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Core Points - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline on April 21, with the Dow Jones falling by 2.48%, the S&P 500 down by 2.36%, and the Nasdaq dropping by 2.55% [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell below the 99 and 98 thresholds, reaching a three-year low, while international gold prices surged above $3,400, with COMEX gold futures rising by 3.21% to $3,435.10 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), saw a 1.88% increase, with a year-to-date gain of 30.51%, and a recent scale of 4.15 billion, attracting over 2.2 billion in funds in the last 60 days [1] - The market is increasingly concerned about the potential removal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the end of his term in 2026, with the likelihood of this happening rising from under 10% at the end of March to 23% [1] Market Sentiment - The trade situation has heightened risk aversion, contributing to a 30% year-to-date increase in gold prices, leading the performance among major assets [2] - The core logic behind the rise in gold prices is attributed to issues surrounding U.S. dollar credit, which are expected to persist and potentially worsen [2] - The U.S. economy faces a dilemma between recession and stagflation, with the Treasury expected to exhaust its funds by the third quarter, prompting Congress to possibly raise the debt ceiling, which may encourage long-term investment in precious metals [2]

Group 1 - The market is currently focused on three major issues: Trump's tariff policy, US-Iran nuclear negotiations, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - Trump's tariff policy is expected to raise inflation expectations, weaken the purchasing power of the dollar, and increase market risk aversion, which is favorable for gold [1] - A breakthrough in US-Iran nuclear negotiations could ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potentially suppressing short-term gold demand, but long-term uncertainties may still support gold prices [1] - If the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance in its interest rate decision, it will further pressure the dollar and support gold [1] Group 2 - Last Friday, gold trading was light due to the Good Friday holiday, but a significant drop of $70 on Thursday did not alter its long-term upward trend [3] - Gold prices surged in early trading, breaking through the new high of 3396 and accelerating to refresh historical highs, with both monthly and weekly charts showing a perfect upward trend [3] - Current resistance levels for gold are between 3396-3400, while support levels are at 3354-3349, with a recommendation to focus on buying during pullbacks and selling on rebounds [3] Group 3 - Strategy 1 suggests selling on rebounds at 3396-3403 with a stop loss at 3410 and a target of 3380-3360 [4] - Strategy 2 recommends buying on pullbacks at 3355-3350 with a stop loss at 3343 and a target of 3380-3400 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by escalating trade tensions and a weakening US dollar, which enhances gold's appeal to international investors [3][4]. Market Performance - As of April 21, gold prices reached $3,383.35 per ounce, up 1.67% from the opening price of $3,334.11 per ounce, with a daily high of $3,385.22 and a low of $3,328.24 [1]. - The market sentiment remains focused on gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over US debt and the credibility of the dollar [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The ongoing trade tensions, exacerbated by US President Trump's tariff policies, have heightened fears of global supply chain disruptions, contributing to a forecasted 0.2% contraction in global goods trade by the World Trade Organization [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, alongside persistent inflationary pressures and uneven economic growth, further supports gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - The current gold price movement is primarily driven by risk aversion stemming from tariff conflicts, with expectations of a potential price drop if tensions ease [3]. - Recent price action shows a bullish trend, with the potential to reach the $3,402 resistance level, while the support level is noted at $3,357 [4]. Strategy Recommendations - The initial strategy for the week suggests focusing on buying during price pullbacks, with a target of $3,400 and a stop-loss set at $3,356 [6]. - If no pullback occurs, a direct buy strategy is recommended, maintaining the same target [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Insights - Gold prices are influenced by tariff policies, which create uncertainty and trigger risk aversion in the short term. The expectation of stagflation in the U.S. due to tariffs positions gold as an optimal asset allocation choice in the medium term. Long-term, the loosening of global capital ties to dollar assets may lead to increased inflows into gold from various global funds [1][9]. - The Federal Reserve's neutral stance is seen as supportive for gold prices, with recent comments from officials indicating no immediate need for rate hikes, which helps maintain a favorable environment for gold [1][9]. - Copper prices are stabilizing, with improving demand and decreasing domestic inventory. The report suggests that copper mining equities present a good opportunity for long-term investment [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Research Insights - Gold's price dynamics are primarily driven by tariff uncertainties, which affect market sentiment and asset allocation strategies [1][9]. - The Federal Reserve's current neutral position is beneficial for gold prices, with no immediate rate hikes expected [1][9]. 2. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 0.78%, underperforming the broader market [12]. - Gold was the best-performing segment, rising by 4.58%, followed by nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony [12]. 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1. New Energy Metals - Cobalt prices increased, while lithium prices showed a slight decline [21][23]. 3.2. Base Metals - Copper prices rose by 1.63% to 76,000 CNY/ton, while aluminum prices remained stable [31][32]. 3.3. Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices rose by 2.6% to 3,328 USD/ounce, and silver prices increased by 1.8% to 32.47 USD/ounce [44][45].

【#资金大量流向黄金避险##欧美将公布重要数据#反映关税战对企业冲击】上周，市场仍聚焦美国 就"对等关税"与各方的谈判进程，依赖海外市场的科技巨头上周延续下跌势头，拖累主要股指。此外， 美国总统特朗普多次喊话美联储尽快降息，市场担忧美联储货币政策独立性受到干扰，引发了部分资金 继续撤离美股和美债等资产。美国三大股指上周集体下跌。其中道指下跌2.66%，标普500指数下跌 1.50%，纳指下跌2.62%。 特斯拉、谷歌等多行业巨头本周将发布最新财报 国际金价再创收盘历史新高 上周累计涨超2% 贵金属市场方面，由于投资者继续减持美股、美债、美元，资金大量流向黄金避险，推动国际金价上 涨，上周三纽约商品交易所6月黄金期价再创收盘历史新高，首次收于每盎司3300美元关口上方。国际 金价上周累计涨幅为2.58%。 欧美将公布4月制造业与服务业PMI初值 将反映关税战对企业的冲击 数据方面，本周三，美国、欧元区和英国将分别公布4月制造业与服务业PMI初值。美国制造业PMI中 的投入价格指数尤其值得关注，它被标普全球称为衡量关税通胀压力的"第一站"。3月这项指标一度升 至两年来的最高水平，反映美国企业的成本压力加剧。分析人 ...

每经编辑 毕陆名 美东时间周三，因美联储主席鲍威尔对关税经济影响的担忧等因素引发投资者恐慌，美国股市当日收盘大幅下跌。道 琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌近700点，跌幅1.73%，标准普尔500指数收跌2.24%，纳斯达克综合指数收跌3.07%。 美东时间周三，受美联储主席鲍威尔鹰派发言影响，三大指数集体大跌，纳指以逾3%的跌幅领跌。 英伟达股价当日下跌6.9%，创下自1月份以来的最大单日跌幅。此外，其他芯片制造商的股价也跟随英伟达股价下 跌，超威半导体股价下跌超过7%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收盘跌2.72%。热门中概股集体下挫，京东、小鹏汽车跌超5%，阿里巴巴跌超4%。 富时中国A50指数期货夜盘收跌0.3%。 商品市场，现货黄金在周四开盘续创新高，突破3350美元关口，隔夜累涨逾100美元。 | | V | 现货黄金 XAU | | A | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3355.03+ | | | | +12.08 | +0.36% 06:13:10 | | 开盘 3343.24 | 最高 3355.78 | | 最低 3342.91 | | 昨收 334 ...

Market Overview - The ongoing tariff war continues to impact the capital markets, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.91% to close at 21,056.98 points, marking the end of a six-day rally [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell nearly 5%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.55% [1] - Despite the short-term risks, the market has structural support due to domestic demand orientation, continuous southbound capital support, and relatively stable RMB exchange rates [1] Blue Chip Performance - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) led blue-chip gains, rising 3.01% to HKD 37.7, contributing 1.23 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Longfor Group (00960) and China Resources Land (01109) both increased by 1.9%, contributing 0.65 points and 2.65 points respectively [2] - Xinyi Solar (00968) and Sunny Optical Technology (02382) faced declines of 6.62% and 4.76%, dragging the index down by 1.42 points and 3.57 points respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Alibaba dropping over 4% and Tencent down 1.75% [3] - Gold stocks surged as international gold prices surpassed USD 3,300 per ounce, with notable gains in companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) up 21.17% [3][4] - Real estate stocks saw some upward movement, with Sunac China (01918) rising 5.63% and Longfor Group (00960) increasing by 1.9% [4][5] Apple Concept Stocks - Apple-related stocks faced significant declines, with companies like Cowell e Holdings (01415) and Sunny Optical (02382) dropping 7.97% and 4.76% respectively [5] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection updated import tariffs, which may affect the pricing of consumer electronics, although some products were temporarily exempted [5][6] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector collectively declined, with XPeng Motors (09868) down 6.92% and Li Auto (02015) down 3.93% [6] - The U.S. announced a 25% tariff on imported cars starting April 3, 2024, but the impact on Chinese exports to the U.S. is expected to be minimal [6] Notable Stock Movements - Man Kwan Group (03390) saw a dramatic drop of 90.26% before being suspended, following a significant decline in revenue and profit [7] - Lion Group (02562) surged by 27.36%, attributed to increased consumer interest in Chinese shopping apps in the U.S. [8]

Core Viewpoint - The United States has initiated substantive trade negotiations with Japan, aiming to establish Japan as a model case for agreements with other countries following the recent tariff delay announcement [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Trade Negotiations - Japan is the first country to engage in substantial trade negotiations with the U.S. after the tariff delay, indicating a strategic choice by the U.S. [1][2]. - The U.S. intends to use Japan as a template for future agreements with other nations, highlighting the importance of this negotiation [2]. Group 2: Potential U.S. Demands on Japan - The U.S. may push Japan to set explicit trade surplus targets, which could force Japan to reduce exports and increase imports, impacting its trade balance [3]. - Other potential demands include pushing for yen appreciation, which could harm Japanese export-oriented companies and hinder economic recovery [3]. - The U.S. might also request Japan to extend the maturity of its U.S. Treasury holdings, limiting Japan's foreign exchange reserve flexibility [3]. Group 3: Japanese Government's Stance - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida emphasized the importance of not compromising too quickly for a deal, advocating for a careful approach to negotiations [4]. - The potential U.S. demands could significantly impact Japan's financial markets, with warnings of a rapid depreciation of the dollar and a substantial appreciation of the yen [4]. Group 4: Impact on Japanese Economy and Bond Market - A stronger yen could reduce the competitiveness of Japanese exports, adversely affecting manufacturing firms that rely heavily on exports [5]. - Increased fiscal spending, as suggested by the U.S., would require Japan to issue more government bonds, exacerbating supply pressures in the bond market [5]. - The Japanese long-term bond market is already showing signs of instability, with recent spikes in yields indicating market volatility [5]. Group 5: Global Market Implications - Nomura warns of a global bond market imbalance and tightening liquidity risks, which could lead to broader credit contractions [7]. - The recent fluctuations in global stock markets and the widening of high-yield bond spreads indicate ongoing credit tightening [7].

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