5 月债市行情如何演绎？20250506 摘要 • 贸易战和汇率关税升级为债市带来潜在机会，但具体影响需持续观察。同 时，流动性逐步稳定，资金价格中枢下行，机构投资收益修复，债市整体 呈现修复态势。 • 政策层面，广义财政加降准是主要政策组合，结构性货币政策降息确定性 高，降准可期，但政策利率降息需等待。当前策略应偏谨慎，收益率曲线 若下行，应从短端入手。 • 基本面显示外部冲击影响逐步兑现，新出口订单回落。政策面财政发力低 于预期，但货币层面仍有宽松信号，5 月份或有债市利好信息。 • 市场打破僵局难度大，前期已定价部分利好。无明确降息预期下，降准对 债市定价增量有限。关注 4 月底回购操作及金融主管部门会议。 • 未来货币政策展望乐观，MLF 净投放不能替代总量宽松信号，降准概率仍 高。中长期流动性仍有投放必要性和空间，4 月初以来资金价格中枢明显 下行。 • 降准可使短期债券收益率曲线下压，但难形成长期系统性偏离。5 月政府 债券发行量大，流动性相对平衡。降准后资金价格更稳，中枢略有下行。 • 五一假期前后债市回暖，各类债券收益率上涨。信用债市场存在补涨机会， 同期限信用债收益率下行幅度与利率相近。中等 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 05 月 06 日 本周新疆超长城投债的成交量较高，达 14.7 亿元。河北、山东等地超长城投债 成交量较上周下降较多，较上周分别下降 8.7 亿元、4.9 亿元，新疆、四川超长 城投债成交量较上周有所上升。另外，山东、江苏等地超长城投债成交量较前 两周下降较多，北京、江苏等地超长城投债成交量较前三周下降较多。 成交期限方面，本周超长城投债成交久期达 8.68 年。从变动来看，本周辽宁超 长城投债成交久期拉长较多，与上周相比增加 0.12 年，安徽超长城投债成交久 期缩短较多，与上周相比减少 14.03 年。 成交价格方面，本周辽宁、山东城投债成交收益率较高，超过 3%。从变动来看， 与上周相比，本周山东、北京超长城投债成交收益率较上周上升较大，较上周 分别上升 38bp 和 32bp，本周福建、浙江超长城投债成交收益率较上周下降幅 度较大，较上周分别下降 21bp 和 16bp。另外，新疆超长城投债低估值成交占 比较上周下降 86 个百分点，河北、湖北等地低估值成交占比较上周上升较多。 三、超长产业债：公用事业、石油石化行业成交量上升，商贸零售、煤炭行业 低估值 ...

摘要 折价幅度靠前的 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"24 恒廷 03"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中，"23 产融 09"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"22 万科 06"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨 幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"24 农行二级资本债 02B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期限 | 估值价格 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 当日估值 | 票面利率 | 隐含 | 主体 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (年) | 偏离(%) | (元) | 偏离(bp) | 收益(%) | (%) | 评级 | 评级 | | | 24 恒廷 03 | 4.57 | -0.27 | 100.53 | 6.19 | 2.45 | 2.58 | AA | AA | 2 ...

在重磅新品上市的推动下，信用债ETF不仅迎来产品数量的大幅扩容，整体规模也迈向新台阶。 据Wind数据统计，截至4月30日，全市场信用债ETF规模突破1054亿元，首次突破千亿元大关。与此同时，信用债ETF规模 占债券ETF比重也从去年年末的31.08%提升至目前的42.71%，占据近半壁江山。 多位业内人士表示，在无风险利率下行的大背景下，信用债在收益上相比利率债品种具备一定优势，受到各类型投资者的 欢迎。今年实施的允许符合一定条件的信用债ETF产品试点开展交易所债券通用质押式回购业务，也在加速助推信用债 ETF的发展。 信用债ETF总规模突破千亿元大关 2013年3月5日，国内首只债券ETF——国泰上证5年期债券ETF成立，拉开了国内债券ETF市场发展的序幕。起步之初，债 券ETF市场发展相对缓慢，直到2024年5月17日才突破千亿元大关，最近一年发展加速，总规模在今年2月7日站在2000亿元 上方。 更为值得一提的是，时隔4年多，债券ETF中重要的细分品类——信用债ETF在今年1月迎来大扩容，8只基准做市公司债 （信用债）ETF密集发行，多只基金更是"顶格"完成30亿元募集目标，合计募集规模高达217. ...

Core Viewpoint - The total scale of credit bond ETFs in China has surpassed 100 billion yuan for the first time, indicating a significant increase in market interest and investment in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth - As of April 29, the total scale of credit bond ETFs reached 100.37 billion yuan, nearly doubling from 54 billion yuan at the end of last year [2]. - The rapid growth of credit bond ETFs is closely related to the issuance of the first batch of eight benchmark market-making corporate bond ETFs at the beginning of the year, which attracted over 245 billion yuan in net inflows [2][3]. - Hai Fu Tong's three products account for over 50% of the total scale, with individual scales of 32.59 billion yuan, 16.19 billion yuan, and 4.88 billion yuan respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Product Development - The first batch of benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs primarily tracks indices with AAA-rated issuers, catering to investors seeking low-risk credit bond investments [3]. - There is a strong market demand for credit bond ETFs, and future developments may include expanding the product range to include green bonds and technology innovation bonds [3]. - The industry is also focusing on enhancing investor education to improve market participation and understanding of credit bond ETFs [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The foundation for a bull market in the bond market remains unchanged, although increased volatility is expected [3]. - Credit bonds are likely to follow the bullish trend of interest rate bonds, but the absolute yield levels are currently at historical lows, limiting the potential for significant yield declines [3]. - Analysts suggest that while the market may experience fluctuations, the overall direction remains favorable, and investors should consider opportunities in high-quality credit bonds [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of April 28, 2025, in the stock of credit bonds, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. The yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, while the yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees. In financial bonds, the yields of most varieties have increased, with leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools having relatively high valuation yields and spreads [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 General Situation of Stock Credit Bonds - As of April 28, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds in the stock of credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, especially those of varieties over 1 year, with adjustments generally within 10bp. The yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased by 10.2bp and 4.3bp respectively. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees. In financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads are leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. Compared with last week, the yields of most financial bond varieties have increased [3][8]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.6%. Urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are found in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. In other regions, the spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other places are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the performance of public urban investment bonds has differentiated among different terms. The average decline of varieties within 1 year is close to 0.2BP, while the yields of medium - and long - term bonds have mostly increased. The varieties with relatively large yield declines include non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Guizhou with a term of 2 - 3 years, perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Shaanxi within 1 year, non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Yunnan with a term of 1 - 2 years, and non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Liaoning within 1 year [2][13]. 3.2.2 Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 3.1%. Varieties with yields higher than 4.5% are found in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou, Yunnan, and Liaoning. The spreads in Shaanxi, Hebei, Gansu and other places are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the proportion of yield increases of private urban investment bonds is relatively high, but there are also many cases of yield declines in varieties within 1 year. The varieties with relatively large yield declines include non - perpetual bonds of provincial - level in Shandong within 1 year, perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Jiangxi with a term of 2 - 3 years, non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Liaoning within 1 year, and non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Liaoning with a term of 2 - 3 years, with declines all exceeding 15bp [2][22]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds in the stock of credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, especially those of varieties over 1 year, with adjustments generally within 10bp. The yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased by 10.2bp and 4.3bp respectively. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees [3][8]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - The varieties with high valuation yields and spreads in financial bonds are leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. Compared with last week, the yields of most financial bond varieties have increased. Specifically, in leasing bonds, the yields of public non - perpetual bonds with a term of 1 - 3 years have increased by more than 5bp, while the yields of private perpetual varieties within 1 year have declined significantly. In commercial financial bonds, the yields of national and joint - stock banks and urban commercial banks within 1 year have slightly decreased, while the bonds of other terms have generally adjusted, with the 1 - 2 year term being the period with the largest correction. The yields of bank sub - bonds have basically increased, but except for the perpetual bonds of rural commercial banks with a term of 2 - 3 years and the secondary bonds of joint - stock banks with a term of 3 - 5 years, the yield increases of other varieties are below 5bp. In addition, private non - perpetual and public perpetual sub - bonds of securities companies within 1 year are favored [4][8].

证券研究报告 固收 中航产融事件复盘 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 28 日│中国内地 信用周报 信用热点：中航产融事件复盘 2025 年 3 月 28 日，中航产融公告计划与债券持有人协商转场外兑付，4 月 23 日，由于摘牌工作议案未获通过，公司相关债券复牌。截至 4 月 2 日， 中航产融存续债券总规模 273 亿元及 7 亿美元，其中 2025 年到期债务包括 人民币债券 106 亿元和美元债券 4 亿美元。公司提出场外兑付或因为中航 信托风险敞口暴露、公司业绩近年偏弱、可避免舆情过度发酵、保留灵活性。 考虑到发行人企业性质、偿付意愿、货币资金储备等多种因素，短期偿债风 险整体可控。债券复牌后二级成交价格明显下跌，部分负债端稳定机构可考 虑调整下的风险溢价机会，但亦要警惕对同类型企业的情绪冲击。对于其余 信托相关债券，仍应结合基本面、流动性、偿债能力等方面评估信用资质。 市场回顾：MLF 净投放叠加政治局会议，中长端信用债多数上行 上周 MLF 超额续作，政治局会议召开，债市持续震荡，信用债收益率多数 上行，中长端上行较多。2025 年 4 月 18 日至 4 月 25 日，6000 亿元 MLF ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of the year, banks have faced certain pressure on their liabilities. The central bank has a strong desire to maintain a tight balance of liquidity in the short - term, with the capital interest rate running higher than the policy rate. The market has re - priced the previously optimistic liquidity expectations. Currently, the yield of credit bonds is at a relatively low percentile since 2022, while the credit spread is relatively high. After the Politburo meeting on April 25, it can be inferred that interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts may not be urgent for the time being. The economic fundamentals are in a relatively good state, and the capital market may maintain a tight balance in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to the possible impact of tariffs in the second quarter, domestic demand policies, monetary policies, stock market trends, and changes in the risk appetite of the bond market. The allocation value of credit bonds has become prominent after the valuation recovery. It is recommended to strengthen the flexibility of the portfolio and seize trading opportunities based on the expected timing of capital loosening [3][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Market Adjustment - Last week (April 18 - 25), the bond market adjusted. The 2 - 5 - year Treasury bonds had relatively large adjustment amplitudes, such as a 3.7BP adjustment for the 3 - year Treasury bond. Credit bonds also adjusted with a relatively larger amplitude. For example, among medium - term notes, the 3 - year AAA medium - term note had the largest valuation increase of 5.5BP, the 10 - year AA + medium - term note had the largest valuation increase of 6BP, and the 2 - year AA medium - term note had the largest valuation increase of 6.3BP. Since April 7, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond has had the largest adjustment amplitude, while medium - term notes generally show that the longer the term, the larger the adjustment amplitude, and the valuations of many varieties within one - year have even slightly narrowed [2][10][12]. - As of April 25, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AAA - rated medium - term notes were 1.82%, 1.94%, and 2.04% respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + - rated medium - term notes were 1.9%, 2.1%, and 2.2% respectively. From April 7 to April 25, the credit spreads of credit bonds also slightly widened [11]. 3.2 Credit Bond Trading Characteristics - Recently, the trading proportion of credit bonds within one - year has significantly increased, while the trading proportion of long - term credit bonds has significantly decreased, especially for those over 5 - year. The trading proportion of 3 - 5 - year credit bonds has been relatively volatile and slightly decreased compared to March 2025. The reason may be that investors' credit bonds over 5 - year are generally issued by high - credit - rated and high - quality entities with relatively good liquidity, which are more likely to be sold during the adjustment period. The 3 - 5 - year period combines relatively short duration and many high - yield entities, making it the main range for market band trading [2][12]. 3.3 Individual Bond Analysis - The valuations of entities such as AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd., Zunyi Tourism Investment (Group) Co., Ltd., Guangxi Liuzhou Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., and Zoucheng City Assets Holding Group Co., Ltd. are mostly high, with large adjustment amplitudes. The valuations of many bonds of entities such as Jiangsu Hanrui Investment Holding Co., Ltd., China Resources Power Investment Co., Ltd., and Chongqing Longfor Enterprise Development Co., Ltd. have narrowed [2][13]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - Investors can choose secondary perpetual bonds with better liquidity, urban investment bonds with good liquidity, central and state - owned enterprise real estate, central and state - owned enterprise energy materials, central and state - owned enterprise cultural and tourism bonds, and individual bonds with large previous adjustment amplitudes, and seize trading opportunities based on the expected timing of capital loosening [3][16]. - For institutions with high return requirements, they can focus on high - quality entities at the provincial level in Yunnan, the municipal level in Kunming, the provincial level in Shandong, and the municipal level in Weifang, as well as central and state - owned enterprise real estate and steel within three - year. Some entities have large previous adjustment amplitudes and can be appropriately deployed on the left side. They can also consider district and county entities in regions with strong debt - resolution efforts, such as districts and counties in Tianjin and Guangxi. In the cultural and tourism sector, some central and state - owned enterprise entities can be selected based on the support from shareholders [4][17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current debt resolution cycle marks the final stage of the long - term debt resolution process. Compared with previous cycles, it shows continuity and index characteristics in debt resolution resources, and local governments are more willing to resolve debts. High - coupon bonds issued in previous years are the focus of replacement, and more issuers choose to negotiate early redemption of outstanding bonds with investors [3]. - As of April 25, 2025, there are 70 urban investment bonds planned for early redemption this year, with a total scale of 25.4 billion yuan. In terms of regional distribution, Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan rank top three in the number of redemptions. In terms of rating distribution, 41 out of 70 bonds have a subject rating of AA, accounting for 59%, and the number of bonds with an implied rating of AA - is also 41 [3]. - Investors may face interest losses or the inability to realize potential capital gains during the early redemption process. The way and price of redemption determine the potential losses. Most cases choose face - value redemption, and only a small number of bonds provide compensation or are redeemed at net value. The proportion of bonds with a redemption price lower than the pre - announcement net value has increased to 56% in 2025, up about 7 percentage points from 2024 [4]. - Although the discount rate and proportion are rising, the passing rate of discount redemption plans has not decreased significantly. High - discount redemption cases are not rare. The difference in investor structure may be the main reason for the high passing rate of high - discount redemption plans [5][6]. - As of April 25, 2025, there are still more than 5,000 high - premium urban investment bonds in existence. Among them, 444 bonds' issuers have redeemed other bonds at face value since 2024, involving a scale of 334.3 billion yuan. Attention should be paid to the discount redemption risk of high - premium bonds, especially for regions or entities with high premiums but a precedent of face - value discount redemption [7]. - Recently, the credit bond market has been fluctuating narrowly, and the credit spread has widened slightly. The necessity of risk prevention has increased in the short term. It is recommended to appropriately allocate anti - risk assets, such as high - grade assets with good liquidity or medium - and low - grade medium - duration assets with sufficient spread protection and relatively stable valuations [8]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Analysis of Urban Investment Bond Early Redemption - As of April 25, 2025, 70 urban investment bonds are planned for early redemption this year, with a total scale of 25.4 billion yuan. 19 provinces have cases of early redemption of urban investment bonds. Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan rank top three in the number of redemptions, with 10, 8, and 8 respectively [3]. - In terms of rating distribution, 41 out of 70 early - redeemed urban investment bonds have a subject rating of AA, accounting for 59%. In terms of implied rating, the number of AA - bonds is also 41, followed by 22 AA(2) bonds [3]. 2. Analysis of Redemption Methods and Losses - In terms of redemption methods, 41 bonds choose to be redeemed at face value in advance, accounting for 59%, 12 bonds are redeemed at face value plus compensation, 13 bonds are compensated at the net price of ChinaBond valuation, and 5 bonds have not announced the specific redemption plan [4]. - In 2025, 39 out of 70 cases have a redemption price lower than the pre - announcement bond net value, accounting for 56%, up about 7 percentage points from 2024. The median unit redemption price is 0.97 yuan lower than the pre - announcement net value, showing an upward trend in recent years [4]. 3. Analysis of the Passing Rate of Discount Redemption Plans - Since reaching the peak in 2020 (90.3%), the passing rate of discount redemption plans has decreased slightly year by year, remaining at around 80% and dropping to about 76.9% this year [5][6]. - Since 2024, there have been 182 discount redemption cases, and 60 cases have a discount of more than 2 yuan compared with the pre - announcement net price, accounting for 33.0%. Among them, 49 early - repayment plans passed the vote of the bondholders' meeting, with a passing rate of 81.7%, higher than the overall passing rate of discount redemption plans (78.6%) and the passing rate of all early - redemption plans (80.7%) [6]. 4. Analysis of High - Premium Urban Investment Bonds - As of April 25, 2025, there are more than 5,000 high - premium urban investment bonds in existence. 444 bonds' issuers have redeemed other bonds at face value since 2024, involving a scale of 334.3 billion yuan [7]. - In terms of grade, AA(2) and AA - bonds account for a relatively large proportion, with 146 and 132 respectively. In terms of term, 1 - 2 years and more than 3 years are the main distribution terms, with 155 and 144 respectively. In terms of region, Henan, Chongqing, and Sichuan have relatively more sample bonds, with 57.6 billion yuan (48 bonds), 5.1 billion yuan (74 bonds), and 46.1 billion yuan (63 bonds) respectively [7]. 5. Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - Recently, the credit bond market has been fluctuating narrowly, and the credit spread has widened slightly. The necessity of risk prevention has increased in the short term [8]. - It is recommended to appropriately allocate anti - risk assets, such as high - grade assets with good liquidity or medium - and low - grade medium - duration assets with sufficient spread protection and relatively stable valuations [8].

量化信用策略 品种久期跟踪 城投债、产业债、租赁公司债、保险公司债久期处于较高历史分位。截至 4 月 18 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别 加权于 1.95 年、2.15 年，城投债与产业债虽较上期有所回落，但均处于 2021 年 3 月以来较高位水平，商业银行债 中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 3.69 年、2.97 年、1.93 年；从其余金融债来 看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分别为 1.26 年、1.79 年、3.72 年、1.36 年，其中证券 公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，保险公司债、租赁公司债位于较高历史分位。 票息资产热度图谱 截至 2025 年 4 月 21 日，存量信用债中，民企地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比，非金融非地 产类产业债收益率多有调整，1-2 年民企公募非永续品种收益率上行幅度超过 15BP，其余品种中 2-5 年国企私募永续 债调整幅度也大于 5BP；地产债中，短期限品种利率仍有下行，1 年以上品种收益率上行幅度基本在 5BP 内。金融债 中，各品种收益率以上行为主，一般商金债和二永债中收益率上 ...