宏观动态报告 关税冲击下的出口韧性 4 月进出口数据解读 2025年5月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 网: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 风险提示:外需走弱的风险;国内经济下行的风险;贸易摩擦加剧的风险。 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 集成电路和汽车出口修复上行:(1)4月份机电、高技术和劳动密集型产品 ● 出口增速均有不同程度回落,其中机电产品出口增速 10.1%(前值 13.4%), 高新技术产品出口增速 6.5%(前值 7.3%)，劳动密集型产品出口增速转负至 -1.7%（前值 9.1%）；（2）集成电路 20.2%（前值 7.9%）和汽车包括底盘 4.4%(前值 1.7%)出口增速均有不同程度上行;通用机械设备 17%(前值 ...

| 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/09 | P T A | POY 1 | 石脑油 | PX CFR | PTA内盘现 | 石脑油裂 | PTA加 | PTA平衡 | PTA负 | 仓单+有 | 日期 | 原油 | 50D/4 | PX加工差 | 聚酯毛利 | TA基差 产销 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日本 | 台湾 | 货 | 解 ...

国际航运巨头发出警告。 当地时间5月8日，作为全球贸易的晴雨表，国际航运巨头马士基在披露财报的同时，对特朗普政府的关税冲击 发出警告。马士基表示，由于客户对关税形势采取观望态度，4月中美集装箱市场的运量双向下降了30%— 40%。 与此同时，美国劳工统计局最新公布的数据也拉响了警报。其中显示，美国第一季度劳动生产率折合成年率下 降0.8%，这是近三年来首次下降；非农单位劳动力成本初值上升5.7%，为一年来最大增幅。 另外，根据高盛的最新预测，美国核心通胀"即将起飞"，直到2026年6月才会停止加速。今年圣诞节前美国通 胀率或将达到4%，其中商品价格通胀率或将飙升至6%—8%。 暴跌超3 0% 当地时间5月8日，马士基公布了最新财报，其中显示，今年一季度，公司实现营收133亿美元，增长7.8%；息 税前利润从去年同期的1.77亿美元升至12.53亿美元。 马士基警告称，今年剩余时间内的全球集装箱需求前景仍高度不确定，这受到贸易政策的快速变化，以及美国 日益增长的衰退风险影响。 鉴于宏观经济和地缘政治不确定性加剧，马士基将2025年全球集装箱市场的增长预期下调至-1%至4%，此前的 预期为增长4%。 马士基同时预 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, focusing on the impacts of tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's policies. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact**: The average tariff level in the U.S. has risen to approximately **24%**, reminiscent of the 1910s, significantly pressuring the economy. This increase in tariffs is expected to raise inflation by **1.5% to 2%**, with potential peaks at **2.5%** [1][2][8] - **Economic Transition**: The U.S. economy is anticipated to transition from **stagflation to recession** within the next year. Initially, inflation and economic growth may strengthen, but increasing downward pressure is expected to dominate later [1][5] - **Financial System Resilience**: The overall U.S. financial system is robust enough to absorb tariff shocks, but there are concerns regarding the **private equity market** and **insurance companies' cross-border positions**, which may pose risks due to low transparency and potential forced asset sales [1][4] - **Debt Market Risks**: The peak of corporate debt maturities in **2026** could reveal significant risks if credit spreads remain high, indicating potential financial stress [3][12] - **Market Dynamics**: The U.S. stock market is currently in a **W-shaped** recovery phase, but is expected to face downward pressure due to earnings challenges. Conversely, gold is in an **M-shaped** pattern, with its future performance hinging on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][6][7] Additional Important Insights - **Labor Market Resilience**: Despite a resilient labor market, if the unemployment rate rises to around **5%**, it could signal a substantial recession. A rise to **4.5%** may only indicate recession fears rather than an actual recession [3][11] - **Global Fund Reallocation**: There is a gradual shift in global fund allocation from **overweighting dollar assets** to a more balanced approach, influenced by the recent volatility in U.S. debt, stocks, and currency [3][13][14] - **Manufacturing Sector Performance**: Following the implementation of tariffs on China, the U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped from approximately **60** to around **48**, reflecting the economic impact of trade policies [15] - **Future Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts will likely depend more on market performance than on economic data, with potential cuts being considered in upcoming meetings [17] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current economic landscape, potential risks, and future outlook for the U.S. economy.

Core Viewpoint - Toyota's operating profit is expected to decline by 21% in the fiscal year 2026 due to the dual pressures of U.S. tariffs and yen appreciation, impacting demand for its hybrid vehicles [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending March 2026, Toyota forecasts an operating profit of 3.8 trillion yen (approximately 174.6 billion RMB), which is significantly lower than the analyst expectation of 4.7 trillion yen (approximately 234.4 billion RMB) [1] - The operating profit for the recently concluded fiscal year 2025 was 4.8 trillion yen (approximately 239.5 billion RMB), down from a record high of 5.35 trillion yen (approximately 266.9 billion RMB) in fiscal year 2024 [1] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by President Trump have adversely affected Toyota, leading to reduced exports to the U.S. and a general increase in prices that may lower consumer confidence [1] - Recent policy changes, including the exemption of separate tariffs on imported aluminum and steel, provide some relief to the Japanese automotive industry [2] Group 3: Operational Strategy - Despite the complexities introduced by policy changes, Toyota remains committed to its operational strategy in the U.S. [3] - Expanding production in the U.S. could lead to high labor and supply chain costs for Toyota [3] - In China, although Toyota's sales decline is less severe compared to other Japanese manufacturers, it still faces intense competition from numerous local brands [3]

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间5月8日，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25% - 4.5%，符合市场预期，这也是 美联储连续第三次货币政策会议决定暂停行动，此次利率决议得到FOMC成员一致同意。资产负债表方面，委员会维持缩表节奏不变，美国国债每月赎回上 限为50亿美元、机构债务和MBS每月赎回上限为350亿美元。美联储声明指出，经济前景不确定性"进一步"增加，强调通胀和失业风险双双上升，新增语 句"失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已增加"，同时重申最近指标显示经济活动仍稳健扩张，指出净出口波动已影响数据。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后表示，高关税可能导致通胀和失业率上升，目前判断通胀和失业的风险哪种更严重为时过早；当前货币政策有适度限制性，潜在的 通胀前景良好，观望是很明确的决定；无法先发制人，因为不知道如何应对，直到看到更多数据为止；关税冲击尚未到来，政策对通胀影响可能短暂也可能 更持久；至少未来一年，美联储的通胀和就业目标不会取得进展；谈判可能实质性改变贸易局势，也可能不会。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪认为，该次会议正式明确了关税冲击下，滞涨压力是美联储面临的关键挑战，后 ...

Macro Economic Overview - To counter the impact of tariffs, China has introduced a comprehensive monetary policy package aimed at boosting the stock and real estate markets. This policy will moderately ease liquidity and credit supply, encouraging positive market sentiment, although it cannot fully offset the economic impact of tariffs [2] - The report anticipates that the tariff impacts could reduce China's GDP and CPI growth rates by 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. It is expected that GDP growth will slow from 5.4% in Q1 2025 to 4.5% in Q2, with a slight rebound to 4.7% in the second half of the year, resulting in an annual growth rate of 4.8% [5] Industry Insights - In the equipment manufacturing sector, global machinery manufacturers are assessing the impact of US tariffs, with most expecting effects to become apparent starting in Q3. Companies like Komatsu are predicted to face significant challenges due to these tariffs [5] - The Chinese insurance industry is set to see an acceleration of long-term investments as regulatory bodies announced a series of financial policies. This includes expanding the scope of long-term investment trials and adjusting risk factors for stock investments, potentially injecting over 150 billion yuan into the market [5] Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 23.00, representing a 37% upside potential [6] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, indicating a 46% upside [6] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 40.61, suggesting a 24% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 157.00, reflecting a 27% upside potential [6] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 625.00, indicating a 28% upside [6]

由于关税和美国港口费用的不确定性扰乱了贸易，5月7日美股早盘，农作物贸易商安德森公司（Andersons Inc.）股价一度下跌11%，创2022年10月以来的最低水平。该公司第一季度营收低于预期。由于美国总统特 朗普威胁要征收关税和税款，进口商推迟了对美国谷物和油籽的采购。尽管部分国家已暂停征收关税，大 多数散装农产品货物也将免征港口费用，但这些变化仍然对这家总部位于俄亥俄州的公司造成了冲击。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nintendo's stock price has been rising, reaching a market capitalization of over $100 billion, making it the seventh largest company in Japan, driven by the upcoming launch of Switch 2 and industry cycle influences [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nintendo's market capitalization has surpassed $100 billion, making it the seventh largest company in Japan, following Fast Retailing [1]. - The pre-orders for Switch 2 have shown strong market potential, with 2.2 million pre-order applications in Japan [1]. - The Switch 2 is expected to launch with 6 to 8 million units available, marking one of the largest launches in gaming history [2]. Group 2: Product Features and Pricing - Switch 2 features significant upgrades, including a larger screen (7.9 inches), improved resolution (1080P), and support for 4K output [1][2]. - The pricing for Switch 2 has increased, with the Hong Kong version priced at 3,450 HKD (approximately 3,100 RMB) and the US version at $449.99 (approximately 3,250 RMB), representing a 50% increase from the original Switch [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Nintendo's financial results show a decline in operating income and sales, with total sales revenue of 956.2 billion JPY, down 31.4% year-on-year, and net profit of 237.1 billion JPY, down 41.9% [2]. - Hardware sales for the Switch have decreased by 30.6% year-on-year, with game sales down 24.4% to 123.98 million units [2]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Dynamics - The increase in pricing for Switch 2 and its games has sparked discussions about affordability, with game prices rising to between $69.99 and $79.99 [3]. - The new tariffs imposed by the US government on imports from China and Vietnam could further increase the price of Switch 2 in the US market, potentially affecting its competitiveness during the holiday shopping season [3]. - Nintendo has diversified its production locations to reduce reliance on China, with significant production now occurring in Vietnam [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in May, the overall de - stocking of PX and PTA continues, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to weaken as polyester reduces its load. PTA processing fees have fully recovered, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding PXN at low prices and the opportunity of shrinking PTA processing fees at high prices in the long - term [2]. - For MEG, the marginal situation is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited due to hidden inventories. The far - month supply - demand mainly focuses on the changes in imports and ethane - based production benefits under the influence of subsequent tariffs [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation in the future, but the futures processing fee is not high, and the price is supported by the low spread between raw and recycled materials [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are the relatively low absolute level of national explicit inventory, the slight rebound of Thai cup - lump rubber price, and the state of stockpiling. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of crude oil decreased by $0.9, the price of PTA internal - market spot remained unchanged, the PTA processing difference decreased by 58, and the polyester gross profit increased by 73 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance, Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton device was under maintenance, and Taihua's 1.2 million - ton device was restarted [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: PX and PTA are expected to continue de - stocking in May, but the far - month supply - demand will weaken as polyester reduces its load [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the MEG internal - market price decreased by 26, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 26 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Shanghai Petrochemical's 380,000 - ton device was restarted, and Guizhou Qianxi's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The marginal situation is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited, and the far - month supply - demand depends on tariff - related factors [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: The daily change on May 6 showed that the short - fiber profit increased by 48, and the pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 15 [2]. - **Device Maintenance**: No device maintenance information was provided this week [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: There is still pressure for inventory accumulation, but the futures processing fee is not high, and it is supported by the low spread between raw and recycled materials [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot increased by 30, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 240 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The main contradictions are the low explicit inventory, the rebound of cup - lump rubber price, and the stockpiling situation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased by $56, the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 265, and the price of EPS (East China ordinary material) decreased by 175 [6]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at - 79, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 55 [6].