中央经济工作会议刚刚落幕，2026年的经济工作蓝图已经铺开。在八大重点任务中，"坚持内需主导， 建设强大国内市场"被摆在首位，这不仅体现了决策层对当前经济形势的深刻洞察，更释放出一个清晰 而坚定的信号：中国经济的光明前景，正蕴藏于14亿多人民日益增长的美好生活需要之中。 此次会议提出"深入实施提振消费专项行动"，并"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"，抓住了扩大内需的根 本。收入是消费的基础，没有稳定的收入增长，消费就缺乏支撑。 因此，把"增收"作为提振消费的前提，体现了政策设计的系统性和前瞻性。会议强调"着力稳就业、稳 企业、稳市场、稳预期"，正是为了夯实居民收入增长的根基。只有企业稳了，岗位才稳；岗位稳了， 收入才稳；收入稳了，消费信心才能真正恢复。 值得关注的是，会议特别强调要"释放服务消费潜力"，并提出"清理消费领域不合理限制措施"。这一提 法具有很强的现实针对性。 2024年，我国居民人均服务性消费支出占人均消费支出的比重为46.1%，与发达国家相比仍有明显差 距。无论是文旅休闲、教育培训，还是医疗康养、信息通信，服务消费需求旺盛，但一些体制机制障碍 仍制约着供给质量和效率。此次明确提出清理消费领域不合理限 ...

扫码文末"投小圈" 加入行业交流群 文章来源：张明宏观金融研究 作者：张明 01 对经济工作的认识与体会 2024年中央经济工作会议：必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既"放得活"又"管得住"的经济 秩序；必须统筹好总供给和总需求的关系；必须统筹好培育新动能和更新旧动能的关系；必须统筹好做 优增量和盘活存量的关系；必须统筹好提升质量和做大总量的关系。 2025年中央经济工作会议：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到 既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 解读 在2025年，中国政府多次强调"投资于物和投资于人紧密结合"， 未来与教育、培训、医疗、养老的投 资可能会明显增加。"充分挖掘经济潜能"和"苦练内功"本质上是一脉相承的，如何扩大内需尤其是提振 消费仍是当务之急。 02 经济工作基调 2024年中央经济工作会议：更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求，推动 科技创新和产业创新融合发展，稳住楼市股市，防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击，稳定预期、激发活 力，推动经济持续回升向好，不断提高人民生活水平，保 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a fluctuation with a weekly trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan, reaching over 2 trillion yuan on Monday and Friday. The index fell by 0.34% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%, the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74%, and the STAR 50 Index gained 1.72% [1][3][5] Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference held in December set the direction for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand, fostering new growth drivers, and mitigating risks as key tasks to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3][8] - November exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to recover, increasing by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024 [11][12] Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a focus on quality improvement and effective growth. The policy framework aims to transition from scale growth to quality enhancement, emphasizing the need for better coordination between domestic economic work and international trade challenges [9][10][20] - The meeting introduced new policy measures, including flexible use of monetary tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain liquidity and support investment recovery [10][20] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as Technology, Media, Telecommunications (TMT), public utilities, finance, and electric power equipment for potential investment opportunities [15][20] Export and Import Dynamics - The report notes that while exports to the U.S. have decreased, exports to emerging markets remain robust, with significant growth in automobile exports, which surged by 53% year-on-year. However, imports showed a modest increase of 1.9% year-on-year, influenced by weak energy prices and sluggish domestic demand [11][12]

Group 1 - The financial system must deeply learn and implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, accurately grasp the economic situation and main objectives, and firmly maintain confidence and determination in financial work [1] - Emphasis on risk prevention and control, particularly regarding local small and medium financial institutions, financial risks related to real estate companies, and local government financing platform debts, with a focus on strict control of new risks and proper handling of existing risks [1] - The need to strengthen financial regulation, improve regulatory systems in key areas, enhance compliance and risk awareness among financial institutions, and increase regulatory capabilities [1] Group 2 - The importance of strengthening the Party's comprehensive leadership over financial work, thoroughly understanding and implementing the directives of General Secretary Xi Jinping, and promoting strict governance within the Party [2] - The necessity to prepare the "14th Five-Year" financial-related plans and enhance work coordination to ensure a good start for financial work during this period [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference communiqué is consistent with the Political Bureau meeting in tone and core content but has more details and incremental information compared to last year [3][5]. - Service consumption and optimized stock investment may contribute to the economic "good start" next year, but their sustainability is uncertain due to limited incremental fiscal space [7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Situation Assessment - The assessment of the situation shows more confidence. This year's conference used a more neutral description of the external environment, and internal problems are considered solvable. The priority of risk - prevention work has dropped [5]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy shows more determination. The tone of "more proactive" is the same as last year, but details suggest that the total fiscal space may not change significantly next year, and some fiscal preferential policies may be selectively phased out [5]. Monetary Policy - Monetary policy mentions "dual cuts" again. It emphasizes "flexible and efficient use" of policy tools like reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, with a lower timeliness requirement than last year [6]. Expanding Domestic Demand - "Adhering to domestic demand leadership" is the top priority. The focus of consumption policy is on optimizing the structure and service consumption, and service consumption is expected to be the incremental part next year [6]. Investment - The requirement for investment to "stop falling and stabilize" is unusual. Next year's investment funds will come from optimizing central budgetary investment, local government special bonds, and continuing to use new policy - based financial tools (500 billion new financial tools) [7]. Industry Emphasis - The conference emphasizes "Artificial Intelligence +", requiring "deepening and expanding" and "improving governance" for relevant industries [7]. Market Regulation - The implementation of "anti - involution" has increased. The construction of a unified national market and the in - depth rectification of "involution - style competition" are key tasks, which will drive a positive cycle and improve corporate profitability [8]. Real Estate and Debt - Real estate is placed in risk - prevention work, indicating possible incremental policies. The conference also requires actively and orderly resolving local government debt risks, with debt resolution remaining a key task for local governments next year [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a systematic and practical approach to economic policy in China, focusing on targeted and effective measures to address existing challenges while maintaining long-term growth potential [4][5]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference has shifted from general principles to a more systematic and practical approach, emphasizing "targeted precision" and "solid implementation" in economic policies [5]. - The conference acknowledges the intertwining of long-term positive economic trends with new challenges, advocating for integrated effects of existing and new policies rather than a scattered use of policy tools [5][7]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas - The conference identifies three main focus areas: expanding domestic demand, fostering innovation and reform, and addressing risk in key sectors such as real estate and local government debt [10]. - It highlights the need to tackle demand shortfalls, enhance innovation-driven growth, and manage risks effectively, particularly in the real estate market and local government debt [10][19]. Group 3: Practical Implementation - The article outlines specific actions to boost domestic demand, including initiatives to enhance consumer spending and increase investment through government support and private sector engagement [13][14]. - It stresses the importance of aligning consumption and investment strategies to create a robust foundation for domestic demand growth [14][15]. Group 4: Innovation and Reform - The conference sets a clear agenda for innovation, including the establishment of international technology innovation centers and the promotion of a collaborative ecosystem for technology and industry integration [16]. - It emphasizes the need for reforms that dismantle barriers and release institutional dividends, with specific regulations and action plans to support private enterprises and improve the business environment [17]. Group 5: Social Welfare and Risk Management - The article discusses measures to enhance social welfare, focusing on employment stability, education, healthcare, and support for vulnerable groups, ensuring a safety net for the population [18]. - It outlines a structured approach to risk management, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, advocating for precise and gradual measures to mitigate systemic risks [19][20]. Group 6: Capital Market Development - The article highlights the importance of deepening capital market reforms to enhance attractiveness and inclusivity, aiming to create a multi-layered and differentiated market system [22][23]. - It calls for optimizing return mechanisms for investors and improving the regulatory framework to support long-term investments and facilitate market access for various stakeholders [22][23].

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要更好统筹国内经济工 作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同 性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大 市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有 效提升和量的合理增长。 简评：本次中央经济工作会议为2026年经济工作定调"稳中求进、提质增效"，政策组合拳力度显著。财 政货币政策协同发力，财政赤字与债务规模保持必要力度，货币政策强调降准降息工具运用与流动性充 裕。重点任务聚焦内需主导、创新驱动、改革攻坚等八大方向，尤其突出扩大消费、激活民间投资、发 展新质生产力、化解地产与地方债务风险，政策导向明确且具操作性，有望为"十五五"开局奠定坚实基 础，逐步提振市场信心。 世界银行发布最新一期中国经济简报，预计2025年中国经济增长率为4.9%，较此前预期上调0.4个百分 点。世行表示，中国政府更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策支撑了国内消费和投资。同时，中 国出口市场更加多元化，为保持出口 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic demand and economic growth, with a focus on moderate policy stimulus that is data-driven and efficiency-oriented [3] - The central economic work conference outlines three main investment themes for the upcoming year: expanding domestic demand, promoting technological and industrial innovation, and advancing the construction of a unified national market [3] Group 1: Expanding Domestic Demand - The conference highlights the need to implement special actions to boost consumption, develop urban and rural income plans, and optimize the supply of quality goods and services [3] - It suggests that improving consumer capacity, enhancing willingness to consume, and creating favorable consumption conditions are essential for driving future consumption growth in China [3] - Key sectors to focus on include new retail, dining, hospitality, cultural tourism, and modern services such as healthcare, elderly care, childcare, and finance [3] Group 2: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The report calls for a comprehensive plan to advance education and technology talent development, strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation, and implement high-quality development actions for key industrial chains [3] - It emphasizes the strategic direction of artificial intelligence (AI) development, advocating for the "AI+" initiative to enhance technological research and industrial upgrading [3] - Investment opportunities are identified in high-end manufacturing, renewable energy, and AI-related industries, with a particular focus on AI application implementation in the coming year [3] Group 3: Unified National Market Construction - The conference indicates the need to establish regulations for a unified national market and to address "involution" competition [3] - The "anti-involution" approach is expected to support inflation and improve supply-demand relationships in traditional cyclical industries, while also benefiting emerging industries by regulating competition [3] - Sectors likely to benefit include new energy vehicles, e-commerce, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, as they may experience enhanced output efficiency [3] Short-term Market Judgments and Investment Strategies - The report notes that while the central economic work conference has released positive policy signals, the short-term market will still be influenced by liquidity factors and market sentiment [3] - It suggests a balanced investment strategy, combining defensive sectors like banking, insurance, telecommunications, and utilities with growth sectors in technology, particularly those with strong AI attributes and reasonable valuations [3] - The report recommends focusing on AI-leading companies in the Hong Kong stock market and opportunities in the A-share computing power industry chain and AI application layer [3]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the implementation of more proactive macro policies to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, aiming for qualitative and quantitative economic growth in 2026 [1][2] - The focus on domestic demand is reinforced, with a goal to build a strong domestic market, addressing the current issue of insufficient effective demand, as consumer spending in 2023 accounted for only 39.57% of GDP, significantly lower than global and regional averages [2] - The conference highlights the importance of innovation-driven growth, aiming to cultivate new economic drivers, with a focus on sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology to enhance productivity and address structural challenges [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy is set to be more proactive, with a focus on quality and efficiency, indicating confidence in the resilience of the domestic economy and a reduced need for extraordinary stimulus measures [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a certain degree of expansion, with a projected fiscal deficit rate between 3.5% and 4% for 2026, emphasizing the integration of existing and new policies to enhance economic governance [5] - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [6] Group 3 - The real estate sector is shifting from being an economic engine to a cornerstone of people's livelihoods, with policies aimed at promoting quality housing and new development models [7] - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, supported by ongoing reforms in investment and financing, contributing to wealth preservation and economic transformation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasizes five essential approaches for economic work under new circumstances, including fully tapping economic potential and combining policy support with reform innovation [2] Group 1: Domestic Market and Consumption - The conference highlights the need to build a strong domestic market, focusing on boosting consumer spending and income to enhance residents' consumption capacity [3] - Specific measures include implementing actions to stimulate consumption, improving supply quality, and stabilizing employment and income expectations [3] - The emphasis is on optimizing policies for service consumption and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [3] Group 2: Innovation and New Momentum - The conference stresses the importance of innovation-driven development and aims to establish international technology innovation centers in key regions [4] - It calls for a new round of high-quality development actions for key industrial chains, particularly in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and energy storage [4][5] - Policies will focus on enhancing the innovation ecosystem and protecting intellectual property rights in emerging fields [4] Group 3: Reform and Market Vitality - The conference outlines reforms to enhance market vitality, including the establishment of a unified national market and addressing "involution" in competition [6][7] - It emphasizes the need for tax system reforms to improve local financial capabilities and support consumer-driven competition [7] - Measures will also target the revitalization of state-owned and private enterprises, addressing issues like overdue payments to private firms [7] Group 4: External Cooperation and Trade - The conference reiterates the importance of steady external openness, particularly in the service sector, and encourages the development of digital and green trade [8] - It aims to accelerate the signing of regional and bilateral trade agreements to enhance international cooperation [8] Group 5: Regional Development and Urban-Rural Integration - The conference promotes urban-rural integration and regional collaboration, focusing on the development of county towns and revitalizing rural areas [9][10] - It emphasizes the need for coordinated development among major city clusters and enhancing cross-regional cooperation [9] Group 6: Green Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The conference prioritizes green transformation, emphasizing the development of a new energy system and the promotion of energy efficiency in key industries [11][12] - It aims to expand the application of green electricity and strengthen the national carbon trading market [12] Group 7: Social Welfare and Public Services - The conference addresses key social welfare issues, including employment, social security, education, and healthcare, with a focus on stabilizing the birth rate [13] - It proposes comprehensive solutions to reduce burdens on residents in these areas, aiming to enhance overall living standards [13] Group 8: Risk Management and Real Estate - The conference outlines strategies for risk management, particularly in the real estate sector, shifting focus from stabilizing prices to controlling supply and inventory [14][15] - It emphasizes the need for reforms in housing provident funds and improving the financial health of local governments [14]