| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，未来十五天降雨恢复，按照 CPC 月度展 | | | | 望来看，5 月美国五大湖地区存在降雨不足的问题，但 6 月展望顺利。国内方面， | | | | 国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入 | | | | 累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为缓和。 | | | | 5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利空豆粕， | | | | 但由于 10%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响有限，利 | | | | 空远月豆粕价格。美豆种植进入天气炒作阶段，市场做空谨慎，关注后续降雨情况。 | | | | 5 月美农报告偏利多。豆粕昨日小幅收涨，但短期空头格局依然占据主导，关注反 | | | | 弹后逢高做空机会。主力【2860，2930】 | | 菜粕 | 短期下跌 | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比调增，但 5 月至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term cautious bullish on the single - side strategy, positive spread for the inter - period strategy, and no suggestion for the inter - variety strategy [3] Core View - The market's intention to ship has increased, and the spot basis has declined. The price of ethylene glycol has adjusted and the basis has weakened. The production profit has changed, and the inventory may continue to decline. The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows that the Sino - US negotiation has made positive progress, the supply - side has tightened liquidity, and the demand - side has strong support [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4461 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan/ton or - 1.00% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4571 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton or - 1.59% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 108 yuan/ton (down 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 12 US dollars/ton (up 20 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was 301 yuan/ton (up 194 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific content provided in the given text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load remains stable at a high level, and the average polyester load in May may increase instead of decreasing, exceeding market expectations. The US textile and clothing orders from China have decreased significantly, and US orders are expected to partially recover [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 75.1 tons (down 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 66.4 tons (down 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.9 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 5.5 tons, so the inventory may continue to decline [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the overall supply of nickel elements is in surplus, with significant upward pressure but cost support at the bottom. It is expected to show a weak oscillatory trend in the near - term range, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on rallies [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although the price rebounded due to the impact of the Philippine nickel ore export ban and tariff adjustments, the overall supply of stainless steel is in surplus, with large upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main nickel contract 2506 opened at 126,100 yuan/ton and closed at 123,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.64% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 137,729 lots, and the open interest was 63,702 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract showed a downward trend. The trading volume and open interest increased slightly compared to the previous trading day. China's social financing scale and new RMB loans from January to April were lower than market expectations, while the M2 money supply growth rate increased by 1 percentage point in April. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased slightly in the morning, but the nickel price fell again during the day. Downstream enterprises mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums of various brands were mostly stable. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons to 23,344 tons, and LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons to 199,146 tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2506 opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,995 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,580 lots, and the open interest was 127,690 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract also showed a downward trend. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased. The shortage of nickel ore supply still exists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at + 26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by 0.65 - 1 US dollars, with the overall price rising slightly. There were no new nickel - iron transactions recently. In the spot market, the stainless - steel price on the futures market fell, the inquiry and trading atmosphere weakened significantly, and the transactions were mainly small orders for rigid demand. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium for 304/2B was 305 - 505 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 941.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report The market atmosphere continues to be weak, with downstream buyers making purchases based on rigid demand. Spot prices in Shandong, North China, and East China regions remain weak, while other regions are stable. The overall supply is sufficient, with a reduction in arrivals and expected increase in domestic refinery supply after maintenance. Demand is in a downturn, with the combustion demand entering the off - season and chemical demand being weak due to profit issues. After the easing of the trade war, downstream buyers are mostly in a wait - and - see state, and the growth of purchasing power is limited. The strategy for the single - side is to expect a volatile market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Regional Prices on May 15**: Shandong market: 4,570 - 4,750 yuan; Northeast market: 4,400 - 4,840 yuan; North China market: 4,700 - 4,855 yuan; East China market: 4,800 - 5,080 yuan; Yangtze River region market: 4,920 - 5,200 yuan; Northwest market: 4,600 - 4,750 yuan; South China market: 4,900 - 5,050 yuan [1]. - **China's East and South China Frozen Cargo Arrival Prices in the First Half of June 2025**: In East China, propane is 620 dollars/ton (4,911 yuan/ton in RMB), and butane is 570 dollars/ton (4,515 yuan/ton in RMB), both stable. In South China, propane is 616 dollars/ton (4,880 yuan/ton in RMB), and butane is 566 dollars/ton (4,484 yuan/ton in RMB), both stable [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Spot prices in Shandong, North China, and East China continue to be weak, while other regions are stable. Downstream buyers make purchases based on rigid demand and have a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Supply: Arrivals have decreased, and domestic refinery supply is expected to increase after maintenance. Overall supply is sufficient. Demand: Combustion demand enters the off - season, chemical demand is weak due to profit issues, and downstream buyers are mostly in a wait - and - see state after the trade - war easing, with limited growth in purchasing power [1]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Volatile [2]. - **Inter - period**: None [2]. - **Inter - variety**: None [2]. - **Spot - futures**: None [2]. - **Options**: None [2]. Figures The report includes figures showing various prices and trading data, such as the spot prices of civil liquefied gas and ether - post carbon four in different regions, and the closing prices, trading volume, and open interest of PG futures contracts [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have stabilized, and the futures market has rebounded this week. The supply side is under pressure, and cost support has weakened recently. With the approaching of the wet season in the southwest, there is a possibility of production resumption. The demand side is mainly based on rigid procurement, and consumption remains relatively weak. Polysilicon may further reduce production, and organic silicon enterprises face high cost pressure. The overall industry inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are still relatively high, and attention should be paid to the production resumption in the southwest wet season and the impact of macro - sentiment [2] - The recent polysilicon futures market is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and warehouse receipt delivery, resulting in intensified market fluctuations. The increase in warehouse receipts yesterday was significant, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of this increase [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 opened at 8450 yuan/ton and closed at 8410 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 124014 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 15, 2025, was 66433 lots, a change of - 98 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream silicon in many other regions also remained stable, while the price of 97 silicon decreased in some cases [1] - The consumption side showed signs of improvement. The domestic high - temperature rubber downstream and terminal enterprises started to purchase. The main reason was that the volume of foreign trade orders increased due to the reduction of trade war tariffs, the domestic downstream production started to increase, the willingness to purchase raw materials strengthened, and the trading volume recovered [1] Strategy - Not provided in the content Risk - Not provided in the content Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures maintained a wide - range fluctuation, opening at 38100 yuan/ton and closing at 37920 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.68% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 37985 lots (44692 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 136753 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 37.00 - 40.50 yuan/kg (- 0.75 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg [4] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory also significantly decreased. The newly - counted polysilicon inventory was 25.00 (a month - on - month change of - 2.27%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW (a month - on - month change of 7.22%), the weekly polysilicon output was 21400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW (a month - on - month change of 0.50%) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided. For example, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.95 yuan/piece (- 0.03 yuan/piece), and the price of efficient PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell for hedging at high prices [4] - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None Risk - Production resumption in the southwest and production suspension in the northwest [4] - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Industry self - discipline's impact on upstream and downstream operations [7] - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [7] - The impact of capital sentiment [7] - Policy disturbances [7] - Macro and capital sentiment [3] - The operation situation of organic silicon enterprises [3]

棉价窄幅震荡，郑糖跟随外盘波动 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13415元/吨，较前一日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.22%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14469元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨，现货基差CF09+1054，较前一日变动+70；3128B棉全国均价14524元/吨， 较前一日变动+40元/吨，现货基差CF09+1109，较前一日变动+70。 近期市场资讯，据CAI公布的数据统计显示，截至2025年5月11日当周，印度棉花周度上市量3.1万吨，同比下滑27%； 印度2024/25年度的棉花累计上市量453.2万吨，同比下滑7%。CAI累计上市量达24/25年度预测平衡表产量（495万 吨）的92%，同比快4%。印度棉上市环比小幅下滑，上市进度放缓，同比领先幅度收窄。进入上市末期，上市速 度明显放缓。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进展，降低关税的幅度远超出市场预期，中美经贸关系 快速缓和，支撑棉价偏强运行。国际方面，随着北半球陆续进入播种期，关注焦点已逐渐转移到新季供应，美棉 新年度缩种预期较强，支撑ICE美棉期价。不过近期美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is expected to cool down after the previous macro - positive factors are digested. The price of PX has adjusted due to the decline in raw material prices. Although the supply of Asian PX is tightening, the demand is also higher than expected, and it will still be in a de - stocking phase in the next few months. PTA prices are expected to be mainly driven by costs, with short - term prices running strongly. The polyester bottle - chip market is currently in a state of relatively high supply, and downstream demand is mainly focused on consuming previous inventories. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On May 15, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, and xylene all decreased. The settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.62/barrel, down 2.42%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil was $64.53/barrel, down 2.36%; the spot price of naphtha was $572/ton, down 3.05%; and the spot price of xylene was $709/ton, down 3.08% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,798 yuan/ton, down 1.56%; the settlement price was 4,824 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 5,103 yuan/ton, up 3.45% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,762 yuan/ton, down 1.72%; the settlement price was 6,806 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,817 yuan/ton [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,116 yuan/ton, down 1.35%; the settlement price was 6,154 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [1] - **Downstream**: On May 15, 2025, the prices of most downstream products increased slightly. The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 0.69% [2] Operating Conditions - On May 15, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged. The operating rate of PX was 73.32%, the PTA factory load rate was 74.41%, the polyester factory load rate was 91.34%, and the bottle - chip factory load rate was 85.13%. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 3.83 percentage points to 68.10% [1] Production and Sales Rates - On May 15, 2025, the production and sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased. The production and sales rate of polyester filament was 36%, down 16 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 44%, down 17 percentage points; and the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 41%, down 52 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategies - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,798 yuan/ton, down 1.11%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.35 million lots; the 2509 contract closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, down 1.46%, with an intraday trading volume of 30,500 lots; the PR 2507 contract closed at 6,116 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with an intraday trading volume of 50,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant drop in oil prices and its impact on the rubber market, suggesting that the recent bullish trend in rubber prices may come to an abrupt halt due to expectations of increased supply that could exceed forecasts [1] Group 1: Oil Market Impact - Oil prices have experienced a sharp decline, which is expected to have a cascading effect on related markets, including rubber [1] - The market is speculating that the increase in supply may be greater than anticipated, leading to potential adjustments in pricing dynamics [1] Group 2: Rubber Market Response - The previously ongoing rally in rubber prices has come to a sudden stop, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - Investors are closely monitoring supply levels and market reactions to the recent changes in oil prices, which could influence future pricing strategies in the rubber sector [1]

金十期货正在直播 地缘冲突缓和，黄金原油风险溢价回吐，期市后市如何布局？期货资深研究员Leo将分析当前黄金、原 油及其他热门期货品种的市场行情，洞察品种基本面以及大宗商品的未来走势。立即进入直播间。 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. Core Viewpoints - EG's main contract closed at 4506 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan/ton (+3.61%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4645 yuan/ton, up 179 yuan/ton (+4.01%); the spot basis in East China was 160 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -32 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton; the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 108 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF, MEG inventory in East China's main ports was 75.1 tons, down 3.9 tons; according to Longzhong, it was 69.2 tons, up 0.4 tons. Last week, the actual arrival at the port was 5.9 tons, and this week's planned arrival is 5.5 tons, so the inventory may continue to decline [1]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic is that the Sino - US negotiation has made positive progress, improving the macro sentiment. On the supply side, the recent sharp increase in warehouse receipts has tightened the spot liquidity of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, the near - end polyester load has remained high, and the average monthly load in May may rise instead of falling, with strong demand support. The US textile and clothing orders are expected to partially recover [2]. - For the strategy, it is short - term cautiously bullish on the single - side, suggesting a long - spread for the inter - period, and no strategy for the inter - variety [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of EG's main contract and the spot price in the East China market both increased, and the spot basis in East China also strengthened [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG and coal - based syngas EG both improved [1]. International Spread - No detailed information about international spread is provided other than the mention of the graph "Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [5][19]. Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load has remained high, and the average monthly load in May may rise instead of falling, with strong demand support. The US textile and clothing orders are expected to partially recover [2]. Inventory Data - The inventory in East China's main ports decreased last week due to low arrival volume, and this week's planned arrival is also low, so the inventory may continue to decline [1].