Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The US is experiencing reduced uncertainty in economic growth due to the resolution of tariff negotiations with major trading partners, but inflation concerns are resurfacing[1] - Global inflation risks are increasing, potentially reversing expectations for interest rate cuts, which may impact financial markets in August and September[1] - The US government recorded a fiscal surplus of $27 billion in June, the first surplus in June in nearly eight years, which may alleviate some fiscal pressure from tax cuts[8] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economic stabilization in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by increased fiscal spending and rapid export growth, but the real estate sector continues to face contraction pressures[1] - The "anti-involution" policy may become a central theme in the second half of the year, potentially improving market supply-demand relationships and restoring market confidence[1] - Real estate sales in the first half of 2025 saw a significant decline, with new residential prices in 70 major cities dropping by 0.3% month-on-month in June[14] Group 3: Asset Allocation Insights - International stock markets have been the main source of profit in July, buoyed by positive sentiment from US-EU trade agreements, offsetting declines in domestic and international bond markets[2] - The strategy for August maintains the July allocations, with a focus on hedging positions in Japanese and Italian stocks against German stocks, while being bearish on the international bond market[2] - Commodity prices, particularly crude oil, have seen seasonal increases, while gold remains attractive as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties[2]

Report Title Precious Metals Weekly Report (July 21 - July 25) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, domestic commodities surged, and precious metal prices rose first and then fell. Silver remained stronger than gold. The prices of precious metals were supported by the domestic commodity boom despite trade agreement news from Japan and the EU. The expectation of a Fed rate cut continued to rise, and there were still supports for precious metal prices. Affected by the domestic industrial clearance policy, precious metal prices might be supported by non - ferrous metal prices, and silver prices had strong capital support [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - **Precious Metal Price Movements**: - Shanghai Gold 2510 closed up 0.26%, reaching a maximum of 794 yuan/gram; COMEX Gold closed down 0.2%, reaching a maximum of 3451.7 dollars/ounce. - Shanghai Silver 2510 closed up 2.4%, reaching a new historical high of 9526 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Silver closed up 0.06%, reaching a maximum of 39.91 dollars/ounce, the highest since September 2011. - SGE Gold T + D closed up 0.29%, and SGE Silver T + D closed up 2.21%. - London Gold Spot closed down 0.4%, and London Silver Spot closed down 0.03%. - The US Dollar Index closed down 0.8%, and the US Dollar against Offshore RMB closed down 0.18% [4][12]. - **Trade Agreement News**: - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement with a 15% tariff rate, and Japan would invest 550 billion dollars in the US, with the US getting 90% of the profits. - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU would increase investment in the US by 600 billion dollars, buy US military equipment and 750 billion dollars of US energy products [12][13]. - **Economic Data**: - The US July Markit Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction, but the overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December. - The Eurozone July PMI rose to 51, a new high in nearly a year. Germany's manufacturing industry showed signs of recovery, while France's economy continued to shrink due to political deadlock. - US June existing - home sales dropped to the lowest level in nearly 15 years, while housing prices reached a new historical high [14][15]. 2. Weekly Review - **Market Focus**: This week, the China - US trade negotiation and the August 1 tariff "deadline" were the focuses, and the Fed's interest rate decision was highly anticipated. The US would also release key data such as non - farm payrolls, GDP, and PCE. The Bank of Japan would announce the target interest rate. China would hold a Politburo meeting at the end of July and release the official manufacturing PMI data [12]. - **Position Analysis**: - For Shanghai Gold, the net position decreased slightly, with more long positions added and short positions reduced, and the fluctuation was very limited. - For Shanghai Silver, the net position continued to increase, with both long and short positions increasing significantly. - CFTC net positions fluctuated slightly, with both long and short positions of gold and silver increasing, but the increase in short positions was limited [12]. 3. Fundamental Data - **ETF Positions**: SPDR Gold ETF positions continued to increase, and silver ETF positions increased in a fluctuating manner [31][33]. - **Inventory Data**: - COMEX Gold inventory increased slightly, and COMEX Silver inventory decreased slightly. - Shanghai Gold inventory data was presented, and Shanghai Silver inventory increased in a fluctuating manner [36][38]. 4. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: This week, long positions were 216,889, an increase of 5.34% from last week; short positions were 66,199, an increase of 5.86%; the net position was 150,690, an increase of 5.12% [23]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: This week, long positions were 448,932, a decrease of 8.03% from last week; short positions were 348,227, a decrease of 7.89%; the net position was 100,705, a decrease of 8.53% [26]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 22, the net long position of CFTC gold increased significantly, with more long positions added and short positions reduced; the net long position of CFTC silver increased slightly, also with more long positions added and short positions reduced [27]. 5. Summary - Tariff agreements had no progress, the expectation of a rate cut increased significantly, and there were still supports for precious metal prices. Affected by the domestic industrial clearance policy, precious metal prices might be supported by non - ferrous metal prices, and silver prices were still relatively strong [12].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 1502.800 | -28.1↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1737.8 | | +7.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 -235.00 | -42.30↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -38.20 | | -46.90↓ | | EC合约基差 813.76 -59.24↓ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 50694 717↑ | | | | | | 2316.56 SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -83.94↓ SCFIS（美西线） ...

菲律宾央行行长：降息时机仍取决于数据。 ...

菲律宾央行行长：今年有望再降息两次。与美国的贸易协议有利于经济增长。 ...

Group 1 - The US and EU have reached a trade agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US, which is lower than the previously threatened 30% but higher than the EU's desired 10% [2][3] - The EU is expected to increase investments in the US by $600 billion and purchase military equipment worth several hundred billion dollars, along with $750 billion in energy products [2][3] - The agreement is seen as beneficial for the German automotive industry and the export-oriented German economy, helping to avoid a trade conflict [3] Group 2 - The US is finalizing reciprocal tariff rates with over 200 trade partners, with a deadline set for August 1, and the Commerce Secretary has stated that this deadline will not be extended [4] - The US government has collected hundreds of billions in tariffs this year, with most of the burden falling on American businesses rather than consumers [8][9] - Analysts predict that if tariffs increase in August, US retailers may have to raise prices, leading to potential inflationary pressures on consumers [9]

Core Viewpoint - The visit of President Trump to the Federal Reserve marks a significant challenge to the institution's independence, as he pressures for interest rate cuts amid economic concerns [1][3][5]. Economic Context - The U.S. economy is facing pressure, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first decline in three years [1]. - Consumer spending growth has sharply decreased from 4% in Q4 2024 to 1.8% in Q1 2025, while corporate investment increased by 9.8%, insufficient to offset the negative impacts of rising imports and reduced government spending [1]. Interest Rate Policy - Trump advocates for lowering the benchmark interest rate from the current range of 4.25% to 4.50% down to 1%, claiming it could save over $1 trillion in borrowing costs and stimulate economic growth [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, is cautious about rate cuts, with the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting expected to maintain current rates while assessing inflation and employment responses to tariff policies [3][5]. Tension Between White House and Federal Reserve - The interaction between Trump and Powell during the visit highlighted the tension, with Powell emphasizing that decisions are based on economic data rather than political pressure [3][6]. - Trump's visit breaks the long-standing tradition of presidential non-interference in Federal Reserve operations, raising concerns about the potential erosion of the institution's independence [3][6]. Political Implications - Analysts suggest Trump's actions are politically motivated, aiming to boost the economy and stock market ahead of the 2025 election [5][8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the stability of the U.S. dollar, which has seen a 9% decline since Trump's return to the presidency, with speculative short positions on the dollar reaching a high not seen since October 2024 [5][6]. Global Financial Impact - The ongoing power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve could have significant implications for global financial markets, as changes in U.S. monetary policy affect capital flows and currency stability worldwide [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Due to the passage of the US stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and other assets, the Trump administration's pressure on Powell increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and unresolved geopolitical risks, the downside space for precious metal prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] Summary by Relevant Data Gold - **Futures Market**: Shanghai gold futures active contract closing price was 777.32 on 2025 - 07 - 21, 778.74 on 2025 - 07 - 25, 781.70 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 4.38 compared to a certain reference. Volume decreased from 331217.00 to 216188.00, and open interest decreased by 1605. Inventory (in ten - grams) increased from 29358.00 to 30258.00. COMEX futures active contract closing price was 9392.00 on one date, 9386.00 on another, and 9271.00 on a third, with a change of 6.00. Volume decreased from 1253182.00 to 742060.00, and open interest decreased by 16707. Inventory (in troy ounces) decreased from 37762393.92 to 37143884.29 [1] - **Spot Market**: Shanghai gold spot closing price was 773.61, with a change of - 3.39 compared to a reference. Spot - futures basis was - 3.71 on one date, - 3.64 on another, and - 4.70 on a third, with a change of - 0.07. London gold spot price was 3343.50, 3365.85, and 3318.50 on different dates, with a change of 25.00. SPDR gold ETF holding was 957.09, and iShare gold ETF holding was 449.60 [1] Silver - **Futures Market**: Shanghai silver futures active contract closing price was 9392.00 on one date, 9386.00 on another, and 9271.00 on a third, with a change of 6.00. Volume decreased from 1253182.00 to 742060.00, and open interest decreased by 16707. Inventory (in ten - grams) decreased from 1188721.00 to 1204466.00. COMEX futures active contract closing price was 38.33, 39.29, and 38.44 on different dates, with a change of - 0.11. Volume decreased from 23117.00 to 17478.00, and open interest decreased by 1072. Inventory (in troy ounces) decreased from 3632208.40 to 497804173.90 [1] - **Spot Market**: Shanghai silver spot closing price was 146.00, 9372.00, 9351.00, and 9226.00 on different dates, with a change of 21.00. Spot - futures basis was - 35.00 on one date, 25.00 on another, and - 20.00 on a third, with a change of - 0.07. London silver spot price was 38.74, 39.03, and 37.76 on different dates, with a change of - 0.29. US iShare silver ETF holding was 15230.43, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holding was 6040.98 [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of Shanghai gold spot price to Shanghai silver spot price was 82.97, 84.32, and 82.76 on different dates, with a change of - 1.55. The ratio of New York gold futures price to New York silver futures price was 87.11, 85.82, and 87.04 on different dates, with a change of 0.07. The ratio of London gold spot price to London silver spot price was 86.32, 86.25, and 87.90 on different dates, with a change of - 1.58 [1] Other Commodities - INE crude oil price was 512.90, 4.00, and 508.90 on different dates, with a change of - 3.90. ICE Brent crude oil price was - 2.05, 68.53, and 67.60 on different dates, with a change of - 0.93. NYMEX crude oil price was 65.07, 66.16, and 66.31 on different dates, with a change of - 1.09. Shanghai copper futures price was 79250.00, 79890.00, and 79700.00 on different dates, with a change of - 450.00. LME copper spot price was 9867.00, - 58.50, and 9796.00 on different dates, with a change of - 71.00. Shanghai rebar price was 3356.00, 3294.00, and 3224.00 on different dates, with a change of 62.00. Dalian iron ore price was 802.50, 811.00, and 809.00 on different dates, with a change of - 8.50 [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Shanghai inter - bank offered rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.52, 1.37, and 1.64 on different dates, with a change of - 0.12. SHIBOR one - year was 1.63, 1.62, and 1.64 on different dates, with a change of 0.01. US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4300, 4.4000, and 4.4700 on different dates, with a change of - 0.03. US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0400, - 0.02, and 1.9800 on different dates, with a change of - 0.08. US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.4400, 2.4500, and 2.4300 on different dates, with a change of - 0.01. US dollar index was 97.6701, 97.4884, and 98.6419 on different dates, with a change of - 0.97. US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.1385, 7.1419, and 7.1522 on different dates, with a change of 0.00. Euro - RMB central parity rate was 8.4077, 8.3228, and 8.4001 on different dates, with a change of - 0.01 [1] Stock Indices - Shanghai Composite Index was 3593.6553, - 12.07, and 3605.7269 on different dates, with a change of 33.86. S&P 500 was 6363.3500, 6388.6400, and 6297.3600 on different dates, with a change of 25.29. UK FTSE 100 was 9120.3100, 9138.3700, and 8972.6400 on different dates, with a change of 147.67. French CAC40 was 7818.2800, 7834.5800, and 7822.0000 on different dates, with a change of 16.30. German DAX was 24217.5000, 24295.9300, and 24370.9300 on different dates, with a change of - 78.43. Nikkei 225 was 41456.2300, 41826.3400, and 39901.1900 on different dates, with a change of - 370.11. South Korean Composite Index was 3192.2900, 3.76, and 3196.0500 on different dates, with a change of 5.60 [1] Important Information - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff trade agreement, with Trump stating that the EU would increase investment in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of energy products [1] - After the Japan - US agreement, the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes within the year. There are different views on the " $550 billion investment" [1] - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and digital currencies. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US consumer - end inflation annual rate in June. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected. The probability of a Fed rate cut in August increased, but the probability in February decreased [1] - The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France continued to rise in July. The eurozone (Germany) consumer price index annual rate in June was 2% (2%), meeting expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects the ECB to cut rates about once before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May, continuing to reduce government bond holdings from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK consumer price index annual rate in June was 3.68% (3.7%), higher than expected. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected. The expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England in August increased, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% in January and may start reducing quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The core consumer price index annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), meeting expectations but lower than the previous value. There is still an expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the above factors, the downside space for precious metal prices may be limited. Investors are recommended to mainly lay out long positions on dips. The support and resistance levels for London gold are around 3150 - 3250 and 3600 - 3700 respectively, for Shanghai gold around 730 - 760 and 800 - 850, for London silver around 35 - 37 and around 40 - 48, and for Shanghai silver around 8600 - 9000 and 9500 - 10000 [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the US stock market is entering a busy earnings season, with all three major indices rising due to positive economic data and good earnings expectations [2][8] - The report notes that the market is currently in a "policy observation period + earnings verification period," with significant data releases and earnings reports expected in the coming week [2][8] - Key economic indicators to watch include the Q2 annualized GDP growth rate, July non-farm payroll data, and core PCE inflation data, along with earnings reports from major tech companies [2][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that global major asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nikkei 225 (+4.11%) having the largest gain, while NYMEX light crude oil (-3.31%) experienced the largest decline [3][31] - In the equity market, the healthcare sector in the US saw the highest increase at +3.67%, while the materials sector in Hong Kong rose by +8.16% [3][40] - The report also mentions that the financial sector in Japan had a significant increase of +13.22% [3][40] Group 3 - The report provides updates on important economic data, noting that the US leading economic index for June was -0.3%, below previous and forecasted values [9] - It also highlights that the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for July was -20, significantly lower than previous and expected values [9] - The report states that the US housing market is showing signs of weakness, with June existing home sales annualized at 3.93 million, below previous and forecasted figures [9]

Group 1 - Japan's potential return of $4 trillion in overseas funds due to interest rate changes could impact global asset prices positively, particularly benefiting the yen and Japanese stock market [1][5] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with a low likelihood of a rate cut in July, despite pressure from the White House [2][3] - The ongoing U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations are crucial, with preliminary agreements reached but details still under discussion, indicating a complex political landscape in Japan [3][4] Group 2 - Japan's ten-year bond yield has surpassed 1.6%, the highest since April 2008, indicating rising inflation pressures and the need for the Bank of Japan to normalize interest rates [4][5] - The Bank of Japan faces challenges with inflation at 3%, rising living costs, and the impact of tariffs, complicating its monetary policy decisions [4][5] - There is a significant amount of Japanese private sector funds, approximately $4.4 trillion, invested overseas, which may return to Japan as interest rates rise, affecting global capital flows [5][6]