| Million >国技期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月17日 | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，走势偏弱，棉花现货销售基差整体持稳;2025/26南疆机采3129/29B/杂3.5内主流较低销售基差在 CF01+950 "1050，较多报价在1050及以上，疆内自提。新棉集中上市，叠加需求一般、给价格带来一定的压力，但目前现货价格 总体持稳，预计郑棉仍难摆脱区间震荡的走势。截至11月13号，全国累积加工皮棉390. ...

| Million >国技期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月17日 | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，走势偏弱，棉花现货销售基差整体持稳;2025/26南疆机采3129/29B/杂3.5内主流较低销售基差在 CF01+950 "1050，较多报价在1050及以上，疆内自提。新棉集中上市，叠加需求一般、给价格带来一定的压力，但目前现货价格 总体持稳，预计郑棉仍难摆脱区间震荡的走势。截至11月13号，全国累积加工皮棉390. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights significant fluctuations in various commodities, with lithium carbonate experiencing a strong price surge, while other commodities like gold and copper face notable capital outflows [5][4][17] - Lithium carbonate's main contract hit a limit-up, increasing by 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a new high since July 2024, driven by strong market sentiment and ongoing inventory depletion [5][12] - The market is witnessing a mixed performance, with some commodities like caustic soda and crude oil showing increased positions, indicating new capital inflow and heightened trading activity [3][4] Group 2 - The palm oil export volume from Malaysia for the first half of November decreased by 10% compared to the previous month, indicating a potential supply constraint in the market [6] - The organic silicon industry is set to hold a meeting on November 18 to discuss production cuts, which could impact supply dynamics in the sector [7] - A coal mine in the Lüliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown, with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons, which may affect coal supply in the region [8] Group 3 - The market for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is under pressure due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, leading to a decline in prices as market expectations for a December rate cut are adjusted [17][18] - The domestic gold jewelry market is experiencing price increases, but this may suppress demand in the short term as consumers adjust to the new pricing [18] - The shipping index for the European route saw a significant increase, but expectations for price hikes during the year-end peak season are tempered by supply concerns [14][15]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/11/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,792.00 | +44.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,566.00 | +76.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 595,470.00 | - ...

2025年11月17日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位，弱势震荡 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化。 | 甲醇 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差(华东) | 元/吨 | 5 | -19.5 | 24.5 | 125.6% | 周度 | | 内地甲醇样本企业库存 | 万吨 | 36.93 | 38.64 | -1.72 | -4.4% | 周度 | | 港口甲醇库存 | 万吨 | 154.36 | 148.71 | 5.65 | 3.8% | 周度 | | 周产量 | 万吨 | 197.60 | 198.89 | -1.29 | -0.65% | 周度 | | 内蒙古煤制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | -245.2 | -211.4 | -33.8 | -16.98% | 周度 | | 华北焦炉气制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | 122 | 148 | -26 | -17.57% | 周度 | | 西南天然气制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | -440 | ...

每经AI快讯，11月17日，碳酸锂期货主力合约触及涨停，涨幅9%，报95200元/吨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to take a short - position when the price is high [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 14, 2025, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the price of log 2601 was 788.5, up 5.0 (0.64%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 795.5, up 2.0 (0.25%); while log 2511 and log 2605 remained unchanged [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained stable, with a 0% change. The prices of different specifications of radiation pine and spruce in these ports did not change from the previous day [2] - **Import Cost**: The import theoretical cost on November 14 was 808.86 yuan, down 0.91 yuan from the previous day, with a 0% change. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.094, down 0.01 from the previous day, also with a 0% change [2] Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 24.7 (13.99%) from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54.0, up 8.0 (17.39%) [2] - **Weekly Forecast (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16)**: The number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a decrease of 4 from the previous week, a 25% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume was about 39.5 (in ten thousand cubic meters), a decrease of 13.6 from the previous week, a 26% week - on - week decrease [3] Inventory - **Main Port Inventory (Weekly)**: As of November 7, the total inventory in Chinese ports was 293.0 (in ten thousand cubic meters), an increase of 5.0 (1.74%) from October 31. In Shandong, it was 191.50 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 3.2 (1.70%); in Jiangsu, it was 82.45 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.2 (0.24%) [2][3] Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of November 7, the average daily outbound volume in China was 6.63 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.35 (6%) from October 31. In Shandong, it was 3.79 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.60 (19%); in Jiangsu, it was 2.28 (in ten thousand cubic meters), down 0.15 (-6%) [3]

| 棕榈油：短期利空暂充分，关注产地去库进程 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆端缺乏驱动，震荡运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：美农报告无超额利多，或跟随美豆回调 | 5 | | 豆一：或跟随豆类市场调整 | 5 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 7 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 8 | | 棉花：新棉上市压力仍压制期价 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：近弱远强 | 11 | | 生猪：肥标价差走弱，降温涨价预期落空 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年11月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 17 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期利空暂充分，关注产地去库进程 豆油：美豆端缺乏驱动，震荡运行 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,644 | 涨跌幅 -1.23% | 收盘价（夜盘） 8,712 | 涨跌幅 0.79% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-11-17 生猪价格上涨乏力，玉米关注上方 2200 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货震荡偏弱，LH2601 合约报收 11775 元/吨，较前 周结算价下跌 1.01%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.96 元/公斤，环比下 跌 0.02 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 11 月 14 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-114.81 元/头，环比下降 25.6 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-205.64 元/头，环比下降 30.1 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.38，周环 比下降 0.15。 上周全国生猪现货价格缓慢下跌，周初部分企业出栏有限，局 部成交略有溢价；但随着养殖场出栏积极性提高，散户挺价情绪松 动，叠加需求端整体欠佳，生猪价格承压下跌。目前来看，随着价 格下调后，养殖端低价认卖情绪降低，但考虑到需求端支撑有限， 难以对猪价形成强力提振，叠加前期二育补栏猪源或陆续出栏，阶 段性供强需弱格局难以扭转，生猪价格上涨动力不足，预计短期低 位震荡为主，后续继续重点关注养殖端出栏节奏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory issue for the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue until Iran restricts gas supply [1]. LLDPE & PP - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight inventory build - up under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Suggest to gradually stop losses and reduce positions for previous short positions as the market is still in an oversupply situation [5]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. Supply - side factors may keep raw material prices high, while demand is weak. The market is in a seasonal inventory accumulation period, and if raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further price decline; otherwise, prices may range between 15000 - 15500 [7]. Glass & Soda Ash - Soda ash has a large - scale oversupply situation. Although the spot has rebounded recently, the long - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Glass sales have weakened recently, and although there is short - term demand support, the long - term outlook is also bearish due to the real - estate situation [9]. PVC & Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with weak demand from the main downstream alumina industry. Its price is expected to oscillate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, with supply remaining high and demand weakening, and its price is expected to continue to be weak [10]. Crude Oil - The crude oil market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Although recent news has supported prices, the upward space is limited due to OPEC+ production increase pressure and high US inventories. Brent crude may trade in the range of 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [11]. Ester Industry Chain - PX supply is relatively high, and although there is short - term demand support, the rebound is expected to be limited. PTA is expected to be in a tight balance in November but loose from December to Q1 next year, with limited price rebound space. Ethylene glycol is facing inventory build - up pressure. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand outlook, and bottle - chip supply - demand is loose [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down on November 14 compared to November 13, with decreases of 2.28% and 2.04% respectively. The regional spreads and basis also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44%, while port inventory increased by 1.75%, and social inventory increased by 0.49% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工率 increased, while some downstream开工率 decreased, such as the external - purchased MTO装置开工率 which decreased by 2.38% [1]. LLDPE & PP - **Price and Spread**: L2601 and L2605 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 decreased slightly. The basis of PE and PP in North China and East China increased [5]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory decreased by 1.86%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 3.35%, and trade - dealer inventory increased by 1.73% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.66%, and downstream加权开工率 decreased by 0.80%. PP装置开工率 increased by 2.28%, and downstream加权开工率 increased by 0.3% [5]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Some spot prices remained unchanged, while the basis and some spreads changed. For example, the full - latex basis increased by 29.66% [7]. - **Production and Consumption**: September production in some countries changed, and tire production and export also changed. For example, September Thai production decreased by 5.45%, and tire export in September decreased by 10.65% [7]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Tire开工率 was stable or decreased slightly, and inventory increased. For example, the bonded - area inventory increased by 0.40% [7]. Glass & Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions were mostly stable or decreased slightly. The basis of glass and soda ash increased [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率 and weekly production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories increased [9]. - **Real - Estate Data**: Real - estate new - start, construction, completion, and sales areas all showed negative growth to varying degrees [9]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: Some PVC and caustic soda prices were stable or changed slightly. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda开工率 decreased slightly, and PVC总开工率 decreased by 3.2%. The downstream开工率 of both also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased [10]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased on November 14 compared to November 13. Some spreads also changed significantly, such as the WTI M1 - M3 spread which increased by 82.35% [11]. - **Market Situation**: The market is affected by multiple factors, with a weak supply - demand pattern but short - term price support [11]. Ester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude increased, and downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows changed. PX, PTA, and MEG prices and spreads also changed [14]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, and MEG port inventory was expected to increase [14].