1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the report suggests a bullish approach. Internationally, good weather in most areas of Canadian rapeseed crops boosts the prospects of a bumper harvest, while China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect its exports and put pressure on prices. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample vegetable oil supply. However, the low operating rate of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The anti - dumping measures further weaken long - term supply. The market fluctuates greatly due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, the report recommends a bullish mindset and suggests paying attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The US 2025/26 soybean harvest area is expected to decrease, reducing production and ending stocks. Domestically, the high operating rate of oil mills and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the rapeseed meal market. But less rapeseed arrives in the near - term, and it's the peak season for aquaculture, increasing the demand for rapeseed meal. The anti - dumping measures also weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Bullish participation [7] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 9757 yuan/ton, an increase of 196 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 296,496 lots, an increase of 116,426 lots from last week [8][16]. - Market Outlook: International factors include good weather in Canada and China's anti - dumping measures. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, but low mill operating rates, fewer rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures ease supply pressure. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Bullish thinking, pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [10] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2546 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 448,610 lots, an increase of 12,773 lots from the previous week [11][16]. - Market Outlook: The US soybean harvest area decrease affects the market. Domestically, high mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory suppress the market, but less near - term rapeseed arrival, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures support it. However, the substitution of soybean meal weakens demand. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Open Interest**: Rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures both rose first and then fell. Rapeseed oil's total open interest increased by 116,426 lots to 296,496 lots, and rapeseed meal's increased by 12,773 lots to 448,610 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: For rapeseed oil, the top 20 net positions changed from net long (+21,321) to net short (-2,284). For rapeseed meal, it changed from net long (+22,737) to net short (-17,470) [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Rapeseed oil had 3,487 registered warehouse receipts, and rapeseed meal had 9,821 [27][28]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: In Jiangsu, the rapeseed oil spot price was 9,870 yuan/ton, and the basis was +113 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, the rapeseed meal price was 2,590 yuan/ton, and the basis was +44 yuan/ton [37][43]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +165 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level [49]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for the 01 contract was 3.83, and the average spot price ratio was 3.81 [52]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,223 yuan/ton, with relative volatility this week. The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 297 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 591 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 490 yuan/ton as of Thursday [62][68]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of August 8, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 200,000 tons, 570,000 tons, and 430,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 14, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was +863 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 32nd week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, with an operating rate of 15.17% [82]. - **Supply - Monthly Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [86]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 1.70% from last week. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67% and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [91]. - **Demand - Consumption and Production of Edible Vegetable Oil**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 4.769 million tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [95]. - **Demand - Weekly Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 9.53% from last week [99]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Weekly Inventory**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 32.61% from last week [103]. - **Supply - Import Volume**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.17% and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [107]. - **Demand - Monthly Feed Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons [111]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options fluctuated up and down. As of August 15, the implied volatility was 24.73%, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [116].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that canola oil futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 9715.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.99% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are subject to dumping, imposing a 75.8% deposit on Canadian companies, which introduces uncertainty in the trade policy between China and Canada [2] - Domestic canola oil inventory is at a seasonally high level, and changes in trade policies may lead traders to actively import canola oil from Russia and Dubai, potentially supplementing the supply from Canada [2] Group 2 - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the canola oil market is showing a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the recent suspension of a 24% tariff between China and the US [3] - The increase in domestic canola oil prices has further strengthened the vegetable oil sector, while the overall inventory of major oils, including soybean and palm oil, is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to wait for a new buying point after adjustments, with a long-term bullish outlook on oil fats [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall USDA August supply - demand report is bullish, but domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation suppresses the rapeseed meal market. However, factors such as low near - month rapeseed arrivals, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market. Despite the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, the market should be treated with a bullish mindset due to increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, international factors like rainfall in Canada and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed put pressure on prices, while domestic factors such as low oil mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The market should be mainly participated in with a bullish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10,064 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 650.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 31.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,136 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 228 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 112 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 282,665 lots, up 165,186 lots; rapeseed meal is 178,669 lots, down 27,971 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 14,214 lots, down 2,606 lots; rapeseed meal is 17,393 lots, up 15,262 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, down 3,487; rapeseed meal is 0, down 9,821 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,660 yuan/ton; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,090 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [2]. - Import cost price of rapeseed: 4,656.83 yuan/ton, down 194.33 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 3.73, up 0.15 [2]. - Basis of main contracts: Rapeseed oil is - 42 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan; rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 15 million tons, up 5 million tons [2]. - Weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 16.84%, up 0.32 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 455 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 11 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 54.92 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil: 3.47 million tons, up 1.77 million tons; rapeseed meal is 2.72 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2,937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering: 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.72 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.71 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal is 23.19%, up 2.17 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 13.9%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal is 18.19%, up 0.9 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 12.89%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 12, ICE rapeseed futures tumbled 4.5% after China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, but prices rebounded from the intraday low [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed changes in US soybean forecasts for the 2025/26 season, with lower harvest area and slightly higher yield, and lower production and ending stocks [2].

Core Viewpoints - The recent surge in canola oil futures, with a peak at 10,333.00 yuan and a current price of 10,085.00 yuan, indicates a strong market sentiment [1] - The preliminary anti-dumping investigation results on Canadian canola seeds will impose a 75.8% deposit on imports, significantly reducing profit margins and potentially decreasing import volumes [1] - The domestic canola oil market is expected to experience a strong upward trend due to limited alternative sources and high consumption during the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Longjiang Futures predicts that canola oil contracts for September and January will continue to show strong fluctuations in the short term [1] - The anti-dumping measures are likely to hinder the import of Canadian canola seeds post-August 14, leading to a further decline in import volumes already reduced year-on-year [1] - The current high inventory levels of domestic canola oil may accelerate depletion, positively impacting spot prices and basis [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Risks - The uncertainty surrounding the Canada-China trade relationship could lead to cautious purchasing behavior among domestic crushing plants, affecting future canola seed imports [2] - The high deposit rates may deter import traders, creating a risk of reduced canola seed supply in the domestic market [2] - The potential for increased imports from Australia and Russia may also influence canola oil prices in the future [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are being dumped, leading to the implementation of a temporary anti-dumping measure with a deposit rate of 75% [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce decided to impose a temporary anti-dumping measure on imported canola seeds from Canada, requiring a deposit of 75.8% from all Canadian companies [3]. - This measure is aimed at protecting the domestic canola industry from the impact of low-priced dumped products, as there is a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage to the domestic industry [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Reactions - The latest anti-dumping measure follows China's imposition of a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and oilseed meal since March, in response to Canada's announcement of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [3]. - Analysts suggest that this move will increase pressure on the Canadian government to address trade frictions with China [4]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has also initiated anti-dumping investigations on Canadian pea starch and has identified dumping in brominated butyl rubber, leading to further deposit requirements [4].

Core Viewpoint - The preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations against imported canola seeds from Canada will impose a deposit rate of 75.8% on all Canadian companies starting from August 14, 2025, which is expected to significantly tighten canola supply and increase prices in downstream products like canola oil and meal [1][2]. Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations against Canadian canola seeds, imposing a deposit rate of 75.8% on imports [1]. - As of March 2025, China has already imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, which, combined with the anti-dumping ruling, may lead to a substantial reduction in canola supply [1]. - Following the announcement, the canola futures market experienced a surge, with significant increases in canola oil and meal futures prices [1]. Group 2 - Domestic canola prices are expected to trend strongly due to tightening import expectations, with recent analysis indicating that the near-term warehouse issues for canola meal have eased, leading to accelerated inventory depletion in the futures market [2]. - The 75.8% deposit rate translates to a direct increase in import costs, which will have a considerable impact on the overall supply of canola products in the future [2]. - The anti-dumping tariffs are likely to create upward price pressure on domestic canola products in the short term [2].

Core Viewpoint - China has initiated anti-dumping investigations against synthetic rubber imports from Japan and Canada, citing substantial harm to its domestic industry [2][4]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The investigation targets "halogenated butyl rubber" used in passenger car tires, with the process starting in September 2024 [2][4]. - Preliminary findings indicate that synthetic rubber from Japan and Canada is causing significant damage to China's domestic industry [2][4]. Group 2: Import Duties - As of August 14, 2023, importers are required to pay a maximum deposit of 40.5% of the import value to customs [2]. - Japanese companies will need to pay a deposit ranging from 13.8% to 30.1% of the import value, while Canadian companies will face a deposit of 26.2% to 40.5% [4].

Group 1: Government Policies - The Ministry of Finance and eight other departments announced that service industry operators can enjoy interest subsidies on loans up to 1 million yuan, with a subsidy rate of 1% for a maximum of one year [1] - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on personal consumption loans, covering various categories including household vehicles and education [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration clarified that income from express delivery services will be subject to VAT as "collection and delivery services" [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - A closed-door meeting of key dry-process lithium battery separator manufacturers reached several agreements to address issues like price competition and overcapacity, emphasizing price discipline and industry cooperation [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations into imported canola seeds from Canada, confirming that dumping has caused substantial harm to the domestic canola industry [3] Group 3: Company News - Guizhou Moutai reported a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 8.89% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 9.10% to 89.389 billion yuan [3] - Cambrian Technology refuted rumors regarding large orders and revenue forecasts, urging investors to rely on official announcements [4] - Shangwei New Materials disclosed that its major shareholder reduced its stake to 5% by selling 1.5844 million shares [5] - China Shipbuilding announced a buyback price of 30.02 yuan per share for dissenting shareholders, with the stock closing at 38.50 yuan, indicating a premium of 28.25% [6] - Hengxin Oriental is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for alleged information disclosure violations [7] - Quzhou Development plans to acquire 95.46% of Xian Dao Electric Science and Technology, with the stock set to resume trading [8] - ST Shengtun will change its stock name to Shengtun Mining and remove risk warnings, allowing for a 10% trading limit [9] - Grand Microelectronics acquired 100% of LUCEDA NV to expand into silicon photonics technology [10] - Sifang Precision plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.25% due to shareholder funding needs [11] - Shaanxi Huada intends to purchase 100% of Huajing Microelectronics through a share issuance [12] - Hailanxin plans to acquire 100% of Hailan Huanyu for 1.051 billion yuan, constituting a major asset restructuring [12] - Ganfeng Lithium is collaborating with LAR to develop a lithium product production line with an annual capacity of 150,000 tons [13] - Yuhua Tian clarified that a minor stake acquisition by Zhiyuan Innovation does not significantly impact its operations [14]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] Group 2: Research Analysts - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Group 3: Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 9078, opening price 9246, highest price 9388, lowest price 9224, closing price 9362, up 284, up 3.13%, volume 443030, open interest 270663, open interest change -29322 [7] - P2601: Previous settlement price 9106, opening price 9254, highest price 9432, lowest price 9252, closing price 9396, up 290, up 3.18%, volume 407076, open interest 380486, open interest change 68812 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 8410, opening price 8486, highest price 8520, lowest price 8422, closing price 8488, up 18, up 0.93%, volume 140203, open interest 306250, open interest change -28769 [7] - Y2601: Previous settlement price 8400, opening price 8440, highest price 8510, lowest price 8410, closing price 8476, up 16, up 0.90%, volume 408640, open interest 682979, open interest change 19822 [7] - OI609: Previous settlement price 9596, opening price 9699, highest price 9848, lowest price 9596, closing price 9802, up 242, up 2.53%, volume 271285, open interest 117479, open interest change -8561 [7] - OI601: Previous settlement price 9557, opening price 9605, highest price 9850, lowest price 9557, closing price 9810, up 253, up 2.65%, volume 271777, open interest 255572, open interest change 53304 [7] - Basis prices: Dongguan tertiary rapeseed oil in August: OI2509 + 80; Dongguan first - grade rapeseed oil in August: OI2509 + 220; East China market soybean oil basis price from August - September: Y2509 + 220, from October - November: Y2601 + 270, from October - January: Y2601 + 280, from February - May: Y2605 + 280; East China 24 - degree spot P09 + 40 yuan/ton, 11 - month shipment P01 + 120 yuan/ton; South China 24 - degree P09 + 20 yuan/ton [7] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - The bullish sentiment in the oil and fat market is strong, with large - scale capital inflows into the three major oils, and futures prices hitting new highs for the year. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is bullish for rapeseed oil in terms of market sentiment. Soybean oil is promising in the long - term due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, possible reduction in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and recovering domestic demand. Palm oil continues to strengthen due to increased export. There is little room for a sharp short - term decline in the three major domestic oils, with a bullish outlook and recommendation to hold long - dated basis contracts [8] Group 5: Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase from 366,482 tons in the same period in July [9] - On August 12, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada. Temporary anti - dumping measures in the form of deposit will be implemented starting August 14, with the dumping margin for Canadian companies at 75.8% [8][9] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures include East China tertiary rapeseed oil spot price, East China quaternary soybean oil spot price, South China 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][19][26][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China and the US have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for another 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, which may allow the risk - preference in the capital market to continue [22]. - The A - share market is currently in a slow - bull trend, and in August, during the policy window period and the concentrated disclosure period of interim reports, the market may experience local hot - spot rotation. Investors should focus on sectors with strong performance prospects [23]. - For A - shares, the main stock indexes continue the trend of oscillating upward. It is recommended to follow the trend in investment, pay attention to locking in profits during rapid rallies, and look for low - buying opportunities in IF, IM, and IC [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - news - China and the US issued a joint statement on the Stockholm economic and trade talks. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12. China will also continue to suspend relevant measures on the unreliable entity list [9]. - Three departments jointly issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on personal consumption loans, and nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on loans to service - industry business entities [9]. - The US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of over 90% [10]. - The preliminary ruling of the Ministry of Commerce shows that there is dumping of imported rapeseed from Canada and halogenated butyl rubber from Canada and Japan. Temporary anti - dumping measures will be implemented starting from August 14, and an anti - dumping investigation will be launched on imported pea starch from Canada [10]. - The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices has been shelved this time [10]. - The Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" malicious competition, and eight dry - process lithium battery separator enterprises reached a consensus on anti - involution [11]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term but still in a downward trend [14]. - The sugar market has a situation of mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see. If it effectively breaks through the 5630 pressure level, a light - position long position can be tried [14]. - The corn market also has mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the competition at the 2260 key level [14]. - The national average price of live pigs is falling steadily. The futures price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [14]. - The spot price of eggs is stabilizing. The futures market has a large selling pressure, and it is recommended to avoid long positions [14][15]. - The cotton price is oscillating upward, but it still lacks a core driving force in the short term. Attention should be paid to the USDA report and subsequent news [15]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price continues to be weak. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the futures price may continue to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [17]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to the news of coking enterprise production restrictions [18]. - The copper price continues to oscillate and consolidate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand [18]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern and is expected to continue interval consolidation [18]. - The steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating and upward trend due to cost increases and production - reduction expectations [18]. - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices are oscillating, and the market is mainly affected by macro and coal industry policies, showing an interval oscillation with a rising center of gravity [21]. - The lithium carbonate futures price has risen, with strong expectations but weak reality in the fundamentals. It is recommended to operate within the range, and pay attention to the progress of mining license renewals and terminal restocking [21]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - On August 12, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. The futures and options markets of various indexes showed different trends. Trend investors should pay attention to the strength - based arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [21][22].