广发证券批零社服首席分析师 嵇文欣 中国拥有悠久的茶文化和庞大的茶消费群体，但繁琐的传统沏茶步骤限制了消费者，特别是年轻群体对 茶的消费。现制茶饮的出现大大简化了制作过程，并通过不断优化产品获得更多年轻人青睐。在这一过 程中，产生了"珍珠奶茶"等经典产品。2015年，新茶饮概念横空出世，现制茶饮品牌开始使用原叶茶、 鲜奶、鲜果等优质原料，产品品质明显提升。尤其是随着头部茶饮品牌规模化发展和供应链升级，更多 消费者能够通过实惠的价格享受高品质产品，行业逐步实现结构性升级。 近些年标杆性企业的优秀表现，让资本市场进一步认识到现制茶饮行业的发展潜力，并将板块贴上了新 消费的标签。不少投资者也对这一赛道表现出了浓厚兴趣。针对现制茶饮行业，我们可以从供需两侧、 长短期驱动、短期外卖补贴影响等维度展开分析。 益，而部分中小品牌加盟商很可能出现增收不增利的情况。 随着外卖补贴大战趋于理性，市场担心后续同店营业额是否仍有增长支撑、明年4月起的同店营业额高 基数压力，以及补贴教育出的低价习惯或将使消费者对原价茶饮的接受度降低。基于对行业的分析，我 们认为：（1）头部品牌拳头产品优惠力度相对较低，做活动的产品大多为低价引流品，产 ...

New Products - 羴牧欧铂佳 launched a new goat milk powder with high OPO content of 4.6g/100g and a dual prebiotic combination (FOS+GOS) [7] - FILA introduced the new "4810 Peak Goose Down" series of down jackets designed for extreme weather conditions [5] - 京东 officially launched its fresh coffee brand "七鲜咖啡" [5] - Kiri released a new product combining French cheese with crispy cookies, available in strawberry and blueberry flavors [10] - 盼盼食品 launched a customized butter layer toast in collaboration with 永辉超市, featuring ≥12% butter and ≥20% fresh milk [12] - 哈根达斯 announced winter new products including various ice cream flavors and desserts [13] - "茶颜悦色" is entering the coffee market with a new sub-brand and a unique coffee menu [18] - 斯凯奇 formed a strategic partnership with 美团闪购 to expand its market presence [18] - 飞鹤's 星飞帆 product won the prestigious Italian A' Design Award [11] - 太平鸟 showcased its "PEACEBIRD Starry Realm" pop-up event in Xi'an [11] - Sony acquired the film rights for the Labubu character, expanding its entertainment portfolio [11] Industry Events - Apple plans to shift its iPhone release strategy to twice a year starting in 2026, marking a significant change in its product launch approach [16] - 名创优品 registered the trademarks MINISO FRIENDS and MINISO LAND, indicating new store formats [18] - 斯凯奇 and 美团闪购's partnership will see over 200 stores in more than 40 cities collaborating [18] - 北京's largest Sam's Club is set to open on November 21 [18] - Babycare's diapers will be available in over 170 Kids Plaza stores in Vietnam [20] - 湖南 opened its first robot 4S store, showcasing various smart robots [20] - 京东外卖 will launch a standalone app, enhancing its delivery service [21] Investment Trends - Cur sor raised $2.3 billion in D round funding with investments from major firms including Google and Nvidia [22] - 欧莱雅 invested in the Chinese skincare brand LAN, indicating a focus on local brands [24] - 运动营养品牌 "迈胜" completed nearly 100 million yuan in A round financing led by 仙乐健康 [25] - 腾迈医药 raised $22 million in A+ round funding from prominent investors [26] - "新叶 NEAVES" secured 30 million yuan in angel round financing for product development [26] - 智能耳环 brand Lumia announced $7 million in funding, bringing total funding to $17.2 million [26] - 沃兰特航空 raised several hundred million yuan in B+ round funding, positioning itself as a leader in the eVTOL sector [27] - SKIMS achieved a valuation of $5 billion after raising $225 million [28] - 婴之坊 received a 10 million yuan investment aimed at facilitating its IPO [28] - 康诺思腾 completed $200 million in D round financing with backing from various venture capital firms [28] Food Industry Developments - 果子熟了 launched a new zero-calorie, zero-caffeine barley tea [29] - 纽仕兰牧场 introduced a high-protein milk product rich in Omega-3 [29] - 沃尔玛 upgraded its private label brand, introducing nearly a thousand new or improved products [29] - 全家 Fami l yMart opened 15 new stores in Yangzhou, marking a significant expansion [29] - 妙可蓝多's cheese product was selected as a featured food for Shanghai tourism in 2025 [30] - 古茗 launched a new slow-cooked series featuring premium ingredients [30] - 飞鹤's 星飞帆 product won the Italian A' Design Award for its design excellence [31] - 王老吉's WALOVI international can was launched in Malaysia, expanding its market reach [31] - 北海牧场 will operate independently from 元气森林, indicating a strategic shift [31] - 海底捞's 小嗨爱炸 brand opened its first pizza store, diversifying its offerings [32] Beauty Industry Movements - Garmin launched two new products in its instinct series, targeting fitness enthusiasts [34] - 太平鸟's pop-up event in Xi'an showcased a blend of art, technology, and fashion [34] - Dr. Martens collaborated with Marc Jacobs to release a new boot design [37] - 泡泡玛特 introduced a new IP, expanding its product line [37] - GARCON BY GARCON opened its first store in Shanghai, emphasizing cultural dialogue through design [37] - Sony acquired the film rights for Labubu, expanding its entertainment portfolio [38] - lululemon unveiled the Canadian national team gear for the 2026 Winter Olympics [38] - Hourglass's founder plans to launch a new makeup brand, focusing on high-performance products [40] - 雅诗兰黛 acquired a minority stake in the Mexican luxury perfume brand Xinú, marking its first investment in Latin America [40] - LV's women's leather goods director Johnny Coca has stepped down after over five years [40]

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 短期保持谨慎，静待市场企稳 财信证券宏观策略周报（11.24-11.28） 2025 年 11 月 23 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -0.75 1.82 13.86 沪深 300 -1.86 4.27 11.74 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。上周在海外市场调整影响下，万得全 A 指数阶段性向下调整，跌 破震荡调整区间，短期仍需合理控制仓位，静待指数企稳信号出现。一是从 资金面来看，11 月底之前机构倾向于守住全年收益，加仓意愿不强，但 12 月 中旬开始，机构资金将逐步开始布局 2026 年方向，存在"抢跑"的预期；二 是中央经济工作会议通常在 12 月中旬召开，将为明年经济工作指明方向，预 计在中央经济工作会议前后，政策预期利好将支撑市场；三是从技术形态来 看，201 ...

3 元 3 - 1 - 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本周重磅发布策略报告,挖掘新消费、看好全球制造 本期投资提示: -纺织服装行业周报 20251123 相关研究 《 澳毛价格企稳回升，全运会开幕提振户 外运动板块——纺织服装行业周报 20251116》 2025/11/16 《 10 月纺服出口承压,中美磋商利好有望 修复出口链一 -- 纺织服装行业周报 20251110》 2025/11/10 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanqlp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 (8621)23297818× zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时代小 本周纺织服饰板块表现强于市场。11 月 17 日 ~ 11 月 21 日, SW 纺织服饰指数下 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in the textile and apparel sector, particularly focusing on new consumption trends and global manufacturing recovery [3][16][18]. Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market during the week of November 17 to November 21, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 4.8%, which was 0.3 percentage points better than the SW All A index [4][10]. - Recent industry data shows that from January to October, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 1,205.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [3][34]. Textile Sector Insights - The Australian wool price index stabilized at 983 cents per kilogram as of November 20, 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 32.3% and a monthly increase of 5.4%, indicating a bullish trend in wool prices [10][50]. - The report suggests that the current price increase in Australian wool is in its early stages, driven by supply constraints and new demand from sports wool yarns, presenting investment opportunities [10][18]. Apparel Sector Insights - Amer Sports reported a 30% increase in revenue to $1.76 billion for Q3 2025, with a net profit increase of 161% to $190 million, exceeding previous guidance and indicating strong growth in the outdoor segment [13][15]. - The report recommends focusing on outdoor sports brands such as Bosideng, which is expected to benefit from seasonal sales and a favorable market environment [15][18]. Investment Strategy for 2026 - The investment strategy for the textile and apparel industry in 2026 focuses on consolidating positions and exploring new consumption trends, particularly targeting younger consumer demographics [16][17]. - The report highlights the importance of the global tariff landscape stabilizing, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of core manufacturing [18]. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies in the outdoor sports segment include Anta, Bosideng, and 361 Degrees, with a focus on brands that are well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming winter season and the Milan Winter Olympics [17][18]. - The report also identifies potential in discount retail and personal care sectors, suggesting companies like Hailan Home and Nobon Co., which are expected to benefit from changing consumer behaviors [17][18].

以下文章来源于东四十条资本 ，作者鲁智高 东四十条资本 . 聚焦股权投资行业人物、事件、数据、研究、政策解读，提供专业视角和深度洞见 | 创投圈有趣的灵魂 从2012年推出"伯希和"品牌，到2015年正式成立公司，伯希和在多年的发展过程中，也获得了安徽文化产业投 资私募基金、建安集团等国资，以及启明创投、金沙江创投、同程资本、腾讯等投资者的认可，估值达到28亿 元。 如果看目前的回报，当地国资可谓是投资者中最大的赢家。短短两年左右，亳州国资除了有近三千万元的财务回 报，更是通过龙头企业伯希和等带动了当地轻纺服饰产业的快速发展。 夫妻创业，三年卖出超380万件冲锋衣 伯希和的故事，得从一对夫妇说起。 时间回到2006年，刘振和妻子花敬玲在北京做起了面向海外品牌的服装出口贸易。六年后，他们为把握内地户 外服装市场的增长机遇，顺势推出了"伯希和"品牌。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 一路走来，伯希和只完成了两轮融资。 作者丨鲁智高 来源丨 东四十条资本 一个位于安徽小城的知名品牌正冲向港股。 在三年卖出超380万件冲锋衣后，伯希和于近日再次申请在港上市。虽然主攻千元以下冲锋衣市场，但他们凭借 高性价 ...

Economic Outlook - Multiple domestic and foreign institutions predict that China's economy will maintain a steady growth trajectory in 2026, supported by policy measures, structural upgrades, and the release of potential [1][3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates moderate growth in 2026 due to appropriate easing policies and gradual rebalancing, while UBS expects more precise policy support to enhance economic resilience [3] Policy Support - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a confidence booster for foreign institutions, indicating China's commitment to enhancing advanced manufacturing competitiveness and boosting exports [7] - Targeted support measures, such as energy cost subsidies for businesses and consumer incentives, are expected to play a crucial role in sustaining economic activity [7] Export and Manufacturing - China's manufacturing and export sectors are showing strong resilience, with exports remaining a core support for economic growth [8] - Analysts note that improvements in economic structure and technological advancements are lowering trade costs, stabilizing profit margins for export enterprises [9] Domestic Demand - The potential of the domestic market is accelerating, with various consumer promotion and livelihood policies expected to be key drivers for expanding domestic demand in 2026 [11] - The government has prioritized expanding consumption, which is viewed as a direction for high-quality growth not only for 2026 but for the next decade [13] New Consumption Trends - The rise of new consumption sectors is injecting fresh momentum into economic growth, with expectations for brands to gain more market recognition and expand internationally [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple domestic and foreign institutions have released strategy reports for 2026, indicating that China's economy will continue to show steady growth next year [1][2]. Economic Growth Outlook - There is a positive consensus among various institutions regarding China's economic trajectory in 2026, driven by policy support, structural upgrades, and the release of potential [2]. - Morgan Stanley predicts moderate growth for China's economy in 2026 under a backdrop of appropriate easing policies and gradual rebalancing [2]. - UBS expects more precise policy support in 2026, contributing to resilient economic activity [2]. Export and Manufacturing Resilience - Exports remain a core support for economic growth, with strong resilience observed in manufacturing and exports [3]. - Analysts from various institutions believe that China's "going global" strategy will further enhance profit growth opportunities for enterprises [3]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - The potential of the domestic market is accelerating, with a series of consumption-boosting policies expected to play a key role in expanding domestic demand [4]. - The rise of new consumption sectors is injecting fresh momentum into economic growth, with a focus on brands gaining market recognition and expanding overseas [5]. Key Economic Themes - Resilience, innovation, stability, and openness are identified as key themes for the Chinese economy [6]. - The shift from traditional factor-driven growth to technology-driven growth is highlighted, with a focus on emerging technologies like AI and quantum technology [6][7]. - The stability of domestic policies is seen as a solid foundation for innovation and a crucial guarantee for steady economic progress [8]. Financial Sector Insights - Institutional openness and sustainable development concepts are viewed as vital for the continuous vitality of China's economy in the context of open cooperation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The apparent contradiction regarding the abundance and shortage of skilled talent in China can be reconciled by understanding that while there is a large pool of skilled workers, specific market demands create dynamic shortages in certain areas [1][2]. Group 1: Current Talent Landscape - China has over 72 million high-skilled workers, making it a leading country in terms of talent resources and R&D personnel [1]. - Despite the large number of skilled workers, there are significant gaps in specific skill sets due to rapid labor mobility, insufficient compensation, and limited growth opportunities in certain sectors [2]. Group 2: Market Demand Dynamics - The rapid development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data has created a demand for roles like AI trainers and cloud network operators [3]. - Emerging industries, such as low-altitude economy and smart manufacturing, are generating new talent requirements, exemplified by the need for drone flight planners [4]. - The diversification of consumer needs has led to a demand for specialized skills, such as travel photography and home renovation management [5]. Group 3: Government Initiatives - The government is implementing various measures to enhance skill development, including the "Skill China Action" and high-skilled talent cultivation plans [6]. - Policies are being introduced to reform skill evaluation systems and promote lifelong vocational training, aiming to align talent supply with market needs [6]. Group 4: Industry Adaptation - Educational institutions are adjusting their curricula to better align with market demands, fostering closer ties between academia and industry [7]. - The integration of talent supply chains with industry and innovation chains is accelerating, enhancing the relevance of training programs [7]. Group 5: Market Response and Opportunities - The job market is responding to the demand for skilled talent with rising wages for in-demand positions, reflecting the dynamic nature of employment opportunities [8]. - The evolving job market is prompting individuals and families to reassess career paths, aligning personal development with market needs [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a correction phase since October, primarily due to previous significant gains, tightening dollar liquidity, and a decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the ongoing AI wave and the influx of incremental capital suggest that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks is likely to continue [1][2][13]. Market Adjustment - Since the beginning of the year, the Hong Kong stock market has performed well, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech reaching new highs in early October. However, by mid-October, the market began to adjust, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a maximum decline of 5.1% and Hang Seng Tech a maximum decline of 8.1% [2]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech recorded maximum gains of 47% and 61% respectively this year before entering the current adjustment phase [2]. Factors Influencing the Market - The tightening of dollar liquidity and the decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have pressured the Hong Kong stock market. The U.S. government shutdown led to a temporary halt in government spending, causing dollar liquidity to tighten [3]. - Despite the end of the government shutdown, economic data remains unclear, leading to cautious Federal Reserve rate cut decisions. The market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut in December has dropped to 40% [3]. - The significant prior gains in the Hong Kong stock market, coupled with rising concerns over AI bubbles, have created selling pressure. The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a maximum increase of 61% this year, while the Hang Seng Biotech Index has increased by 130% [3][8]. Historical Context of Market Corrections - In bull markets, adjustments are common, categorized into small corrections (average maximum decline of about 7%) and large corrections (average maximum decline of about 17%). Small corrections typically occur due to short-term market sentiment disturbances, while large corrections are often linked to liquidity tightening or external shocks [7][8]. - Historical data shows that small corrections in the Hang Seng Index average a maximum decline of 6.5% and last about 12 trading days, while large corrections average a maximum decline of 17% and last about 53 trading days [7][8]. Future Outlook - The tightening dollar liquidity is viewed as a short-term disturbance, and the AI wave is expected to continue. The release of previously accumulated liquidity following the end of the U.S. government shutdown may support the Hong Kong stock market [13]. - Incremental capital inflows and the gathering of quality assets suggest that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks may continue. The unique characteristics of Hong Kong assets, particularly in the context of the ongoing transformation in the domestic economy, enhance their attractiveness [13][14]. - Southbound capital is expected to continue flowing into the Hong Kong market, with over 1.3 trillion yuan already invested this year. This trend is likely to be supported by institutional investors, further propelling the market upward [14].