美国第二季度GDP终值年化环比增长3.8%，较修正值3.3%大幅上调，创近两年最快增速。上修主要得 益于消费者支出的意外强劲以及进口的下降。核心PCE物价指数终值由2.5%上调至2.6%。 【黄金期货行情表现】 【机构观点】 9月26日，沪金主力暂报856.12元/克，涨幅达0.02%，今日沪金主力开盘价854.00元/克，截至目前最高 858.80元/克，最低850.74元/克。 黄金涨势暂缓。鲍威尔最近一次讲话中表示，就业下行风险证明降息是合理的，但通胀仍然有些高企， 政策取决于数据，延续了9月美联储会议时的谨慎姿态。美联储金融监理副主席鲍曼周二表示，美联储 在支持就业市场方面可能行动过于缓慢，如果需求状况恶化、企业开始财源，届时可能需要加快降息的 速度。上周，9月美联储风险管理式降息25个基点，符合市场预期。仅有刚被任命的美联储理事米兰支 持降息50个基点。在特朗普持续施压的背景下，美联储的降息姿态仍然较为谨慎，不过降息前景较为明 确。市场预期今年剩余两次会议均将降息。本周接连有几位联储官员讲话释放谨慎态度，但市场情绪整 体并未受其打压。市场预期关税对通胀影响或持续性有限，并对四季度投资增长有一定期待。 ...

现在市场啥样呢，大家都在猜，美联储啥时候降息啊，根据CME"美联储观察"，多数人觉得10月降息 的可能性比较大，12月可能会降更多，特别是9月25号那天，好多美联储官员都出来说话了，个个都发 表了自己对于降息的看法，以后还得接着关注开会的内容，最关键的还是通胀和劳动力市场数据，这直 接决定美联储的行动，还有全球经济，万一出点啥事，美国也得跟着遭殃，关税政策也有影响，长时间 下来，对通胀和经济肯定有影响，10月，12月，美联储议息会议，估计又得吵翻天。 其实大家也在想，这到底是怎么一回事，争议的背后，是害怕滞胀，就是经济停滞不前，物价还涨得厉 害，这种情况下，货币政策就不好使了，还有对就业市场的看法不一样，有人觉得好，有人觉得差，这 直接影响降息的决定，以及对于降息这个工具的理解，觉得降息到底是好是坏，有没有副作用，每个人 看法都不一样啊。 美国经济现在有点意思，通货膨胀在那杵着，劳动力市场也没个消停，美联储之前猛加息，现在内部意 见可大了，你说这接下来该咋办，谁也说不准啊。 降息，现在就是个烫手山芋，有人说通胀差不多了，劳动力市场看着也不结实，得降息，赶紧的，要不 然经济就完了，还说应该快点降、猛点降，可是吧 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese residents' savings are expected to increasingly flow into financial investments, particularly into high-quality projects that can generate stable cash flows, aligning with national strategic directions [2] Group 1: Investment Trends - High-quality projects in new infrastructure, consumption infrastructure, and new urbanization are seen as attractive assets due to their alignment with technological innovation and high-quality development [2] - The external environment is providing support for Chinese asset prices, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - There is still room for interest rate cuts in China, although a significant reduction is not anticipated in the short term [2] - The focus will remain on proactive fiscal policies complemented by moderately loose monetary policies in the near future [2]

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, is advocating for a significant interest rate cut, proposing a reduction of 50 basis points instead of the 25 basis points decided in the recent Federal Reserve meeting [3] - Milan argues that the current policy interest rate is excessively restrictive, posing a risk to the economy and potentially leading to a collapse in the labor market [3] - He suggests a cumulative interest rate cut of 200 basis points over the next few meetings, emphasizing that there is no substantial evidence that tariffs will reignite inflation [3] Group 2 - Current gold futures are trading around 855.56 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.05%, and have fluctuated between a high of 858.80 yuan and a low of 850.74 yuan [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 860 yuan and 880 yuan per gram, while important support levels are between 824 yuan and 850 yuan per gram [3]

OECD还指出，尽管二十国集团整体通胀率今年将放缓至3.4%，明年降至2.9%，但部分国家的通胀放缓 似乎陷入停滞。 反对党保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺克表示，经合组织报告"是对斯塔默软弱的经济管理的严厉评判"。英国 央行行长贝利在本月央行会议后致里夫斯的信中指责政府助长了近期通胀上升。贝利表示，控制劳动力 成本上升的努力"似乎被延迟"，原因是去年10月预算中规定的雇主国民保险缴款增加250亿英镑以及最 低工资大幅提高。 OECD报告表示，英美家庭通胀预期仍处于"历史高位"，工资增速持续快于官方通胀目标。11月增税前 景叠加贸易成本上升和持续政策不确定性，将拖累需求。该组织预测英国央行明年还将两次降息，使借 贷成本降至3.5%，这将是2023年初以来最低水平。 OECD数据还显示，英国通胀率2026年将放缓至2.7%，在七国集团中仅次于美国位居第二。根据 Consensus Economics汇编的数据，OECD的通胀预测与经济学家对2025年3.4%和2026年2.6%的预期基本 一致。 英《金融时报》9月23日消息，经合组织（OECD）周二预测，英国2025年通胀率预计为3.5%，高于去 年的2.5%，且到20 ...

Group 1 - Trump urges Turkey to stop purchasing Russian oil, indicating openness to reconsider Turkey's F-35 aircraft request [4][6] - This marks Trump's latest pressure on partner countries to reduce energy purchases from Russia amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [6] Group 2 - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggests the U.S. central bank should abandon using the federal funds rate as a benchmark for monetary policy [8] - Logan argues that the federal funds rate target is outdated and that the connection between the interbank market and overnight money market is weak [8] Group 3 - Google may face a second antitrust fine from the EU related to allegations of favoring its own vertical search services over competitors [10] - The potential fine is linked to accusations made in March regarding Google's search result bias [10] Group 4 - Amazon agrees to pay $2.5 billion to settle allegations of deceiving users into paying for Prime membership [12] - The lawsuit was initiated by the Federal Trade Commission in June 2023, claiming Amazon misled millions of customers [12] Group 5 - U.S. political parties leverage government shutdown for political gain, raising concerns about potential job losses for federal employees [14][15] - Trump blames Democrats for the shutdown, claiming they demand unreasonable conditions in spending proposals [15] Group 6 - Fed Governor Bowman states that the labor market is "fragile," suggesting the need for further interest rate cuts [17] - Bowman emphasizes that inflation is close to the Fed's target, but the weakening labor market necessitates decisive action [17]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a significant decline initially but managed to recover most of the losses by the end of the trading session [3] - Concerns over high valuations overshadowed positive economic data, with the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio reaching 22.9, a level only surpassed during the dot-com bubble and the summer of 2020 [4] - The US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 were 218,000, lower than economists' expectations of 235,000, indicating a resilient labor market [4] Economic Data - The annualized GDP growth rate for Q2 was revised up to 3.8%, exceeding the previous estimate of 3.3%, while Q1 showed actual contraction [4] - Analysts suggest that strong GDP data may not alter the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, as it is considered a lagging indicator [5] - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran expressed concerns about the potential economic damage if rate cuts are not implemented more swiftly [5] Intel's Performance - Intel's stock surged over 7% following news of potential investment discussions with Apple to strengthen its business foundation [6] - Recent investments in Intel include a $5 billion commitment from Nvidia and a $2 billion investment from SoftBank, indicating a trend of external funding for the company [6] - Despite these developments, Intel faces significant challenges, including a loss of technological leadership and market share to competitors like AMD [7] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks saw a rise, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.62%, driven by strong performances from electric vehicle manufacturers like NIO and Xpeng, both of which rose over 5% [7]

展望未来，经济学家预计，2026年经济仅会温和提速，部分因素包括特朗普税改政策及相对较低的利率 环境，但未来几年美国经济增速仍普遍低于2%。 通胀方面，修正后的数据显示，美联储密切关注的核心个人消费支出价格指数(PCE，剔除食品和能源) 在2024年全年上涨速度加快，第二季度已升至2.6%。经济学家预测，周五将公布的8月份PCE数据将显 示该指标同比涨幅接近3%，这可能限制美联储未来几个月的降息空间。 周四同步发布的8月份经济指标显示，商业设备订单强劲增长，商品贸易逆差收窄幅度超出预期，同时 首次申请失业救济人数降至7月中旬以来的最低水平。 从季度数据看，最新GDP修正值印证了美国经济在第二季度出现反弹——此前一季度曾因企业为规避特 朗普政府加征关税而大规模进口囤货，导致进口激增。目前第三季度经济表现稳健，近期报告显示消费 者支出与企业设备投资均呈现强劲态势。 在数据发布前，亚特兰大联邦储备银行的GDPNow模型曾预测第三季度经济增速为3.3%，但经济学家 对第四季度增长前景持谨慎态度，认为就业市场疲软可能抑制消费者支出。 （原标题：美国二季度GDP创近两年最快增速3.8% 消费支出成核心动力） 智通财经AP ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for immediate and significant interest rate cuts to prevent economic damage, arguing that the current policy rate of 4% to 4.25% is overly restrictive compared to his estimated neutral rate [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan believes that the Federal Reserve should accelerate policy adjustments rather than proceed slowly, as a tight monetary policy makes the economy more vulnerable to downturns [1] - The Federal Reserve recently voted to lower rates by 25 basis points, marking the first cut of 2025, but Milan opposed this decision, favoring a 50 basis point cut instead [1] - Milan suggests that multiple 50 basis point cuts could quickly achieve the neutral rate, allowing for more cautious adjustments thereafter [2] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Several policymakers, including Fed Chair Powell, are cautious about rate cuts due to concerns that tariffs from the Trump administration may continue to drive inflation higher [1] - Powell indicated that the risks of rising inflation, combined with signs of weakness in the labor market, will pose challenges for the Fed's decision-making in the coming months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Michelle Bowman, emphasizes that waiting to see the results of policy changes before lowering interest rates may be too late [1] Group 1 - The statement suggests a proactive approach to interest rate adjustments rather than a reactive one [1] - The implication is that timely decisions are crucial for effective monetary policy [1] - The commentary reflects ongoing discussions about the timing and impact of interest rate changes in the current economic environment [1]