同时，本届广交会现场意向出口成交持续增长。现场意向出口成交254.4亿美元，增长3% 。其中，共建"一带一路"国家成交占比超六成，是拉动成交增长的 重要引擎，传统市场成交保持稳定。 8.1 B32-33 C11-12 18.1C29-30 D12-13 SICAL INSTRUMENT 3 "11 I BLASTER 第137届中国进出口商品交易会。摄影/宋婕 第一财经记者在广交会走访时发现，不少参展企业通过对自身产销布局的调整，来应对外贸业务可能面对的风险。其中，开拓内销市场成为部分参展企业正 在尝试的工作。 新兴市场仍是最大客源地 广交会参展企业正通过对自身产销布局的调整，来应对外贸业务可能面临的不确定因素。 5月5日，第137届中国进出口商品交易会（下称"广交会"）线下展在广州落幕。本届广交会到会境外采购商人数创新高。截至5月4日（下同），共有来自219 个国家和地区的288,938名境外采购商到会，较第135届广交会同比（下同）增长17.3%。新老采购商踊跃参会，到会人数分别达171,750人、117,188人，分别 增长14.6%、21.4%。 记者留意到，新兴市场仍是广交会最大客源地。共建"一带一 ...

01 主题： 凯龙股份业绩交流会 时间： 5月6日（周二）10：00 主讲： 王亮 院长助理 &化工首席分析师 嘉宾： 孙总 公司副总经理 &董秘 参会密码： 553332 02 主 题： 珠江啤酒深度报告 时间： 5月7日（周三）15：00 主讲： 郭梦婕 食饮首席分析师 林叙希 食饮分析师 参会密码： 719416 03 主 题： 黑电行业系列（二）新兴市场篇 时间： 5月8日 (周四）16：00 时间： 5月7日（周三）15：00 主讲： 孟昕 家电轻工首席分析师 赵梦菲 家电轻工分析师 参会密码： 929799 04 主题： 易鑫集团深度报告 时间： 5月8日（周四）15：00 主讲： 夏芈卬 金融首席分析师 参会密码： 668605 05 主题： 稳健医疗推荐 主讲： 郭彬 纺服首席分析师 参会密码： 850922 野自体反映口 05 .07 ª / 15 : 00 行业分析 业首席分 识别二维码立即参会 会议号码: +86-4001888938 (中国) +86-01053827720 (全球) +886-277083288 (中国台湾) +852-57006920 (中国香港) 参会密码: 71 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 38.956 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.106 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.0% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 8.875 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.4% but a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 242 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [1] - The subsidiary, Ruitai New Materials, faced significant declines in revenue and profit in 2024, with revenue of 2.102 billion yuan, down 43.5% year-on-year, and net profit of 84.6 million yuan, down 81.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The textile and apparel industry in China demonstrated resilience in 2024, with exports reaching 301.13 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - The company plans to expand into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa to reduce reliance on traditional markets, with overseas revenue accounting for 82.52% of main business income in 2024 [2] - The battery materials market is experiencing increased demand due to the growth in the power and energy storage sectors, but competition is intensifying, leading to price declines [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its 2025 net profit forecast down by 22% to 1.378 billion yuan and introduced a new forecast for 2026 at 1.488 billion yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5x for 2025 and 7.8x for 2026, with a target price of 9.2 yuan indicating a potential upside of 28.5% from the current price [3]

Core Insights - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has reached an all-time high, indicating strong performance in emerging market currencies [1] Group 1 - The New Taiwan Dollar, South Korean Won, and Malaysian Ringgit are leading the gains among emerging market currencies [1]

Core Insights - MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has reached an all-time high, indicating strong performance in emerging market currencies [1] Group 1 - The New Taiwan Dollar, South Korean Won, and Malaysian Ringgit are leading the gains among emerging market currencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2023, Transsion Holdings achieved over 30% growth and entered the top five global smartphone manufacturers despite a general decline in shipments among domestic brands. However, the company faced challenges in maintaining this growth in 2024, with a nearly 70% decline in net profit for Q1 2024 compared to the previous year [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Transsion's revenue for 2024 reached 68.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while net profit was 5.549 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.22% [6][7]. - The company's gross margin in Africa decreased by 1.46 percentage points to 28.59%, although it remained higher than the gross margin of 17.66% in other Asian regions, which saw a decline of 2.52 percentage points [7][8]. - The smartphone segment accounted for over 90% of Transsion's total revenue, with a gross margin of 20.62%, down 2.63 percentage points from the previous year [6][7]. Group 2: Market Competition - Transsion's market share in the Middle East and Africa declined, with its share in the Middle East falling to 34% in Q4 2024, down from 36% the previous year [8]. - Competitors like Xiaomi and realme are rapidly expanding in the African market, with Xiaomi being the largest market share gainer in the Middle East and Africa in 2024, achieving a 15% increase in shipments [8][9]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying as other Chinese brands adopt localized strategies and target similar price segments, which may impact Transsion's profitability and market position [9][10].

资深新兴市场投资者、有"新兴市场教父"之称的麦朴思（Mark Mobius）表示，鉴于贸易相关的不确定 性可能持续长达六个月，他已将其基金的大部分持仓维持在现金中。 麦朴思周三在接受采访时表示："在这个阶段，现金为王。所以我基金里95%的资金都是现金。目前， 我们必须保留现金，并在时机成熟时做好行动准备。" 麦朴思已经投资新兴市场约三十年，他表示，印度等一些新兴市场国家在这种环境下会表现相当不 错，"但我们必须等到这一切稳定下来，看到这种不确定性平息。" 他表示，投资者可能只有在贸易谈判在未来四到六个月内进行后，才能评估市场机会。麦朴思补充说， 他不会持有如此多现金"超过三到四个月"，并将根据机会所在地开始部署部分资金。"如果市场进一步 下跌，我们当然会投入更多资金。" Brandywine的Lye表示，令投资者对新兴市场感到意外的是普遍的说法和预期，即在美国经济衰退即将 来临的情况下，新兴市场"不会挺住"。 她表示："我认为很多人已被证明是错误的，因为它们（新兴市场）正在挺住。"她补充说，其中一些国 家有足够的财政缓冲和货币空间来抵消增长担忧。 目前，投资者已大量涌入新兴市场债券，因为在美国总统特朗普的"对 ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds are increasingly bearish on U.S. stocks, with short positions becoming a consensus among institutional investors due to high market uncertainty [1][3] - The confidence indicator for hedge fund managers regarding specific investment strategies fell to a historic low of 10% at the end of March, although it has slightly recovered since then [1][3] - The S&P 500 index experienced its longest consecutive rise since November, but "smart money" is preparing for further declines in the U.S. market [1][3] Group 2 - Three significant challenges are leading hedge funds to short U.S. stocks while betting on European and Japanese markets, which have not yet fully reflected in current market prices [3][5] - The investment themes are becoming clearer, with stock strategy managers reducing U.S. stock holdings and increasing bets on Europe and Japan due to anticipated weaker growth not being priced in [3][5] - Emerging market investments performed notably well, with a return of 6.3% in the first quarter, driven by a surge in the Chinese stock market, while the overall hedge fund industry returned only 1.7% [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing complexity of investment decisions in the volatile financial markets of 2025, necessitating advanced analytical tools like Macro Global Markets for effective navigation through data [1] Market Trends and Analysis - The Macro Global Markets tool features a global policy simulator that captures the impact of central bank policy changes across 132 economies, breaking down the effects of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve into three phases: currency transmission (48 hours), bond market response (72 hours), and stock valuation restructuring (120 hours) [2] - The tool's "manufacturing GPS" capability utilizes 23 alternative data types, such as global port throughput and industrial electricity consumption, to predict manufacturing trends in emerging markets, with a lead time of 6-8 months [4] Strategic Insights - The "correlation matrix" function in the tool identifies hidden relationships in cross-market arbitrage, such as the correlation between the Brazilian real and the Norwegian krone rising from 0.32 to 0.81 when oil prices exceed $90 per barrel, aiding hedge funds in capturing arbitrage opportunities [5] - A unique three-layer defense mechanism in the "black swan warning system" scans media sentiment, analyzes shipping signal anomalies, and monitors dark web data to provide timely alternative route cost assessments when disruptions occur [5] User Guidance and Features - For new users, the "three-screen linked workstation" setup is recommended, which includes a U.S. Treasury yield curve, an industry rotation heatmap, and a commodity term structure monitor to stabilize market volatility [6] - Advanced users can activate the "Alpha Hunter" module, which integrates machine learning with fundamental analysis to generate decision trees based on specific investment themes, enhancing the precision of investment strategies [6] Practical Applications - The "data time machine" feature allows users to analyze historical events and their impacts, such as comparing the recent TSMC incident with past semiconductor disruptions to assess market implications [9] - The "volatility topography" function assists in risk management by simulating asset rebalancing paths under different interest rate scenarios, effectively controlling portfolio volatility during market fluctuations [9] - The Macro Global Markets tool is positioned as a comprehensive decision-making system that combines macro and micro perspectives, redefining market analysis in a new era of financial volatility [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 financial results, showing a revenue increase but a decline in net profit due to increased R&D investments. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.41% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 65 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.44% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 66 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.97% [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.49%, an increase of 0.70 percentage points year-on-year [3] Expense Management - The company's expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 11.60%, an increase of 1.40 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Breakdown of expense ratios: sales (1.96%), management (5.50%), R&D (4.95%), and financial expenses (-0.81%) with respective year-on-year changes of 0.14, -1.27, +0.42, and +2.12 percentage points [4] R&D and Market Expansion - The company is enhancing its R&D capabilities, solving key material challenges and achieving breakthroughs in high-end product technologies [5] - Significant advancements include the development of high-temperature, high-voltage ceramic powder for MLCCs and the domestic replacement of precious metal electrode paste [5] - The company is targeting emerging markets, with projected revenue growth in automotive electronics (+66%), communications (+24%), and industrial control (+16%) for 2024 [5] Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 5.734 billion, 6.523 billion, and 7.295 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 16.1%, 13.8%, and 11.8% respectively [6] - Projected net profits for the same period are 505 million, 711 million, and 920 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 49.7%, 40.7%, and 29.4% respectively [6] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.44, 0.61, and 0.79 yuan, with a current stock price of 13.48 yuan corresponding to PE ratios of 30.88x, 21.95x, and 16.96x [6]