Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The marginal driving force of stock index futures is limited, and it remains in a volatile pattern. On January 28, the monthly contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed gains and losses. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on the trading day, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions of IF and IH increased, while those of IC and IM decreased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On January 28, IF rose 0.08%, IH fell 0.03%, IC rose 0.66%, and IM rose 0.22%. The closing prices and price - change percentages of various contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are detailed in the table [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, with decreases of 62 lots, 4488 lots, 40713 lots, and 68320 lots respectively. The total positions of IF and IH increased by 15622 lots and 3905 lots respectively, while those of IC and IM decreased by 904 lots and 15637 lots respectively [1][2]. - **Basis**: The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, showing the differences between futures prices and spot prices [1]. - **Top 20 Member Position Changes**: The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided, including net changes in some contracts [5]. 3.2. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.3. Important Drivers - **Quantitative Fund News**: There are rumors that regulatory authorities plan to implement the 'T + 3' system for the program trading of major quantitative funds, but many billion - level quantitative private equity managers said they have not received relevant requirements [6]. - **Fed Policy Expectations**: As the expectation that BlackRock's chief investment officer Rick Rieder may replace Powell grows, some futures and options traders are betting on the Fed to turn dovish. Rieder said earlier this month that the Fed's benchmark interest rate should be lowered from the current 3.5% - 3.75% range to 3% [6]. - **Stock Market Performance**: The A - share market showed narrow fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57%. The turnover of A - shares reached 2.99 trillion yuan. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.58%, reaching a 4 - and - a - half - year high [6][7].

摘要今日周四(1月29日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1229.91元/克，较前一交易日上涨1.73元，涨幅 1.66%，日内呈现强势冲高走势。当日开盘价报1209.23元/克，盘中最高触及1248.62元/克，最低下探至 1208.99元/克。 今日周四(1月29日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1229.91元/克，较前一交易日上涨1.73元，涨幅 1.66%，日内呈现强势冲高走势。当日开盘价报1209.23元/克，盘中最高触及1248.62元/克，最低下探至 1208.99元/克。 【要闻速递】 杰弗里.冈拉克，这位DoubleLine Capital的首席执行官以及被誉为"新债王"的投资者，在最近的一次采 访中表达了他对当前美联储政策的看法。他预计，在鲍威尔主席任期的剩余时间内，美联储将维持利率 不变，因为经济前景正在变得更加平衡。这一观点反映了他对美国经济和货币政策走向的深入分析。 考虑到鲍威尔作为主席仅剩下两次政策会议，冈拉克似乎对鲍威尔在任期间不会再有降息持有较为确定 的预期。他认为鲍威尔正在为美联储的双重目标——物价稳定和最大就业——之间的矛盾缓和铺路。 此外，冈拉克还重申了他对国际敞口的偏好， ...

期货市场交易指引 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 曹雪梅：Z0015756 电话：027-65777102 邮箱：caoxm2@cjsc.com.cn 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 4,151.24 | 0.27% | | 深圳成指 | 14,342.89 | 0.09% | | 沪深 300 | 4,717.99 | 0.26% | | 上证 50 | 3,060.56 | 0.27% | | 中证 500 | 8,601.16 | 0.61% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 53,358.71 | 0.05% | | 道琼指数 | 49,015.60 | 0.02% | | 标普 500 | 6,978.03 | -0.01% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,857.45 | 0.17% | | 美元指数 | 96.3455 | 0.61% | | 人民币 | 6.9453 | -0.18% | | 纽约黄金 | 5,447.80 | 5.18% | | ...

创元 期货研报指出，美联储如期暂停降息，美联储理事米兰、沃勒支持降息25个基点。美联储FOMC 声明通胀仍略显偏高，经济前景的不确定性依然高企，密切关注双重使命两方面面临的风险。美联储主 席鲍威尔表示美国经济根基稳固，失业率已出现一些企稳迹象，当前的政策立场是适当的，通胀仍略高 于目标。政策利率处于对中性利率合理估计的范围内。不会就有关传票的声明作出进一步阐述。美联储 不评论美元。无意阐述何时应再次进行降息的具体标准。加息并非任何人的基本假设。美国总统特朗普 再次对伊朗发出威胁称，下次对伊朗的打击将更加猛烈。特朗普称，一支庞大的舰队正前往伊朗，已准 备好迅速履行其使命。针对特朗普威胁，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗武装力量高度戒备，将对任何针 侵略作出迅速而果断的回应。昨日议息会议落地，短期扰动因素缓解。当前基本面因素仍然利多为主， 短期偏强运行，中长期维持年报观点不变。 ...

美国国债市场对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会反应不大，因为他并未就2026年内更长时间的 政策走向提供关键信息。美联储当天还维持利率不变，指出经济增长稳固，通胀预期稳定。 纽约时间下午3点刚过不久，国债收益率基本上在周二收盘水平的1个基点范围内，利差略有收窄。10年 期国债收益率则维持在4.24%左右。 在美联储决议公布前后以及鲍威尔新闻发布会前后，市场价格走势依然平淡。美联储声明将经济增长的 表述从"温和"上调至"稳固"，并指出失业率"已出现一些企稳迹象"，这为未来的政策走向提供了一些鹰 派暗示。 然而，与美联储会期挂钩的OIS合约当日变化不大，市场仍体现出年底前将累计降息45个基点，相当于 略低于两次25个基点的降息。市场充分消化的首次降息仍然是到7月政策会议。 在美联储决策公布前，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国"绝对没有"在干预市场支撑日元汇率， 并表示美国一贯奉行强势美元政策，这为长期国债和美元提供了一定的支撑。 纽约时间下午3：21， 2年期国债收益率报3.5834%； 10年期国债收益率报4.2492%； 30年期国债收益率报4.8581%； 5年和30年期国债收益率差报101.62个 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global markets exhibited mixed performance, with U.S. futures showing gains amid anticipation of comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while the dollar continued to experience a selloff [1] Group 1 - U.S. futures largely gained, indicating positive sentiment in the market [1] - Anticipation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments is influencing market dynamics [1] - The dollar's continued selloff is overshadowing other market movements [1]

Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price bull market has accelerated, with a year-to-date increase of over 17%, surpassing the $5000 key level without significant pullback, instead consolidating in the $5050-$5100 range [1][9] - The driving factors for this trend include escalating geopolitical risks, such as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on South Korea, tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainties surrounding Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][9] - Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows are expected to drive demand, with central bank purchases projected to reach 950 metric tons by 2026, reinforcing the price support for gold [1][9] - Despite short-term uncertainties from Federal Reserve policies, expectations for interest rate cuts this year remain unchanged, with a weaker dollar and declining real interest rates enhancing gold's attractiveness [1][9] Federal Reserve Decision Impact - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is a key event, with the market expecting rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Any divergence from this expectation could lead to significant market adjustments, although this would be seen as a temporary pullback within a long-term bullish trend [2][9] Technical Analysis of Gold - Recent price movements show a spike to $5111 before retreating below $5000, followed by a quick rebound, indicating healthy adjustments rather than a trend reversal. The strong consolidation in the $5050-$5100 range has set the stage for further upward movement [3][10] - The weekly chart indicates a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern, with a target range of $5300-$5400. The daily RSI is in the overbought zone, but the MACD remains bullish, suggesting continued upward momentum [3][10] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips, with support around $5080 and targets set at $5160-$5180, and potentially $5200 if the upward trend continues [3][10] Short-term Trading Strategy for Gold - The recommended short-term trading strategy is to primarily buy on dips, with secondary short positions. Key resistance levels are identified at $5190-$5210, while support is noted at $5140-$5120 [4][11] Oil Market Analysis - As of January 28, WTI crude oil is trading around $62.60 per barrel, having risen nearly 3% due to winter storms impacting U.S. oil production and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. However, there was a slight pullback to around $60.50 per barrel, indicating a need for technical correction after recent gains [5][12] - The market is currently balancing between fundamental support and expectations of supply recovery, with estimates showing a reduction of up to 2 million barrels per day in U.S. production due to winter storms [5][12] Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have entered a consolidation phase after reaching $54.80, with a bullish medium-term outlook. However, short-term trends show a potential shift as prices have recently fallen below key moving averages [6][13] - The trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels at $64.0-$65.0 and support levels at $61.0-$60.0 [6][13]

瑞士Vontobel全球公司债主管Christian Hantel表示，当前美国经济前景依然乐观，经济持续增长，劳动 力市场虽然略显疲软但已趋于稳定。通胀率仍高于美联储的目标水平，这使得近期降息缺乏充分依据。 投资者应将关注点转向3月和6月的FOMC会议，视其为潜在的政策调整窗口。但如果经济形势需要，这 些调整也可能推迟到2026年下半年进行。市场将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔释放的任何关于美联储对进 一步宽松政策的开放态度信号。但就目前而言，美联储谨慎行事、逐次会议决策的方式似乎将继续保 持。 ...

the state atiowers® LONS 6 3 11 8 0 图 18 @ 昨夜国际贵金属市场上演惊险"过山车"：黄金与白银价格在冲破历史高位后迅速大幅回调。分析师指出，本轮"急涨急跌"是全球宏观叙事激烈博弈的直接结 果。 其深层驱动力在于"去美元化"趋势下，投资者对美元信用的疑虑促使资金涌向黄金白银等"硬通货"。同时，地缘政治风险与对美联储政策的复杂预期，共同 推升了市场的不确定性与投机情绪。白银因其在光伏、人工智能等关键工业领域不可替代的需求，叠加避险属性，波动尤为剧烈。 市场狂热已引发警示，监管机构与银行已采取措施提示风险。专家认为，长期支撑因素依然坚固，但短期技术性回调压力巨大。 wiri JF传奇: 黑檀镶嵌鲍鱼贝、蓝松石、银线、玫瑰金 and of the same of the same and in a mo || | 在这一宏观叙事驱动的波动新时代，JFLOWERS所代表的高级珠宝展现出更深层的"保值"内涵：它以黄金与顶级宝石为资产锚点，以独创设计与精湛工艺 注入艺术溢价，更以承载的情感与纪念意义构筑无价护城河。这种融合了硬核资产、永恒美学与精神寄托的价值，使其成为穿越经济周期、抵 ...

Group 1 - The core reason for the volatility in gold and silver prices is the increase in safe-haven demand due to geopolitical risks, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, and profit-taking by leveraged funds [1] - Central banks have been increasing their gold holdings for 13 consecutive months, indicating a stable long-term allocation value [1] Group 2 - Market opinions are divided, with some believing that the mid-term logic for precious metals remains unchanged and that the recent pullback presents a buying opportunity, while others warn of potential short-term declines in silver prices [2] - Major institutions like Bridgewater and BlackRock are adjusting their positions in precious metals, primarily for defensive allocation, and there are signs of accelerated hedging in COMEX gold futures [3] - The options market shows that large funds often use a strategy of "spot accumulation + futures shorting" to lock in profits, which is a professional arbitrage method [3] Group 3 - Retail investors may overlook the price tailing during contract rollovers, which can lead to increased volatility and liquidity issues, making them susceptible to being washed out [4] - Experts advise against chasing high prices or panicking, emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective and cautious allocation in gold and silver [5]