Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements in each sector, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings. The overall market is influenced by factors such as policies, international trade, and seasonal patterns, with different sectors showing distinct characteristics and outlooks [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance Index Futures - **Macro News**: The US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on Sino - US trade. Northern Rare Earth is optimistic about future rare earth prices. In June, the retail sales of national passenger cars reached 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. There is no exact news about silicon material storage from Tongwei Co., Ltd [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards liquidity. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold declined, while COMEX silver rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.42%, and the US dollar index is 97.55 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak US inflation and economic data enhance the expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper declined, and Shanghai copper closed at 80,030 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. There are uncertainties in US copper tariff policies [10]. - **Price Forecast**: Shanghai copper is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper between 9,400 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.53%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the long - position sentiment is uncertain. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and consolidate, with Shanghai aluminum trading between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index declined. Zinc ore supply is high, and zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. Zinc prices are under pressure [13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index declined slightly. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stabilized. Lead prices are expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices were weak. The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand and the cost of nickel iron. It is recommended to short nickel on rallies, with Shanghai nickel trading between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel between 14,500 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that domestic tin prices will oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin prices between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The upward space of lithium prices is limited without macro - level positive factors. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 trading between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract declined. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is mainly affected by aluminum prices. The price has strong resistance above [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a weak and oscillating trend. The policy of "anti - involution and capacity reduction" has an impact on the market, but the specific implementation is uncertain. Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel will suppress exports [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand also declined. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price of glass was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short - selling positions should be avoided [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon closed slightly higher, and ferrosilicon closed slightly lower. The fundamentals of the two products are weak, but the market is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: Industrial silicon futures rose. The supply of industrial silicon is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and hedging positions can be operated when there is a profit [32][33]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded. The market has priced in the small - scale storage expectation. The bullish and bearish views are different. The tire开工 rate is neutral, and the inventory is increasing [35][36][37]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, a neutral view in the short term, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. There is uncertainty in geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of methanol declined. The upstream maintenance increased, and the demand decreased. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The short - term supply decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price has support below and is recommended to be short - term long on dips [42]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene was stable, and the futures price declined. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly [43][44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose slightly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [45][46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract declined. The supply and demand are both weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was stable. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. In the third quarter, it is expected to de - stock. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49][50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE declined. Affected by the OPEC+ production increase, the cost decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price was slightly stronger. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the second - fattening space is still available. The short - term long - position may have space, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs mostly declined. The supply is stable, and the demand is cautious. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and the mid - term price may be affected by supply and premium [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices also decreased. The supply of soybeans and protein is in excess. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased, and domestic palm oil prices strengthened. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are also factors suppressing the upward space. The market is expected to oscillate [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar exports increased in June, and the domestic import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to continue to decline [61]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs". The basis between futures and spot is strengthening, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [62].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has declined, and the prices of finished products are showing a weak and volatile trend. The policy suggestion of "anti-involution and capacity reduction" has boosted market sentiment and driven short - term steel price increases, but the implementation of relevant policies remains to be verified. The implementation of Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel may suppress exports, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the Politburo meeting in late July [3]. - Iron ore prices are in a wide - range volatile state in the short term, affected by factors such as seasonal changes in supply, iron water production decline, and macro expectations [6]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are fundamentally bearish, but in the short term, prices are more influenced by emotions and expectations. It is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines and hedging positions look for opportunities to operate when the market rallies [9][10]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - surplus and demand - deficient situation. The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation, and the trading focus in July will be on macro and policy expectations [15]. - For glass, policy expectations have a strong impact on prices, and short positions should avoid and wait. For纯碱, the supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The number of registered warrants was 44,905 tons, a net increase of 8,464 tons. The position of the main contract was 2.168547 million lots, a net decrease of 28,783 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3191 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The number of registered warrants was 64,587 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.593691 million lots, a net increase of 8,136 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The export pressure has increased due to Vietnam's anti - dumping policy. For rebar, both apparent supply and demand have increased, but the inventory clearance speed has slowed down. For hot - rolled coils, production has slightly increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has slightly accumulated [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 733.00 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+2.00), with a position change of +7312 lots to 655,200 lots. The weighted position was 1.0841 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 34.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.48% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The latest iron ore shipments have decreased seasonally, and the daily average pig iron production has decreased. The terminal demand is neutral, and the port inventory has changed little. The price is in a wide - range volatile state in the short term [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On July 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.07% at 5650 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 120 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF509) closed down 0.26% at 5350 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamental situation is bearish, but in the short term, prices are affected by emotions and expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and look for hedging opportunities when the market rallies [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 8, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 2.11% at 8215 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 8500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 285 yuan/ton over the futures. The 421 market price was 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 35 yuan/ton over the futures [13]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in a supply - surplus and demand - deficient situation. The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation, and the trading focus in July will be on macro and policy expectations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: For glass, the spot price in Shahe was 1151 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China was 1030 yuan, unchanged. As of July 3, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes (-0.19%) from the previous period and an increase of 10.57% year - on - year. For soda ash, the spot price was 1168 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8481 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons (2.13%) from last Thursday [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For glass, policy expectations have a strong impact on prices, and short positions should avoid and wait. For soda ash, the supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment has been fluctuating recently. Fundamentally, the supply - demand pressure of coking coal has slightly eased, and the price volatility has intensified. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Content Macro - economic and Policy Impact - The US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period from July 9 to August 1. He also threatened 14 countries with new tariff rates, which affected the market to run weakly. The end of the safety production month and the completion of the one - month inspection by the supervision team led to the resumption of production in some regional coal mines, cooling the bullish market sentiment. The meeting last Tuesday proposed anti - involution and capacity reduction, which, although mainly targeting the electric vehicle and photovoltaic industries, also disturbed the coal market sentiment due to the over - supply in the coal market, intensifying the price volatility of coking coal. [3] Fundamental Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, coal mines in major production areas in Shanxi such as Changzhi and Linfen resumed production intensively, with a slight increase in output. However, there were still shortages in some phases and coal types. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. The daily average clean coal output was 739,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 27,000 tons. [4] - **Demand**: Recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated the replenishment of raw materials. The available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have increased from a low level. Coupled with the previous production cuts in coal mines, the inventory pressure of coking coal at the mine end has been relieved. The coking clean coal inventory at the mine end was 4.092 million tons, with a cumulative decrease of 896,000 tons in the past two weeks and a year - on - year increase of 1.26 million tons. [4] - **Import**: Recently, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has remained at a relatively low level, and the port inventory has steadily decreased. From July 11th to 15th, the port will be temporarily closed due to the Mongolian Naadam Festival. [4]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The global economic and political situation is complex, with factors such as geopolitical risks, trade policies, and central bank policies influencing the financial and commodity markets. - In the stock index market, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" at low prices. - In the bond market, it is advisable to enter the market at low prices as interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. - In the precious metals market, a long - term bullish view on silver is maintained due to the expected easing of the Fed's policy. - In the metal market, different metals have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors. - In the energy and chemical market, most products are in a state of complex supply - demand and price fluctuations, and different trading strategies are recommended for different products. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Macro News**: Trump threatens to impose a 10% new tariff on BRICS countries; Changxin Storage starts the listing guidance; Guojin Securities' Hong Kong subsidiary prepares to apply for virtual asset trading licenses; the eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index reaches a new high [2]. - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH futures contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East decline, and the market risk appetite recovers. Domestically, economic data in May is stable, and policies are introduced to support the market. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" at low prices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures long at low prices, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined to varying degrees [5]. - **News**: China's foreign exchange reserves increased in June; Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries supporting BRICS' anti - US policies [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the economic data and policy support, it is expected that interest rates will decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market at low prices [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold rose 0.36%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.19%. COMEX gold rose 0.08%, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The US fiscal and monetary policies are the core drivers of precious metal prices. It is expected that the Fed will ease its policy in the second half of the year, and a long - term bullish view on silver is maintained [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper fell 0.69%, and Shanghai copper closed at 79390 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory increased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose. In China, social inventory increased, and the spot premium changed. The copper price is under pressure of phased shock adjustment [10]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum fell 1.31%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20490 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase in July, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [11]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index fell 1.41%, and LME zinc fell 50 to 2695.5 dollars/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore supply is high, and the zinc price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and the decline of the long - short structure [12][13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index fell 0.48%, and LME lead fell 19 to 2043.5 dollars/ton. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The lead price is relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai nickel fell 1.41%, and LME nickel fell 0.85%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. The price difference between refined nickel and nickel iron is high, and it is recommended to go short at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai tin fell 1.40%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, and the terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the LC2509 contract rose 0.60%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The lithium price has limited upward space, and it is recommended to pay attention to demand expectations and market atmosphere [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose 0.15%. - **Industry Situation**: The alumina production capacity is over - supplied. It is recommended to short at high prices, and pay attention to policy and production reduction risks [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless steel main contract fell 0.71%. - **Industry Situation**: It is in the consumption off - season, and the supply - demand excess pattern is difficult to reverse. The spot market is expected to be weak [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.78%. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are weak, and the price is affected by the aluminum price. The upper resistance is large [20][21]. Black Construction Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. - **Industry Situation**: The export is under pressure due to the anti - dumping policy. The supply - demand situation of rebar and hot - rolled coil is different, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies, demand, and cost [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron ore main contract fell 0.20%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply and demand of iron ore are affected by multiple factors. The price is in a wide - range shock, and it is necessary to control risks [25][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The glass price rebounded, and the soda ash price was stable. - **Industry Situation**: Glass is affected by policies, and it is recommended to avoid short - selling. Soda ash has large inventory pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon fell 0.04%, and ferrosilicon was flat. - **Industry Situation**: The industry is over - supplied, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and short at high prices for hedging positions [29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial silicon main contract rose 0.81%. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is over - supplied, and demand is insufficient. The price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policies [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU adjusted downward. - **Industry Situation**: The tire industry has a neutral start - up rate, and the inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to be long - term bullish in the second half of the year and neutral in the short - term [39][40]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all declined. - **Industry Situation**: The geopolitical risk is uncertain, and the market is in a long - short game. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 7 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract rose 13 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities at low prices [45]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, and the futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: The cost is sufficient, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate downward [46]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 14 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [48][49]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both expected to decline, and it is recommended to short at high prices [50]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was flat. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is expected to decrease in July, and demand is slightly under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [51]. Para - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 12 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: The overhaul season is over, and it is expected to destock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: The price is expected to fluctuate due to inventory and demand factors [53]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The pig price may stop falling and rise slightly. The short - term long - position has space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply and hedging pressure [56]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The national egg price mostly declined. - **Industry Situation**: The egg price may be stable in some areas and decline in others. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term [57][58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans fell 2.75%, and domestic soybean meal spot fell. - **Industry Situation**: The soybean import cost is stable, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to trade policies [59][60]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Domestic oils and fats fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a shock [62][63]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated, and the spot price declined. - **Industry Situation**: Brazilian sugar exports increased, and the domestic sugar price may continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [65].

黑色建材日报 2025-07-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3061 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.35%）。当日注册仓单 36441 吨, 环比增加 7273 吨。主力合约持仓量为 219.733 万手，环比减少 41257 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3191 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 10 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.5555 万手，环比增 ...

| 产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 周敏波 | 20010559 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月7日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | 其差 | 品种 | 现值 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 前值 | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3170 | 3150 | 20 | 77 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3160 | 11 | 10 | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 137 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3098 | 300dd | -1 | 72 | | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3072 | 3076 | -4 | ರಿ8 | 螺纹钢01合约 | 77 | 3093 | 3090 | 3 | | | | 元/吨 | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3250 | 0 | 40 | | | | ...

晨报 煤焦 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 7 日 逻辑：上周，安全生产月结束，叠加督导组完成为期一个月的进驻巡 视，部分区域煤矿逐步复产，影响市场多头情绪降温，但周二会议提出反 内卷和去产能，虽然主要针对的产业是电动汽车和光伏，但因煤炭市场供 给较为过剩，再次对市场情绪形成扰动，促使煤焦价格震荡加剧。后续关 注具体政策措施的落地。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：供需压力稍有缓解 盘面震荡加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要 ...

钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-07-07 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3072 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 4 元/吨（-0.13%）。当日注册仓单 29168 吨, 环比增加 2095 吨。主力合约持仓量为 223.85 万手，环比增加 1338 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3201 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 7 元/吨（-0.21%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 1491 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.08 万手，环比减少 1 ...

Group 1: Price and Basis - The market sentiment has improved due to expectations of "capacity reduction and anti-involution," leading to a significant increase in futures prices and a weakening basis, with rebar futures trading at a premium to spot prices and hot-rolled coil futures at a discount [1] Group 2: Costs and Profits - On the cost side, the resumption of production in Shanxi's coking coal is expected to increase supply; iron ore shipments in June have surged, leading to a slight increase in iron ore inventory [1] - Current profit margins are shrinking, with the order of profitability from high to low being billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1] Group 3: Supply - Overall production is showing a slight decline, with June iron element production decreasing by 65,000 tons compared to May, including a drop of 45,000 tons in pig iron and 20,000 tons in scrap steel [1] - The production of the five major materials increased by 40,000 tons to 8.85 million tons, with rebar production up by 33,000 tons to 2.21 million tons and hot-rolled coil production up by 9,000 tons to 3.28 million tons [1] Group 4: Demand - The apparent demand for the five major materials has stabilized at a high level, with a slight increase of 54,000 tons to 8.85 million tons; however, the production of these materials has decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [2] - Domestic demand remains weak despite export growth, and inventory levels are at seasonal lows, with June steel supply and demand being roughly balanced [2] Group 5: Inventory - Current inventory levels are at seasonal lows, with a year-on-year decrease; the five major materials inventory decreased slightly by 1,000 tons to 13.4 million tons [2] - Rebar inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 5.45 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 3.45 million tons [2] Group 6: Market Outlook - The market sentiment has improved following the sixth Central Financial Committee's mention of "anti-involution," with expectations of supply-side reforms reminiscent of 2015-2018 [2] - Short-term steel supply and demand are balanced, with manageable inventory pressure; despite expectations of weaker demand in the second half of the year, supply contraction expectations are likely to dominate market sentiment [2] - Steel prices are expected to return to the previous fluctuation range, with hot-rolled coil futures projected to fluctuate between 3,150 and 3,300, and rebar between 3,050 and 3,150 [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of "capacity reduction," which is reflected in the decline of capital expenditure, the abandonment of existing projects, and the guidance for the survival of the fittest among existing enterprises. This capacity reduction is a slow variable that will elevate the long-term profitability capability [3] - The current strong performance of the A-share market suggests a growing focus on long-term positive factors, although the current fundamental expectations and profit-making effects are not yet at bull market levels. The company's market outlook remains unchanged, predicting that 2026-27 will be the core period of the bull market, with signs of index improvement starting in Q4 2025 [3] - The article notes that the capital expenditure of internet platforms may improve, serving as a driving force for stock prices in the domestic AI computing power industry chain. In the short term, the market is highly focused on sectors such as electric equipment, steel, and building materials [3] Group 2 - Service consumption is recovering, with a notable expansion in the price decline of white liquor and pork. Year-on-year growth rates have been continuously rising since the beginning of the year [6]