Core Insights - The Bank of England's preliminary employee analysis indicates that the direct impact of tariff shocks on global GDP may be smaller than previously anticipated in May [1] Group 1 - The analysis suggests a reassessment of the economic implications of tariffs on global GDP [1]

【白银期货行情表现】 6月19日，沪银主力暂报8915元/克，跌幅达0.85%，今日沪银主力开盘价9012元/克，截至目前最高9025 元/克，最低8885元/克。 【宏观消息】 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表讲话强调，伊朗绝不接受任何"强加的和平或战争"。绝不会对领土上遭受的 任何袭击"视而不见"，伊朗军队已经做好了充分的准备。以方犯下严重错误，将会受到"惩罚"。哈梅内 伊还表示，伊朗民族不会投降，任何"美国军事干预无疑都会带来无法弥补的损失"。 美联储6月议息会议：连续第四次维持利率不变，点阵图显示今年降息两次，但预计今年不降息的官员 人数升至7位，明年的降息预期被削减至1次。鲍威尔继续高呼不确定性，目前的经济情况适合观望。他 还预计未来几个月会有关税驱动的通胀上升。"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发文称，美联储此次维持利 率不变，为今年下半年降息留下了可能性。为了恢复去年开始的降息，美联储官员可能需要看到劳动力 市场走软，或者有更有力的证据表明，关税导致的价格上涨将相对温和。 美国至6月14日当周初请失业金人数24.5万人，预期24.5万人，前值由24.8万人修正为25万人。 【机构观点】 银河期货 ...

新华财经纽约6月18日电（记者刘亚南）随着市场消化美联储议息会议和伊朗与以色列冲突走向相关信 息，纽约股市三大股指18日小幅高开，早盘涨幅显著扩大，随后强势盘整，午后快速走低，尾盘窄幅盘 整，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不一。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌44.14点，收于42171.66点，跌幅为0.10%；标准 普尔500种股票指数下跌1.85点，收于5980.87点，跌幅为0.03%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨25.18点，收于 19546.27点，涨幅为0.13%。 美国劳工部当日早间发布的数据显示，美国上周首次申领失业救济的人数为24.5万，高于市场共识预期 的24.4万，但低于前一周修订后的25万。 摩根大通全球经济学家Nora Szentivanyi表示，美国5月经济数据强化了今年早些时候得到提振的经济活 动已经开始消退的信号。美国4月进口和5月汽车销售大幅下降的同时，工业生产和零售数据回落也超出 预期。与此同时，进口价格的继续上涨显示，即便对消费者的影响比此前预期缓慢，但关税对国内的冲 击正在展开。 美联储同时发布的经济预测摘要显示，美联储官员对今年联邦基金利率预测中值保持在3.9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy, indicating a significant decline in exports and a growing trade deficit, raising concerns about a potential technical recession in Japan. Group 1: Export and Trade Data - In May, Japan's exports fell by 1.7% year-on-year, marking the first decline in eight months, with exports to the U.S. down by 11.1% and to China down by 8.8% [1][5][6] - Japan recorded a trade deficit of 637.6 billion yen in May, continuing a trend of deficits for the second consecutive month [2][5] - The decline in exports was primarily driven by decreases in automotive, steel, and mineral fuel exports [5] Group 2: Economic Concerns - The drop in exports and the widening trade deficit have intensified fears of a second-quarter economic contraction, potentially leading to a technical recession [6] - Japan's economy had already shown signs of contraction in the first quarter, with a 0.2% year-on-year decline in GDP [11] - Domestic consumption remains weak due to inflation outpacing wage growth, further complicating economic recovery [6] Group 3: Tariff Implications - U.S. tariffs, including a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts and a 10% tariff on other Japanese goods, are exerting pressure on Japan's export-driven economy [7][11] - Japan's government is urgently seeking a trade agreement with the U.S. to avoid a potential increase in tariffs to 24% starting July 9 [8][11] Group 4: Central Bank Response - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy amid the uncertainty created by U.S. tariffs [9][10] - The central bank has kept its target interest rate at 0.5% and plans to continue its bond purchase reduction strategy until March 2026 [11][12] - Future policy decisions by the Bank of Japan will likely depend on inflation trends, global economic conditions, and U.S. Federal Reserve policies [12]

Group 1 - Mitsubishi Motors Corporation is raising the prices of certain models in the U.S. market by an average of 2.1% due to the impact of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on imported cars and parts [1] - The price increase will apply to gasoline versions of the Outlander, Outlander Sport, and Eclipse Cross models, effective for vehicles delivered after the price adjustment [1] - The Japanese automotive industry is facing a potential loss of $19 billion due to these tariffs, which could also affect the Japanese national economy [1] Group 2 - The automotive industry accounts for approximately 10% of Japan's GDP and one-third of Japan's exports to the U.S., making it a critical sector for the Japanese economy [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is under pressure to negotiate with Trump to reduce the 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts, but no trade agreement was reached during the G7 summit [2] - Several automakers are adjusting their strategies in response to the tariffs, with Honda delaying its $11 billion electric vehicle supply chain expansion in Canada and Subaru reassessing all investments [2]

Group 1 - The UK economy experienced a significant decline in April, with GDP falling by 0.3% month-on-month, the largest drop since October 2023, and worse than the expected decline of 0.1% [1] - Exports to the US saw a record monthly drop of £2 billion (approximately $2.7 billion), marking the largest decline since records began in 1997, attributed to the impact of newly implemented tariffs [1] - The decline in economic output was largely driven by a decrease in real estate and legal activities, contributing 0.2 percentage points to the overall GDP decline [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter, the UK GDP grew by 0.7%, surpassing growth in other G7 economies, prompting the Bank of England to raise its growth forecast for 2025 to 1% [2] - The Bank of England revised its 2026 growth forecast down to 1.25%, anticipating that tariffs will reduce UK economic output by 0.3% over the next three years [2] - April's consumer price index (CPI) rose significantly to 3.5%, the highest level since January 2024, driven by increases in energy, water, and broadband prices [2]

一、周三A股如期以涨幅开盘并站上3400点，看起来确实鼓舞人心，但是我们也不能只看表象，上一次是5月14日勉强站上了3400点，但结果只是昙花一 现，第二天就失守了3400点，直至昨天才重新又勉强站上了3400点，我估计这次较大可能仍将又失守3400点。 二、周三下午A股并未表现上行趋势，而是震荡小幅下行的走势，这或是站上3400点之后，A股没有了上行的动力，否则为什么没有激发更大的力量向上继 续走高呢，今天缩量至1.29万亿，与上一日1.45万亿的量能规模相比，缩量1600亿，站上3400点并未激起博反弹力量的跟进，反而使市场有一种见顶的可 能，今天较大可能将向下回落转跌。 三、美国CPI数据昨晚公布，数据低于预期，这使得市场预期美联储降息预期升温，预计美联储在9月前降息的可能性上升至75%，但国际地缘风险因素愈 演愈烈，老美关税事项或将重新掀起风暴，这对全球资本市场而言将是一个较大的冲击。 四、总体而言，周三A股虽然站上了3400点，但并未激发市场接盘力量的跟进，3400点或将是阶段性顶部，我分析判断今天A股将向下走低并失守3400点， 大家等开盘后看看是不是这样，我的观点具体表述如下，欢迎大家围观点评。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in export growth in May 2025 is attributed to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, revealing the impact of tariffs on exports. However, exports still show resilience despite the expected drop in the export central tendency [1][5]. Overall Summary - In May 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 4.8% (previously 8.1%), while import growth was -3.4% (previously -0.2%). Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% compared to April, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels [2]. Trade Balance - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025 [3]. Export Structure - By country, the export growth rates to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America saw significant declines, recording -34.5%, 14.8%, and 2.3% respectively. In contrast, exports to other regions increased to 11.8% (previously 10.4%). In terms of product structure, agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw a notable decline, while machinery and raw materials remained relatively stable. Notably, exports of integrated circuits and ships in the machinery sector continued to perform strongly, with a resurgence in automotive exports [4]. Divergent Interpretations of Export Data - Optimists argue that the strong performance in April (8.1%) despite high tariffs suggests a rebound in May following the tariff easing on May 14, predicting a significant export rebound in June. Conversely, pessimists believe that the resilience in April was due to preemptive exports before the tariff implementation, and the decline in May indicates a depletion of future orders. The article concludes that the decline in May's export growth is a result of the cooling of preemptive exports and the impact of tariffs, but previous preemptive and transshipment trade has not significantly depleted future orders. Looking ahead, short-term indicators suggest that June's export growth may be supported by the easing of tariffs, while a normalization of exports is expected, leading to a gradual decline in export momentum without a drastic drop [5].

金十数据6月5日讯，机构分析指出，加拿大4月份黯淡的贸易报告似乎在一定程度上削弱了加拿大央行 本周维持基准利率不变的理由。加拿大央行此前表示，其将政策利率维持在2.75%不变，部分原因是经 济有所放缓，但并未恶化。而加拿大4月份的贸易报告显示，该国贸易表现低迷，出口下降10.8%，至 近两年来的最低水平，贸易逆差扩大至创纪录的71.4亿加元。加拿大统计局指出，加元自2021年5月以 来最强劲的单月升值推动了出口数据的大幅下降。以美元计算，加拿大4月出口下降8.4%。对美出口下 降15.7%，可能反映了美国进口商为避免关税，在第一季度加速从加拿大供应商处下单的情况。 机构：关税冲击显现 加拿大央行维持利率不变理由受质疑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The belief that U.S. Treasury bonds are a safe haven is facing unprecedented challenges due to rising yields and concerns over fiscal deficits and debt levels [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - In late May, the yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surpassed the critical psychological level of 5.1%, leading to a significant sell-off in the long-term bond market [1]. - Fitch Ratings has warned that even if the U.S. fiscal deficit improves temporarily in 2025, it is expected to widen again, with debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach 120% by 2026, significantly higher than the median for AA-rated countries [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Current inflation is expected to remain around 4%, well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][3]. - The Fed is anticipated to only lower interest rates once in the fourth quarter of this year, maintaining a cautious stance despite a projected economic slowdown [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Business Sentiment - There is a noticeable decline in "soft data" related to business investment and hiring intentions, indicating weakening market sentiment [4]. - However, "hard data" such as unemployment claims and monthly employment reports do not yet show significant negative impacts on the labor market [4][5]. Group 4: Trade Uncertainty and Investment Outlook - Policy uncertainty has surged, affecting consumer and business spending decisions, with companies likely to delay investment decisions [5][6]. - The impact of trade uncertainties and inflation pressures is expected to suppress corporate willingness to initiate new projects, potentially leading to slower investment growth and reduced productivity in the medium term [5][6].