加了 23.2 万，对比企业调查数据就业仅增 5 万。12 月家庭调查统计的失业人数 下降了 27.8 万，4.6 万人退出劳动力市场。对应失业率下降 0.16%，劳动参与率下降 0.06% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intervening in the mortgage market to lower mortgage rates by directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS), countering the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [1][2][5]. Group 1: Government Intervention - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, announced that the government has instructed the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to purchase $200 billion in MBS, marking a significant intervention in the housing affordability crisis [2]. - The initial phase of this plan involves a $30 billion purchase, which is seen as an aggressive move by the White House to address housing costs [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, MBS prices surged, leading to a potential decrease in mortgage rates by approximately 0.25 percentage points [3][5]. - The risk premium of MBS relative to U.S. Treasuries narrowed by about 0.18 percentage points, indicating a positive market response to the intervention [5]. Group 3: Concerns Over Federal Reserve Independence - The intervention has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as traditionally, interest rate adjustments are within the Fed's purview [6][7]. - Analysts warn that this action blurs the line between market-driven effects and political manipulation, potentially reintroducing political risks into the financial markets [6]. Group 4: Future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - The policy complicates the future privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as the government now views these entities as essential policy tools [8]. - There are conflicting expectations between the government's use of these government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) as policy levers and the traditional expectations of private investors regarding their profitability [8].

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index reached new all-time closing highs, with the Dow up 0.48% to 49,504.07 points and the S&P 500 up 0.65% to 6,966.28 points [1][2] - For the week, the Dow increased by 2.32%, the S&P 500 by 1.57%, and the Nasdaq by 1.88% [1] European Market - Major European indices also closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.53% to 25,261.64 points, France's CAC40 up 1.44% to 8,362.09 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.8% to 10,124.6 points [2][3] - Weekly gains for European indices included DAX up 2.94%, CAC40 up 2.04%, and FTSE 100 up 1.74% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.3%, with notable declines in stocks such as Atour down over 5% and Huya down over 4% [3] - Conversely, stocks like BrainCo surged over 10%, and BeiGene rose over 5% [3] Technology and Semiconductor Sector - Major tech stocks generally rose, with Tesla up over 2% and Facebook up over 1% [4] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 2.73%, with Intel rising over 10% and Lam Research up over 8% [4] - Storage concept stocks saw significant gains, with SanDisk up over 12% and Micron Technology up over 5% [4] - A report from Nomura Securities indicated that enterprise-level SSD NAND prices could increase by over 100% quarter-on-quarter due to strong demand driven by AI [4] Oil and Precious Metals - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude up 2.35% to $59.12 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.18% to $63.34 per barrel [5] - Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold futures up 1.29% to $4,518.40 per ounce and silver up 6.18% to $79.79 per ounce [5] Employment Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - U.S. non-farm payrolls showed a stable labor market, with a total increase of 58,400 jobs in 2025, but a monthly average of 4,900 jobs was significantly lower than the previous year's average [5][6] - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy stance in January 2026, with potential rate cuts delayed until mid-year [6]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indices reached new all-time closing highs, with the Dow up 0.48% to 49,504.07 points and the S&P 500 up 0.65% to 6,966.28 points [1][2] - For the week, the Dow increased by 2.32%, the S&P 500 by 1.57%, and the Nasdaq by 1.88% [1] European Market - Major European indices also closed higher, with the German DAX up 0.53% to 25,261.64 points, the French CAC40 up 1.44% to 8,362.09 points, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.8% to 10,124.60 points [2][3] - Weekly performance showed the DAX up 2.94%, CAC40 up 2.04%, and FTSE 100 up 1.74% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.3%, with notable declines in stocks such as Atour down over 5% and Huya down over 4% [3] - Conversely, stocks like BrainCo surged over 10%, and BeiGene rose over 5% [3] Storage Sector - Storage concept stocks saw significant gains, with SanDisk up over 12% and Micron Technology up over 5% [6] - A report from Nomura Securities indicated that enterprise-level SSD NAND prices could increase by over 100% in the first quarter due to strong demand [6][7] Oil and Precious Metals - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude up 2.35% to $59.12 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.18% to $63.34 per barrel [9] - Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold futures up 1.29% to $4,518.40 per ounce and silver up 6.18% to $79.79 per ounce [9] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report showed a stable labor market, with a total increase of 58,400 jobs in 2025, averaging 4,900 jobs per month [9][10] - The unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, with notable sectoral disparities in employment changes [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's request for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is perceived by the market as a form of "quasi-quantitative easing" (quasi-QE) aimed at lowering long-term market interest rates and home buying costs without relying on the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The primary objective of the MBS purchase plan is to exert indirect pressure on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - The initiative is expected to directly impact the housing market by making mortgages more affordable [1] - This move is seen as a strategic effort to stimulate economic activity through administrative means rather than traditional monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's announcement to have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, aiming to lower mortgage rates and housing costs, which is seen as a form of "Trump-style quantitative easing" [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Initiative - The initiative is intended to address housing affordability, a key issue in the political narrative, especially as the midterm elections approach [2]. - Trump criticized former President Biden's handling of the housing market and claimed that his decision not to sell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has resulted in significant financial gains for these institutions [2]. - The announcement comes alongside Trump's push to ban institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, highlighting the political implications of housing affordability for the Republican Party [2]. Group 2: Implementation and Market Impact - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) confirmed that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are prepared to execute these purchases quickly, leveraging their substantial cash reserves [4]. - In recent months, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased their retained investment portfolios by over 25%, indicating a strategy to improve their financial standing ahead of a potential public offering [4]. - The article notes that while the Federal Reserve has previously engaged in similar bond purchases, it remains uncertain whether Trump's actions will effectively influence mortgage rates [5][6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The White House is reportedly drafting an executive order to address rising living costs, which may include allowing individuals to use retirement and college savings accounts for home down payments [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that enabling citizens to convert savings into home purchase funds could stimulate demand, potentially leading to higher home prices and necessitating further market interventions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The core survival principle for 2026 is summarized as "assets are king," emphasizing the importance of asset management in a complex economic landscape [2]. Group 1: Economic Landscape - The global economy is described as being in a "delicate eye of the storm," with significant volatility expected due to geopolitical uncertainties and structural contradictions [2]. - The K-shaped economic recovery is highlighted, where high-income individuals benefit from stock and real estate markets, while low-income groups face rising living costs, leading to a disparity in economic experiences [7][8]. - This K-shaped development is not only present in the U.S. but also in Japan and Europe, where ordinary citizens feel the pinch of rising prices despite macroeconomic improvements [7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to undergo significant leadership changes in 2026, which may lead to shifts in monetary policy, particularly under political pressure for lower interest rates [11]. - There is a prediction that the Fed may abandon its inflation target and lower policy rates to support the economy, potentially leading to a return to quantitative easing [11][12]. Group 3: AI and Technology - The concept of an "AI inflection point" is introduced, indicating a critical moment for the technology sector, with concerns about overinvestment and the sustainability of business models [15]. - The potential for a significant adjustment in the AI sector is noted, with a focus on companies that can translate technology into real commercial value [15][16]. - Differences in AI development paths between the U.S. and China are highlighted, with the U.S. focusing on market-driven models and China leveraging government support for broader applications [16]. Group 4: Fiscal Capitalism - The term "fiscal capitalism" is used to describe the current economic model, where government fiscal policies drive economic activity, often leading to excessive credit issuance [19]. - The rise in gold and silver prices is interpreted as a market response to distrust in fiat currencies, with expectations for continued demand due to structural factors [20]. Group 5: Geopolitical Dynamics - A cautious optimism is expressed regarding geopolitical risks in 2026, with a shift in U.S. foreign policy towards "hemisphericism," focusing on domestic issues and regional control [22]. - This strategic shift may reduce immediate geopolitical tensions but could create new challenges in energy pricing and supply chains, particularly affecting relations with China [22].

Core Viewpoint - Janet Yellen warns of increasing risks associated with "fiscal dominance" in the U.S. economy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's independence may be compromised, leading to potential capital flight, currency pressure, and rising long-term interest rates, which could result in the U.S. losing its dollar pricing power and becoming akin to a "banana republic" [1][10] Group 1: Fiscal Dominance Characteristics - Fiscal dominance occurs when fiscal policy overrides traditional boundaries, forcing monetary policy to serve fiscal objectives, which is a dangerous signal for Western economies but less problematic for Eastern models [1][3] - The U.S. is showing clear signs of fiscal dominance, with the government pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate debt burdens, leading to a scenario where monetary policy is subordinated to fiscal needs [3][5] Group 2: Economic Implications of Fiscal Dominance - The formation of fiscal dominance relies on continuous fiscal deficits and debt expansion, which are often pursued without corresponding fiscal consolidation mechanisms, resulting in a growing debt burden [5][10] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the federal deficit will reach $1.9 trillion by 2026, with total debt as a percentage of GDP rising to 100%, and potentially 118% over the next decade, which is a key driver forcing monetary policy to yield [3][5] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Inflation Risks - When central banks are compelled to finance fiscal deficits, it leads to increased money supply, which may mask inflation pressures in the short term but can result in long-term inflation spikes due to excessive money supply [7][8] - Yellen's warnings highlight the risk of rising inflation expectations as the Federal Reserve neglects its core responsibility to control inflation, with the IMF predicting global inflation to remain high at 4.2% in 2026, with the U.S. facing even greater inflation risks due to fiscal stimulus and compromised monetary policy independence [8][10] Group 4: Political Influence on Economic Policy - Fiscal dominance reflects a shift in economic logic driven by political demands, where short-term economic performance and public support take precedence over long-term debt sustainability [9][10] - The current U.S. situation exemplifies this trend, with political interference in monetary policy undermining the professional separation of macroeconomic management and leading to a closed loop of public demand, political action, and policy implementation [9][10]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Demand Expansion - Monetary policy can expand domestic demand by changing the interaction behaviors of countless micro-individuals, encouraging businesses to invest and residents to buy homes and consume [1][7] - The key to achieving these changes lies in the central bank's firm stance on inflation targets and significantly lowering policy interest rates [1][14] - Fiscal policy complements monetary policy by increasing government spending and leveraging its multiplier effect to expand domestic demand [1] Group 2: Historical Context and Examples - Since the 1990s, central banks have been the main force behind policies to expand domestic demand, often relying solely on monetary policy [1] - During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve, under Bernanke, lowered the federal funds rate from 5.25% to 0.25%, a reduction of 500 basis points, which led to a significant rebound in the S&P 500 index [3] - Japan's central bank, under Kuroda, adopted aggressive monetary policies, including quantitative easing and negative interest rates, which resulted in a substantial increase in the Nikkei 225 index and a recovery in housing prices [5][6] Group 3: Current Economic Challenges in China - China's economy is currently facing challenges of insufficient demand, with private fixed asset investment experiencing negative growth for the first time since 2005, at -0.4% in 2023 [12][13] - Consumer confidence remains low despite some recovery in capital markets and a slight improvement in expectations following proactive counter-cyclical policies [12] - The attractiveness of private investment is low, with the difference between return on assets (ROA) and long-term financing rates at only 0.2% in 2024, the worst level in 20 years [13] Group 4: Mechanisms for Stimulating Investment and Consumption - To stimulate investment and consumption, the central bank must clearly communicate future inflation targets and further reduce policy interest rates, making investments and home purchases more attractive [14] - The relationship between interest rates and housing prices is significant; even a small decrease in interest rates can create substantial upward pressure on housing prices [10][11] - For businesses, lower interest rates reduce financing costs, while for residents, they influence the decision to buy or rent, impacting overall demand [9][10]