Core Insights - The public fund industry has shown a significant profit effect in 2025, with notable performance from the Rongtong Industrial Trend fund, which achieved a net value increase of 114.61%, far exceeding the benchmark of 17.02% [1] - Fund manager Li Jin has been pivotal in this success, focusing on sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which he refers to as a "sense of the times" investment strategy [2][3] Fund Performance - Rongtong Industrial Trend achieved a return of 114.61% in 2025, ranking first among 349 similar standard equity funds [1] - Rongtong Industrial Trend Zhenxuan also doubled its performance with a 100.22% return in the same year [1] - Li Jin has been managing these funds since March 2023, with a strong focus on growth sectors [1][2] Investment Strategy - Li Jin emphasizes the importance of identifying industries with significant demand expansion and rapid growth, focusing on areas where market efficiency is lacking [2] - The investment strategy has been heavily centered on artificial intelligence since March 2023, despite initial market skepticism [2] - Li Jin's research has led to a tactical adjustment in Q3 2025, where he reduced exposure to new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals due to overvaluation and unmet performance expectations [3] Market Outlook - For 2026, Li Jin anticipates a shift in economic growth drivers from monetary easing to credit expansion, which will support the recovery of corporate profitability [5] - The supply-side optimization is expected to enhance corporate earnings, with a forecast of double-digit profit growth for A-shares in 2026 [5] - Chinese companies are increasingly gaining global competitiveness through proactive international expansion, contributing to sustained growth in relevant sectors [6] - The overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, suggesting a transition from valuation-driven to a more balanced approach of fundamental and structural reform-driven growth [6] Future Focus - Li Jin plans to continue focusing on sectors with long-term growth potential, particularly in artificial intelligence, which is still in a critical "infrastructure" phase [6] - The demand for computing power and related technologies is expected to grow exponentially, with significant capital investments from internet companies [6] - Continuous attention will be given to opportunities in new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, aiming to identify high-quality growth leaders in emerging trends [6]

万事达卡经济研究所研究报告指出，2026年中国消费将呈现出显著的强化趋势，"新消费"品类——如美 容健康、新兴生活方式以及由"粉丝经济"驱动的消费热潮有望持续扩容。特别是消费者从追求"单纯低 价"转向拥抱"精明消费"的变革趋势，正重塑中国零售业与数字渠道的生态。 德意志银行中国区首席经济学家熊奕表示，2026年消费将继续成为中国经济增长的主引擎，预计将为 GDP贡献2.8个百分点，商品消费或将录得温和增长，服务消费亦将在政策支持下持续改善。 中新社上海1月1日电 (记者 姜煜)新年伊始，多家外资机构展望2026年中国经济发展前景时不约而同指 出：消费仍是主引擎，其在中国GDP中的占比将继续提升。 据威灵顿投资管理宏观策略师郁嘉言分析，2025年，中国消费的复苏得益于强有力的财政支持，一个可 喜的迹象是，消费结构正在由商品转向服务，消费者更愿意把钱花在休闲旅游、外出就餐、个人兴趣爱 好及生活方式等体验和享受型消费方面。与此同时，部分细分领域出现高端化趋势，消费者更青睐产品 的设计与品质，而非价格。这些都是在消费信心回升以及商品供给充裕背景下出现的新型消费升级形 态。 "2026年，消费在中国GDP中的占比将继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of consumer behavior in China, highlighting the coexistence of emotional and rational consumption trends, and the implications for investment opportunities in the market [5][22]. Group 1: Consumer Trends - Despite perceptions of a cooling consumer market, data shows that final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 9 percentage points from 2024 [6]. - Social retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year, surpassing the 3.5% growth expected for the entire year of 2024 [6]. - A McKinsey survey indicates that the expected share of domestic consumption in disposable income for 2025 is stable at 0.0%, a significant improvement from the previous year's expectation of -0.5% [9]. Group 2: Emotional and Rational Consumption - The article identifies two main trends in consumer behavior: emotional consumption, which focuses on personal satisfaction and identity, and rational consumption, which emphasizes quality and cost-effectiveness [13]. - A Nielsen IQ report reveals that 47% of respondents in China purchased only essential items to avoid waste, while 68% were willing to spend more on products that help relieve stress [13]. - The rise of the second-hand economy is noted, with platforms like Xianyu seeing a daily average of 7 million items listed, reflecting a growing acceptance of "recycling consumption" among young consumers [14]. Group 3: Future Consumption Landscape - The emotional economy in China is projected to reach a market size of 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 4.5 trillion yuan by 2029 [15]. - The article suggests that the health and wellness industry, as well as the pet economy, will benefit from shifting consumer spending towards self-investment and emotional fulfillment [20]. - The emergence of AI-driven emotional technology and virtual consumption is anticipated to create new market opportunities, as consumers increasingly seek personalized emotional experiences [21].

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies Involved - Pop Mart - Laopu Gold Core Insights and Arguments - Both Pop Mart and Laopu Gold utilize consumer-driven marketing for brand promotion, focusing on aesthetic superiority rather than cost-effectiveness to attract consumers, creating a unique "breaking the circle effect" [1][2] - For the second and third quarters of 2025, both companies expect significant profit growth to approximately 13 billion, driven by increased confidence from rising stock prices. However, recent stock price declines have raised doubts about the 30% growth forecast for 2026 [1][2] - There is a notable divergence in market expectations regarding the 30% growth forecast for 2026. While overseas markets continue to show high growth (Pop Mart over 100%, Laopu Gold 150-200% after price increases), the growth rate has declined compared to earlier in the year, raising concerns about sustainability [1][4] - The inability to predict future performance through traditional store-opening methods adds significant uncertainty to the future performance of both companies. There is intense debate between bullish and bearish perspectives regarding their business models and the decline in overseas growth [1][4] Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Investor confidence is primarily influenced by stock performance and specific sales data. Sales data from January and February 2026, expected in March-April, will provide trend guidance. An increase in stock prices could also enhance market confidence, but the long-term growth potential still requires validation [5] - Pop Mart focuses on building intellectual property (IP) as its core competitive advantage, while Laopu Gold is the world's first jewelry brand primarily made of gold. Both companies have distinct characteristics and have achieved some success overseas, supported by a loyal fan base [3][5] - Investors should recognize the value of these companies and understand their development direction aligns with national policies promoting consumption. Despite short-term uncertainties, there is potential for significant growth if key data points, such as sales figures and stock trends, are monitored [7][6]

Group 1 - The article reflects on the past ten years of the "New Consumption Think Tank," emphasizing that the initial passion for the project has evolved into a deeper understanding of its significance [2][4][5] - The author highlights that surviving without debt is a significant achievement in entrepreneurship, suggesting that longevity and self-sufficiency are more important than grand ambitions [7][8][9] - The narrative critiques the glorification of entrepreneurship, arguing that the journey itself holds more value than the end results, and that true wealth comes from daily experiences [10][14][15] Group 2 - The article posits that happiness is derived from the ability to be present and engaged in daily life, rather than from material wealth [17][18] - It discusses the importance of focusing on personal growth and self-acceptance, rather than seeking external validation or societal approval [25][26][27] - The author emphasizes the need for clarity in direction after reconciling with oneself, shifting focus from acquiring to contributing [29][30] Group 3 - The article mentions health challenges faced by the author, which served as a wake-up call to appreciate the fleeting nature of time and the importance of living meaningfully [31][33][34] - It suggests that true fulfillment comes from internal alignment and the pursuit of personal passions, rather than conforming to external expectations [38][40] - The narrative concludes with a commitment to a future focused on personal values and helping others, rather than chasing conventional success [49][51]

Group 1 - A clear policy "warm wind" is blowing towards the consumption sector, with the national financial work conference emphasizing "greatly boosting consumption" as a key task for the coming year [1] - The first batch of 625 billion yuan for the 2026 consumption goods replacement fund plan has been quickly allocated, reflecting a coherent determination from central to local levels to stimulate domestic demand [1] - Recent market reactions show significant inflows into cyclical and consumer sectors, with trading heat in sectors like retail and consumer services exceeding the 80th percentile [1][2] Group 2 - Several consumer retail stocks have experienced sharp price increases, with Baida Group's stock price doubling in the past month and other companies like Shanghai Jiubai and Lihua shares also seeing substantial gains [4][5] - Despite the market heat driven by policies and funds, many public funds have shown poor performance, with few of the leading stocks being heavily held by institutions [5][6] - The divergence between market performance and institutional holdings indicates a profound shift in investment logic, with institutions reallocating from traditional consumption to sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology [6] Group 3 - The consumption sector's valuation has reached historical lows, creating a foundation for a potential recovery [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the current valuation levels in the consumption industry are attractive compared to historical and international benchmarks, with a focus on identifying companies that can adapt to changing market conditions [8][9] - The dividend yield of the main consumption index has reached 3.89%, indicating a potential for increased market attention on traditional consumption sectors benefiting from domestic consumption policies [9] Group 4 - There is significant internal differentiation within the consumption sector, with some new consumption stocks showing promise while traditional sectors like liquor and white goods remain weak [10][11] - Marginal improvements in the fundamentals of the consumption sector have been observed, with certain industries like real estate-related sectors showing signs of stabilization and profit recovery [11] Group 5 - Long-term investment logic is being restructured, focusing on overseas expansion, new consumption models, and evolving consumer demands [12][13] - The "outbound strategy" is highlighted as a key growth area, with companies that can leverage their domestic competitive advantages in international markets expected to perform well [13][14] - The changing consumer landscape, driven by a new generation of middle-class consumers, is influencing consumption patterns and investment priorities [15] Group 6 - Looking ahead to 2026, there is a structural optimism regarding the consumption sector, with expectations of a return to balanced growth as the real estate cycle stabilizes [16] - Key areas of focus for future investment include overseas expansion, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gaming sectors, with traditional consumer sectors also expected to see growth [16][17] - The long-term value of consumption remains, but the investment approach has evolved, emphasizing the need to align with emerging trends and structural changes in the market [18]

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 私募基金管理人除了可以自主发行基金产品外，还可通过与其他持牌金融机构合作的方式提供资产管理服务。比较典型的方式就是由证券公司、 基金管理公司、期货公司及前述机构依法设立的从事私募资产管理业务的子公司以非公开的形式募集资金或者接受财产委托，设立私募资产管理 计划，或由信托公司发行信托计划，私募基金管理人则接受聘请，作为产品的投资顾问，为其提供专业的投资策略建议和研究支持。 信托方面来看，IFinD数据显示， 截至12月24日，183家证券类私募旗下有业绩显示的信托产品共1926只，今年来收益均值高达19.40% ；其中 股票策略信托产品占比最多，共1137只，今年来收益均值为21.10%。 私募管理人担任信托产品投资顾问，不仅是业务拓展的机遇，更是整体投资研究能力、市场分析能力和资产配置能力的重要体现。 为此，本文 按不同规模私募， 分别梳理出今年来业绩前十的股票策略信托产品， 供投资者参考。 (同一私募管理的相同策略，仅选取收益最高的产品参与 排名) 01 位居第2、第3的分别是： 淡水泉担任投资顾问的"平安信托-淡水泉成长三期"，今年来实现收益 ...

2025年应该用什么标注？ 这是在历史留下浓墨重彩的一年。无论是宏大叙事，还是情绪幽微，或如雷霆，或如雨露，氤氲着变 化，积蓄着能量。从"十五五"规划建议、九三阅兵、关税博弈、顺差万亿，到DeepSeek横空出世、 LABUBU火遍全球、人形机器人"爆单"、芯片国产替代浪潮，再到黄金狂飙、外卖大战、哪吒"封神"、 短剧崛起……它们形成历史的合力，裹着无数的人们，奔流激荡，冲向历史的峡口。 无论月薪多少，国家大事与每个个体同气连枝，结成命运共同体。于国是数字经济，于人是数字生活， 赛博朋克，殊途同归。 新世纪过去四分之一，恰好在2025年，AI照耀蓝星。穹顶之下，我们要思考如何与AI相处。科技至 此，退无可退，卢比孔河边的骰子已经掷下。 这是从来没有过的"惊险一跳"，兴奋迷惘、跃跃欲试与焦虑恐惧，每一种情绪都是真实的，也是缠绕 的。国家衔枚疾走，只争朝夕，两个大国在AI、算法和算力上趸积起天文数字的基础设施投资，点亮 不同的科技树。个体在享受AI便利的同时，会担心自己被AI替代，担心未来被AI支配。"百万漕工衣食 所系"，从来都不是轻描淡写的适者生存。 世界处于巨变前夜，断层线肉眼可见，君子不立危墙之下。承载着 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Labubu economy" is facing significant challenges as the secondary market's premium ability declines, leading to a loss of appeal for Pop Mart in the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - Investors are reassessing whether Pop Mart can maintain its high growth narrative and if its core IP is merely a fleeting trend [2] - Reports of weakened demand from scalpers have caused Pop Mart's stock to drop by 6.2%, marking its largest decline in three weeks and making it one of the worst performers in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index [2] - Since peaking in August, Pop Mart's stock has fallen approximately 44%, resulting in a market value loss of over $25 billion [5] Group 2: Secondary Market Dynamics - The sell-off was triggered by reports of significant price volatility in the secondary market, indicating weak demand and causing some scalpers to halt their stockpiling activities [4] - Data from the resale platform Qianshao shows that the average price of the mini Labubu set has fallen below the official retail price, with the "Sit Down" series dropping from nearly $400 to about $110 [8] Group 3: Growth Concerns and Market Expansion - Pop Mart's revenue growth in North America has slowed to 424%, halving compared to the previous quarter [10] - Despite aggressive marketing efforts, disappointing performance during the U.S. Black Friday and cooling resale demand have raised concerns about Pop Mart's long-term viability as a brand comparable to Disney or Sanrio [11] Group 4: Valuation and Diversification Efforts - Some institutional investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to negative market sentiment and uncertainties regarding future earnings per share [14] - Pop Mart is attempting to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single IP by investing in other IPs and expanding into the entertainment sector, including theme parks and film development [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the journey of the Chinese manufacturing industry over the past 20 years, emphasizing the need for a return to authenticity and sustainable practices in the face of past impulsiveness and rapid growth [2][6]. Group 1: Industry Development - The term "impulsiveness" is used to describe the rapid development of the Chinese manufacturing industry, which has been characterized by a rush to seize opportunities since China's entry into the WTO in 2001 [3][5]. - The author highlights the significant investments made during peak years, such as over 200 million yuan spent on advertising in 2018, despite the company's total revenue being only around 300 million yuan [4][6]. - The narrative illustrates how many entrepreneurs, including the subject, were initially successful in capitalizing on the era's opportunities but later faced challenges due to market volatility and impulsive decisions [5][10]. Group 2: Personal Journey and Lessons - The subject, a veteran in the manufacturing sector, experienced a significant downturn in 2009, with production dropping by 98% due to the global financial crisis, which served as a wake-up call about the importance of understanding market dynamics [11][13]. - The transition from a focus on B2B production to branding and direct consumer engagement was marked by a realization that true value creation requires a long-term commitment to quality and customer relationships [6][20]. - The subject emphasizes the importance of maintaining a focus on core competencies and the need for genuine innovation and management practices to ensure long-term survival in the manufacturing sector [20][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article concludes with a reflection on the current state of the manufacturing industry, noting that despite rapid growth, there remains a lack of strong organizational and branding capabilities among Chinese manufacturers [21][22]. - The subject advocates for a cautious and thoughtful approach to business, emphasizing the need to understand the historical context of the industry to navigate future challenges effectively [21][22].