Core Viewpoint - The recent market fluctuations are described as a "predictable black swan," suggesting that while volatility is concerning, it is also an opportunity for investors to refine their strategies and approach the market with a clearer perspective [2]. Market Performance Analysis - The A-share market has shown significant divergence in performance, with some indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 1000 recently breaking through resistance levels, while others are facing critical support tests [2]. - The overall market sentiment is mixed, with the average stock price in the A-share market positioned between a slight decline and a stable trend [5][6]. Impact of External Factors - The recent downturn in global risk assets has led to a notable decrease in risk appetite, but the current A-share index level is higher compared to previous downturns, indicating a different market resilience [15]. - Analysts suggest that the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions is less severe now than in April, as the market has adapted and learned from past experiences [15][17]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to remain cautious and consider waiting for a more favorable entry point, especially in high-quality sectors, rather than reacting impulsively to market fluctuations [23]. - The banking and power sectors are highlighted as potential stabilizers for the index, while technology stocks are expected to maintain their volatility and growth potential despite short-term adjustments [24][26]. Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC meeting and the evolving trade landscape may influence market sentiment, with expectations of a more stable environment post-adjustment [17][20]. - The technology sector is anticipated to receive further policy support, which could drive future market interest and investment opportunities [27].

Core Viewpoint - The future A-share market is expected to experience a systematic and steady upward trend characterized by oscillation and structural differentiation rather than a rapid and comprehensive surge [1] Market Outlook - The market is likely to face pressure from previous trapped positions at key points, leading to normal and healthy fluctuations and corrections [1] - Each quality correction is seen as a consolidation of the bottom, accumulating energy for the next phase of growth [1] Investment Strategy - Stock selection will be more important than market timing, with future opportunities becoming highly differentiated rather than a broad market rally [1] - Funds are expected to continue flowing towards assets that align with national strategies, trends of the times, and high-quality development requirements [1] Key Investment Themes - Two main themes to focus on: - Defensive: High dividend and "China Special Valuation" assets serve as market stabilizers, providing stable cash flow returns suitable for conservative allocation [1] - Offensive: Technology growth sectors represented by AI and new productive forces are seen as the hope for China's economic transformation and future growth, particularly in segments with technological breakthroughs and realizable applications [1]

专题：北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 当清晨的露珠凝起第一缕寒意，当南飞的雁阵划过高远的晴空，时节便悄然踱步至寒露。这是一年中富 有诗意的转折点，秋风褪去了夏末的最后一丝温存，带来了澄澈、清明与一份沉静的期待。 虽然气温逐渐下降，但市场上有不少令人欣喜的"暖意"。建信基金《投资正当"时"》第31话，让我们来 看看寒露节气中的投资新知识。 1、秋钓边品湖鲜，投资也可尝尝鲜 每到寒露时节，深水处太阳已经无法晒透，鱼儿便都向水温较高的浅水区游去，便有了人们所说的"秋 钓边"。同时，随着"西风响，蟹脚痒"，也迎来了一年一度品尝大闸蟹的时节。 都说要当"第一个吃螃蟹的人"，投资中也是如此。今年被视为人形机器人行业发展"元年"，当前或正是 抢占先机的好时候。 人形机器人板块迎来多重利好—— 科技大厂加速入局 全球科技企业正在加速布局人形机器人产业，且国内不少科技公司近期迎来大订单，有望进一步推动产 业发展。 政策端持续催化 近年来，人形机器人成为国家政策中的高频词。今年8月《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》印 发，提出大力发展智能机器人等新一代智能终端。 未来市场空间大 作为下一代生产力工具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market rotation has raised concerns about the effectiveness of dividend strategies, but it may also present a new opportunity for investment in high-dividend assets [1]. Group 1: Institutional Preference for Dividend Assets - Dividend assets are being re-evaluated for their strategic value due to global liquidity easing and structural transformation [1]. - Insurance funds are increasingly investing in high-dividend assets to counteract the pressure of declining market interest rates and to address maturity mismatch risks [1]. - The maximum guaranteed interest rate for ordinary insurance products has dropped to 2%, making a 4% dividend return from long-term equity investments essential for meeting expected returns [1]. Group 2: Evolution of Public Fund Dividend Strategies - Public funds are evolving from simple high-dividend selection to a multi-factor comprehensive strategy, emphasizing both willingness and capability while considering corporate governance and operational quality [2]. Group 3: Hong Kong Dividend Assets as Institutional Favorites - Hong Kong dividend assets have become a priority for institutions, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index rising 21% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI Dividend Total Return Index by 18% [3]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Index offers a dividend yield of 6.27%, significantly higher than the 4.66% yield of the CSI Dividend Index, even after accounting for a 20% dividend tax [4]. - There is a notable valuation gap, with leading companies in Hong Kong's financial and energy sectors trading at 20%-30% lower valuations compared to their A-share counterparts, providing a safety margin [7]. - Hong Kong's offshore characteristics and high foreign capital ratio make it a key beneficiary of foreign capital inflows during the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [9]. Group 4: Recent Decline in Dividend Assets - The recent decline in dividend assets can be attributed to market style rotation, with funds shifting towards growth sectors like semiconductors and AI since July [10]. - Fundamental disruptions, such as coal price fluctuations and concerns over bank net interest margins, have also impacted short-term performance [10]. - Changes in the overseas macro environment, including rising U.S. Treasury yields, have reduced the relative attractiveness of dividend yields [10]. - Structural changes in the funding landscape have increased volatility, with some funds choosing to take profits during the concentrated dividend payout period [10]. - Emotional and currency factors have amplified the volatility of dividend assets, with uncertainties around the National Day holiday prompting cautious behavior among investors [11]. Group 5: Long-term Value of Dividend Assets - Despite short-term pressures, the core logic supporting the long-term value of dividend assets remains intact, with stable cash flow assets offering 4%-6% returns being scarce [12]. - The current adjustment period presents a more favorable entry point for high-quality dividend assets [12]. Group 6: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to focus on the high cost-performance advantage of Hong Kong dividend assets compared to A-shares, with several public funds offering yields above 6% and lower volatility [13]. - The "barbell strategy" is recommended to balance portfolios, combining dividend assets for stable income with high-growth sectors for potential higher returns [14]. - Specific public funds, such as the Wan Jia CSI Dividend ETF and Tianhong CSI Low Volatility 100 Fund, are highlighted for their focus on dividend strategies [14]. Group 7: Conclusion - The recent decline in dividend assets is primarily a result of market sentiment and fund rotation, rather than a fundamental breakdown of their defensive value [15]. - The current market environment offers a rare opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate dividend assets at lower prices, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a balanced investment approach [15].

Core Insights - The enthusiasm for insurance capital research on listed companies is driven by both long-term allocation logic and market environment [2][6][7] Group 1: Research Activity - Insurance companies and asset management firms conducted over 12,000 research sessions on listed companies in the past year, with a notable increase in activity compared to the previous year [2][3] - Among the top insurance asset management firms, Taikang Asset led with 1,105 research sessions, reflecting a 41.67% increase [4] - The research focus is primarily on technology growth stocks, with high-end machinery, electronics, and biomedicine sectors receiving significant attention [2][9] Group 2: Market Environment - The capital market's warming trend has further stimulated insurance capital's interest in researching listed companies [2][6] - The low interest rate environment and asset scarcity are driving insurance companies to increase their equity allocations, with an expected rise of approximately 2 percentage points in equity allocation for the year [7] Group 3: Key Companies and Sectors - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) was the most researched company, receiving 49 sessions from insurance companies and 182 from asset management firms [8] - Other notable companies include Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ), Zhongkong Technology (688777.SH), and Mindray Medical (300760.SZ), each receiving over 30 research sessions [8][9] - The focus on technology-driven growth stocks aligns with national strategic directions, indicating a preference for innovative sectors such as AI, medical devices, and high-end manufacturing [9]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report highlights that the first anniversary of the bull market has resulted in absolute returns for dividend assets, but the perceived gains are weak, with relative returns lagging behind the market [17][18][19] - From October 24, 2024, to September 25, 2025, the banking sector contributed +5 percentage points to absolute returns, while coal was a significant drag on performance [17][18][23] - The report indicates that the current AH premium index is at the 2nd percentile over the past 15 years, suggesting potential for upward correction in A-share dividend assets [18][19] Group 2: Financial Sector Insights - The banking sector is expected to stabilize its interest margins this year, with insurance funds actively increasing stock allocations [17][18] - Recommendations include focusing on banks with high dividend yields and solid asset quality, particularly smaller regional banks like Chengdu Bank and Jiangsu Bank [17][18] - The report suggests that the economic structural transformation will provide greater elasticity in the fundamentals and valuations of banks, with a focus on banks like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank [17][18] Group 3: Transportation and Utilities - The report identifies several high-yield stocks in the transportation sector, emphasizing the investment value of dividend assets [17][18] - Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Anhui Expressway, which are noted for their growth potential [17][18] - In the port sector, China Merchants Port is highlighted for its overseas asset layout and increasing dividend payout ratio [17][18] Group 4: Energy and Chemicals - The petrochemical industry is expected to see accelerated transformation and growth, with a focus on energy security and long-term cash flow stability [17][18] - Recommendations include major players like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [17][18] - The report suggests that coal prices may strengthen due to recent policy measures, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [17][18] Group 5: Food and Beverage Sector - The report notes that leading companies in the food and beverage sector are showing resilience, with a focus on improving bottom-line signals [17][18] - Recommendations include high-dividend stocks like Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to maintain strong cash flows [17][18] - The report also highlights the stability of traditional leaders like Yili and Shuanghui, emphasizing their shareholder return strategies [17][18] Group 6: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is characterized by quality and cyclical dividends, with a focus on leading companies [17][18] - Recommendations include Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are expected to benefit from policy support and improving domestic sales [17][18] - The report also suggests monitoring small appliance leaders like Supor, which are positioned to capitalize on changing consumer demands [17][18] Group 7: Real Estate - The report indicates a recovery in new home transactions from a low base, with a focus on core segments [17][18] - Recommended stocks include Greentown China and Swire Properties, which are noted for their stable cash flows and dividend commitments [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring rental income and occupancy rates in the commercial real estate sector [17][18] Group 8: Metals - The report highlights the recovery of profitability in the metals sector, particularly in aluminum, which is seen as a resilient dividend asset [17][18] - Recommendations include China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum, which are expected to maintain or increase dividend payouts [17][18] - The report also notes the potential for high-dividend stocks in the sector, such as Zhongfu Industrial [17][18] Group 9: Publishing - The education publishing sector is characterized by stability and high dividend yields, with a focus on companies like Southern Publishing [17][18] - The report suggests that companies are actively exploring new business directions, such as AI education, which may provide upside potential [17][18] - Recommendations include Zhongyuan Publishing and Changjiang Publishing, which are noted for their solid fundamentals and dividend policies [17][18] Group 10: Selected Dividend Asset Portfolio - The report presents a curated list of stable dividend assets, including Sichuan Chengyu in transportation and Wuliangye in food and beverage [12][17] - Quality dividend assets highlighted include Midea Group and Southern Publishing, while cyclical dividend assets include Shaanxi Coal and China Hongqiao [12][17] - Potential dividend assets include China Merchants Port in the transportation sector, indicating a diversified approach to dividend investing [12][17]

Core Insights - The Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises 30 Index has been officially launched, focusing on high-quality development characteristics of listed state-owned enterprises in Shanghai, providing a reference for evaluating the effectiveness of state-owned enterprise reforms in the region and supporting value investment in the market [1] Group 1: Index Composition and Methodology - The index is based on policy guidance and state-owned enterprise assessment requirements, utilizing a core logic of "industry selection - stable operation - dividend realization" [1] - The index selection criteria incorporate a unique design based on the central enterprise "one profit and five rates" operational indicator system, which includes total profit, cash return rate, return on equity, and cash dividends per share [1] - The sample stocks are distributed across various industries, with financial-related sectors accounting for 30%, semiconductors for 24%, and transportation for 14%, reflecting regional development characteristics [1] Group 2: Historical Performance and Investment Value - From December 2014 to September 2025, the index achieved an annualized return of 3.81% and a cumulative return of 47.89%, significantly outperforming similar indices [2] - Including dividend income, the annualized return rises to 6.67%, with a cumulative return of 96.51% during the same period [2] - The index is considered to have unique investment value, as its constituent stocks are primarily stable, dividend-paying state-owned enterprise leaders in Shanghai, making it an attractive option for long-term funds seeking stable cash returns [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.19%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.34%. Gold stocks led the gains, with Zijin Mining International up over 55% and Zijin Mining up over 7%. Alibaba rose nearly 2% [1] - Huatai Securities reported that the recent rebound in Hong Kong tech stocks is driven by accelerated domestic AI developments, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index rising nearly 20% since July [1] - CITIC Securities forecasts that Hong Kong stocks will see a performance bottoming out in the first half of 2025, with revenue and profit growth rates recorded at 1.9% and 4.6% respectively as of September 15 [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities estimates that the performance growth of Hong Kong stocks will reach an inflection point in the second half of 2025, with high growth expected in materials, healthcare, and technology sectors [2] - The report from CITIC Jinpu indicates that the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will directly benefit Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on sectors that are expected to perform well due to improved fundamentals [2] Group 3 - According to Guotai Junan, dividend assets are characterized by stable performance and sustainable cash flows, providing investors with stable high dividend returns. Hong Kong stocks offer better value compared to A-shares, with a cash dividend ratio averaging 44% from 2017 to 2024, higher than A-shares' 36% [3] - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng Composite Index is 2.9%, significantly higher than the 1.9% of the Wind All A Index, indicating a clear advantage for Hong Kong stocks [3] - The valuation levels of dividend assets in Hong Kong are relatively lower, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index PE and PB at 7.2 times and 0.6 times respectively, compared to 7.9 times and 0.8 times for the CSI Dividend Total Return Index [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established itself as a leading player in the aluminum industry in China, focusing on an integrated aluminum production chain and demonstrating strong financial performance and growth potential [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Company Overview - The company has over 50 years of experience in the aluminum industry, originally founded as Yunnan Aluminum Plant in 1970, and has developed a comprehensive aluminum production chain from bauxite to aluminum processing [1] - It is recognized as a "National Environmentally Friendly Enterprise" and a green factory, with an integrated production capacity of 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.08 million tons of green aluminum, and other related products [1] - The company has a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 29% for alumina and 72% for carbon products [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for the first half of 2024 reached 2.768 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase, with improving asset quality and cash flow [1] - By the first half of 2025, the company's interest-bearing debt decreased to 2.7 billion yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio fell to 21.95%, indicating a strong financial position [1] - The cash balance at the end of the first half of 2025 was 7.46 billion yuan, an increase of 1.3 billion yuan compared to the entire year of 2024 [1] Group 3: Dividend Policy - The company has been increasing its dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend ratio of 32% for 2024, up 12 percentage points year-on-year, and 40.1% for the first half of 2025 [2] - The total cash dividend for 2024 is expected to reach a historical high, reflecting the company's strong cash flow and reduced debt levels [2] Group 4: Green Energy and Sustainability - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing emphasis on green electricity consumption in the aluminum industry, with a target of at least 25.2% green electricity consumption by 2025, a 20% increase from 2024 [3] - The company utilizes over 80% clean energy in its production, resulting in carbon emissions approximately 20% of those from coal-powered aluminum production [3] - It has achieved a 100% compliance rate in carbon trading and is among the first domestic companies to receive product carbon footprint certification, indicating its leadership in low-carbon production [3] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.93 billion yuan, 7.97 billion yuan, and 8.21 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 57.1%, 14.9%, and 3.1% respectively [4] - A target price of 23.0 yuan is set for the company based on a 10x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, reflecting its strong dividend potential and favorable market conditions [4]

Market Review - The equity market showed mixed performance last week, with the STAR 50 index leading with a gain of 6.47%, while the North Stock 50 index fell by 3.11% [4][5] - Among the 31 sectors, the consumer healthcare sector continued to decline, while power equipment, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and environmental protection sectors performed relatively well [4][5] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on the IPO of Moer Thread, which has passed the review in 88 days, indicating a positive signal for the semiconductor and GPU sectors [15] - The non-ferrous metals industry has a new growth stabilization plan, which can benefit related funds [16] - The implementation of AI in transportation is expected to create opportunities in the transportation and AI sectors [17] Bond Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market last week was 11,223 billion, maintaining a balanced liquidity environment [24] - Long-term and short-term interest rates both declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling to 1.865% [7][10] Fund Market - The equity fund index rose by 0.47%, while the secondary bond fund index increased by 0.08% [13][14] - Short-term and medium-long bond fund indices experienced slight declines [13][14] Asset Allocation Strategy - A balanced core plus barbell strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [18][19] - The technology growth direction is supported by national policies and global trends in AI development [20] - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a strategic investment area due to geopolitical tensions [21] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include short-term bond funds and those benefiting from equity market opportunities [27][28]