贵金属周报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 避险情绪升温，金银预计偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 贵金属周报 一、上周交易数据 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周国际金价呈震荡走势，而银价则在创历史新高之后出 现回落。美国与其他贸易国的谈判仍存在风险，且美联储 主席易主的传闻愈演愈烈，市场担忧美联储货币政策突然 转向的风险，但美国经济数据保持韧性，美元指数持续反 弹对贵金属价格形成压制。银价在创出39.57美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical risks in Washington and the Middle East, as well as escalating trade tensions between the US and Europe [1] Geopolitical Risks - The turmoil in the Middle East, particularly the Houthi attacks on Iraqi oil fields, has led to a daily drop in oil production by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels, impacting the global energy market [4] - The issuance of missile safety alerts by the US Embassy in Israel has heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors [4] Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve are causing market fluctuations, with hawkish member Kugler opposing rate cuts while dovish member Waller advocates for a 25 basis point cut in July [2][5] - Market expectations for a July rate cut have risen from 28% to 30%, while the probability of a September cut remains at 54% [2] Trade Tensions - The escalation of the US-EU trade war, including a 40% tariff on EU steel starting August 1, has begun to impact the precious metals supply chain [6] - A factory owner in Dongguan reported a 50% drop in orders for 18K gold necklaces destined for the US, resulting in significant inventory losses [6] Market Volatility - A rumor regarding former President Trump's consideration to fire Fed Chair Powell caused gold prices to spike by $50 to a three-week high of $3,377 before dropping back down, illustrating the extreme volatility in the gold market [8] - Gold has experienced nine instances of daily fluctuations exceeding $35 since July [8] Precious Metals Price Movements - Platinum prices have surged to a two-month high of $1,408, driven by miner strikes in South Africa and the booming hydrogen vehicle market, while silver prices have declined due to weak global factory orders [8] - Domestic gold prices in Shanghai opened at 771.2 yuan per gram, slightly down from the previous day, while retail prices for gold jewelry are significantly higher due to additional costs [9] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, purchasing between 37 to 39 tons monthly, with China's central bank being the most aggressive, raising its reserves to 2,298 tons over the past eight months [9] - Some Nordic pension funds have increased their gold allocations to 14%, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [9]

Group 1 - The current gold price is around $3,336 per ounce, with geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties providing support, but no clear directional breakout has occurred [1] - President Trump's comments about potentially firing Fed Chairman Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [1] - New tariffs on drugs and copper from the U.S. have heightened global market risk aversion, supporting gold prices, although stronger-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims data exert downward pressure on gold [1] Group 2 - Gold is currently in a short-term downtrend, with a death cross between the 5-day and 13-day moving averages, while the 34-day moving average remains upward, indicating short-term pressure but not a complete trend reversal [2] - If gold can hold above the lower channel, there is potential for a rebound; otherwise, a breakdown could test the support of the 34-day moving average [2] - The trading plan suggests buying near $3,330 with a stop at $3,320 and a target of $3,360, emphasizing the importance of preparation and learning in trading success [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国零售销售数据强劲，金价V型反转；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲 三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.80个基点报 4.449%；美元指数涨0.36%报98.64，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1847；COMEX黄 金期货跌0.41%报3345.40美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布 会、日本6月CPI、日本27届选举、美国7月密歇根消费者信心指数。美国零售销售数 据强劲，但美联储主席更换预期下，降息预期高涨， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the fluctuating risk sentiment in the market and its impact on gold prices, indicating a need for real-time analysis of order flows to predict future trends [1] Group 1 - The current market sentiment towards gold is influenced by varying levels of risk aversion among investors [1] - Real-time order flow analysis is being utilized by industry experts to assess the future direction of gold prices [1]

Group 1 - Silver prices rebounded on July 16, reaching a high of $38.04 per ounce, driven by heightened market concerns over U.S. President Trump's escalating tariff policies and increased risk aversion [1] - The U.S. June CPI data showed a 0.3% month-on-month increase, the largest in five months, with core CPI rising to 2.9% year-on-year, raising concerns about tariffs pushing inflation higher and potentially extending the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy [2] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. PPI data, which will serve as a leading indicator for inflation trends and directly impact the future movement of gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Silver is experiencing an upward trend, with the day's highest price at $38.04, and the market is looking at resistance levels between $39.22 and $39.32, while support levels are between $36.52 and $36.62 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a perfect rotation with silver prices surging significantly, outperforming gold and platinum in recent months [1][2]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Silver prices have seen a dramatic increase, reaching over $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, with a year-to-date increase of 33%, surpassing gold's 27% rise [1][2]. - As of July 15, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures price rose to 9,225 yuan per kilogram, with a year-to-date increase of 23.5% [2]. Group 2: Drivers of Silver's Rise - The surge in silver prices is attributed to industrial demand driven by the acceleration of global energy transition and geopolitical risks, leading to increased investment in precious metals [3][6]. - The global photovoltaic market is expected to see a significant increase in silver demand, with projections of over 600 GW of new installations by 2025 [3]. Group 3: Sources of Investment Flow - Recent inflows into the silver market are primarily from institutional investors and individual investors, with a notable increase in silver ETF holdings and speculative positions in futures markets [4]. - As of July 14, the largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 14,966.24 tons, marking a peak for the year [4]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - The World Silver Association forecasts that silver prices could reach $40 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by strong industrial demand and investment inflows [5][7]. - Analysts predict that silver's price will continue to rise due to supply constraints and robust industrial demand, particularly from green technologies [6][7]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Trends - The silver market is currently experiencing a structural deficit, with industrial demand expected to remain strong, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and solar energy [7][8]. - Despite some cautious outlooks regarding short-term price movements, there is an expectation that silver will outperform gold in the long run as economic growth accelerates [9].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The market is focused on the upcoming US PPI data, which will directly impact the future movement of gold prices [1] - Gold prices found support near the 100-period SMA around $3320, halting a decline from a three-week high [1] - If gold can stabilize above the resistance zone of $3342-$3343, it may test the $3365-$3366 area, with a further target of $3400 [1] - Current momentum indicators like MACD and RSI have not formed clear bullish signals, indicating limited upward momentum [1] - A drop below the $3320 support could lead to a decline towards the $3300 level, with further support at $3283-$3282 and a potential revisit to the July low of $3247 [1] - Gold's movement is influenced by both fundamental factors, such as Trump's tariff policies raising inflation expectations, and technical factors, with the Fed's stance on maintaining high rates limiting price rebounds [1] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - The recent rebound in oil prices was supported by a surprising decrease in US API crude oil inventories, which fell by 3.6 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a 1.5 million barrel increase [5] - This indicates strong demand for US crude oil, contributing to market confidence [5] - The technical outlook for US crude shows a double bottom structure around $66, with prices stabilizing above the 20-day moving average and breaking a short-term downtrend [5] - Despite signs of a rebound, uncertainties surrounding tariffs may limit the extent of the price increase [7] - Close attention is needed on EIA official inventory data and changes in US and European consumption data to assess the sustainability of the rebound [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including crude oil, soda ash, silicon iron, etc., and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading suggestions for each product [2][3][5]. - Economic recovery has a mixed impact on the bond market. The strong economic recovery momentum is fundamentally negative for the bond market, while the recent stock market correction is positive for the bond market, but the bond market is at a critical decision - making point [10]. 3. Summary by Product Commodities - **Crude Oil**: OPEC maintains demand and economic growth forecasts. US crude inventories are rising, and there are expectations of increased supply. The price is expected to be bearish at high levels [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash price is in a downward trend. The market is in a state of shock adjustment. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost support is insufficient, but the demand side is resilient. The current supply - demand is healthy, and the price is expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. There is a possibility of supply - demand gap replenishment in the future [5]. - **Threaded Steel**: Due to high - temperature weather affecting construction, steel demand is expected to weaken, and the price may fluctuate weakly [5]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there is a strong expectation of a second price increase due to high coal prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Pig**: The current price is slightly weak. Group - farm sales are increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended for interval trading and farmers can consider hedging [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian export data is negative, and the domestic market is also weak. The price is expected to decline slightly in the short term [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: Trade tariff adjustments cause concerns about soybean supply. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with support at 2900 - 2920 and resistance at 3030 [7][8]. - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is recommended to be shorted at high levels [8]. - **Rubber**: Thai raw materials are stable with a slight increase. The overall supply - demand pattern is of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Methanol**: The cost is stable, the domestic start - up is expected to increase, and the port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Plastic**: Supply is expected to change little, demand is in the off - season, and the L 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [10]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Economic recovery is fundamentally negative for the bond market, but the recent stock market correction is positive. The bond market is at a critical decision - making point near the 60 - day moving average [10]. - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: The short - term capital is tight, which is negative for short - term treasury bonds. The short - end bonds may be weaker than the long - end bonds. The market logic is unclear, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [11]. - **Silver**: Inflation data is slightly high, the dollar index has risen, and silver is expected to fluctuate slightly more. Attention should be paid to the relationship with gold [11]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances have strengthened, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely and be slightly bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the dollar's movement [12].

Group 1: Silver Price Surge - International silver prices have seen a significant increase, with London silver reaching $38.24 per ounce and New York silver at $38.55 per ounce as of July 15, marking a year-to-date increase of 35% [2][3] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets, particularly following Trump's announcement of tariffs on multiple countries [2][3] - Silver ETFs have outperformed gold ETFs, with an 18% increase in the last three months compared to gold's 4% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply has been unable to meet demand, with a reported supply gap of 5,000 tons last year, as total demand reached 36,700 tons while supply was only 31,700 tons [4][5] - The World Silver Association predicts that this supply shortage will continue, with an expected shortfall of approximately 3,660 tons by 2025 [5] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in the photovoltaic and new energy sectors, is a key driver of this increasing demand [3][4] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for changes in U.S. monetary policy under the Federal Reserve are influencing market dynamics for precious metals [6][8] - The potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, impacting the strength of the U.S. dollar and subsequently benefiting gold and silver prices [8][9] - Market participants are advised to remain cautious regarding short-term price movements, particularly for gold, while considering silver as a favorable investment due to its current performance and market conditions [9][10]