一样的行情，不一样的指导，不一样的人生。新手的特点就是不懂技术，盲目进场。他们每次交易只考虑一个问题：认为只要预判了市场涨跌就可以去做这 笔交易。这种重方向、轻位置的做法使得交易者一败涂地。其实，顺势而为的"势"跟"方向"是有很大差别的，因为市场的运动方向呈现震荡的形态运行，而 市场的趋势往往是全局性的。在我这里，我能做的是帮你合理的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意 进场，请对自己的资金负责。如果你对行情真的无法把握，可以前来找到我，多一个分析师对你来说没有任何损失，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的 事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周三（8月27日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3390.85美元/盎司附近。周二（8月26日），美国总统特朗普突然宣布解雇美 联储理事库克，理由是其在抵押贷款申请中存在"不当行为"。这一举动不仅直接挑战美联储的独立性，更瞬间点燃了市场的避险情绪。黄金价格应声飙升至 逾两周最高点，现货黄金单日上涨0.83%，收于3393.43美元/盎司，为近两周最高收盘价。与此同时，美元指数下跌0 ...

2025.08.27 本文字数：1033，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周二收高，标普500指数在英伟达与礼来股价上涨的带动下走强。尽管美国总统特朗普宣布解 雇美联储理事丽莎·库克的决定引发市场对央行独立性的忧虑，但投资者更聚焦于即将到来的降息预期 与企业财报。 截至收盘，标普500指数上涨0.41%，收于6465.94点，距离8月14日创下的收盘纪录仅一步之遥，纳斯达 克综合指数上涨0.44%，报21544.27点，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.30%，报45418.07点。标普500指数 11个板块中有7个上涨，工业板块领涨1.03%，金融板块紧随其后上涨0.76%。 大型科技股多数收高，特斯拉涨1.5%，苹果上涨0.95%，亚马逊涨0.34%，Meta涨0.11%，微软和谷歌A 则小幅回落。在周三公布季度业绩之前，英伟达上涨1.1%，市值继续支撑美股整体走势。投资者关注 其业绩能否维持人工智能相关股票的涨势。若业绩不及预期，市场担心AI概念股或出现回调。AMD收 涨2%，因券商Truist Securities将评级由"持有"上调至"买入"。 制药股方面，礼来大涨5.9%，此前公司称 ...

2025.08. 27 本文字数：1033，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周二收高，标普500指数在英伟达与礼来股价上涨的带动下走强。尽管美国总统特朗普宣布 解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克的决定引发市场对央行独立性的忧虑，但投资者更聚焦于即将到来的降息 预期与企业财报。 截至收盘，标普500指数上涨0.41%，收于6465.94点，距离8月14日创下的收盘纪录仅一步之遥， 纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.44%，报21544.27点，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.30%，报45418.07点。 标普500指数11个板块中有7个上涨，工业板块领涨1.03%，金融板块紧随其后上涨0.76%。 大型科技股多数收高，特斯拉涨1.5%，苹果上涨0.95%，亚马逊涨0.34%，Meta涨0.11%，微软和 谷歌A则小幅回落。在周三公布季度业绩之前，英伟达上涨1.1%，市值继续支撑美股整体走势。投 资者关注其业绩能否维持人工智能相关股票的涨势。若业绩不及预期，市场担心AI概念股或出现回 调。AMD收涨2%，因券商Truist Securities将评级由"持有"上调至"买入"。 制药股方面，礼来大涨5.9%，此前公 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for more "Trump-aligned" appointees, which could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts next year [1] - Following the removal announcement, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell, indicating market reactions to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future [1] Fixed Income - The report indicates a cautious approach in the convertible bond market, suggesting a reduction in exposure to high-priced targets while increasing allocations to ETFs to balance risks [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield increased from 1.745% to 1.785%, reflecting market adjustments [2] Industry Insights - Longi Green Energy's Q2 performance showed a reduction in losses, with production capacity gradually increasing, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Zhuhai Guanyu's mobile phone shipments saw significant growth, aligning with expectations, and the company is rated as a "buy" [4] - Hunan YN's profit forecast for 2025-2027 was adjusted downwards due to lithium carbonate price pressures, but the company maintains a "buy" rating based on its market position [7] - The report on Aima Technology indicates a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026, but the company is still rated as a "buy" due to its strong market position and ongoing product development [9] - The report on Yutong Bus highlights performance driven by exports, with expectations for a strong second half of 2025 [10] - The analysis of Minsheng Health indicates stable growth in traditional products and clear growth in probiotics, suggesting a positive outlook for future growth [13] - The report on Ganfeng Lithium indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, but the company is still rated as a "buy" due to its global resource layout [20] - The report on Jianghuai Automobile indicates a strategic partnership with Huawei and ongoing collaborations with other tech firms, maintaining a "buy" rating despite competitive pressures [22] - The report on Yingjia Wine suggests a focus on mid-range products, with expectations for improved performance following inventory clearance [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that market volatility is diminishing, with hedge funds and large speculators betting heavily on continued calm, leading to unprecedented short positions in the VIX [1] - The CFTC data shows that as of the week ending August 19, speculators held a net short position of 92,786 contracts in VIX futures, the highest level since September 2022 [1] - Chris Murphy from Susquehanna highlights that extreme positions may reflect market confidence or complacency, warning that unexpected market volatility could force traders to cover their positions, amplifying market turmoil [2] Group 2 - The VIX index remains below 15, recently hitting a year-to-date low, which is approximately 24% lower than the average over the past year [5] - Following Fed Chair Powell's reinforcement of September rate cut expectations at the Jackson Hole conference, U.S. stocks rebounded significantly, further lowering market fear indicators [5] - Analysts caution that historical patterns suggest that "eerie calm" in the market, combined with extreme positions, often precedes a new wave of volatility, indicating potential hidden risks beneath low volatility [5]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off of dollar assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar against the yen down 0.4% to 147.24, and the euro rising 0.3% to 1.165 [2]. - U.S. Treasury yields saw a steepening curve, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.2887% and the 30-year yield increasing by 3.3 basis points to 4.922% [2]. - U.S. stock futures declined, impacting major Asia-Pacific indices, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index down 0.2% and the Nikkei index closing down 0.97% [3]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Analysts express concerns that Trump's actions undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to a loss of credibility for the dollar as a safe investment [3][5]. - The potential for legal battles over Cook's dismissal raises questions about the future of the Federal Reserve's independence and its ability to maintain unbiased monetary policy [5][6]. Group 3: Gold Market Response - Gold prices surged to $3,386.27 per ounce, the highest since August 11, as market participants anticipate increased support for lower interest rates and hedge against long-term inflation risks [4]. Group 4: Political and Economic Perspectives - The political implications of Trump's actions are evident, with mixed reactions from lawmakers reflecting party lines, indicating the event's political nature [6]. - Economically, pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates could lead to higher long-term interest rates due to inflation expectations, countering Trump's objectives [7].

高晓峰：8.26美元走弱助推金价，黄金迎来利好环境 受降息预期影响，美元指数显着走弱，黄金的避险与保值价值获得市场重点关注。美联储主席鲍威尔近期的表态缓解了市场对通胀的忧虑，同时为贵金属营 造了有利的宏观环境，看涨情绪持续积聚。 然而短期风险依然存在。美国即将公布的核心PCE物价指数、GDP修正值等多项经济数据可能引发波动。此外，政治层面不确定性以及可能的美联储政策压 力，或将阶段性扰动金价走势。 技术面上，金价于3350关键支撑上方维持偏多格局。3390-3385区间的站稳情况将决定多头反攻力度。操作建议以支撑区域低多为主，激进者可关注3370- 3365附近尝试多单机会，稳健者则等待3355区域布局做多。 文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议， 因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，实时思路现价给出，如果你做单不顺或投资经常资金缩水，那么你可以添加高晓峰主页进行交流。早7：00┄ 次日凌晨2：00（周末也从不停歇，可供随时咨询) ...

Group 1 - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off of dollar assets and a rise in gold prices [1][4][6] - The dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar against the yen down 0.4% to 147.24, and the euro rising 0.3% to 1.165 [4][5] - Market analysts predict that Trump's actions could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to CME FedWatch [5][6] Group 2 - Cook has stated that she will not resign and plans to take necessary actions to prevent Trump's "illegal actions," asserting that he lacks the authority to dismiss her [2][8] - The potential legal battle over Cook's dismissal could test the Supreme Court's stance on the independence of the Federal Reserve, as past rulings have protected such officials from arbitrary dismissal [7][9] - Analysts express that Trump's actions could undermine the credibility of the dollar as a safe investment, which has historically been based on the Federal Reserve's independence [5][7]

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] Market Data Summary Commodities - PTA closed at 4868.00 with a weekly increase of 3.22%; Ethylene glycol closed at 4474.00 with a 1.41% increase; Palm oil closed at 9592.00 with a 1.40% increase; PVC closed at 5019.00 with a 1.31% increase; Crude oil closed at 493.60 with a 1.13% increase [2] - Silver closed at 9192.00 with a -0.13% decrease; Methanol closed at 2405.00 with a -0.29% decrease; Gold closed at 773.40 with a -0.31% decrease; Copper closed at 78690.00 with a -0.47% decrease; Aluminum closed at 20630.00 with a -0.67% decrease [2] - Corn closed at 2175.00 with a -0.68% decrease; Live pigs closed at 13840.00 with a -0.75% decrease; Iron ore closed at 770.00 with a -0.77% decrease; Soybean meal closed at 3088.00 with a -1.56% decrease; Rebar closed at 3119.00 with a -2.16% decrease [2] - Polysilicon closed at 51405.00 with a -2.53% decrease; Glass closed at 1173.00 with a -3.14% decrease; Coking coal closed at 1162.00 with a -5.53% decrease [2] A-shares - CSI 300 closed at 4378.00 with a 4.18% increase; CSI 500 closed at 6822.85 with a 3.87% increase; SSE 50 closed at 2928.61 with a 3.38% increase [2] Overseas Stocks - FTSE 100 closed at 9321.40 with a 2.00% increase; France CAC40 closed at 7969.69 with a 0.58% increase; Hang Seng Index closed at 25339.14 with a 0.27% increase; S&P 500 closed at 6466.91 with a 0.27% increase [2] - NASDAQ Index closed at 21496.53 with a -0.58% decrease; Nikkei 225 closed at 42633.29 with a -1.72% decrease [2] Bonds - China's 5-year treasury bond closed at 1.63 with a 2.21% increase; 10-year treasury bond closed at 1.77 with a 4.20% increase; 2-year treasury bond closed at 1.43 with a 1.83% increase [2] Foreign Exchange - Euro to US dollar closed at 1.17 with a 0.16% increase; US dollar central parity rate closed at 7.13 with a -0.07% decrease; US dollar index closed at 97.72 with a -0.12% decrease [2] Commodity Views Summary Macro-financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 3 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logic: Fed's dovish signal, relaxed Shanghai property purchase restrictions, expectations of further stimulus policies, large net liquidity injection by the central bank, increased trading volume, and record-high margin balance [4] - Bearish logic: Weaker-than-expected economic data, cooling effect of earnings reports, overheated small-cap stock trading, and short-term pullback risk after a rapid rise [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logic: Dovish Fed signal, lower-than-expected July social financing and credit data, and clear central bank support for market liquidity [4] - Bearish logic: Strong stock market, seasonal bond issuance peak, more sensitive stock market to Fed rate cut expectations, and limited expectation of further policy easing [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 3 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logic: Dovish Fed signal, unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, seasonal rebound in US gasoline crack spread, and potential increase in sanctions against Russia [5] - Bearish logic: Weak eurozone macroeconomic outlook, planned OPEC+ production increase in September, significant production growth in Latin American countries, and weakening crude oil contango [5] Agricultural Products Sector Palm Oil - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logic: Lower-than-expected US biodiesel exemption, slow inventory growth in Malaysia in July, low inventory entering the production cut season, and declining inventory in Indonesia [5] - Bearish logic: Call for policy reevaluation in Indonesia, rising inventory in China, short-term correction risk after a sharp rise, and increased production in Indonesia in June [5] Non-ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logic: Dovish remarks by Powell, improved macro sentiment, tight overseas mine supply, and expected increase in downstream restocking demand [6] - Bearish logic: Uncertain impact of tariffs on demand, increased non-US supply due to US copper tariff policy, stable but weak restocking demand at high prices, and increased domestic electrolytic copper production in July [6] Chemicals Sector Glass - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logic: Improved demand expectations due to property policies, traditional peak demand season in September, and stronger bottom valuation support [6] - Bearish logic: Lower spot transaction prices, high premium of the 01 contract, increasing inventory pressure, and weakening cost support [6] Precious Metals Gold - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logic: Dovish remarks by Powell, stagflation expectations in the US, and long-term de-dollarization trend [7] - Bearish logic: Market may have priced in Fed rate cut expectations, progress in trade negotiations, and lack of upward momentum in a sideways range [7] Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logic: Eighth round of coke price increase, high iron production, stricter safety inspections, and a coal mine accident [7] - Bearish logic: Increased Mongolian coal imports, weakening downstream procurement, expected production cuts in August, and opening of Australian coal import window [7]

Group 1: Gold Market - The dovish speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole conference has significantly increased expectations for future interest rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut rising above 90% [2] - New York Fed President Williams stated that the era of low neutral interest rates in the U.S. is not over, contrary to some Fed officials' views that neutral rates are rising due to inflation [2] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes that the dovish stance from Powell supports the likelihood of gold prices rising further, with short-term support at $3,363 and resistance at $3,392 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's oil exports fell by 15.8% year-on-year in Q3, with export revenue dropping from 74.7% to 67.9%, although non-oil exports increased by 17.8% in Q2, offsetting some losses [3] - Attacks on Russian energy facilities by Ukraine have disrupted oil exports, providing short-term support for oil prices [3] - Oil prices reached a high of $65 but then retreated; if prices do not recover above $64.50, the potential for a rebound may end, while a breakthrough above $65 could target $67.50 [3] Group 3: Dollar Index - President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as Trump's nominee may strengthen his control over the Fed [4] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted mixed economic data, indicating potential action in September, while Boston Fed President Collins is open to rate cuts due to tariff policies and a slowing labor market [4] - The dollar index experienced a quick drop but rebounded, with expectations of trading within the 97.50-99 range [4] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a continuous decline since last week, with the support level at 42,500 breached, indicating that the downward trend is likely to continue [6] - Short-term resistance is noted at 42,650, while support is observed at the 42,000 level [6] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July, with the previous bullish trend halted, and the market has been maintaining a weak rebound [7] - The focus for this week is on the resistance level at $4.50; if breached, a larger rebound may occur, while support is at $4.42, with a potential drop to $4.37 if this level is broken [7]