Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption through various new proposals [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - The reasonable growth range for China's economy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.5%, considering the current economic scale and potential growth rate [2][3]. - The plan highlights the need for a flexible approach to economic growth, with a lower limit to ensure employment and a higher limit to prevent inflation and promote structural adjustments [3]. Group 2: Enhancing Resident Consumption Rate - To address the low resident consumption rate, solutions should be sought from both the income and supply sides, including expanding the middle-income group and increasing public service spending [3][4]. - Three key actions are necessary to enhance resident consumption: increasing the share of new consumption types, enriching consumption scenarios, and ensuring the implementation of national policies to stimulate consumption [4]. Group 3: Real Estate and Automotive Markets - The plan proposes removing unreasonable restrictions on automotive and housing consumption, as both sectors have significant economic impacts and can stimulate related industries [5][6]. - The real estate market is expected to see slight growth over the next five years, with its stability being crucial for consumer confidence and financial system stability [7]. Group 4: Role of Consumption, Investment, and Exports - Consumption is projected to play a dual role as both a "ballast" and a "main engine" for economic growth, with expectations that its contribution to GDP growth will exceed 60% [12][13]. - Investment will shift focus from total volume to structural optimization, supporting high-quality development in sectors like high-end manufacturing and technology [13]. - Exports will serve as a stabilizer, maintaining their importance due to China's comprehensive industrial system, despite potential fluctuations [12][14]. Group 5: Service Industry and Market Opening - The emphasis on expanding the service industry as a key area for market opening indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing service sector competitiveness and internationalization [20][21]. - The growing middle-income group and the increasing share of services in GDP highlight the need for improved service quality and management practices to meet consumer demands [21].

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for financial institutions to enhance their services to support the high-quality development of the real economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Financial Institutions' Role - Financial institutions are urged to improve the precision, adaptability, and accessibility of their services, focusing on key areas and weak links in the real economy [2] - Regional banks should adjust their credit and customer strategies towards intelligent, green, and integrated directions, accelerating digital transformation to create competitive advantages [2] - The futures and securities industries are presented with development opportunities, with the futures sector encouraged to implement scenario-based services to enhance price discovery and risk management [2] Group 2: Risk Management - Financial institutions must maintain a risk baseline while serving the real economy, employing early identification and warning systems for risk management [3] - City commercial banks should respect risks but not fear development, balancing risk and return through technology empowerment and compliance culture [3] - The futures industry should establish integrated risk warning mechanisms to preemptively address systemic risks [3] Group 3: Innovative Financial Products and Services - The "five major articles" of financial work emphasize technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance as core strategies for financial institutions [4] - Construction Bank has developed a comprehensive technology finance service system, including products that cater to different growth stages of enterprises [4] - Regional banks are launching tailored products to address local needs, such as order financing and pollution rights pledge loans, to support small and micro enterprises [4][5] Group 4: Industry Empowerment - Financial institutions are transitioning from traditional credit providers to industry enablers, particularly in the context of the Xiong'an New Area's development [4] - Supply chain financial products are being utilized to extend services to upstream and downstream SMEs, integrating various financial services [5] - Futures and securities firms are playing a crucial role in managing risks within the industrial chain, responding to the increasing demand for risk management from enterprises [6]

期货研究报告|股指及商品策略专题 2025-11-17 股指、贵金属观点与策略 研究院 联系人 汪雅航 wangyahang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03099648 投资咨询号：Z0019185 蔡劭立 0755-23887993 caishaoli@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 高聪 021-60828524 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 股指：近期有关部门发布"十五五"规划一些细分领域的指导文件，权益市场长期运行主 线正逐步清晰，长牛行情的趋势无需质疑。短期来看，我国十月经济数据仍在磨底阶段， 中日关系紧张，美国流动性危机尚未过去，受上述海内外多重因素影响，指数呈宽幅震 荡消化态势，市场操作难度依然较高，建议继续通过股指期货进行风险对冲。 黄金：2025-11-14 当周，贵金属延续震荡走势。利率路径方面，美联储内部存在显著分 歧：多名美联储理事释放偏鹰信号；而与此对应的是，美联储理事米兰表示，近期的经 济数据支持了美联储 ...

室 坑车工 2025 年 11 月 17 日 时代小说书 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 册 分歧污 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 关注军贸及消耗类武器, 配置周期 国防军工行业周报（2025年第 47 周） 本期投资提示: 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 2.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 1.53%，同期上证综指下 ● 跌 0.18%, 沪深 300 下跌 1.08%, 创业板指下跌 3.01%, 申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 2.15%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 27 位。2、从我们构建 的军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参 ...

Core Points - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session as a major political task for the current and future periods [3][4][15] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is described as extraordinary, with significant achievements in various sectors despite challenges such as the pandemic [4][6] - The meeting outlined the main goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on enhancing the capital's functions, high-quality development, and improving the quality of life for residents [8][10] Group 1: Economic and Social Development - The meeting highlighted the need for Beijing to play a representative role in the overall modernization process, emphasizing strategic determination and confidence among party members [6][7] - Key objectives for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include improving the capital's service capabilities, economic strength, and international influence by 2035 [8][10] - The meeting stressed the importance of high-quality economic development, innovation, and deepening reform and opening up to enhance development momentum [11][12] Group 2: Governance and Urban Development - The meeting called for a focus on optimizing the capital's functions and enhancing the well-being of residents by addressing urgent social issues [8][10] - It emphasized the need for effective governance in a mega-city context, promoting a modern, livable, and resilient urban environment [14][15] - The meeting also discussed the importance of cultural development and historical preservation as part of the capital's identity [12][13] Group 3: Environmental and Safety Measures - The meeting underscored the commitment to environmental protection and the construction of a green, low-carbon city [14] - It highlighted the need for a comprehensive safety system to ensure social stability and resilience against risks [14][15] - The meeting called for a focus on improving public services and infrastructure to support urban and rural integration [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ping An Rongyi (Jiangsu) Financing Guarantee Co., Ltd. Chongqing Branch, emphasizes the integration of party leadership and financial services to support the high-quality economic development of Chongqing, with a guarantee balance of 2.408 billion yuan, including over 1.630 billion yuan for small and micro enterprises [1][5]. Group 1: Party Leadership and Development - The company positions party building as a "red engine" for development, enhancing grassroots party organizations and guiding employees to understand key elements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - Regular specialized learning and practical activities are conducted to align party building with business objectives, establishing a dual-driven model of "Party Building + Business" [3]. Group 2: Technological Empowerment - The company leverages AI technology across its business processes, achieving 100% coverage with AI smart quality inspection and enabling 95% of users to secure loans within 1.3 hours through the upgraded "Xingyun 2.0" intelligent loan system [4]. - A "full lifecycle service system" is established to follow up from capital injection to capacity upgrading, combining online efficiency with offline precision [4]. Group 3: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The company targets specific sectors like tourism and hotel management, responding to the increasing financing needs of small and micro enterprises, particularly in light of the tourism industry's growth [5]. - A case study highlights a small business owner in tourism who received 1.2 million yuan in financing on the same day through the "Micro Business Loan" product, addressing her cash flow challenges [5]. - Another case illustrates a hotel operator who accessed 680,000 yuan for transforming his hotel into an esports-themed venue, facilitated by the company's proactive service and innovative financing solutions [6]. Group 4: Contribution to Economic Development - The company aligns its services with national strategic deployments, using professional financial services to create value for clients and contribute to societal development, thereby supporting Chongqing's economic growth [6].

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report explores investment opportunities in the "14th Five-Year Plan" from two dimensions: strategic directions indicated by planning suggestions and historical focus industries from previous five-year plans [1] - The three main policy lines of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are summarized as "Development," "Livelihood," and "Security," with "Development" focusing on advanced manufacturing and new productivity, "Livelihood" emphasizing domestic demand expansion, and "Security" reinforcing national defense and key technology areas [1][2] - The report indicates that while certain industry themes may create long-term excess returns if performance continues to validate, the likelihood of sustained excess returns throughout the entire five-year planning cycle is low [3] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, breaking down economic and social development goals into three main lines: "Development," "Livelihood," and "Security," with 12 key tasks identified [2][8] - The "Development" line focuses on enhancing traditional industries, scaling new pillar industries, and ensuring supportive industries for high-quality growth, with a strong emphasis on technological self-reliance [9][10] - The "Livelihood" line aims to address issues related to population structure changes and economic development, focusing on expanding domestic demand and improving residents' income levels to boost consumption in health, education, and elderly care sectors [11][12] - The "Security" line highlights the importance of national defense and ecological safety, with a focus on military modernization, key resource security, and the development of critical technologies [14][17] Group 3 - The investment guidance indicates that key themes and newly emphasized industries may not achieve significant excess returns over the entire five-year cycle, citing examples from previous plans where certain sectors underperformed [15][16] - The report notes that while industries like new energy vehicles have shown potential for long-term excess returns, the possibility of sustained excess returns throughout the five-year planning cycle remains limited due to over-optimistic pricing and cyclical nature of industries [15]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhongke Xingtou (SH 688568) announced the convening of its board meeting to discuss a procurement contract with a subsidiary, indicating ongoing business activities and potential growth opportunities [1] - For the first half of 2025, Zhongke Xingtou's revenue composition is as follows: 53.46% from geographic information in the civilian sector, 27.46% from special fields, 14.34% from aerospace measurement and control, 4.73% from low-altitude economy, and 0.01% from other businesses, showcasing a diversified revenue stream [1] - As of the report, Zhongke Xingtou has a market capitalization of 33.1 billion yuan, reflecting its valuation in the market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [23]. Core Insights - The military industry is entering an upward cycle as per the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations, with expectations of performance recovery in Q4 2025, driven by increased military trade and order fulfillment [3][4]. - The report highlights that the military trade landscape is evolving due to rising global geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased demand for military products, particularly in the Middle East and Asia [3]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in next-generation equipment, unmanned/anti-unmanned weapons, and information/intelligent systems, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from these trends [3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 2.15%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index decreased by 1.53%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.18% and the CSI 300 by 1.08% [4][11]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's performance ranked 27th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, indicating a relatively poor performance compared to other sectors [4]. - The report lists the top five gainers in the defense sector: Tian'ao Electronics (up 12.63%), Aerospace Development (up 8.54%), *ST Dali (up 7.1%), Aerospace Intelligence Equipment (up 5.72%), and 712 (up 4.21%) [11][12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 76.94, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 65.32% since January 2014 and 91.95% since January 2019 [12][13]. - The report indicates a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector is experiencing a significant rise due to increasing geopolitical risks, with the aerospace index leading the gains among military-themed indices [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Catalysts - The military sector's strength is primarily driven by geopolitical factors, including recent provocative statements from Japan and renewed large-scale airstrikes by Russia on Ukraine, which have heightened global uncertainty [4]. - The upcoming maiden flight of China's reusable rocket "Zhuque-3" in mid-November is also a notable event that could attract market attention [4]. Group 2: Long-term Catalysts - The "14th Five-Year Plan" laid the groundwork for the military industry, achieving significant milestones in weapon systems development, transitioning from research to small-scale production [8]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on large-scale production and systematic combat capabilities, indicating a shift towards mass production of previously developed equipment [9]. - The emphasis on "high-quality transformation" in the military sector will drive demand for advanced technologies and materials, particularly in critical areas like high-end chips and aerospace engines [11][12]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The military sector has shown a recovery trend, with a reported 16.99% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 14.01% increase in net profit for the third quarter of 2025 [15]. - Various sub-sectors, including defense information, aerospace, and commercial space, are also showing signs of recovery [15]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - Institutional investment in the military sector remains at historical lows, with a total market value of 101.36 billion yuan, ranking 14th among primary industries [21]. - There is a notable structural adjustment within institutional holdings, with active funds reducing their total positions while passive funds maintain stable increases [22]. Group 5: Strategic Opportunities - The military trade sector is expected to provide substantial growth opportunities, with exports of military equipment showing significant increases, such as a 30.6% year-on-year growth in September 2025 [20]. - The diversification of weapon procurement sources by various countries presents a strategic opportunity for China's military exports [20]. Group 6: Focus Areas - The aerospace index is highlighted as a key area of focus, with the aerospace ETF (159227) showing significant inflows and a strong performance in the market [34]. - The ETF's top holdings reflect the core supply chain of the aerospace industry, aligning with national strategic needs in defense and aerospace [34].