国信证券(香港)·资讯日报 股票市场概览 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 | 年 日 2025 7 | 月 | 2 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资讯日报 | | | | | | | 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | | | | | | | | | | | 升跌（%） | | | 指数名称 | | | 收市价 | 单日 | 年内 | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 24,072 | (0.87) | 20.00 | | 恒生国企 | 8,678 | (0.96) | 19.05 | | 恒生科技 | 5,303 | (0.72) | 18.68 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,495 | 0.91 | 4.59 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,198 | (0.11) | 5.38 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,203 | (0.82) | 4.62 | | 德国 DAX | 23,673 | (0.99) | 18.91 | | 法国 CAC | 7,663 | (0.04) | ...

6月30日，段永平发帖："对贵州茅台，大家在害怕什么呢？有点意思！"从贵州茅台股价表现来看，5月 15日以来，截至7月1日，股价下跌超12%。 贵州茅台股价持续下跌，知名投资人段永平坐不住了。 他在社交平台发帖表示："对贵州茅台，大家在 害怕什么呢？有点意思！"此后有网友表示，茅台是茅台最好的背书。段永平对此深表认同 。 段永平一直十分看好贵州茅台。今年1月9日，段永平发帖表示："今天买了腾讯，也买了茅台。"3月， 段永平透露："我们买茅台主要用的是人民币。" 值得注意的是，虽然近期白酒板块表现不佳，但资金持续涌入酒相关ETF。与此同时，当前消费领域整 体热度显著提升，公募加大产品布局力度。 不过，虽然十分看好贵州茅台的投资价值，段永平反对加杠杆投资。有位网友提问："年轻人可以在好 公司股价特别便宜（例如前段时间茅台1400元左右）的时候通过银行贷款来投资吗？" 段永平再谈茅台 段永平解释说："如果你懂投资，你不需要加杠杆，因为你早晚会赚到钱的；如果你不懂投资，那么你 更不应该加杠杆，因为杠杆早晚会让你破产的。" 资金加仓酒ETF 对贵州茅台保持关注的不止段永平。事实上，公募基金长期重仓持有贵州茅台。Choi ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Consumption Index (HSCGSI) has shown a positive trend, with a 0.40% increase as of July 2, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Gu Ming (up 5.68%) and China Resources Beer (up 4.40%) [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) has rebounded over 15% since its low on April 8, 2025, indicating strong market performance [1] - The trading volume for the Hang Seng Consumption ETF reached 86.7 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.5% [1] Group 2 - The latest size of the Hang Seng Consumption ETF is 1.152 billion yuan, with a net value increase of 26.19% over the past year [2] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 22.30% since its inception, with an average monthly return of 5.42% and a total annual profit percentage of 100.00% [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the HSCGSI account for 60.72% of the index, with Pop Mart having the highest weight at 11.32% [2] Group 3 - In May, retail sales in China grew by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by policies promoting consumption and increased holiday periods, marking the highest growth rate since early 2024 [3] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism plans to launch a national summer cultural and tourism consumption season, offering over 570 million yuan in subsidies to boost consumer spending [3] - The Hong Kong stock market has become a hotspot for consumer companies since September 2024, with brands like Mi Xue Ice City and Lao Pu Gold listing, driven by favorable policies and capital inflow [3] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) offers T+0 trading and has associated off-market links for easy access to Hong Kong's new consumption sector [4]

证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 02 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3457.75 | 0.39 | | 深证成指 | 10476.29 | 0.11 | | 创业板指 | 2147.92 | -0.24 | | 科创 50 | 994.80 | -0.86 | | 北证 50 | 1457.07 | 0.68 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 671956 | 521417 | 12.36 | 1.28 | | 深证成指 | 229463 | 188356 | 20.38 | 2.16 | | 创业板指 | 60217 | 47827 | 28.03 | 3.90 | | 科创 50 | 34911 | 23319 | 54.08 | 4.17 | | 北证 50 | 3240 | 2226 | 49.82 | 5.00 ...

券商中国记者从渠道获悉，千亿私募景林资产管理合伙人、基金经理高云程近日发布2025年中给投资者的 一封信《拥有"城里最好的三个生意"》。 在信中，高云程表示："找到那个有好生意的城，找出最好的几个生意，长期拥有这些生意。"要把组合集中在 尽可能少的确定性机会上，大部分时候：少才能对，慢就是快。 他还表示，世界正在从单极变为多极， 中国资产应该获得世界的平视 。这个再平衡的过程，会给组合带来一 定的额外奖励。 拥有"城里最好的生意" "2025年上半年像看大片一样精彩和跌宕。" 高云程在信中称，大波动叠加结构性机会形成了上半年股票市场 的主基调。很多行业都出现了DeepSeek时刻。抓住新消费和创新药这两个结构性机会的投资者，觉得这半年 是大牛市。AI（人工智能）的发展在经历波折后，继续用强劲的基本面证明这是当前最伟大的技术革命，有 需求、有投资、有应用，也开始有收入。此外，坚信中国长期无风险收益率会持续低位的投资者，也通过投资 高股息公司躺赢。 高云程谈到，年轻人通过自己的消费行为塑造了新时代的新消费范式，新"禁酒令"却让旧消费雪上加霜。现在 抢玩偶的人，上一代他们的同龄人在抢购生肖茅台，和再之前的邮票、普洱 ...

Group 1 - The domestic equity market showed an increase in risk appetite in June, with technology growth and large financial sectors performing well under external shocks [1] - The market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation in July, with mid-year report forecasts becoming an important short-term sentiment indicator [1][2] - The upcoming July 9 deadline for the 90-day tariff suspension may impact the A-share market, with mixed negotiations ongoing between the US and other countries [1][2] Group 2 - The July Politburo meeting is anticipated to address short-term economic pressures, with expectations for fiscal policy to support the real estate market [2] - The July mid-year report preview season is approaching, with recent market sentiment being pessimistic despite structural improvements in corporate fundamentals [2] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting is expected to maintain a cautious stance on economic outlook and inflation, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on inflation in July and August [2][3] Group 3 - The consumption sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at boosting demand, with strong expectations for structural opportunities in the consumer industry [3] - Dividend assets are likely to perform well due to low interest rates and stable fundamentals, attracting long-term capital [3] - Gold and defense-related assets remain attractive due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on their defensive value [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for a catalytic period, benefiting from favorable policies and stronger support for high-quality development [3]

70 后至 00 后的新兴消费变迁史，是轮回还是演进？ 20250701 摘要 消费者行为转变：消费者在预算受限情况下，更加注重情绪价值和悦己 型消费，例如潮玩、宠物、美妆等低单价但情绪属性强的商品，以及具 有储蓄属性的黄金珠宝，体现了宏观降级但自身升级的消费趋势。 国货品牌崛起：国货品牌在美妆领域已占据超过 50%的市场份额，并通 过技术升级和国潮文化在其他领域持续提升市场份额。功能性和时尚潮 流是推动国货崛起的重要因素。 产品驱动增长：渠道驱动和内容营销驱动逐渐失效，消费品市场进入产 品驱动增长时代，需要通过更好的性价比产品来刺激消费者购买决策。 黄金消费新趋势：黄金饰品消费从婚庆礼赠转向悦己和保值需求，新工 艺技术使得黄金饰品种类更加丰富，情绪价值较高且单价较低的新品类 增速明显。 情绪价值溢价：在经济下行周期，通过情绪价值实现产品溢价是一种有 效方式，例如高价手机壳品牌 Casefiy 和小件高频商品如沙发套，通过 满足消费者情绪需求获得较高定价权。 Q&A 新消费趋势的驱动力是什么？其背后的经济和社会背景有哪些变化？ 新消费趋势的驱动力主要来自于经济基础和社会背景的变革。首先，随着 GDP 增长到一 ...

以下文章来源于36氪未来消费 ，作者李小霞 36氪未来消费 . 在这里看到消费的未来。36氪旗下官方账号。 又一个百亿市值IPO。 文 ｜ 李小霞 编辑 ｜ 乔芊 来源｜ 36氪未来消费（ID：lslb168） 封面来源 ｜ 企业官网 随着if椰子水母公司成功上市，一只椰子的"钞能力"再次被呈现出来。 6月30日， IFBH Limited在港交所正式IPO，这家拥有 if椰子水、Innococo 品牌的公司，盘中涨幅一度超65%。按收盘价39.5港元 算，市值超100亿港元。 IFBH是一个泰国人于2013年创立的主营为椰子水的公司， 椰子水销售可占到总收入的96%。自 2017 年起，if 椰子水借助电商渠 道正式进军中国大陆市场，开启了以中国为增长引擎的向上之路。 招股书显示，IFBH2024年营收1.58亿美元（约11亿人民币），同比增长 80%； 其中中国内地占比92.4%，收入高达1.46亿美元。 在中国内地市场占有率约为34%， 超越第二大竞争对手七倍以上， 连续五年位居第一名。 在递交招股书后，IFBH仅用两个多月时间就通过了上市聆讯，创下了今年食品饮料企业港股过会最快纪录。 相比中国市场第一 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of new consumer brands in Henan, such as Mi Xue Bing Cheng, Pang Dong Lai, and others, which are reshaping the commercial landscape of the region [1][9][18] - Henan is transitioning from a traditional agricultural province to a hub of consumer innovation and modern retail, driven by a combination of local resources and market opportunities [12][13][19] Group 1: Commercial Development - The opening of Zhengdong Vientiane City marks a significant step in establishing Zhengzhou as an international consumption center, featuring a mix of urban retail and flagship stores [4][6] - The region has seen a surge in commercial complexes and flagship stores, with Mi Xue Bing Cheng achieving record sales of 600,000 cups in a single day [4][5] - The establishment of a "米" shaped high-speed rail network has transformed Zhengzhou into a consumer hub, facilitating access to 123 cities and an average daily passenger flow of over 300,000 [4][17] Group 2: Consumer Trends - New consumption patterns are emerging, with brands like Mi Xue Bing Cheng representing affordable consumption, while Pang Dong Lai symbolizes quality consumption [9][11] - The rise of experiential and emotional consumption is evident, as brands focus on creating unique shopping experiences and emotional connections with consumers [16][19] - The article notes that the success of these brands is rooted in their ability to understand and respond to the genuine needs of consumers [12][19] Group 3: Economic Impact - The retail sales in Henan are projected to reach 27,597 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [17] - In the first five months of this year, the province's retail sales totaled 11,820.14 billion yuan, with Zhengzhou contributing 2,763 billion yuan [17] - The emergence of new consumer brands is expected to enhance the economic landscape of Henan, with more brands likely to gain national and international recognition [18][20] Group 4: Future Prospects - The article suggests that the rise of new consumer brands in Henan is not a fleeting trend but indicative of a deeper transformation in the region's commercial ecosystem [14][18] - The integration of local brands with international ones is anticipated to enrich the consumer market and elevate the region's commercial profile [20] - The potential for further innovation and brand development in Henan is significant, as the region continues to leverage its cultural heritage and entrepreneurial spirit [16][21]

● 本报记者王宇露王雪青 经过前期的上涨，部分新消费个股估值是否已经到了偏贵的程度，成为整个市场关心的问题。对此，明 世伙伴基金认为，新消费涵盖的细分方向很多，相关个股估值是否偏高不能一概而论。从景气成长的角 度来看，主要关注个股定价程度是否已经透支了远期的想象空间，以及高频数据变化是否支持股价进一 步向远期空间拓展。由于新消费所涵盖的细分方向大多是渗透率偏低的消费方向或行业空间大但相关公 司份额小的方向(分别对应渗透率提升和份额提升的成长机会)，虽然部分个股股价已有明显上涨，但是 并没有显著透支远期想象空间。 在星石投资副总经理、基金经理方磊看来，短期来看新消费头部公司业绩增长在数据端得到验证，市场 持续上调新消费领域的业绩预期，带动新消费个股出现了一波较为亮眼的行情。但这同时也导致了资金 对新消费头部标的交易较为拥挤，主题热度也由一线标的向三四线标的延伸。从头部企业估值来看，当 前市场可能正在用短期业绩增长来为公司长期价值定价，当前部分新消费个股的估值可能高于中长期中 枢。这意味着拉长时间来看，部分新消费个股存在估值波动的风险，如果业绩预期落空，前期过热的资 金交易可能会导致新消费标的股价出现较大调整。 ...