Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to be relatively strong due to the rebound of crude oil prices. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [1][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - BU2511 closed at 3,351 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.75%, and 3,360 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.27%. Its trading volume was 23,261 lots (a decrease of 13,871 lots), and the open interest was 20,836 lots (a decrease of 6,357 lots). - BU2512 closed at 3,294 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.80%, and 3,313 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.58%. Its trading volume was 62,268 lots (an increase of 11,812 lots), and the open interest was 62,327 lots (a decrease of 14,053 lots). - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 12,420 lots with no change [1]. - **Spot Market**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,470 yuan/ton with no change. - The refinery operating rate was 37.64% (an increase of 1.06% from the previous period), and the refinery inventory rate was 29.90% (an increase of 0.09% from the previous period) [1]. - **Spreads**: - The basis (Shandong - 11) was - 11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. - The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. - The Shandong - South China spread was - 60 (an increase of 10 from the previous day), and the East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 2. Market Information - In November 2025, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (a decrease rate of 18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (a decrease rate of 6.5%) [12]. - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 1.3% from October 16. The refinery warehouses in the Southwest and South China regions had obvious destocking. - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.394 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% from October 16. The social warehouses in Shandong and the Northwest regions had obvious destocking [12].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the significant increase in coking coal futures, with the leading contract rising by 4% [1] Group 1 - Coking coal futures have seen a notable price increase, indicating strong market demand or potential supply constraints [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Styrene, PVC, Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated in the table, but with analysis in the report [3] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: The symbol in the table is unclear [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different price trends and supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and policies, and their short - term and medium - term trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with controllable enterprise inventories and stable offers. Downstream follow - up was okay, and the trading range was stable [2] - Polyethylene futures rose, but the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Sellers mostly offered small discounts [2] - Polypropylene futures rose. Although the supply pressure decreased due to more upstream maintenance, the demand improvement in the peak season was limited, and the high - level inventory was slowly digested. The supply - demand contradiction may increase, and the price may remain low for a long time [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices rebounded above 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China rebounded, and the low - level transactions in Shandong improved. The short - term price may rebound, but the high import volume in the medium term is the main pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose, but there were only expected device shutdowns. The inventory remained high, and the upward price momentum was limited [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rebounded with reduced positions. The short - term price may continue to rebound, mainly depending on oil prices. In the medium term, with the weakening demand and expected inventory accumulation, the strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with increased positions. The short - term price has a rebound expectation, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the medium term, suggesting shorting at high prices [5] - Short fiber continued to be a bullish allocation. The new production capacity was limited, the inventory was decreasing, and the downstream备货 sentiment was improved [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. The long - term pressure is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated at a low level. The short - term coastal market may fluctuate within a range, and the price may be bullish in the medium - to - long term as the import supply pressure is expected to decrease [6] - Urea futures prices rose slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, supported by the marginal improvement of supply - demand and coal prices [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating trend. The supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range due to weak domestic demand and potential export policy pressure [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated narrowly. The supply fluctuated slightly, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting due to non - aluminum downstream restocking and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated strongly. The supply was still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass fluctuated narrowly. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the downward range is expected to be limited. It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money put options [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The easing of the Russia-Ukraine crisis affects the market [2][4]. - Silver: The contradiction in the spot market eases, leading to a rise and then a fall [2][5]. - Copper: The rise of the US dollar puts pressure on copper prices [2][9]. - Zinc: Supported by the external market [2][12]. - Lead: The decrease in domestic inventory supports the price [2][15]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][17]. - Aluminum: Ranges in a fluctuating manner; Alumina: Shows a slight rebound; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel: Narrow - range short - term fluctuations with accumulating contradictions; Stainless steel: Difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, while cost limits the downside space [2][23]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of沪金2512 yesterday was 994.06 with a daily increase of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 945.44 with a night - session decrease of 4.64% [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [7]. Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of沪银2512 yesterday was 11805 with a daily increase of 0.51%, and the night - session closing price was 11285.00 with a night - session decrease of 4.86% [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [7]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract yesterday was 85,400 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 85020 with a night - session decrease of 0.44% [9]. - **Industry News**: China's copper import and production data in September and other related industry news, such as China's 9 - month cumulative import of copper concentrates increasing by 7.7% year - on - year [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 21970 with a 0.55% increase, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2976 with a 1.24% increase [12]. - **News**: The "cornering" situation in the London zinc market, with the available inventory being less than one - day's demand and the spot premium reaching the highest level since 1997 [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17160 with a 0.59% increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1994 with a 1.17% increase [15]. - **News**: Related news about the Russia - Ukraine process and the Anshi Semiconductor issue [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 280,870 with a 0.55% increase, and the night - session closing price was 281,070 with a 0.16% increase [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A series of macro - economic news such as China's housing price data and LPR quotes [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20965, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2810 [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: News about the Anshi Semiconductor issue and the situation of margin debt in the US stock market [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for all, indicating neutral views [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,180, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,665 [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: News about the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia and China's suspension of a non - official subsidy for Russian - imported copper and nickel [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating neutral views [25].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The reduction of domestic lead inventories supports the price of lead [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,160 yuan/ton, up 0.59% from the previous day, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,994 dollars/ton, up 1.17% [1]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 43,537 lots, an increase of 15,881 lots, and the trading volume of LME lead was 6,002 lots, an increase of 14 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 33,556 lots, a decrease of 4,639 lots, and the open interest of LME lead was 153,816 lots, a decrease of 324 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -20 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -41.78 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.07 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -184.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.75 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of the Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -225.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42.14 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 28,133 tons, a decrease of 1,132 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 247,300 tons, unchanged [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - The Russia - Ukraine process is full of twists and turns: the preparation for the "Trump - Putin meeting" has encountered obstacles, and Europe has clearly responded to Trump for the first time, calling for an "immediate cease - fire" [1]. - Regarding the issue of Nexperia, China firmly opposes the over - generalization of the "national security" concept, hopes that the EU will play an important constructive role, and urges the Netherlands to adhere to the spirit of contract and market principles and propose a proper solution as soon as possible [1]. 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value range being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices fluctuate and closed down 60 yuan/ton to 8,505 yuan/ton. September's export volume decreased by 8% month-on-month to 70,200 tons but remained year-on-year growth. In October, the supply of industrial silicon increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region reduced production, the impact on output was small, and the supply side still increased due to the increase in Xinjiang's output. Considering the potential increase in raw material costs such as coal prices and the rise in electricity prices in November, the future price center is expected to move up. Currently, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract falls to the low level of 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, one can consider buying on dips [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon rose by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg, and the futures price fluctuated and slightly rebounded by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, with futures at a discount. On the demand side, the output of silicon wafers increased significantly, and the demand for battery wafers was supported by overseas purchases driven by India's ALMM policy and the demand for high - efficiency wafers in domestic centralized projects. It is highly likely that the output will increase in October. Whether the demand can absorb the increased output during the fourth - quarter rush installation and the increase in export orders will have a significant impact on prices. Currently, the polysilicon market is relatively stable. One should pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand orders. In the future, the supply in the southwest region will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices, but one should guard against the risk of inventory accumulation due to lower - than - expected demand [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing, highlighting the surplus. The weekly output is at a high level, and the surplus is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. Most of the inventory has been transferred to the mid - and downstream, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. One can track macro fluctuations and the load - control situation of soda ash plants. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the operation idea is to short on rebounds [4]. - Glass manufacturers' sales are average, and they continue to cut prices. Hubei's price is basically at par with the futures market. In recent days, the futures market has continued to weaken, trading on the logic of a non - prosperous peak season and fundamental surplus. In addition, the mid - stream inventory in some regions remains high without obvious destocking. In terms of industry supply - demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the LOW - E开工率 remains low without obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the surplus problem. Currently, the futures market has been trading on the non - prosperous peak - season logic. In the medium term, one should pay attention to the spot trading rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the prices of overseas raw materials have been firm recently, and the significant destocking of dark - colored rubber still provides cost support for rubber prices. However, there is a strong expectation that the weather in northeastern Thailand will improve, and the raw material prices are expected to weaken. One should pay attention to future weather conditions. On the demand side, after the "Double Festival" holiday, most of the enterprises that had maintenance have resumed normal production, but the overall market has not shown obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the enterprise equipment will operate stably in the short term, adjusting production according to their own orders. In summary, the short - term macro - environment has improved, and the rubber price has rebounded due to the improvement in fundamentals. One should pay attention to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price may decline further; if not, the rubber price is expected to operate around 15,000 - 15,500 [5]. Logs - The log futures fluctuated yesterday, with the 2601 contract closing at 838 yuan/cubic meter, up 3.5 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong being 760 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 780 yuan/cubic meter. Last week, the inventory decreased. As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. On the demand side, the outbound volume increased. As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week. On the supply side, this week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 from the previous week; the total arrival volume is about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5%. Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand of logs. The 01 contract is relatively strong. The new round of overseas quotes has increased, and the subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The spot prices of East China's oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on October 21 compared with October 20. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 increased by 60 to 845, with a 7.64% increase; the basis of SI4210 increased by 60 to 392, with a 17.91% increase; the basis of Xinjiang increased by 60 to 1045, with a 6.09% increase [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 45 to - 40, a decrease of 900%; the spread of 2511 - 2512 remained unchanged; the spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 5 to 55, an increase of 10%; the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 to - 10, an increase of 33.33%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 to - 5, a decrease of 150% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, an increase of 9.10%; Xinjiang's output increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, an increase of 19.78%; Yunnan's output increased by 1,400 tons to 59,500 tons, an increase of 2.41%; Sichuan's output decreased by 800 tons to 52,900 tons, a decrease of 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%; Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 13.39 percentage points to 74.00%; Yunnan's operating rate decreased by 5.68 percentage points to 41.71%; Sichuan's operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 44.94%. The output of silicone DMC decreased by 12,900 tons to 210,200 tons, a decrease of 5.78%; the output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 46,000 tons to 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. The export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 6,400 tons to 70,200 tons, a decrease of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Change - Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased slightly by 0.01% to 108,500 tons; Yunnan's factory inventory remained unchanged; Sichuan's factory inventory increased by 2.89% to 25,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 3.12% to 562,000 tons; the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6.45% to 317,700 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.92% to 244,300 tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 200 yuan/ton to 53,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38%; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged; the basis of N - type material decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 2,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11% [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price increased by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74%. The spread of the current month - the first continuous contract increased by 52,265 yuan/ton to 1,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 103.82%; the spread of the first continuous - the second continuous contract increased by 130 yuan/ton to - 2,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.22%; the spread of the second continuous - the third continuous contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 87.50% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - The output of silicon wafers increased by 15,200 tons to 143,500 tons, an increase of 11.85%; the output of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [2]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the import volume increased by 300 tons to 1,300 tons, an increase of 28.46%; the export volume decreased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, a decrease of 28.16%; the net export volume decreased by 1,100 tons to 900 tons, a decrease of 56.83%. The output of silicon wafers increased by 30,100 tons to 590,500 tons, an increase of 5.37%; the import volume decreased by 100 tons to 400 tons, a decrease of 17.96%; the export volume remained unchanged at 6,700 tons; the net export volume increased by 100 tons to 6,300 tons, an increase of 1.96%. The demand for silicon wafers increased by 27,200 tons to 613,400 tons, an increase of 4.64% [2]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, an increase of 5.42%; the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5,300 tons to 173,100 tons, an increase of 3.16%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,290 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices of glass in North China, East China, South China remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 76, a decrease of 24.59% [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly. The 05 basis increased by 6 to 2, an increase of 150% [4]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 3.37 percentage points to 88.41%, and the weekly output increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, an increase of 3.37%. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 2,000 tons to 161,300 tons, an increase of 1.16%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 62,824,000 weight boxes; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 1.6598 million tons; the soda ash delivery inventory increased by 4.05% [4]. Real - estate Data (Month - on - Month) - The new construction area increased by 0.09 percentage points to - 0.09%; the construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%; the completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%; the sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex rubber remained unchanged; the basis of full - latex decreased by 340 to - 850, a decrease of 66.67%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference decreased by 240 to - 600, a decrease of 66.67%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber increased by 0.25 baht/kg to 50.45 baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue remained unchanged. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna increased by 300 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna remained unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 to - 5, a decrease of 10%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to 5, an increase of 200%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5 to - 50, a decrease of 11.11% [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 20,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a decrease of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 85,000 tons to 189,000 tons, a decrease of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, an increase of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%; the operating rate of full - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52%. In August, the domestic tire output increased by 859,000 to 102.954 million; in September, the tire export volume decreased by 671,000 to 5.63 million. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 46,000 tons to 520,800 tons, an increase of 9.68%; in September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons to 740,000 tons, an increase of 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand increased by 67 yuan/ton to 12,717 yuan/ton,

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term drive is limited, with weak oscillations. Supply is expected to contract, but overall remains weak. Suggest to wait and see, focus on Brent crude oil support at $60/barrel, and conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [1]. - PTA: Short - term drive is limited, with weak oscillations. Spot basis has weakened, but the downward space is limited. Suggest to wait and see, focus on Brent crude oil support at $60/barrel, and treat TA1 - 5 with rolling reverse arbitrage [1]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply is abundant, with expected inventory accumulation in October and high accumulation in November - December. Suggest to short EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of call option EG2601 - C - 4250, and conduct EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage at high prices [1]. - Short - fiber: Supply is at a high level, and terminal demand in Q4 is expected to be weak. Prices are supported in the short - term due to low inventory. Suggest the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading, and shrink the processing margin when it is above 1000 in the range of 800 - 1100 [1]. - Bottle - chip: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period, prices fluctuate with the cost side. Suggest the same strategy as PTA for PR single - side trading, and expect the main - contract processing margin to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Overall supply and demand in October are expected to be loose, with weak price drive. Suggest BZ2603 to oscillate following styrene and oil prices [2]. - Styrene: Supply will remain high, and demand support is limited. Prices are still under pressure in the short - term. Suggest to short EB12 on price rebounds [2]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Short - term supply is increasing, and demand support is weak, with prices tending to be weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is demand support. Suggest to short in the short - term and track downstream restocking [3]. - PVC: Supply and demand pressure is high, and the contradiction is difficult to resolve. Cost provides bottom support. Suggest to stop short - selling and wait for changes in demand [3]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: Prices may continue to oscillate. Focus on overseas device stability, customs clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and actual arrival. Pay attention to port inventory reduction and overseas gas - limiting expectations [4]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Supply pressure is prominent in the medium - to - long - term, and demand lacks bright spots. The 01 - contract upside is limited. Prices are under pressure due to macro - environment, cost, and supply - demand factors [6]. 3. Summaries by Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (December) decreased slightly. CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged. Most upstream prices were stable or slightly decreased [1]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices decreased slightly, and cash flows showed different changes [1]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX remained unchanged, while PX spot price in RMB decreased by 1.2% [1]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot price decreased by 0.6%, and futures prices also decreased slightly [1]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot price decreased by 0.4%, and futures prices had minor changes [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: Asian and Chinese PX operating rates decreased, while PTA and MEG operating rates increased slightly [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased slightly, and most upstream prices remained stable [2]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and cash flows and spreads changed [2]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of most downstream products improved [2]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: Operating rates of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industries decreased [2]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: Caustic soda prices decreased, PVC prices remained stable, and futures prices had minor changes [3]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB quotes and export profits decreased [3]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR quotes decreased slightly, and export profits decreased significantly [3]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates decreased, and some profit indicators changed [3]. - **Demand: Downstream Operating Rates**: Some downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC changed [3]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased slightly [3]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices had minor changes, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, while port and social inventories decreased [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream operating rate decreased, and overseas upstream operating rate increased [4]. Polyolefin Industry - **Polyolefin Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of LLDPE and PP increased slightly, and spot prices also had minor changes [6]. - **PE and PP Non - standard Prices**: Some non - standard prices of PE and PP decreased slightly [6]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates changed slightly, and downstream weighted operating rates increased slightly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Polyester Industry**: In the short term, PX, PTA, and other products are mainly in a weak shock state. The supply of PX is expected to shrink, but the overall supply - demand is still weak. PTA's basis has weakened, and the supply of ethylene glycol is abundant with a high probability of inventory accumulation. Short - fiber prices are supported by low inventory, and bottle - chips may enter a seasonal inventory accumulation channel [1]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene in October is expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure in the short term [2]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The demand for caustic soda is weakly supported in the short term but may have support in the medium - long term. The supply - demand pressure of PVC is large, and the price is weak, but the cost end provides bottom support [3]. - **Methanol Industry**: The price of methanol may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the stability of overseas device operation, the clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and the actual arrival performance [4]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (December) remained unchanged, CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, etc [1]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 1.2%, FDY150/96 price decreased by 0.1%, etc [1]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX remained unchanged, PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 1.2%, etc [1]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price decreased by 0.6%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 0.4%, etc [1]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.4%, EG futures 2601 remained unchanged, etc [1]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.4%, China PX operating rate decreased by 2.5%, etc [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (November) remained unchanged, CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, etc [2]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot decreased by 1.7%, EB futures 2511 decreased by 1.8%, etc [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flow of phenol increased by 20.8%, the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) increased by 4.1%, etc [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 10.0%, styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.1% [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.1%, domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 4.8%, etc [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 1.2%, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 0.8%, etc [3]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB East China port decreased by 5.0%, export profit decreased by 77.6% [3]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged, CEREDIa decreased by 1.4%, etc [3]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits**: Caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 3.9%, PVC total operating rate decreased by 7.0%, etc [3]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates**: Viscose staple fiber industry operating rate decreased by 1.1%, printing and dyeing industry operating rate increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates**: Longzhong sample building materials operating rate increased by 21.8%, Longzhong sample profile operating rate increased by 109.6% [3]. - **Chlor - Alkali Inventories: Social and Factory Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 1.1%, PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 6.1% [3]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 0.26%, MA2605 closing price increased by 0.09%, etc [4]. - **Methanol Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, methanol port inventory decreased by 3.36%, etc [4]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.86%, upstream - overseas enterprise operating rate increased by 2.28%, etc [4]. Polyolefin Industry - **Polyolefin Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price increased by 0.07%, L2509 closing price increased by 0.30%, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Non - Standard Prices**: East China LDPE price decreased by 0.54%, East China HD film price remained unchanged, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26%, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Inventories**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67%, PE social inventory increased by 4.02%, etc [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply pressure of PVC decreased, but next week, the number of overhauls is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4659 - 4717. The fundamentals are neutral, and factors such as macro - policies and export dynamics should be continuously monitored [6]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [6][9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 317,720 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 149,660 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. Next week, the number of overhauls is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 48.59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 33.26%, a month - on - month increase of 7.39 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 72.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.569 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 46.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 30.4 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand is close to the historical average [6]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 713.18 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 14.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 552.76 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 2.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,363.45 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On October 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,660 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 28 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 360,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.06%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 277,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.71%. The ethylene factory inventory was 83,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. The social inventory was 556,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.76%. It is bearish [6]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [6]. 2. PVC Market Overview - Various indicators such as prices, spreads,开工率, profits, and inventories of different types of PVC enterprises and contracts are presented, including changes compared with the previous values and their respective growth or decline rates [13]. 3. PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The historical basis trend of PVC, along with the East China market price and the main contract closing price, is shown from 2022 to 2025 [16]. - **Price and Volume Trend**: The price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from September to October 2025 are presented [19]. - **Spread Analysis**: The historical spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 are shown [22]. 4. PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: The price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and other data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [25][28][30][32]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production profits, daily and weekly production, and overhaul volumes of PVC are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [37][39]. - **Demand Trend**: The daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream开工率 of different products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and related data of the real estate market and social financing scale are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [41][44][46][51][54]. - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [56]. - **Ethylene Method**: The import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export, are presented [61].

2025 年 10 月 20 日 纯苯：震荡偏弱为主 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z008016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 5566 | 5644 | -78 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1104 | -794 | -310 | | BZ2604 | 5563 | 5634 | -71 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -867 | -882 | 15 | | BZ2605 | 5567 | 5610 | -43 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1105 | -1131 | 26 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 3 | 10 | -7 | BZ2604-EB2604 | -1147 | -1156 | 9 | | BZ2604-BZ2605 | -4 | 24 | -28 | 山东纯苯价格 | 5416 | 5444 | -28 | | 纸货价格：N+1 | ...