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中辉期货今日重点推荐-20250826
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:53
Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers individual ratings for various futures varieties, including "Short - term adjustment", "Short - term bullish", and "Cautiously bullish" [2] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, such as soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks, market influencing factors, and trading strategies for each variety [2] Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price and Inventory**: As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on -
棕榈油:基本面暂无新驱动,等待回调布多豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,高位震荡整理豆粕:隔夜美豆收跌,连粕或调整震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:27
2025年08月26日 商 品 研 究 期货研究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油:基本面暂无新驱动,等待回调布多 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,高位震荡整理 | 2 | | 豆粕:隔夜美豆收跌,连粕或调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一:偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米:震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖:窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花:关注新作情况和外部市场情绪影响 | 8 | | 鸡蛋:远端情绪偏弱 | 10 | | 生猪:现货表现不及预期,逢高做空 | 11 | | 花生:关注新花生上市 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 8 月 26 日 棕榈油:基本面暂无新驱动,等待回调布多 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘) 9,488 | 涨跌幅 -0.23% | 收盘价 (夜 盘) 9,542 | 涨跌幅 0.57% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | | 0.52% | | ...
棉花走高、玉米下挫
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:53
棉花走高、玉米下挫 (一)棉花:高开高走 一、农产品板块综述 棉花上涨,商业库存不断去化,下游金九银十消费旺季来临,纺 企订单改善,支撑棉价上涨。玉米大跌,进口玉米持续拍卖,部分地 区春玉米上市,小麦饲用替代持续,新玉米丰收预期较强,供应充足, 玉米承压大跌,延续下行趋势。鸡蛋弱势难改,无力反弹,供应端蛋 鸡存栏高企,供应充足,旺季预期落空,需求不振,鸡蛋承压下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 焦点关注:玉米主力 2511 合约大幅收阴,将前日反弹幅度回吐, 期价受到供应充足的压力: 1.中储粮持续拍卖进口玉米,拍卖常态化,市场氛围偏空,部分 地区春玉米上市,现货市场供应充足。小麦饲用替代持续,下游需求 疲弱,深加工亏损,养殖业利润一般,下游大规模补库动力不足,新 玉米丰收预期较强,利空因素压榨玉米期价大幅下跌。 2.大连玉米主力 2511 合约报收长阴,再度跌至均线系统之下, 各均线空头排列,MACD 持续下行,绿柱扩大,技术偏弱,策略上轻 仓空单。主力 2511 合约支撑 2140,阻力 2167。 焦点关注:棉花主力 2601 合约高开高走,增仓上行,触及两周 高点,受到需求旺季来临的提振: 1.棉花商业库存持续 ...
中辉期货今日重点推荐-20250825
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 05:32
Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report Overall - Short - term adjustment is expected for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, with opportunities for short - term long positions after adjustment [1]. - Short - term bullish trends are predicted for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with a focus on buying on dips [1]. - Cautious bullishness is advised for cotton, red dates, and live pigs, with specific trading strategies proposed according to different market conditions [1]. By Variety - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term adjustment, with short - term long opportunities after adjustment due to ProFarmer's lower - than - expected US soybean yield forecast and consideration of Sino - US trade issues [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment, with opportunities for short - term long positions after stabilization. High inventory, high warehouse receipts, improved Sino - Australian trade, and increased Canadian rapeseed yield forecast are influencing factors [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish, with a focus on buying on dips. Favorable biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia, good export data, and reduced inventory are positive factors [1][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish, awaiting the implementation of the US biodiesel policy. Domestic spot market has good pre - holiday stocking [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish, with prices mainly following other competing oils due to limited new developments in anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and Australian rapeseed purchases [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautious bullish, with opportunities to buy on dips. Although US cotton soil moisture has improved and demand is insufficient, low international cotton price valuation, tight supply before new cotton listing, and potential local procurement support the market. However, the upside space is limited due to high - yield expectations [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Cautious bullish, with a strategy of buying on dips. Expected production reduction in 2025/26, long speculation period around the opening price before November, and accelerated inventory reduction are positive factors, but there is pressure from carry - over inventory [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Cautious bullish, with a suggestion to avoid short - selling blindly in the short term. High - level medium - and long - term inventory, shrinking incremental space, and potential capacity reduction of leading enterprises may support far - month contracts [1][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: Futures price (main contract) is 3113 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 1.49% from the previous day. National average spot price is 3084.29 yuan/ton, down 12.85 yuan or 0.41% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 15, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 892.6 million tons, down 1.20 million tons from last week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 680.4 million tons, down 30.16 million tons or 4.24% from last week; bean meal inventory is 101.47 million tons, up 1.12 million tons or 1.12% from last week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: ProFarmer's US soybean yield forecast is lower than the USDA's August forecast, which is bullish. Considering Sino - US trade, short - term long opportunities can be considered after adjustment [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: Futures price (main contract) is 2561 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan or 2.51% from the previous day. National average spot price is 2608.95 yuan/ton, down 18.94 yuan or 0.72% [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 15, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 11.5 million tons, down 2.38 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 million tons, down 0.65 million tons from last week; unexecuted contracts are 5.5 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from last week [5]. - **Market Analysis**: High inventory, high warehouse receipts, improved Sino - Australian trade, and increased Canadian rapeseed yield forecast have cooled market speculation. Short - term long opportunities can be considered after stabilization, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: Futures price (main contract) is 9592 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. National average price is 9553 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.31% [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 15, 2025, national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 61.73 million tons, up 1.75 million tons or 2.92% from last week [9]. - **Export Data**: Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 17.5% (AmSpec) and 37.19% (SGS) compared to the same period last month [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Favorable biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia, good export data, and reduced inventory support a short - term bullish view. Buying on dips is recommended, while paying attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the estimated Malaysian palm oil inventory this month [1][9]. Cotton - **Price Data**: Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 is 14030 yuan/ton, and domestic spot price is 15246 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [10][11]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic cotton commercial inventory is 71.26 million tons, lower than the same period by 29.7 million tons [12]. - **Demand Data**: Spinning mill operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%; weaving mill operating rate is 37%, up 0.2%; spinning mill orders are 11.42 days, up 3.06 days [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Although US cotton soil moisture has improved and demand is insufficient, low international cotton price valuation, tight supply before new cotton listing, and potential local procurement support the market. However, the upside space is limited due to high - yield expectations. Buying on dips is recommended, and the long - short rhythm can be adjusted according to demand in September [1][13]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: Red dates main contract CJ2601 is 11235 yuan/ton, down 2.47% [14][15]. - **Inventory Data**: 36 sample enterprises' inventory is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from the previous period [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Expected production reduction in 2025/26, long speculation period around the opening price before November, and accelerated inventory reduction are positive factors, but there is pressure from carry - over inventory. Buying on dips is recommended, and the market is expected to be strong first and then weak [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: Live pigs main contract Lh2511 is 13840 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. Domestic live pig spot price is stable at 13820 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Inventory and Supply Data**: National sample enterprises' live pig inventory is 3763.32 million tons, up 1.17% month - on - month; slaughter volume is 1091.68 million tons, down 3.01% month - on - month; fertile sows inventory is 4043 million tons, up 0.02% [17]. - **Market Analysis**: Smooth slaughter rhythm in the breeding end, pressure from previous second - fattening and accelerated August slaughter on the spot market. Medium - and long - term inventory remains high, but incremental space is shrinking. Capacity reduction of leading enterprises may support far - month contracts. Short - term short - selling is not recommended under the boost of purchase and storage sentiment, and long positions in far - month contracts or reverse arbitrage around strong contracts can be considered [1][19].
苯乙烯:短期偏强,中期偏空
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:57
商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 注:趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下:弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强,-2 表 示最看空,2 表示最看多。 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,352 | 7,267 | 85 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2510 | 7,378 | 7,289 | 89 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB08-EB09 | -26 | -22 | -4 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB09-EB10 | -9 | -85 | 76 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源:同花顺,卓创,国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250825
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:50
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 8 月 25 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪回暖,钢价震荡企稳 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪回暖叠加夜盘钢材期价走强,周末钢材现货价格有所上涨,而螺纹钢供需格局变化不 大,库存持续累库,建筑钢厂生产趋弱,供应有所收缩,但品种吨钢利润尚可,持续性待跟踪。与 此同时,螺纹钢需求表现依然疲 ...
燃料油:涨势明显,短期强势延续,低硫燃料油:相对高硫偏弱,外盘现货高低硫
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:37
2025 年 8 月 25 日 燃料油:涨势明显,短期强势延续 低硫燃料油:相对高硫偏弱,外盘现货高低硫 价差小幅反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 漆 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2.779 | 1.72% | | 2.767 | 2.03% | | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2.774 | 2.03% | | 2,763 | 1.73% | | | | LU2510 | 元/晓 | 3,493 | 0. 32% | | 3,469 | 0.26% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,499 | 0. 26% | | 3.467 | 0. 17% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 特仓变动 | | | 期货 | FU2510 | ક | 63 ...
期货开户选哪家?综合平台排名推荐
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 13:28
在投资期货市场时,选择一家可靠的期货公司至关重要。它不仅影响您的交易体验和资金安全,还直接 关系到投资收益的高低。面对众多期货平台,投资者常常困惑于"期货公司哪家好"或"期货开户选哪 家"。本文将基于权威数据和行业分析,为您提供一份全面的期货公司排名介绍。 Top1.新湖期货 推荐指数:★★★★★ 口碑评分:9.8分 公司背景:成立于1995年,净资产超13亿元,主要股东为杭州兴和投资发展有限公司和上海众孚实业有 限公司。2008年重组后快速发展,现有500多名员工,在全国设有30家分支机构和2家子公司,业务覆盖 广泛。 资质认证:作为期货交易平台获得国家相关监管机构全面认证,包括中国期货业协会副会长单位、上海 市期货同业公会会长单位、大连商品交易所理事单位、郑州商品交易所理事单位等。作为大连商品交易 所、郑州商品交易所、上海期货交易所、上海国际能源交易中心、广州期货交易所会员,以及中国金融 期货交易所全面结算会员,其合规性极强。 系统稳定性:技术优势突出,采用先进的IT系统支持交易平台,确保高稳定性和低延迟。交易APP(如 官方移动应用)用户友好,支持实时行情和风控功能,穿仓率控制严格。 Top2.东证期货 ...
国投期货化工日报-20250822
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 11:31
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply disruptions, demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Downstream restocking is active, and supply - side news is positive, boosting prices [2] - Polyolefin futures have narrow fluctuations. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow - growing demand, while polypropylene has supply support but slow - recovering demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices oscillate around 6200 yuan/ton. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third quarter and potential pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Cost is weak, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state with potential inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PTA is driven by cost and shows a strong trend. Terminal weaving is improving, and PX supply - demand is expected to improve [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rise to 4500 yuan/ton and then fall back. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [5] - Short - fiber supply - demand is stable and cost - driven. New capacity is limited, and mid - term long - position allocation is considered [5] - Bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, limiting profit margin recovery [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices are weak. Import volume is slightly down, but port inventory may reach a high level at the end of the third quarter [6] - Urea prices fall after export news. Supply is loose in the short term, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is poor, and export pressure is increasing [7] - Caustic soda is strong. Non - aluminum seasonal restocking and demand increase support prices, but long - term supply pressure remains [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rise. Supply may decline slightly, but inventory is high, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices rise. Inventory accumulation slows down, and cost increases provide support [8]
瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 10:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures rose 4.95% with a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures fell 3.14% showing an overall downward trend [6]. - For soda ash, the domestic production rate and output increased this week. Although the profit margin slightly rebounded, the maintenance was still lower than expected. The profit rebound is not sustainable, and the overall output is expected to decline. The market supply is currently loose, and the market will likely follow the guidance of the anti - involution meeting, with the natural soda ash method gradually replacing backward production capacity. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the demand for soda ash from the glass industry is at a low level. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased due to insufficient demand, and the de - stocking process will be repeated. Overall, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, the demand will continue to decline, and the price will be under pressure, but there may be variables with anti - involution speculation [6]. - For glass, the cold - repair number of production lines remained unchanged, and the output is at a low level. The profit is starting to decline due to the impact of high - temperature weather on real - estate construction demand. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the downstream deep - processing orders have slightly increased, with procurement mainly for rigid demand. The overall inventory has started to rise slightly, but the de - stocking trend remains. A restocking market is expected to start next week. The marginal growth of the automobile industry has weakened. If there is news from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, the logic of interest - rate cuts may continue to be traded [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1300 - 1390, with a stop - loss range of 1280 - 1420, and operate the FG2601 contract in the range of 1130 - 1200, with a stop - loss range of 1100 - 1230 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures rose 4.95% with a first - down - then - up trend. In the first half of the week, it was weak due to poor fundamentals, and the spot price drove the futures price down. In the second half, it was affected by the speculation of production - capacity limitation. Glass futures fell 3.14% with an overall downward trend. After switching the main contract in the first half of the week, the price was overestimated and then dropped significantly due to insufficient real - estate demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is abundant and demand is falling, and the price will be under pressure but may change with anti - involution speculation. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the real - estate situation is not good, and a restocking market is expected next week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2601 in the 1300 - 1390 range and FG2601 in the 1130 - 1200 range, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices fell this week [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of soda ash decreased, and the basis strengthened, but the rebound was not obvious. The spot price of glass weakened, and the basis strengthened and is expected to continue to do so. The soda ash - glass price spread weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [13][17][21]. - **Specific Data**: As of August 21, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1207.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the soda ash basis was - 98.5 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the glass basis was - 88 yuan/ton. As of August 14, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 150 yuan/ton [15][19][23]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Analysis - **Production Capacity and Output**: The domestic soda ash production rate and output increased this week. As of August 21, 2025, the national soda ash production rate was 88.75%, a 1.62% increase week - on - week, and the national weekly soda ash output was 77.14 tons, a 1.32% increase week - on - week. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the output was at a low level [24][28][35]. - **Profit Situation**: The profit of domestic soda ash enterprises rebounded this week due to cost reduction, while the profit of glass enterprises decreased due to the decline in spot prices. The theoretical profit of China's dual - tonnage soda ash by the joint - alkali process was 18 yuan/ton, a 11 yuan/ton increase week - on - week, and the theoretical cost decreased by 60 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda ash method was - 13 yuan/ton, a 5 yuan/ton increase week - on - week, and the theoretical cost decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 192.84 yuan/ton, a 12.53% decrease; using coal - gas as fuel was 101.55 yuan/ton, a 10.26% increase; using petroleum coke as fuel was 35.52 yuan/ton, a 59.5% decrease [30][33]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased due to increased production, and the inventory of glass enterprises increased due to poor real - estate demand. As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 191.08 tons, a 0.89% increase week - on - week, and the total glass inventory was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a 0.28% increase week - on - week [46][50]. - **Downstream Demand**: The deep - processing orders for glass increased slightly, but the demand is still low. As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days [52][54].