Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue of 11.372 billion and a net profit of 269 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6.97% and 62.14% respectively [1][4] - The company is actively expanding its duty-free business and exploring new business formats to meet consumer demand, including successful bids for duty-free operations at airports and the introduction of various experiential retail formats [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.872 billion, a decrease of 2.92% year-on-year, and a net loss of 158 million [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 40.16%, down 1.68 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 2024 gross margin at 40.12%, down 3.86 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s operating expenses increased, with a total expense ratio of 31.58% for 2024, up 1.90 percentage points year-on-year [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 21% and 15% to 490 million and 559 million respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 610 million [4][5] - The report provides a detailed financial summary, indicating a projected revenue growth rate of 3.71% for 2025 and a decline in net profit growth rate of 82.34% for the same year [5][10] Business Strategy and Development - The company is enhancing its duty-free layout and strengthening new consumption formats, which are expected to benefit from overall consumption recovery policies [4] - New business initiatives include the integration of over 60 second-dimensional brands and IP resources in shopping centers, and the introduction of experiential formats such as e-sports and cultural performances [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is gradually stabilizing and rebounding as the impact of tariffs diminishes, with significant gains in major indices, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of April 23, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 2.84%, the Hang Seng Index by 2.11%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.83% [1]. - Since March 20, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced continuous adjustments, but has begun to recover due to interventions from state-owned enterprises [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong stock market is seeing a growing proportion of technology and new consumer companies, which are expected to account for 54.5% of the total market capitalization by the end of 2024 [2]. - ETFs focusing on technology, consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are becoming popular among investors, providing efficient access to these sectors [1][3]. Group 3: Specific ETF Products - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF (513980) targets large-cap technology leaders with high R&D investment and revenue growth, including companies like Meituan and Tencent [2]. - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (513970) focuses on essential and discretionary consumer goods, excluding alcohol and internet platforms, aiming to capture opportunities in consumer recovery [3]. - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF (513780) tracks leading companies in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, which is relatively scarce compared to the A-share market [3].

食品饮料周报 3月社零环比回暖，内需关注度提 升 证券研究报告 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-0.27%。涨跌幅前三的个股为：金徽酒 （+1.29%）、泸州老窖（+1.25%）、五粮液 （+0.11%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为舍得酒业（-3.38%）、迎驾贡酒（-4.86%）、岩石股份（-9.63%）。 观点：3月社零环比回暖，内需关注度提升。据国家统计局，2025年3月社零同比增长5.9%，增速较1-2月提升1.9pct，前期政策刺 激下消费持续恢复。展望未来，外需扰动下，内需重要性提升，消费政策有望进一步加码，带动需求恢复。标的上推荐三条主线， 一是需求坚挺的高端白酒，推荐贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖；二是全国化持续推进的次高端白酒，推荐山西汾酒；三 ...

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is positive, with expectations of returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [28] Core Views - March retail sales data exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery in consumption and stabilization of fundamentals in the food and beverage sector [5][14] - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase, with the SW food and beverage index rising by 0.32% [5][14] - The report highlights strong performance in the snack and beverage segments, with specific companies showing significant growth [6][24] Summary by Sections Sub-industry Ratings - No specific ratings for liquor, beverages, and food categories [3] - Recommended companies include: - Luzhou Laojiao: Buy - Shanxi Fenjiu: Buy - Jinshiyuan: Buy - Yingjia Gongjiu: Buy - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy - Youyou Food: Buy - Zhujiang Beer: Hold - Qingdao Beer: Hold - Yanjing Beer: Hold [3][27] Industry Performance - March retail sales total increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with restaurant income at 423.5 billion yuan, up 5.6% [5][14] - The SW food and beverage sector ranked 17th among 31 sub-industries [5][14] - Top-performing stocks included Anji Food (+50.00%), Kangbiter (+32.81%), and Maiqu'er (+24.09%) [5][14] Alcohol Sector Insights - The liquor sector is expected to see valuation recovery driven by domestic policy expectations, with a focus on companies with strong earnings certainty [18][21] - The SW liquor index decreased by 0.49%, but retail sales for tobacco and alcohol showed a recovery trend [18] - Recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu [21] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The consumer goods sector is favored due to low-level consumption elasticity, with a focus on companies with strong Q1 performance [23] - The snack segment saw significant growth, driven by innovative products and new channels [23] - Key stocks to watch include Youyou Food, Zhujiang Beer, and Dongpeng Beverage [23] Beer Sector Updates - The beer sector is expected to benefit from improved consumption data and a significant recovery in the restaurant sector [24] - The SW beer index is anticipated to recover in Q2, with low inventory levels and favorable weather conditions [24] - Recommended companies include Zhujiang Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Qingdao Beer [24][26] Beverage Sector Updates - Dongpeng Beverage reported strong Q1 results, with revenue growth of 39.2% year-on-year [26] - The company is expanding its product offerings and enhancing its market presence [26] - Other beverage leaders are also expected to perform well in the upcoming season [26]

证券研究报告 礼来首个小分子口服GLP-1药物3期临床研究成 功，有望改变减重药物格局 生物医药行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 生物医药团队 分析师： 叶寅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001 邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 倪亦道 投资咨询资格编号:S1060518070001 邮箱：NIYIDAO242@PINGAN.COM.CN 韩盟盟 投资咨询资格编号:S1060519060002 邮箱：HANMENGMENG005@PINGAN.COM.CN 裴晓鹏 投资咨询资格编号:S1060523090002 邮箱：PEIXIAOPENG719@PINGAN.COM.CN 何敏秀 投资咨询资格编号:S1060524030001 邮箱：HEMINXIU894@PINGAN.COM.CN 王钰畅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060524090001 邮箱：WANGYUCHANG804@PINGAN.COM.CN 曹艳凯 投资咨询资格编号:S1060524120001 邮箱：CAOYANKAI947@PINGAN.COM.CN 研究助理：臧文清 一般证券从业资格编号:S1060123 ...

智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，2025年3月社零数据增速环比回升，主要系"以旧换新"政策 扩大范围以及居民消费信心修复。展望2025年随着中美关税冲击影响，预计后续扩内需政策有望显著加 力，大力提振国内消费需求，食品饮料板块有望受益。细分板块看，白酒行业基本处于自身周期底部位 置，后续大概率是平稳上行，进入中长期布局时点。大众品方面，看好具有渠道改革与海外市场扩张红 利的零食板块;建议关注餐饮复苏下啤酒行业的改善;此外建议关注具备生育政策概念催化、原奶价格平 衡点有望加速到来的乳制品行业。 开源证券主要观点如下： 观测季度数据变化情况，2025Q1社会消费品零售总额同比+4.6%，增速环比2024Q4提升0.6pct，居民消 费处于持续改善阶段。2025Q1餐饮及限额以上餐饮收入同比分别+4.7%和+4.7%，增速环比2024Q4分别 +1.5pct和+3.2pct，一季度受益于消费需求改善，餐饮消费增速有所提升。2025Q1粮油食品类、饮料 类、烟酒类同比分别+12.2%、-0.5%、+6.3%，增速环比2024Q4分别+2.3pct、+4.1pct、+3.5pct，粮油食 品保持较高增速，饮料类 ...

平安证券指出，随着促进消费政策的不断推出，以及居民收入和信心的逐步恢复，消费复苏将呈现前低 后高的节奏，年内建议关注零食和餐饮产业链的投资机会。休闲零食：零食的渠道红利和产品红利仍 在，一方面新渠道红利尚未结束，另一方面制造型企业不断推出新品抢占消费者心智，行业整体维持高 景气。餐饮产业链：餐饮行业景气度处于底部企稳阶段，预判年内餐饮可能会有小幅度复苏。餐饮相关 产业链如啤酒、调味品、速冻食品等行业可适当关注。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 此外，近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，提出改革完善促进消费 体制机制，健全和用好宏观政策取向一致性评估工作机制，加强财税、金融、产业、投资等政策与消费 政策的协同，促进同向发力、形成合力，构建更加有利于促消费的政策体系。 机构认为，随着一揽子政策的有序出台，内需有望迎来改善契机。 食品饮料板块15日盘中发力走高，截至发稿，一致魔芋涨超25%，盘中创出新高；欢乐家20%涨停，嘉 必优涨超10%，劲仔食品、安记食品、麦趣尔均涨停，骑士乳业涨超9%。 消息面上，商务部等六部门近日联合印发《关于组织开展"购在中国"系列活动的通知》，部署各地聚焦 首发经 ...

一 政策加持叠加资金青睐，港股消费启新程 1 消费复苏正当时，收入上扬拓宽消费增长空间 随着我国经济结构的转型升级，第三产业在经济发展中占据主导地位。我国第三产业（服务业）增加值占GDP比重连续10年超过50%；根据国家统计局数 据，2024年全年分产业看，第一产业增加值91414亿元，增长3.5%；第二产业增加值492087亿元，增长5.3%；第三产业增加值765583亿元，增长 5.0%。三大产业增加值占GDP的比重分别为6.8%、36.5%和56.7%，对经济增长的贡献率分别为5.2%、38.6%和56.2%，第三产业成为经济增长的重要 驱动力。 消费是拉动经济增长的"主引擎"。2024年，在消费品以旧换新及一揽子增量政策的带动下，消费潜力不断释放，为促进国民经济稳定增长提供有效支撑。 2024年，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为44.5%，拉动GDP增长2.2个百分点。 一、 政策加持叠加资金青睐，港股消费启新程 消费复苏正当时，收入上扬拓宽消费增长空间： 我国第三产业增加值占GDP比 重连续10年超50%，对经济增长贡献率高，成为经济结构优化的重要驱动力。 居民可支配收入的稳步提高，提振了居民的消费能 ...

规模方面，必选消费ETF近2周规模增长2544.57万元，实现显著增长。份额方面，必选消费ETF最新份额达7.54亿份，创近1年新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，必选消费ETF近7天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得655.93万元净流入，合计"吸金"2571.61万元。 白酒板块2025年下半年业绩低基数下或迎弹性表现，必选消费ETF(512600)冲 击3连涨 从估值层面来看，必选消费ETF跟踪的中证主要消费指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅20.9倍，处于近3年7.54%的分位，即估值低于近3年92.46%以上的时间， 处于历史低位。 截至2025年3月26日 10:59，中证主要消费指数上涨0.55%，成分股牧原股份上涨3.52%，温氏股份上涨2.76%，圣农发展上涨2.28%，新希望上涨1.38%，古井 贡酒上涨1.10%。必选消费ETF(512600)上涨0.29%， 冲击3连涨，盘中成交额已达352.95万元。 天风证券研报指出，当前白酒板块估值仍处于合理偏低水位，基于：① 消费政策或将持续落地催化；② 白酒板块2025年下半年业绩低基数下或迎弹性表 现；③ 白酒对外资吸引力仍强等，后续或仍有进一步修复 ...

市场全天探底回升尾盘翻红，三大指数微涨，大小指数走势分化，微盘股指数跌超4%， 全市场超38 0 0只个股下跌。 盘面上，有色金属等周期股表现活跃，北方铜业涨停。旅游股震荡走强，峨眉山A涨停。 深海科技概念股探底回升，亚星锚链等多股涨停。下跌方面，算力概念股震荡走低，锦鸡 股份跌超10%。截至收盘，沪指涨0 . 1 5%，深成指涨0.07%，创业板指涨0.01%。 市场热 点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少，全市场超3800只个股下跌。沪深两市全天成交额1 . 4 5万 亿，较上个交易日缩量1 0 0 1亿。 A股市场历来存在显著的"日历效应"， 其中"春季躁动"、"四月决断"是最具代表性的现 象之一。 "春躁"行情从1月开始到现在大盘涨到3400，诞生了每日互动、襄阳轴承、首 都在线等一大批牛股，这两天市场情绪退潮，那么接下来市场会进入"四决断"行情吗？我 们又该如何应对？ 0 1"四月决断"，聚焦业绩确定性！ 4 月决断，指的是指每年4月前后市场基于政策落地、经济数据验证及上市公司财报披露 等等因素，对全年投资主线和趋势做出方向性选择的关键时期。 核心逻辑在于市场从 "政策预期驱动" 向 "基本面业绩驱动"转变。 ...