来源：市场资讯 来源：银华基金投顾 核心观点 1、美国降息预期成为国际资金当前交易的逻辑，在降息预期下，美股、欧股、新兴市场股市、美债黄 金开始反弹，但往后看，美债特别是中长期美债、黄金、A股美股受益美联储降息的确定性更强，而美 股可能走向分化，龙头科技核心资产由于强劲的营收和利润增长或仍有关注价值，但其他传统行业财报 走弱以及后续关税冲击和衰退预期下，其他非核心科技龙头美股可能走弱。原油在衰退预期加上增产 下，供需两侧承压。 2、美国降息对国内政策空间构成利好，且美国降息美元走弱或带动人民币汇率对一揽子货币走弱，从 而对我国出口构成一定支撑。 3、多资产投资者在可投资的范围内，后续可以继续重视A股港股、美债、黄金的价值，同时关注一定 比例的美股核心科技，构建多资产组合实现组合反脆弱。 上周五美国劳工就业数据显示，7月经济仅创造了7.3万个就业岗位。同时，5月和6月的就业增长总数被 下调了25.8万个，数据的大幅下修带动通胀预期大幅回落，美联储降息概率大增，同时在周一，美国公 布的其他数据包括6月耐用品新增订单季调后环比下跌9.37%，德国方面，公布的8月Sentix投资信心指 数从前值的-0.4下降到-12 ...

GTC泽汇观察认为，尽管美股连续下跌令全球市场承压，但亚太股市在本周中段仍呈现温和反弹，反映出投资者在不确定环境中对区域性基本面的相对信 心。日本、澳大利亚及香港等主要市场均小幅上扬，显示出市场情绪趋于谨慎乐观。 当前市场关注的焦点主要集中在两方面：一是美国企业财报季的整体表现，二是美国经济数据对未来货币政策的影响。尤其是近期服务业数据的疲软，引发 了市场对美国经济增长放缓的担忧。不过，GTC泽汇注意到，这一迹象也使得市场对美联储9月降息的预期迅速升温，成为部分资产价格获得支撑的重要因 素。 GTC泽汇：关注美联储政策走向 GTC泽汇分析认为，从数据层面看，美国S&P 500指数虽回落，但仍处于历史高位附近，仅比纪录高点低约1.4%。这说明尽管短期调整压力存在，但投资者 对美联储可能采取宽松措施保持高度关注。一旦利率下调落地，将有望重新激活资金风险偏好，推动美股再度走强，进而带动亚太市场同步受益。 在企业层面，日本多家核心企业即将公布财报，包括汽车及电子巨头，这些数据将进一步揭示全球制造与消费链条的运行现状。GTC泽汇认为，若相关企业 展现出较强的业绩韧性，将为市场注入新的信心，有助于抵消美股波动带来的外部压 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 5% in 2024, followed by a slight decline to 4.9% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 due to tariff impacts and diminishing policy effects[64] - China's economic recovery is characterized by fluctuations, with GDP growth expected to rise from 4.6% in Q3 2024 to 5.4% in Q1 2025, before declining again[64] Stock Market Performance - In the economic contraction phase, stocks generally decline significantly, with essential consumption, energy, utilities, and healthcare sectors outperforming, while real estate and technology sectors lag behind[18] - During the economic recovery phase, stocks in discretionary consumption, real estate, technology, and materials sectors show the highest gains, while utilities and essential consumption sectors underperform[18] Sector Analysis - In the economic expansion phase, technology, finance, and real estate sectors tend to outperform, while utilities, essential consumption, and healthcare sectors underperform[18] - Average annual returns for the consumer discretionary sector during the recovery phase are 40.8%, with a market outperformance rate of 64.5%[15] Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators include consumer confidence, manufacturing orders, and employment rates, which are closely linked to stock market performance[28][29] - The U.S. consumer confidence index has a direct correlation with the S&P 500 index, indicating that increased consumer confidence typically leads to stock market gains[27] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy is influenced by the Taylor rule, which incorporates inflation rates and unemployment levels to determine the federal funds rate[43] - High fiscal deficit rates combined with low household savings rates contribute to high inflation and interest rates in the U.S. economy[46] Currency and International Relations - The U.S. dollar index is expected to fluctuate, potentially dropping below 95, with a slight rebound anticipated towards the end of the year[55] - The relationship between the U.S.-China nominal GDP growth rates and interest rate differentials will influence the USD/CNY exchange rate, with projections suggesting a slight appreciation of the yuan[114] Investment Strategy - The S&P 500 is forecasted to rise by 3% in the second half of the year and 8.5% for the entire year, with a favorable outlook on sectors such as information technology, communication services, finance, healthcare, and essential consumption[50]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1] Market Reaction - The announcement led to an immediate spike in bond yields due to increased holding costs for new bonds, followed by a rapid reversal as existing bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a significant drop in yields [1] - The market experienced volatility as traders quickly shifted strategies, indicating a rapid change in sentiment [1] Institutional Insights - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a medium to short-term impact on the bond market, with a potential widening of the yield spread between new and existing bonds, leading to a buying spree for existing bonds [2][4] - The structural advantage of existing bonds over new issues is expected to influence investor behavior, with a preference for older bonds due to their tax benefits [2][3] Investment Strategy Adjustments - Fund companies are adjusting redemption limits for bond funds in response to the new tax policy, indicating a proactive approach to manage potential market fluctuations [4] - Institutions are exploring alternative investment strategies, including a shift towards credit bonds, REITs, and equities, as the attractiveness of newly issued bonds diminishes [5][7] Tax Implications - The new tax policy primarily affects interest income, while public funds retain their tax advantages on capital gains, potentially increasing demand for public funds over bank proprietary products [6] - The tax changes are expected to have a limited impact on the overall asset allocation of banks and insurance companies, which continue to view government bonds as essential components of their portfolios [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity, leading to significant market reactions and shifts in investment strategies [1][2][3]. Market Reaction - The announcement caused an immediate spike in bond yields due to increased holding costs for new bonds, followed by a rapid decline in yields as institutional investors rushed to acquire existing bonds benefiting from the tax exemption [1][2]. - The volatility in the bond market reflects a quick shift in investor sentiment, with many traders expressing concerns over the rapid changes in market dynamics [1]. Investment Strategy Shifts - Institutions are expected to favor existing bonds over new issues due to the tax advantages, potentially leading to a widening of the yield spread between old and new bonds and a surge in demand for existing bonds [2][4]. - The tax policy change is seen as providing more diverse strategic options for investors, with the bond market's performance likely influenced by fundamental economic conditions and monetary policy [2][4]. Impact on Credit Bonds and Other Assets - The restoration of VAT on interest income from government bonds diminishes their tax advantage over credit bonds, which may lead to a narrowing of credit spreads as the tax premium on credit bonds decreases [3][7]. - As the attractiveness of government bonds declines, some funds may shift towards credit bonds, equities, and other asset classes like REITs, indicating a potential reallocation of capital within the market [7][8]. Fund Management Adjustments - Fund companies are adjusting redemption limits for bond funds in response to the new tax policy, anticipating changes in investor behavior and market volatility [4][6]. - The overall impact on public funds is expected to be limited, with the potential for stable returns in bond and money market funds despite short-term fluctuations [4][6]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term effects of the tax policy change on the bond market are considered moderate, with expectations that the overall configuration of bond investments will remain stable, particularly for institutional investors who continue to view government bonds as essential components of their portfolios [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The public FOF (Fund of Funds) market has seen a significant increase in new product issuance and scale in 2023, highlighted by the occurrence of a "one-day sell-out" for new products, indicating strong investor demand [2][3]. Group 1: Product Issuance and Performance - As of August 5, 2023, a total of 36 public FOF products have been issued this year, with a total issuance of 33.04 billion units, marking a substantial increase compared to previous years [2]. - The average return for public FOFs this year is 6.21%, with some products achieving net value increases of over 20% [3]. - Nearly 80% of public FOFs have restored their net value to above 1 yuan, with 12 products showing returns exceeding 30% over the past year [3]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Demand - The demand for stable investments is rising due to declining interest rates and the trend towards net value-based financial products, which is benefiting public FOFs [4]. - The importance of asset allocation is emphasized, as diversified portfolios can help investors mitigate risks and enhance long-term returns [4]. - Leading fund companies are evolving their asset allocation strategies, with a focus on providing comprehensive asset allocation solutions rather than merely selecting funds [4]. Group 3: Sales and Service Innovations - Sales strategies are crucial for promoting allocation-type products, with banks like China Merchants Bank enhancing their asset allocation service systems [5]. - The introduction of customized FOF products based on asset allocation logic aims to cater to clients with varying risk preferences [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - FOF fund managers generally have a positive outlook on equity assets, although their specific allocation strategies may vary [6].

Core Insights - The performance of FOF (Fund of Funds) products has been impressive this year, with over 90% achieving positive returns [1][4] - The asset allocation approach is described as having "no optimal solution," emphasizing the need for a stable analytical framework and diversified investments to avoid common pitfalls like "chasing gains and cutting losses" [1][3][6] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The manager, Tang Jun, advocates for a multi-faceted asset allocation strategy that includes objective standards and diversified returns to mitigate risks associated with market expectations [1][6] - Tang Jun's experience in quantitative investment has shaped his ability to identify market factors and adjust asset allocations dynamically based on market conditions [2][4] - The current allocation strategy has shifted towards A-shares, reflecting a responsive adjustment to market trends, with a notable increase in A-share allocation compared to Hong Kong stocks [4][5] Group 2: Market Insights and Tactical Adjustments - The positive performance of FOF products is attributed to effective diversification strategies, particularly during stable market conditions [4] - Despite uncertainties in external environments, domestic policy support is expected to provide a solid foundation for the A-share market, leading to a stable and potentially strong performance [5] - Tang Jun has actively engaged in tactical allocations within sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and military industries, capitalizing on growth trends and market opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Behavioral Insights and Investor Guidance - The common mistake of "chasing gains and cutting losses" is highlighted, with recommendations for establishing an analytical framework based on objective standards to guide investment decisions [6][7] - Understanding "expectation differences" is crucial for avoiding impulsive trading decisions, as market consensus often serves as a contrary indicator [7] - Investors are advised to differentiate between returns driven by style beta and alpha when selecting funds, which aligns with Tang Jun's quantitative research background [7]

Employment Data Insights - In July, the U.S. non-farm payroll increased by 74,000, falling short of the expected 110,000[4] - The non-farm payroll figures for May and June were significantly revised down, with May's figure adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000[4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% from May to July, while hourly wages increased year-on-year from 3.8% to 3.9%[4] Data Quality Concerns - The response rate for employment data surveys has declined, with May's non-farm payroll survey response rate at 42.9%, down from 59% pre-pandemic[5] - The response rate for unemployment rate surveys was 67.4%, compared to 82.3% before the pandemic[5] Federal Reserve Insights - The number of dissenting votes in the July Federal Reserve meeting reached the highest level in 32 years, with two members opposing the decision to keep interest rates unchanged[10] - The overall sentiment remains cautious regarding inflation, with concerns about high tariffs impacting inflation levels[12] Market Expectations - Despite disappointing employment data, investor expectations for short-term inflation remain upward, with the 2-year inflation swap dropping from 3% to 2.9%[16] - The broad dollar speculative net short positions decreased to 20,000 contracts, the lowest level since April, reflecting a reduction of over 50% from five weeks prior[12] Equity Risk Premium - As of August 1, the equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 5.2%, which is significantly below the 16-year average by more than one standard deviation, indicating potential for valuation uplift[17] Bond Market Insights - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was 18 basis points as of August 1, which is 48 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22] - The 3-month dollar-yen basis swap was at -19.4 basis points, indicating a more relaxed offshore dollar financing environment[24] Commodity Indicators - The copper-gold price ratio fell to 2.9, while the offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 7.2, indicating a divergence in signals between RMB and copper trends[29] Stock vs. Bond Performance - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds was 24.9 as of August 1, which is below the average level over the past 16 years, suggesting a return to mean performance between equities and fixed income[31]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the key level of 3600 points for the first time this year, indicating a rise in equity asset investment enthusiasm, but the continuous increase raises concerns about potential overvaluation [1] Group 1: "Fixed Income +" Strategy - "Fixed Income +" consists of two parts: a solid foundation of fixed income assets and an additional allocation to equities and convertible bonds to seek higher returns [3] - The strategy can be categorized into three types based on equity allocation: - Low-volatility "Fixed Income +": Equity allocation under 10%, focusing on controlling drawdowns and volatility [4] - Medium-volatility "Fixed Income +": Equity allocation between 5%-20%, balancing risk and return [5] - High-volatility "Fixed Income +": Equity allocation between 20%-30%, aiming for higher returns with increased volatility [5] - For low-risk investors or those inexperienced in equity investments, starting with "Fixed Income +" may align better with their risk tolerance, offering a stable return from fixed income and potential upside from equity exposure [5] Group 2: Selection of "Fixed Income +" Products - Investors should consider their risk preferences alongside the product positioning, historical performance, investment strategies, and volatility characteristics when selecting "Fixed Income +" products [7] - Example: Yinhua Fund has established a series of "Fixed Income +" products with varying strategies to meet diverse investor needs, such as: - Yinhua Enhanced Income Bond: - Equity allocation: 17.09% in stocks and 23.33% in convertible bonds - Performance: 9.46% growth over the past year, with a cumulative return of 131.64% since inception, ranking in the top 12% of its category [7] - Yinhua Vision Bond: - Equity allocation: 15.28% in stocks and 11.70% in convertible bonds - Performance: 7.50% growth over the past year, ranking in the top quarter of its category [7] Group 3: Investment Focus and Strategies - The investment strategy emphasizes a scientific multi-strategy management framework to achieve a favorable risk-return ratio, focusing on growth-oriented stocks and balanced convertible bonds [10] - The fund manager indicates a positive outlook for equity assets in the third quarter, focusing on sectors with improving fundamentals, stable dividend expectations, and industries with potential future profitability trends [11][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The new fiscal and tax policies announced on July 31 will have a limited impact on the net profits of insurance companies, with a short-term effect estimated to be within 1% [4][6] - Insurance companies can mitigate the impact of the new VAT on newly issued government bonds through asset allocation strategies, such as shifting towards high-dividend equities [6] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Impact of New Tax Policies**: The announcement to restore VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, will not significantly affect the actual revenue and profits of insurance companies due to the continued exemption from corporate income tax [4][5] - **Quantitative Analysis**: Using China Pacific Insurance as an example, the report estimates that the VAT payment on new bonds could amount to approximately 2.3 million yuan, which is about 0.51% of the net profit for the year [5][6] - **Long-term Projections**: In an extreme scenario where all bonds are new after ten years, the VAT payment could rise to 23.5 million yuan, representing 5.2% of the net profit, but the financial impact remains manageable as companies can adjust their asset allocations [5][6] - **Recommended Companies**: The report recommends companies with ideal asset-liability duration matching, such as China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, as well as New China Life for its favorable equity returns [6]