市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 出口订单大增 不锈钢价格连续上涨 镍品种 2025-05-15日沪镍主力合约2506开于123230元/吨，收于125230元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.80%，当日成交量为 136563手，持仓量为63077手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘跳空低开后振荡上涨，日盘开盘后继续振荡上涨，午后走平，收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日 大幅减少，持仓量有所减少。中国1-4月社会融资规模增量16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元，市场预估为16.58 万亿元，1-3月为15.18万亿元。中国1-4月新增人民币贷款10.06万亿元，预估为10.47万亿元，1-3月为9.77万亿元。 4月末货币供应量M2同比增长8%，较上月提高1个百分点。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上涨约1075 元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上调，日内镍价再度上幅反弹，下游企业刚需采购为主，精炼镍现货成交整 体有所好转，各品牌现货升贴水多数持稳。其中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2150元/吨，进口镍升水变化50元/吨至 200元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为2 ...

"4月末M2增速较快上扬，背后是上年同期基数大幅走低，以及当月社融增速加快，拉动存款派生。"东方金诚首 席分析师王青表示，当前M2增速明显高于名义GDP增速，显示金融对实体经济具有较强支持性。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析称，后续随着低基数效应的递减，未来M2同比增速会恢复到今年前几个月的正常 增长水平。 另外，狭义货币（M1）余额109.14万亿元，同比增长1.5%，较上月末小幅回落0.1个百分点。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 刘佳 北京报道 4月作为传统的信贷"小月"，信贷投放稳定性和可持续性有所增强。 5月14日，在央行公布的金融数据中，4月新增人民币贷款2800亿元，同比少增4500亿元；4月新增社会融资规模为 11585亿元，同比多增12243亿元。 4月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长8.0%；狭义货币（M1）同比增长1.5%；流通中货币（M0）余额13.14万亿元， 同比增长12%。前四个月净投放现金3193亿元。 在多位受访人士看来，受季节性效应、关税冲击以及债务置换等多因素影响下，4月新增信贷有所回落，但政府债 发行等支撑下，社融增速呈稳步走高态势，今年以来金融对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [8] Core Insights - Credit demand remains to be boosted, with government bonds continuing to support social financing [2][6] - April social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [2][4] - The report highlights the need for policy measures to stimulate credit demand and economic recovery [6] Summary by Sections Credit Demand and Financing - In April, new loans added were 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 764 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion yuan [3] - The stock of loans grew at a year-on-year rate of 7.2%, a slight decrease from the previous month [3] - Direct financing in April reached 1.25 trillion yuan, with government bond financing contributing significantly [4] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 and M2 growth rates were 1.5% and 8.0% respectively, showing a slight decline compared to the previous month [5] - Total deposits decreased by 440 billion yuan, with a notable drop in both household and non-financial enterprise deposits [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - China Merchants Bank (600036 CH) with a target price of 54.44 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Industrial Bank (601166 CH) with a target price of 25.60 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Bank of Communications (601328 CH) with a target price of 9.63 yuan and an "Overweight" rating [12] - Chengdu Bank (601838 CH) with a target price of 20.02 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Shanghai Bank (601229 CH) with a target price of 11.93 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK) with a target price of 7.55 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, new RMB loans were 28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 45 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped from 7.4% to 7.2%. New social financing scale was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan, and the social financing stock growth rate rose from 8.4% to 8.7%. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 recovered from 7% to 8%, and the growth rate of M1 under the new caliber slightly decreased from 1.6% to 1.5%. There was an obvious overdraft effect due to the end - of - quarter credit rush, and the enterprise sector was a significant drag on credit growth. However, due to the central bank's "pre - rate cut", the market reaction was dull after the data release. With the support of the pre - issued government bonds, the social financing growth rate continued to rise. In terms of deposits, M1 was not weak, and the return of non - bank deposits supported the significant recovery of the M2 growth rate this month [1][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Non - bank Funds Flow Back to Banks, M2 Growth Rate Recovers - In the second quarter, when the financing pricing is relatively low, wealth management and other broad - based funds increase their allocation of deposits, driving the significant recovery of the M2 growth rate. In April, M2 decreased by 88.15 billion yuan, 2.7 trillion yuan less than the same period last year, driving the M2 growth rate up by nearly 1 percentage point. Non - bank time deposits were the main support, with a year - on - year increase of 1.9 trillion yuan [1][13]. - In April, it was a big month for the growth of wealth management scale. When the capital constraints were relaxed in the second quarter, non - bank institutions had abundant funds and the financing pricing was relatively low. Wealth management might choose to increase the allocation of certificates of deposit and time deposits [16]. - In the long run, official media continued to emphasize downplaying the focus on the growth rate of aggregate targets such as M2. The relationship between the money supply and economic growth is weakening, and the relationship between money and prices is also affected by multiple factors [2][21]. Credit: The Household Sector is Mediocre, and the Enterprise Sector is Obviously Overdrafted - In April, household short - term loans decreased by 40.19 billion yuan, 5.01 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The real estate transactions in April were weak, and the year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities weakened significantly compared with the previous month. New household medium - and long - term loans decreased by 12.31 billion yuan, close to the level of the same period last year and still in the negative range [3][22]. - After the end - of - quarter rush, the performance of enterprise medium - and long - term loans in April weakened significantly. New enterprise medium - and long - term loans in April were 25 billion yuan, 16 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The bill department still had a large - scale impulse, with new bill financing of 83.41 billion yuan in the month, which was seasonally high. Enterprise short - term loans were significantly weak, decreasing by 48 billion yuan in the month, 7 billion yuan less than the same period last year [3][26][27]. Social Financing: Government Bonds Remain the Main Support - The pre - issued government bonds were still the largest supporting item for social financing. In April, government bond issuance was fast, with new issuance of 97.62 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.07 trillion yuan, which was an important sub - item supporting the social financing growth rate. In May, the net financing of government bonds may be around 1.67 trillion yuan, still showing a significant year - on - year increase [4][35]. - The issuance of enterprise bonds rebounded, and off - balance - sheet bills were converted into on - balance - sheet ones. In April, the willingness to issue enterprise bonds rebounded, with new issuance of 23.4 billion yuan, at a seasonal level. Due to the tariff disturbance in April, the central level of bond yields declined, and the enterprise issuance willingness might have rebounded. Unaccepted bills decreased by 27.93 billion yuan in April, at a seasonal low level, and off - balance - sheet bills accelerated the conversion into on - balance - sheet ones at the beginning of the quarter [4][37]. Deposits: M1 is Seasonally Low, Non - bank Deposits Increase Significantly - The month - on - month change of M1 was close to that of the same period last year, at a seasonal low. April was a small month for deposits. Under the new caliber, M1 decreased by 4.3 trillion yuan in the month, 13.03 billion yuan more than the same period in 2024, generally at a seasonally low level. The year - on - year reading of M1 decreased slightly from 1.6% to 1.5% [5][41]. - Among the M2 sub - items, inter - bank deposits increased significantly, and household and enterprise deposits increased slightly year - on - year on a low base. In April, inter - bank deposits increased significantly by 1.5 trillion yuan, 1.9 trillion yuan more than the same period in 2024. After the central level of capital prices declined, the attractiveness of non - bank time deposits might have increased. Enterprise deposits decreased 54.28 billion yuan less year - on - year, and household deposits increased 46 billion yuan year - on - year [5][43].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial data released by the People's Bank of China for the first four months of 2025, highlighting the growth in social financing and the structural changes in credit allocation towards supporting the real economy and high-quality consumption [1][2]. Financial Data Summary - As of April 2025, the total social financing scale was 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 262.27 trillion yuan, growing by 7.1% year-on-year, but down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The structure of financing showed that loans to the real economy accounted for 61.9% of the total social financing, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while government bonds accounted for 20.3%, up 2.1 percentage points [1]. Incremental Financing Analysis - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing was 16.34 trillion yuan, which was 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1]. - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 9.78 trillion yuan, which was 33.97 billion yuan more than the previous year [1]. - Government bond net financing reached 4.85 trillion yuan, up 3.58 trillion yuan year-on-year, while corporate bond net financing was 759.1 billion yuan, down 40.95 billion yuan [1]. Monetary Supply Overview - By the end of April, the broad money supply (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, and a month-on-month increase of 1 percentage point [6]. - The narrow money supply (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, growing by 1.5% year-on-year, but down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [6]. - The increase in M2 was influenced by a low base effect from the previous year, as the financial data had shown a downward trend due to measures taken by the central bank to reduce excess liquidity [6][8]. Credit Structure Changes - The proportion of corporate loans increased from 63% at the end of 2020 to 68% by the first quarter of 2025, while the share of household loans decreased from 37% to 32% [11]. - Small and micro enterprises saw their loan share rise from 31% to 38%, indicating a significant impact from inclusive finance initiatives [11]. - The focus of credit allocation has shifted towards manufacturing and technology innovation sectors, with the share of loans to these areas increasing significantly [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect stable growth in financial totals, despite uncertainties in foreign trade and ongoing local government debt replacement efforts [3]. - The central bank is likely to continue supporting high-quality consumption through targeted financial policies, emphasizing the need for a better alignment of financial products with consumer demand [12][13].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in social financing scale and broad money (M2) growth, indicating a stable and moderately loose monetary policy [1][2] - The acceleration in government bond issuance has been a significant driver of social financing growth, with net financing exceeding 500 billion yuan in April [1][3] - The shift in credit allocation towards small and micro enterprises and the manufacturing sector reflects a structural adjustment in the economy [3][4] Monetary and Financial Data - As of the end of April, the social financing scale reached 424 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, while M2 stood at 325.17 trillion yuan, with an 8% increase [1] - New social financing in April amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, which is approximately 1.22 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and the growth rate exceeded 8% after adjusting for local debt replacement [1][2] Government Bond Issuance - The net financing from government bonds in the first four months of the year surpassed 500 billion yuan, which is about 3.6 trillion yuan more than the previous year [1][3] - In April, the issuance of special government bonds and local government refinancing bonds contributed to a net financing of approximately 970 billion yuan, boosting the social financing growth rate by about 0.3 percentage points [1][3] Credit Structure and Allocation - The proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises increased from 31% to 38%, while loans to large and medium-sized enterprises decreased from 69% to 62% [3] - The allocation of credit has shifted towards the manufacturing and technology innovation sectors, with the share of manufacturing loans rising from 5.1% to 9.3% [3] - The interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans in April were approximately 3.2% and 3.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 50 and 55 basis points, respectively [3] Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties in foreign trade and ongoing local debt replacement, the introduction of a package of financial policy measures is expected to boost market confidence and support the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [4] - Overall, the financial volume is anticipated to maintain steady growth in the near term [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the financial data for April shows a stable and solid growth, reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy [1][6] - As of the end of April, the total social financing scale reached 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, supported by strong fiscal measures and a rapid issuance of bonds [2][4] - The M2 money supply stood at 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0% year-on-year, influenced by a low base effect from the previous year [2][3] Group 2 - The growth of RMB loans reached 10.06 trillion yuan in the first four months, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% as of the end of April, indicating a higher actual support for the economy when adjusting for local debt replacement effects [4][5] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2% in April, down about 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points from the same period last year, indicating a downward trend in financing costs [5] - Recent financial policies introduced by the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies are expected to boost market confidence and support the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in broad money (M2) growth rate, reaching 8% year-on-year by the end of April, which is 1 percentage point higher than the previous month, reflecting effective counter-cyclical adjustments and financial stability measures [1] - In the first four months of the year, new RMB loans increased by 1.006 trillion yuan, with approximately 280 billion yuan added in April alone. The total social financing scale increased by 1.634 trillion yuan during the same period, with April's increment being 116 billion yuan, which is 122 billion yuan more than the previous year [1][2] - The issuance of government bonds has been robust, with net financing of 485 billion yuan in the first four months, which is 358 billion yuan more than the previous year. This is expected to continue supporting social financing growth [2][3] Group 2 - The shift of deposits to wealth management products has decreased compared to last year, with some funds returning to deposit accounts. This trend is influenced by the previous year's bond yield decline and the corresponding rise in wealth management product yields [2] - By the end of April, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.2% year-on-year, with new loans of approximately 280 billion yuan. The increase in loans to enterprises has been a significant factor, with corporate loans rising from 63% to 68% of total loans since 2021, indicating a shift in credit allocation towards the real economy [3] - The recent introduction of a package of financial policies by regulatory bodies is expected to boost market confidence and maintain stable growth in financial aggregates in the near term [3][4]

Group 1 - The central bank released April financial data showing that new RMB loans in April were 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, influenced by hidden debt replacement and seasonal overdrafts [1][2] - The social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan in April, significantly up by 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, with the end-of-month social financing stock growing by 8.7% year-on-year [1][3] - M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year at the end of April, which is 1 percentage point higher than the previous month, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy [1][3] Group 2 - The acceleration in government bond issuance is the primary driver for the increase in social financing growth, with net financing from government bonds exceeding 500 billion yuan in the first four months, up by approximately 360 billion yuan year-on-year [3] - In April, the issuance of special government bonds and refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts contributed to a net financing of about 970 billion yuan, raising social financing growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points [3] - The reduction in bond yields in April encouraged enterprises to increase bond financing, thereby lowering overall financing costs [3] Group 3 - A reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points was implemented, expected to release about 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, enhancing credit supply capabilities in specific sectors like automotive finance and financial leasing [4] - Analysts anticipate that monetary policy will remain "appropriately loose" in the second half of the year, with expectations for continued interest rate cuts and an increase in new loans and social financing [4]

中国人民银行14日发布的金融统计数据显示，前4个月我国人民币贷款增加10.06万亿元，其中企（事） 业单位贷款增加9.27万亿元。 数据显示，4月末，我国人民币贷款余额265.7万亿元，同比增长7.2%。分部门来看，前4个月，住户贷 款增加5184亿元；企（事）业单位贷款增加9.27万亿元，其中中长期贷款增加5.83万亿元。 从货币供应看，4月末，广义货币（M2）余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币（M1）余额 109.14万亿元，同比增长1.5%。 另外，前4个月我国人民币存款增加12.55万亿元，其中住户存款增加7.83万亿元。 此外，同日发布的社会融资数据显示，4月末，我国社会融资规模存量为424万亿元，同比增长8.7%； 前4个月社会融资规模增量累计为16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元。 社融方面，王青分析，4月用于化债的地方政府债券大规模发行，成为带动新增社融同比增加的主因， 表明政府债券融资正在成为稳增长、控风险的主要抓手，这也是一揽子增量政策持续发力的具体体现。 除政府债券融资外，4月表外票据融资和企业债券融资也对社融起到了拉动作用。 "去年同期，政府专项债券和新增未贴现银行 ...