商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 铂：突破前高开启补涨 钯：ETF 增持明显，有望冲击前高 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 452. 05 | | 2. 18% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 445. 54 | | 2. 16% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | 1764. 20 | | 2. 93% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | 1742. 30 | | 2. 73% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 389. 45 | | 1. 09% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 365. 00 | | 2. 53% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连 | 1,519.80 | | 1.93% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | 1. 490. 33 | | -0.11% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空博弈，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面驱动不足，焦炭偏弱震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 12 月 12 日当周，供 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，12月货主流在01贴水20附近商谈成交，个别略高在01-15，略低在01-22~25，在价格商谈区间在4590~4635。 下周个别仓单在01-30有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-20。中性 2、基差：现货4610，01合约基差-4，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.86天，环比减少0.06天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 多翻空 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA装置运行平稳，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，带动现货基差走强，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，预计短期内 PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - **Sugar**: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - **Market News**: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views**: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - **Next - Week's Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - **International and Domestic Fundamentals**: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场个别松动。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4735元/吨，环比下跌0.06%，与上周趋势相比由 涨转跌；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4422元/吨，环比上涨0.07%，涨幅环比持平。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，规模纸企稳 价出货为主，部分接单尚可，但整体库存压力仍存；第二，年末经销商备库偏理性，社会面订单暂无明显改善，高白双胶纸部分成交存在商 谈空间；第三，出版订单陆续开始提货，本白双胶纸出货存在向好预期，价格多数稳定；第四，上游木浆价 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：下游逐渐负反馈，加工费压缩 供应 工厂开工维持高位，平均开工95.5%，纺纱用直纺涤短开机率回落至96.8%（恒逸高新25万吨检修至月底） 需求 12月后，内需终端订单加速走弱，纱线、织造、坯布继续累库，后续需求预期较弱部分下游可能考虑1月中旬提前放假，因而纱线、织造环节 开工部分加速下行，实物库存偏高但距离极限仍有距离，原料备库中性偏低，后续下游预计保持刚需补库节奏，等待低位。短纤小幅去库， ...

| Million | > 图技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月12日 | | 尿素 | な☆☆ | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 频料 | ★☆☆ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | なな女 | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PTA | 女女女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ななな | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 塑料和聚丙 ...

| 《八》 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月12日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，01减仓,05增仓;棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业 库存同比基本持平、销售进度偏快，也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳，关注春节前 需求能否出现小旺季。郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月底，全国棉花商业库存为468.36 万吨，环比增加175.3万吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 姓名：陈栋 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 12 月 12 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空情绪占优 能化偏弱运行 核心观点 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 15230 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.26%至 15230 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 15 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量增 ...

嘉化能源公告称，公司拟使用不超1亿元自有资金，在不影响正常经营、操作合法合规前提下，进行期 货套期保值和投资，交易品种为PVC、烧碱等。授权期限自股东会审议通过之日起1年，授权董事长在 额度内决策并实施。该议案已通过第十届董事会第十五次会议审议，尚需股东会审议。公司提醒，期货 交易存在市场、政策等风险，已制定相关制度控制风险。 ...