本周多国央行政策动态将成市场焦点,周四欧洲央行料将降息25个基点至2%,为应对经济疲软迈出关键一 步,比降息本身更受关注的是行长拉加德的政策指引,任何"进一步宽松"或"暂停观望"的暗示都可能引发 欧元大幅波动。与此同时,加拿大央行周三预计将维持5%利率不变,尽管通胀意外回升,市场普遍预期其 仍将保持谨慎立场。投资者需密切关注两大央行对未来通胀与政策路径的评估,以捕捉市场交易机会。 本周美国非农数据将成为重点 本周金融市场迎来风云变幻的一周,6月首周不仅是传统意义上的"数据超级周",更叠加多国央行政策博 弈、美国就业数据考验以及特朗普关税突袭等重磅事件,多个风险点交织,市场或剧烈波动,高地集团作为 一家贵金属的投资资讯公司,将从本篇文章为着入点深入解析各大关键时刻,为投资者提供全景式交易参 考。 俄乌地缘局势分歧再度升级 据土耳其外交部6月1日消息,乌克兰与俄罗斯代表团将于6月2日13时在伊斯坦布尔契拉昂宫举行自2022 年冲突爆发以来的第二轮直接会谈,尽管外界期待此次会谈有望为局势降温提供契机,但双方在停火条 件、领土归属等核心问题上依然分歧严重,且战事持续升级,令谈判前景蒙上阴影。 乌克兰坚持国家主权与领土 ...

端午节后的首个交易日，内盘贵金属期货跳空高开，截至收盘，沪金、沪银期货主力合约的涨幅分别为 1.4%、2.85%。 "避险情绪再度升温是贵金属价格上涨的主要原因。"金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰表示，全球贸易摩擦 可能再度升级，市场避险情绪升温。5月末，特朗普宣布将把所有进口钢、铝关税从25%提高到50%，6 月4日正式生效。此外，"对等关税"的90天暂停期即将于7月初到期。目前美国仅与英国达成了贸易协 议，若与其他国家的贸易谈判无突破，"对等关税"可能恢复。数据方面，端午节期间公布的美国ISM制 造业PMI超预期下跌，随着关税政策对经济的负面影响持续传导，美国经济面临进一步的下行压力，利 好贵金属等避险资产。此外，地缘政治风险上升。中东方面，尽管美国和伊朗的谈判持续推进，但是进 展缓慢且充满不确定性，双方分歧较大。俄乌方面，虽然双方已经展开实质性的接触与谈判，但近期局 部冲突有所升级，未来地区冲突也有进一步加剧的风险。 展望后市，吴梓杰表示，短期内随着避险情绪进一步发酵，贵金属价格可能持续上涨。中期来看，贵金 属价格走势则仍取决于6月美国CPI数据、美联储议息会议结果和美国贸易政策变化等因素。如果通胀 继续回落 ...

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - The performance of commodity and alternative QDII funds has shown significant divergence this year, with precious metal funds performing well while energy funds have generally retreated [1][3] - Among 63 commodity funds, 60 have seen net value growth, representing a 95% success rate, while the three funds with net value declines are all energy-related [1] - In the alternative QDII category, several gold-themed funds have achieved net value growth rates exceeding 20%, with the highest reaching 31%, outperforming oil-themed funds [1] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have been on a downward trend since mid-January, with the WTI crude oil main contract price dropping to $60 per barrel, previously hitting a low of $54 per barrel [2] - Analysts suggest that while the weak oil price trend may continue, the market is absorbing negative factors, and there may be limited space for further short positions [2] - There is a mixed outlook for oil prices, with some analysts optimistic about short-term support due to rising market risk appetite and the upcoming traditional demand season, although long-term rebound potential appears limited [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Outlook - In contrast to oil, precious metal prices, particularly gold, have been strong this year, driven by risk aversion and declining overseas market interest rates [3] - The outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of continued strength in prices in the short term [3]

6月来的第一天，黄金价格再一次上涨到3400美元/盎司附近，上一次黄金在这个价格还是5月初，而且那时候是在4月的历史高点的回调下，二次看涨情绪没 有那么高。但是这一次上攻不同，是黄金价格萎靡了近一月的基础上上行的，所以会不会突破前期高点3500美元/盎司呢？ 这一次黄金价格上行，还是由老特的政府班子引起。当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从 25%提高至50%。而且该决定从明天(6月4日)起生效。贸易谈判重启，避险情绪上升，黄金价格上行。 对于支撑黄金价格的贸易谈判因素，我认为不会消亡，这是长时间支撑黄金价格上行的重要因素。特朗普的贸易战策略是多维度的，它左手挥完挥右手，不 赚的盆满钵满，难以结束，从以下各个点可以看出来。 1.重塑美国产业与贸易平衡。特朗普认为美国长期处于贸易逆差（尤其对墨西哥、中国、欧盟等国）损害了经济。他试图通过关税迫使贸易伙伴多购买美国 产品，将净进口由负转正。例如，2024年美国前三大贸易逆差来源为墨西哥、中国和加拿大，关税被用作谈判筹码以压缩赤字。 另一方面，从技术分析的角度来看，黄金价格的三角形态暂被突破 ，这是黄金高位震荡以 ...

黄金行情讲解中 相关链接 "俄乌谈判结束"避险情绪短暂褪去？黄金开盘高开后下跌，今夜震荡行情是否延续？TTPS团队交易学 长正在分享，立即观看！ ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储国际金融司成立 75 周年活动上发 表讲话。在市场高度关注美联储利率政策走向之际，鲍威尔并未在 讲话中就美国经济与未来利率前景发表看法。美国零售巨头塔吉特 第一季度销售大幅下滑 2.8%至 238.5 亿美元，可比销售下降 3.8%。 对关税和经济前景担忧下，公司预计 2025 财年销售额将出现低个 位数下滑，而此前预测为增长 1%。关税政策不确定性之际，美国经 济活动放缓，通胀趋于降温。美国 4 月 PPI 环比意外下跌 0.5%，其 中服务价格下降 0.7%，创 2009 年以来最大单月跌幅。零售销售环 比仅增长 0.1%，明显低于 3 月 1.7%的强劲增幅。制造业产值环比 下降 0.4%，出现六个月来的首次下降。美国一季度 GDP 年化季环 比初值录得-0.3%，低于市场预期的 0.3%，较上季度的 2.4%大幅回 落，为 2022 年一季度以来首次转负。从美国经济数据来看，下行 压力增长增加，但依然保持一定的韧性。 避险情绪再起，高位震荡偏多 摘 要： 当地时间 6 月 1 日，特朗普政府的官员们暗示，特朗普不打算 延长暂停部分高额"对等关税"的 90 天期限。乌克兰 6 月 ...

2025.06.03-06.06 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 黄金期货 趋势判断逻辑 近期，黄金市场受到美国国际贸易法院裁决的影响，加之市场对贸易政 策的不确定性，以及美联储公布的会议纪要揭示了经济前景的高不确定 性，失业率和通胀风险的上升，导致市场避险情绪有所增强。从长远来 看，地缘政治风险的不确定性、全球主要央行转向宽松政策的趋势，以 及去美元化趋势的加速，持续推动央行增加黄金购买需求。这些多重因 素将继续为金价提供支撑。 2 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金逢低配置黄金看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508下方支撑：768 －772，上方压力810－814。 n 本周策略建议 预期黄金主力合约2508短期震荡反复，建议观望。下方支撑： 738－746，上方压力800－808。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mystee ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on June 3, 2025. For example, stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate; gold, silver, copper, zinc, nickel, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, PVC, soybean oil, and palm oil futures will fluctuate strongly; industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and soybean meal futures will fluctuate weakly; natural rubber and 20 - number rubber futures will fluctuate weakly; ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures will fluctuate strongly; and tin and methanol futures will have wide - range fluctuations [2][3][4]. - The report also provides macro - economic information, including China's May PMI data, US tariff policies, inflation data, and statements from Federal Reserve officials, which have an impact on the futures market [9][14][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Forecast Stock Index Futures - On June 3, 2025, stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate. IF2506 has resistance levels at 3833 and 3850 points and support levels at 3798 and 3775 points; IH2506 has resistance levels at 2681 and 2689 points and support levels at 2644 and 2633 points; IC2506 has resistance levels at 5669 and 5700 points and support levels at 5585 and 5560 points; IM2506 has resistance levels at 6031 and 6075 points and support levels at 5905 and 5861 points [2]. - In June 2025, IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with corresponding resistance and support levels provided [36][37]. Treasury Bond Futures - On June 3, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 will likely fluctuate strongly, with resistance levels at 108.80 and 108.90 yuan and support levels at 108.62 and 108.45 yuan [2]. - On June 3, 2025, the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 will likely fluctuate strongly, with resistance levels at 119.6 and 120.0 yuan and support levels at 119.2 and 118.5 yuan [2]. Precious Metal Futures - On June 3, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2508 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 790.0 and 797.4 yuan/gram, with support levels at 777.3 and 772.6 yuan/gram. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of gold futures will likely have a strong wide - range fluctuation [65]. - On June 3, 2025, the silver futures main contract AG2508 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 8563 and 8600 yuan/kilogram, with support levels at 8249 and 8220 yuan/kilogram. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of silver futures will likely have a strong wide - range fluctuation [73]. Base Metal Futures - On June 3, 2025, the copper futures main contract CU2507 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 79000 and 79500 yuan/ton, with support levels at 77900 and 77600 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of copper futures will likely have a wide - range fluctuation [77]. - On June 3, 2025, the aluminum futures main contract AL2507 will likely fluctuate and consolidate, with support levels at 20000 and 19950 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 20160 and 20200 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of aluminum futures will likely have a wide - range fluctuation [83]. - On June 3, 2025, the zinc futures main contract ZN2507 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 22510 and 22700 yuan/ton, with support levels at 22060 and 22010 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of zinc futures will likely fluctuate weakly [91]. - On June 3, 2025, the lead futures main contract PB2507 will likely fluctuate and consolidate, with support levels at 16540 and 16500 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 16740 and 16800 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of lead futures will likely have a weak wide - range fluctuation [93]. - On June 3, 2025, the nickel futures main contract NI2507 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 122000 and 122600 yuan/ton, with support levels at 120500 and 120000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of nickel futures will likely have a weak wide - range fluctuation [98]. - On June 3, 2025, the tin futures main contract SN2507 will likely have a wide - range fluctuation, with support levels at 248500 and 246600 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 252300 and 254000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of tin futures will likely have a weak wide - range fluctuation [102]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On June 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures main contract SI2507 will likely fluctuate weakly, break through support levels at 7050 and 6900 yuan/ton, and set a new low since listing [108]. - On June 3, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2507 will likely fluctuate weakly, with support levels at 58700 and 57400 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 60400 and 61200 yuan/ton [108]. - On June 3, 2025, the rebar futures main contract RB2510 will likely fluctuate weakly, break through support levels at 2920 and 2900 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2961 and 2981 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of rebar futures will likely have a weak wide - range fluctuation [110]. - On June 3, 2025, the hot - rolled coils futures main contract HC2510 will likely fluctuate weakly, break through support levels at 3050 and 3022 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3076 and 3100 yuan/ton [117]. - On June 3, 2025, the iron ore futures main contract I2509 will likely fluctuate weakly, break through support levels at 691 and 685 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 705 and 710 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of iron ore futures will likely have a wide - range fluctuation [119]. - On June 3, 2025, the coking coal futures main contract JM2509 will likely fluctuate weakly, break through support levels at 700 and 680 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 726 and 740 yuan/ton [126]. - On June 3, 2025, the glass futures main contract FG509 will likely fluctuate weakly, break through support levels at 970 and 950 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 985 and 997 yuan/ton [127]. - On June 3, 2025, the soda ash futures main contract SA509 will likely fluctuate weakly, break through support levels at 1170 and 1160 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1203 and 1217 yuan/ton, and set a new low since listing [129]. - On June 3, 2025, the crude oil futures main contract SC2507 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 463 and 470 yuan/barrel, with support levels at 451 and 448 yuan/barrel. In June 2025, the main continuous contract of crude oil futures will likely have a weak wide - range fluctuation [132]. - On June 3, 2025, the fuel oil futures main contract FU2507 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 3037 and 3058 yuan/ton, with support levels at 2929 and 2910 yuan/ton [7]. - On June 3, 2025, the PTA futures main contract TA509 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 4790 and 4840 yuan/ton, with support levels at 4700 and 4690 yuan/ton [7]. - On June 3, 2025, the PVC futures main contract V2509 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 4806 and 4836 yuan/ton, with support levels at 4715 and 4700 yuan/ton [7]. - On June 3, 2025, the methanol futures main contract MA509 will likely have a wide - range fluctuation, with support levels at 2195 and 2176 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 2221 and 2238 yuan/ton [7]. Agricultural Futures - On June 3, 2025, the soybean meal futures main contract M2509 will likely fluctuate weakly, break through support levels at 2932 and 2919 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2978 and 2996 yuan/ton [7]. - On June 3, 2025, the soybean oil futures main contract Y2509 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 7716 and 7776 yuan/ton, with support levels at 7638 and 7616 yuan/ton [7]. - On June 3, 2025, the palm oil futures main contract P2509 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 8206 and 8260 yuan/ton, with support levels at 8054 and 8036 yuan/ton [8]. - On June 3, 2025, the natural rubber futures main contract RU2509 will likely fluctuate weakly, break through support levels at 13200 and 13000 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 13400 and 13550 yuan/ton [8]. - On June 3, 2025, the 20 - number rubber futures main contract NR2507 will likely fluctuate weakly, break through support levels at 11500 and 11370 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 11870 and 12000 yuan/ton [8]. Macro - economic Information - China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The new export order index and import index increased by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points respectively [9]. - The US plans to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, 2025, which has an impact on the global economy and the futures market [14]. - The US 4 - month core PCE price index increased by 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous value. The "super core inflation index" decreased for the first time since April 2020. Traders still bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September [18]. - Federal Reserve officials' statements indicate that if the US tariff measures are not as radical as initially announced, the policy interest rate may be significantly reduced in the next 15 months [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in international gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion and economic concerns, with potential long-term benefits for gold and gold-related stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - International gold prices have resumed an upward trend, with COMEX gold surpassing $3,400 per ounce and London spot gold rising by 2.5% to exceed $3,370 per ounce [1]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion due to increased tariffs on steel and aluminum by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from the EU, alongside escalating geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including the U.S. May ISM Manufacturing PMI and the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, fell below expectations, indicating negative impacts from tariff conflicts on the economy [1]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is noted as a contributing factor to the rise in gold prices [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Gold stocks are highlighted as having a higher investment value compared to gold assets, with strong first-quarter earnings reports from gold mining companies exceeding market expectations [2]. - The ongoing upward movement in gold prices and the expansion of gold mining companies are expected to sustain high growth in corporate earnings [2]. - Current valuations of major gold stocks are below historical averages, suggesting potential for systemic valuation increases as gold prices rise [2]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on gold stocks and assets, seizing the historical opportunity as the gold industry transitions from "cyclical beta" to "growth alpha" [2].

Overall Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Global trade tensions are escalating, leading to increased short - term volatility in global markets. The market has a mixed attitude towards the trade situation, with optimism about trade dialogues but also concerns about tariff hikes. In China, the May PMI data shows economic expansion, yet US trade restrictions pose a short - term dampening effect on domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. For example, stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a cautious approach to long - positions; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: US "steel tariffs" and EU's potential counter - measures, along with intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict, have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market remains optimistic about US trade dialogues, and the US dollar index is generally weak. - Domestic: China's May PMI data indicates economic expansion, but US restrictions in semiconductor and other fields, as well as tariff hikes, pose short - term pressure on domestic risk appetite. Asset suggestions include short - term cautious long - positions for stocks, high - level observation for bonds, and different trading stances for various commodity sectors [2]. Stocks - Affected by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, domestic stocks have declined slightly. The May PMI data is positive, but US trade restrictions and tariff hikes suppress domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on US trade policies and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals showed a volatile pattern, with COMEX gold down 1.33% to $3313.1 per ounce and silver down 1.68%. Fed's cautious stance, Trump's tariff policies, and geopolitical risks have affected the market. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be strong, and in the long - term, the upward logic remains solid. Attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Before the holiday, the spot market was stable, but the futures price declined. During the holiday, trade conflicts increased risk aversion. In the short - term, the steel market is expected to be weak as supply remains high while demand is affected by trade tensions [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holiday, prices were weak. Although iron - water production has declined, the market is divided on its future path. Supply may increase in the second quarter, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Before the holiday, prices were flat. Demand is fair, but silicon manganese is in an industry - wide loss, and silicon iron has weak downstream procurement. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase is in line with expectations, and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Iran, along with Canadian wildfires, have pushed up oil prices [8]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices are expected to follow. Demand is currently average, and inventory depletion has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [8]. - **PX**: The price is high, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a slight decline later due to potential demand reduction [9]. - **PTA**: Downstream production has decreased, and supply is expected to increase, leading to a weakening structure in the future [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has contracted, but downstream production cuts limit inventory depletion. The price will slightly increase [9]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a weak and volatile pattern, with concerns about downstream production and order release [9]. - **Methanol**: Import and port inventory are increasing, and prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The price is likely to move downward [10]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand situation is expected to worsen, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market expects a 50% tariff on copper, driving up prices. The copper ore supply is tight, but demand may decline in the short - term, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [11]. - **Aluminum**: The 50% tariff on aluminum has led to a slight increase in prices. Supply is high, and demand is expected to decline, but there is still an export rush effect. It is recommended to observe [12]. - **Tin**: High tariffs, potential supply increases from Myanmar, and seasonal demand decline pose pressure on prices, but it has stabilized after a significant drop [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is supported by a weak US dollar but faces challenges such as good planting conditions in the US, high Brazilian inventory, and slow sales due to trade tensions. It may maintain a weak range - bound trend [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Oil mills' inventory is expected to recover, and the lack of upward momentum in US soybeans affects soybean meal. Rapeseed meal has supply uncertainties. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may shrink [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: During the holiday, oils and fats were under pressure. The energy market is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, and domestic oils may continue to decline after the holiday, with the soybean - palm oil spread likely to remain inverted [14]. - **Hogs**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term correction in near - month contracts [15]. - **Corn**: New wheat listing may replace some corn demand, but in the long - run, corn is likely to rise, and it will maintain a range - bound trend [15].