（原标题：国联民生：2026年什么原因可能导致明年美元意外升值？ 关注第三、四季度经济节奏阶段 性反转可能性） 除此之外，迫于国内的通胀压力，白宫可能会进一步向下调整关税水平，这一方面是会缓解非美经济体 的压力，另一方面则会导致美国财政的进一步恶化。 智通财经APP获悉，国联民生发布研报称，明年美元预计仍处于弱周期中，但是可能并没有想象中那么 差：年初需要警惕的是特朗普提名的新联储主席在宽松上"措辞谨慎"，明年下半年则要警惕美国和非美 经济体经济表现的阶段性强弱转换。而期间则需要关注日本央行的独立性问题，以及法国等高负债欧洲 国家的阶段性财政担忧。 国联民生主要观点如下： 最近几年，站在年末看下一年的美元走势很容易出错。以去年年底为例子，特朗普意外横扫、重回白宫 之后，市场情绪亢奋，在经济过热、通胀上行预期的指引下，多数人认为美元会延续强势，结果今年美 元在1月就见顶，年内最多跌超10%。如果站在今年年底来判断，美元偏弱可能是明年的基本情形。 如果明年美元有再次违背预期的可能，什么原因可能导致明年美元意外升值？ 为什么市场认为明年美元会偏弱？没有了美国例外论的光环，市场会更加客观地看待美国和非美之间的 关系： ...

高盛集团在电邮公告中透露，若美国私人投资者将资金投入黄金交易所交易基金（ETF），到 2026 年底金价达到 每盎司4900美元的预期存在很大上调空间。分析师 Lina Thomas 和 Daan Struyven 指出，黄金 ETF 是衡量美国市 场黄金敞口的最通用工具，然而目前其在私人金融投资组合中的占比仅为 0.17%，不仅远低于合理水平，也低于 2012 年的峰值，当前黄金持仓处于低位。 高盛估计，美国金融投资组合中黄金占比每增加一个基点，金价就会基于新增购买的影响上涨1.4%。报告还提 及，长期资本配置者正考虑将黄金作为战略性投资组合多元化工具，增加黄金配置。即便只是从全球债券和股票 投资组合中适度抽离资金重新配置到黄金，鉴于黄金市场规模相对较小，也可能大幅推高其价格。据高盛对13F 文件的分析，美国最大的投资者中持有黄金 ETF 的不到一半，相关风险敞口的配置比例仅为已报告资产的0.1%至 0.5%。这意味着黄金市场存在巨大的资金流入潜力，未来金价有望在资金推动下大幅上扬。 多重因素致美元跌势难改 近日，华尔街两大重要议题引发市场广泛关注。高盛集团就黄金市场走势给出积极预期，同时包括高盛在内的多 ...

Group 1 - Societe Generale has closed its short position on 10-year U.S. Treasuries after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, realizing profits from a trade initiated at a yield of 4.09% and closed at 4.15% [1] - Fitch Ratings expects the U.S. leveraged loan default rate to decline by 2026, predicting it will range between 4.5% and 5.0%, while high-yield bond defaults are expected to be between 2.5% and 3.0% [1] - Scotiabank believes the U.S. dollar bear market has just begun, forecasting a continued weakening of the dollar until 2026 and 2027 due to divergent central bank policies [1] Group 2 - Nomura forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate will weaken in 2026, with target prices of 155.00 in Q1, 150.00 in Q2, 145.00 in Q3, and 140.00 in Q4, influenced by domestic political pressure and narrowing interest rate differentials [2] - Jefferies sees strong appeal in the Japanese stock market before 2026, expecting a 13% increase in the Topix index driven by corporate reforms and political leadership [3] - ING suggests that while the euro is nearing a two-month high against the dollar, betting on European Central Bank rate hikes may be premature, with potential for the EUR/USD to rise to 1.18 by year-end [3] Group 3 - CICC indicates that the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes quality and efficiency in China's economic policies, with a focus on addressing consumer, investment, and real estate concerns [5] - Dongfang Jincheng anticipates continued relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in 2026, aiming to stabilize the real estate market through various policy measures [5] - CITIC Securities expects new measures to address operational debt risks of financing platforms, indicating a broader approach to managing local government debt [6]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down before the market opens, with Dow futures down 0.18%, S&P 500 futures down 0.57%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.78% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX up 0.20%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.15%, France's CAC40 up 0.46%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.38% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is down 1.45% at $57.61 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 1.41% at $61.33 per barrel [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Market expectations indicate two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, despite the Fed's latest forecast suggesting only one cut [4] - The Fed has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast from 1.8% to 2.3% and expects inflation to decrease from 2.6% to 2.4% [4] Currency and Economic Outlook - Société Générale predicts a short-term bearish outlook for the US dollar, but expects it to regain strength by the end of 2026 due to the relative advantages of the US economy [5] - The bank highlights that weak US economic data, particularly in the labor market, is a core focus affecting the forex market [5] Shipping and Oil Industry - There is a significant shortage of oil tankers, leading to new vessels sailing empty to load crude oil, disrupting traditional shipping logic [6] - OPEC and non-OPEC producers have increased output, while sanctions on Russia and risks in the Red Sea have complicated shipping routes [6] Company Earnings and Performance - Broadcom (AVGO.US) is expected to report Q4 earnings with a projected revenue increase of 24.5% year-over-year to $17.5 billion, driven by AI spending [7] - Oracle (ORCL.US) reported increased spending on AI but failed to convert this into expected cloud revenue, causing its stock to drop over 11% in pre-market trading [8] - Adobe (ADBE.US) provided optimistic guidance for FY2026, expecting revenue between $25.9 billion and $26.1 billion, but the market response was muted due to ongoing concerns about AI profitability [9] - Synopsys (SNPS.US) reported Q4 revenue of $2.26 billion, a 38% increase, and provided a positive outlook for FY2026, exceeding market expectations [10] - Stellantis (STLA.US) is shifting its strategy under new CEO Antonio Filosa to prioritize sales growth over profit margins, aiming to regain market share in North America and Europe [11] Corporate Control and Political Dynamics - The control battle for Warner Bros. has intensified, with political implications as potential buyers Netflix and Paramount are scrutinized for their funding sources [12]

随着市场风险情绪回升，资金流出避险资产，转向其他领域，这成为黄金价格回落的关键因素。 本周四早些时候，黄金价格触及了周内的高点，但在进入欧洲交易时段前成功守住了4200美元的关键关口。 黄金依然保持着看跌的基调，面临着美元小幅反弹的压力。美元在美联储（Fed）议息会议后的跌势暂缓，并从10月24日以来的低点小幅反弹，成为金价下 行的主要压力。 美元有所回升，美联储鸽派的政策前景可能抑制美元升值空间，为黄金提供支撑。市场的不确定性依然较高，继续为黄金带来避险需求。 XAU/USD的空头应保持谨慎，当前金价受到支撑，但仍可能面临更深的调整。 在本周的美联储议息会议中，联储宣布将借款成本下调25个基点，并预计2026年只会有一次降息。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的讲话中强调，美国劳动力市场 存在下行风险，央行希望避免过度紧缩影响就业创造，这促使市场重新评估未来降息的可能性。 鲍威尔的鸽派言论令美元指数创下10月24日以来的新低，同时推动黄金价格攀升。 市场对美联储未来政策的解读偏向宽松，但鲍威尔未透露具体降息时间表，且未来降息的道路预计更加艰难。美联储决策中有鹰派委员反对，进一步加剧了 市场对美联储未来政策的不确定性，为 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $4206 per ounce, with a lack of follow-up buying support despite expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - Geopolitical uncertainties from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The focus remains on the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts and Chairman Powell's statements following the policy meeting [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices showed a strong rebound after hitting a low of $4169, with a daily close at $4108, indicating a bullish outlook [4] - The key support level is identified at $4195, which has turned from a resistance level to a strong support [4] - The suggested trading strategy is to maintain a bullish stance, focusing on buying on dips and monitoring resistance levels between $4230 and $4250 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - WTI crude oil is trading around $58.40, with market sentiment cautious due to a strong dollar and recovering supply [5] - Recent employment data from the U.S. indicates a resilient labor market, which may support the dollar and impact commodity prices [5] - The market is closely watching inventory data, as significant reductions could lead to a rebound in oil prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The current trend for oil is bearish, with prices testing the support level around $56 [6] - The MACD indicator suggests that bearish momentum is dominant, and the short-term outlook remains downwards [6] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on selling on rebounds, with resistance levels identified between $59.5 and $60.5, and support levels between $57.0 and $56.0 [6]

私人投资管理公司Neuberger Berman财富管理部门首席投资官Shannon Saccoci在最新备忘录中表示：无 论本周美联储是否降息，利率终将下行，并推动美国经济重新加速，为风险资产打开上涨空间。她指 出，尽管市场对12月10日美联储是否降息25个基点的预期在过去几周剧烈摇摆，但真正关键的是美联储 整体宽松的政策倾向——这对美国经济和风险市场具有建设性意义。Saccocia强调，尽管降息时机和幅 度的风险依然存在，但这并不会改变最终目的地：明年下半年联邦基金利率将更低、更宽松。 摘要周三(12月10日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4204一线下方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4200.49美元/ 盎司，下跌0.15%，最高触及4218.68美元/盎司，最低下探4199.73美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏 向下跌走势。 周三(12月10日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4204一线下方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4200.49美元/盎 司，下跌0.15%，最高触及4218.68美元/盎司，最低下探4199.73美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向 下跌走势。 【要闻速递】 分析师尼尔·基恩在一份报告中表示，围绕周三 ...

Seasonal Demand Shifts: The conclusion of the Diwali festival in India, a major global gold consumer, also contributed to a reduction in physical demand, removing one of the key supporting tailwinds for the price.Uncertainty Over Federal Reserve Policy: While expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts initially fueled gold's rally, ongoing uncertainty and a lack of precise data (partially due to a U.S. government shutdown in late fall) have contributed to market indecisiveness. The CME Group' ...

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 13498, with an opening price of 13631 CNY/kg and a current price of 13563 CNY/kg, reflecting an increase of 0.48% [1] - The highest price reached was 13882 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 13450 CNY/kg, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The overall trend for silver TD remains bullish despite a slight pullback, with support levels identified between 13000-13500 and resistance levels between 13800-14000 [3] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett is reported as the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, with potential implications for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [2] - The timeline suggests that Hassett's nomination could be announced by Christmas, with the earliest he could officially take over being June 2026 [2] - The first quarter following the new chair's nomination is critical for market expectations, with potential for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar to experience fluctuations based on the new chair's stance [2]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中国地产基金百人会） 著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，12月4日在接受彭博社以及日前和CNBC的对话中，谈及了美 联储降息、人民币汇率、AI科技等话题，并且对2026年的市场行情进行了展望。 洪灝指出，无论谁接任美联储主席，都将面临回购市场流动性紧张的局面，因此降息并扩表是必然选 择。 市场预期未来一年将有多次降息， 贵金属价格已反映宽松预期，他预测白银可能涨至80-100美元/盎司。 对于如火如荼的AI产业，洪灝则指出了一则风险，如果企业依赖信贷融资进行资本支出将是未来一个 潜在问题。 洪灝表示，美元处于长期下行趋势，大宗商品将因美元走弱和通胀预期保持强势。 人民币实际有效汇率被低估，有望升值至6.9以下，带动中国资产重估，明年A股可能表现优于H股。 此外，房地产市场调整已持续近五年，但行业仍需时间出清，救助规模或需约10万亿元。 展望2026年，洪灝表示，明年作为五年规划首年，政策支持力度可能加大，流动性环境改善，中国市场 或有望上涨20%以上。 投资报（liulishidian）整理精选了洪灝分享的精华内容如下： 无论谁出任美联储主席 降息并扩表是必然选择 主持人：围绕美联储 ...