Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Lagarde, did not rule out the possibility of future interest rate hikes if trade uncertainties are resolved, indicating that easing trade tensions could alleviate uncertainty burdens on consumers and businesses, with future impacts yet to be revealed [1] Group 1 - Lagarde's response to the question about interest rate hikes suggests a cautious optimism regarding trade tensions [1] - The potential for interest rate increases is linked to the resolution of trade uncertainties, which could positively affect economic conditions [1] - The statement implies that the ECB is monitoring trade developments closely and their implications for monetary policy [1]

欧洲央行行长拉加德：不会排除转向考虑加息。 ...

凯投宏观：美欧关税协定对欧元区经济影响有限，欧央行货币政策或维持不变 三井住友银行：美日关税协议达成，潜在通胀改善或促使日本9月加息 荷兰国际集团：欧洲央行担忧欧元升值可能导致欧元走弱 【机构分析】 凯投宏观经济学家指出，即使欧盟与美国达成限制关税的贸易协定，其对欧元区经济的实际影响将是有 限的。虽然该协定能够避免贸易壁垒的破坏性升级，但相比欧洲央行基准预测所依据的经济假设，实际 效果会稍微不利一些。欧洲央行行长拉加德不太可能因此改变现有的政策立场。 Trinh Nguyen指出，菲律宾和日本与美国达成的关税协议给韩国和其他国家带来了敲定类似协议的压 力。亚洲经济体将需要适应一种新常态，即10%的关税被视为"新的零关税"。印尼和菲律宾以19%的关 税水平达成协议，为泰国和马来西亚等其他国家设定了较高的门槛。 星展银行策略师表示，由于日本自民党在参议院选举中的失利，存在增加民粹主义支出的可能性，这将 推升中长期日本国债的收益率。为了应对民众对于生活成本上升的担忧，日本央行可能需要在今年年底 前考虑加息。 （文章来源：新华财经） 三井住友银行经济学家Junya Takemoto指出，美国将日本商品的全面关税税率设 ...

Group 1 - The US and Japan have reached an agreement on tariff negotiations, reducing the US's "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan from 25% to 15%, while Japan will increase imports of US rice under the current "minimum access system" [1] - Japan has committed to invest $550 billion in the US, focusing on semiconductor design and manufacturing, natural gas, and new shipbuilding facilities [1] - The EU and the US are moving towards a trade agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate on most products, with EU officials pushing to include sectors like automobiles [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor indicated that the US-Japan trade agreement enhances the likelihood of Japan's economic performance aligning with the central bank's forecasts, although there is still "extremely high" uncertainty in the economy [1] - The US National Association of Realtors reported a 2.7% decline in June's existing home sales, reaching an annualized rate of 3.93 million units, the lowest in nine months [2] - The median price of existing homes increased by 2% year-over-year to $435,300 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, indicated that interest rates may be raised if the economic outlook is realized, highlighting the high level of uncertainty in both domestic and international economies [1] Group 1 - The current economic situation is at a critical juncture, necessitating preparedness for both upward and downward risks [1] - Policy adjustments are required to maximize the balance of risks in the economic landscape [1]

据报道，日本央行将在加息前关注贸易谈判的影响。日本央行下周可能维持基准 利率不变；日本央行 认为选举对利率立场影响不大。 (第一财经) ...

市场消息：日本央行将在加息前关注贸易谈判的影响。 ...

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, slightly below the expected 3.4%, and down from 3.7% in May, indicating a cooling inflation trend [1][2] - Energy price increases have slowed, contributing to the decline in the core CPI, while the core-core CPI, which excludes energy prices, rose by 3.4%, the fastest growth since January of the previous year [1][2] - The latest inflation data may prompt the Bank of Japan to continue its interest rate hike path, with expectations that the central bank will maintain the benchmark interest rate at its next policy meeting on July 31 [2][3] Group 2 - The rising prices of rice, which have doubled year-on-year, have drawn national attention and forced the government to take unprecedented measures, including utilizing emergency food reserves [2] - The increase in service prices, which rose by 1.5% year-on-year in June, indicates a broader inflationary trend, with Japan's inflation rate exceeding that of other G7 countries [3] - The persistent inflation in Japan is attributed to changing public expectations regarding price increases, breaking a long-standing deflationary pattern, and companies are more willing to pass on costs to consumers [3]

美联储的利率决断：在通胀与增长之间走钢丝 美联储内部对于货币政策的走向也存在明显分歧。6月会议纪要显示，美联储内部对降息的意见并不统一。特朗普任命的两位官员——美联储理事沃勒和鲍 曼均表示支持7月降息；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比，这位曾经的"鸽派"代表，如今也立场动摇，他坦言："最新一轮关税措施可能会引发新的通胀担忧，这可 能迫使美联储在获得更明确的信息前维持观望态度。"他同时警告，反复无常的政策给价格走势带来了不确定性。 美联储面临的挑战远不止经济数据本身。特朗普公开批评美联储利率"至少偏高3个百分点"，并声称利率每高一个百分点，每年就会给美国增加3600亿美元 的再融资成本。更令人担忧的是，特朗普甚至曾暗示可能解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，尽管他随后否认了这一计划。财政部长贝森特在回应鲍威尔可能辞职的传 闻时表示："若前美联储主席继续留任理事会，对市场而言可能会非常混乱。"这番话被解读为对鲍威尔职位的隐晦施压，美联储的独立性正面临严峻考验。 在总统公开施压、高层人事动荡的阴影下，市场担忧政治因素可能进一步干扰美联储的政策判断。 这出"悬念剧"的导火索是7月17日发布的美联储《褐皮书》（Beige Book）。这份被誉 ...

Market Overview - The recent fluctuations in the precious metals market have been significant, with gold prices experiencing volatility influenced by the U.S. CPI data [1][3] - The U.S. June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since February, while core CPI increased by 2.9% [3][4] - The market is currently facing a "inflation rebound + pressure on gold and silver" scenario, testing investors' risk management capabilities [3] Economic Indicators - The June CPI data showed a structural divergence, with energy prices rising by 0.9% month-on-month, while prices for core items like used cars and airline tickets fell [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy faces a dual challenge of managing delayed inflation pressures from tariffs and preventing economic slowdown risks [3][4] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September remain high, with a 62% probability, despite the Fed's current stance on interest rates [4] Investment Strategies - In the current complex market environment, traditional investment strategies are under pressure, particularly for gold, which faces upward pressure on real interest rates despite long-term support from geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [4][6] - Investors are advised to adopt a "barbell strategy," allocating 30% to physical gold for inflation hedging while utilizing platforms like Jinsheng Precious Metals for capturing cross-market opportunities [5][6] - Jinsheng Precious Metals offers advantages such as low trading costs, rapid transaction execution, and robust fund security measures, enhancing the investment experience [5][6] Company Positioning - Jinsheng Precious Metals, as an AA-class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, leverages three core advantages: cost optimization, rapid trading experience, and fund safety [5][6] - The company emphasizes a low-cost, high-transparency, and strong protection trading ecosystem, aligning with the evolving landscape of precious metal investments [6]