Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland market. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina, as well as coal - chemical enterprises, are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In September, maintenance was flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is large in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [7]. - **PP**: The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina, as well as mid - stream enterprises, are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the realization of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 11 to 17, 2025, the power - coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2067 to 2020, the South China spot price decreased from 2073 to 1990, and the Northwest price converted to the delivery - location price decreased from 2608 to 2560 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 11 to 17, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene price decreased from 740 to an unspecified value. The North China LL price decreased from 6770 to 6810, and the East China LL price increased from 6950 to 7010. The two - oil inventory decreased from 12073 to 12017 [7]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 11 to 17, 2025, Shandong propylene price increased from 5750 to 5830. The East China PP price decreased from 6375 to 6360, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 14629 to 14621 [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 11 to 17, 2025, Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 807 to 792. The calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China remained at 4570, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 90 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PG main contract is running strongly. The basis is 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread is 93 (+21). The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4364 (-10), Shandong at 4440 (+60), and South China at 4460 (+10); ether - after carbon four is 4630 (+130). The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and the domestic chemical market is strong with the expectation of the civil market strengthening in the peak season, but the futures price is over - valued. Attention should be paid to the weather and the situation of cold snaps in the US [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4364 (+0), in Shandong was 4400 (+0), and in South China was 4390 (-70). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4670 (+40). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -28 (-42) and a 12 - 01 month spread of 82 (-12). FEI was 503 (+1) and CP was 483 (+2) dollars per ton [4]. Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis decreased by 101, and the 12 - 01 month spread increased by 21. The prices of the cheapest deliverable in different regions and ether - after carbon four changed. The outer - market paper goods rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month spread strengthened, and the internal - external price difference weakened. The premium strengthened, and the freight weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread decreased, the naphtha crack spread changed little, and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene recovered slightly, the profit of alkylation units worsened, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. Domestic production decreased slightly, arrivals were limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and ports destocked. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71). Overall, the domestic chemical market is strong, the civil market has the expectation of strengthening in the peak season, but the futures price is over - valued, and the international propane market pattern is loose [4].

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold prices experienced significant volatility, initially breaking through $4050/oz with a daily increase of 0.14%, followed by a rapid decline, losing key support levels at $4040, $4030, $4020, and $4010/oz, with a maximum daily drop of 1.87% [1][2] - New York futures gold also saw fluctuations, dropping from above $4050/oz (with a daily decrease of 0.55%) to below $4030/oz, with a maximum daily decline of 2.07% [3][4] - Goldman Sachs indicated that central banks may significantly purchase gold in November, predicting gold prices could rise to $4900/oz by the end of 2026 [6] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - Goldman Sachs adjusted its outlook for oil prices, forecasting average prices for Brent and WTI crude oil to drop to $56/barrel and $52/barrel by 2026, respectively, due to strong global supply (excluding Russia), leading to a significant surplus of 2 million barrels per day [7] - However, it is expected that oil prices will rebound to long-term target levels of $80/barrel for Brent and $76/barrel for WTI by the end of 2028 [8] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - Federal Reserve official Waller signaled a key policy direction, supporting a 25 basis point rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting, while expressing caution about a 50 basis point cut, noting that a 25 basis point reduction would not restore employment growth to previous levels [9][10][11] - It was also noted that U.S. GDP growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 [12] - In the U.S. stock market, major indices closed lower, with the Dow down 1.18%, Nasdaq down 0.84%, and S&P down 0.91%, while many popular Chinese concept stocks fell significantly, with Xpeng down over 10% and Manbang down over 11% [13][14]

Strong domestic and export demand for U.S. corn, as confirmed with Friday’s USDA data, should at least keep a floor under corn futures prices in the coming weeks and months. The resumption of USDA export sales data will be welcomed by corn traders. More trade deals being inked between the U.S. and other countries should also improve global demand for U.S. corn.The focus of corn and soybean traders is turning more to growing weather in South American corn and soybean regions. Some areas in Brazil and Argenti ...

| Million >国技期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月17日 | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，走势偏弱，棉花现货销售基差整体持稳;2025/26南疆机采3129/29B/杂3.5内主流较低销售基差在 CF01+950 "1050，较多报价在1050及以上，疆内自提。新棉集中上市，叠加需求一般、给价格带来一定的压力，但目前现货价格 总体持稳，预计郑棉仍难摆脱区间震荡的走势。截至11月13号，全国累积加工皮棉390. ...

| Million >国技期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月17日 | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，走势偏弱，棉花现货销售基差整体持稳;2025/26南疆机采3129/29B/杂3.5内主流较低销售基差在 CF01+950 "1050，较多报价在1050及以上，疆内自提。新棉集中上市，叠加需求一般、给价格带来一定的压力，但目前现货价格 总体持稳，预计郑棉仍难摆脱区间震荡的走势。截至11月13号，全国累积加工皮棉390. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights significant fluctuations in various commodities, with lithium carbonate experiencing a strong price surge, while other commodities like gold and copper face notable capital outflows [5][4][17] - Lithium carbonate's main contract hit a limit-up, increasing by 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a new high since July 2024, driven by strong market sentiment and ongoing inventory depletion [5][12] - The market is witnessing a mixed performance, with some commodities like caustic soda and crude oil showing increased positions, indicating new capital inflow and heightened trading activity [3][4] Group 2 - The palm oil export volume from Malaysia for the first half of November decreased by 10% compared to the previous month, indicating a potential supply constraint in the market [6] - The organic silicon industry is set to hold a meeting on November 18 to discuss production cuts, which could impact supply dynamics in the sector [7] - A coal mine in the Lüliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown, with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons, which may affect coal supply in the region [8] Group 3 - The market for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is under pressure due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, leading to a decline in prices as market expectations for a December rate cut are adjusted [17][18] - The domestic gold jewelry market is experiencing price increases, but this may suppress demand in the short term as consumers adjust to the new pricing [18] - The shipping index for the European route saw a significant increase, but expectations for price hikes during the year-end peak season are tempered by supply concerns [14][15]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/11/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,792.00 | +44.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,566.00 | +76.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 595,470.00 | - ...

2025年11月17日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位，弱势震荡 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化。 | 甲醇 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差(华东) | 元/吨 | 5 | -19.5 | 24.5 | 125.6% | 周度 | | 内地甲醇样本企业库存 | 万吨 | 36.93 | 38.64 | -1.72 | -4.4% | 周度 | | 港口甲醇库存 | 万吨 | 154.36 | 148.71 | 5.65 | 3.8% | 周度 | | 周产量 | 万吨 | 197.60 | 198.89 | -1.29 | -0.65% | 周度 | | 内蒙古煤制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | -245.2 | -211.4 | -33.8 | -16.98% | 周度 | | 华北焦炉气制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | 122 | 148 | -26 | -17.57% | 周度 | | 西南天然气制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | -440 | ...

每经AI快讯，11月17日，碳酸锂期货主力合约触及涨停，涨幅9%，报95200元/吨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...