近6个月，中期流动性持续处于净投放状态，11月净投放规模继续处于高位。王青进一步分析，11 月，政府债券净融资规模预计将明显上升；5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，会带动配套中长期 贷款较快投放；银行同业存单到期量明显增加。"这些因素都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性，因 此需要央行给予流动性支持。" 今年以来，央行加大流动性投放力度，维护跨季资金面平稳。目前，已基本形成每月5日前后开展3 个月买断式逆回购、15日前后开展6个月买断式逆回购、25日开展1年期MLF的中长期资金投放模式。 第三季度，买断式逆回购和MLF操作合计净投放1.5万亿元，既为保持市场流动性充裕奠定基础，也为 金融机构流动性管理提供便利。 王青表示，央行通过MLF和买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有助于保持资金面处于较 为稳定的充裕状态。"这也能助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度。" SHMET 网讯： 央行11月24日发布的11月中期借贷便利（MLF）招标公告显示，11月25日将以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期，以保持银行体系流动性充裕。 业内专家表示，这是央 ...

随着MLF操作招投标机制的完善，MLF操作已从当天发布结果公告改为预先发布招标公告，有利于参 与机构提前做好短中长期流动性安排。同时，当前MLF操作采取多重价位中标的方式，既有利于机构 按需求合理确定投标利率，提高金融机构自主市场化定价能力，也有利于央行动态掌握机构流动性余缺 状况。 "总体上看，接下来央行会综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动 性。"王青表示，近期宏观经济运行出现波动，央行加量续作MLF有助于稳增长、稳预期。 公开市场国债买卖操作、公开市场买断式逆回购操作以及MLF操作是在央行每日根据一级交易商需求 连续开展7天期逆回购操作的基础上，额外投放的中长期资金。11月以来，央行两度开展公开市场买断 式逆回购操作，累计净投放5000亿元。综合来看，MLF与买断式逆回购两项政策工具在11月合计释放 中期流动性6000亿元，与上月净投放规模持平，继续展现央行适度宽松的货币政策取向。 今年3月起，MLF采用固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展操作，政策属性完全退出，更好满 足不同参与机构差异化资金需求。3月以来，央行持续保持对MLF加量续作，市场机构普遍认为，在保 持流动性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is taking measures to maintain liquidity in the banking system by conducting a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1][2]. Group 1: MLF Operations - On November 25, the PBOC will conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term, responding to the maturity of 900 billion yuan MLF in November, resulting in a net MLF injection of 1000 billion yuan for the month [1]. - The MLF operations are aimed at addressing potential liquidity tightening, especially with the increase in government bond issuance and the maturity of bank interbank certificates of deposit [1][2]. - Since March, the MLF has adopted a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method, which better meets the differentiated funding needs of various institutions [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has also conducted two rounds of reverse repurchase operations in November, resulting in a total net injection of 500 billion yuan, indicating a continued moderate easing monetary policy stance [2]. - The combined effect of MLF and reverse repurchase operations in November has released a total of 600 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity, maintaining the same net injection scale as the previous month [2]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using both reverse repurchase and MLF tools to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, especially in light of recent macroeconomic fluctuations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on November 25, aimed at maintaining liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for November due to the maturity of 900 billion yuan MLF [1][2] Group 1: MLF Operations - The MLF operation will be conducted using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations by the PBOC [1] - The MLF operation is a response to potential liquidity tightening, influenced by factors such as increased government bond financing and the maturity of bank interbank certificates of deposit [1][2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has released a total of 600 billion yuan in mid-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos in November, maintaining the same net injection scale as the previous month, reflecting a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance [2] - Since March, the MLF has transitioned to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding approach, allowing better alignment with the diverse funding needs of participating institutions [2] Group 3: Economic Stability - The continuation of MLF operations is expected to support economic stability and growth amid recent fluctuations in macroeconomic performance [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1][2] - The MLF net injection of 100 billion yuan in November is in response to potential liquidity tightening due to the maturity of 900 billion yuan in MLF and increased government bond financing [1][2] - The PBOC's recent operations, including MLF and reverse repos, have collectively released 600 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity, maintaining a stable monetary policy stance [2][3] Group 2 - Since March, the MLF has adopted a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method, enhancing the ability of financial institutions to meet diverse funding needs [2] - The MLF operation's bidding mechanism has been improved to allow institutions to better prepare for liquidity arrangements, with a focus on providing stable expectations for financial institutions [2][3] - The PBOC is expected to continue using both reverse repos and MLF to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, supporting economic stability and expectations [3]

Core Points - The euro has shown a slight increase against the dollar, trading around 1.1520 after hitting a two-week low of 1.1490 [1] - The dollar index has retreated from multi-week highs, influenced by dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, leading to expectations of further easing in monetary policy by the Fed [2] - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a divergence in economic performance between the US and the Eurozone, with positive indicators in the US contrasting with weaker manufacturing activity in the Eurozone [3] - Market focus has shifted to upcoming economic data and policy signals from the Eurozone, particularly the German IFO Business Climate Index and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde [4] - Technical analysis suggests the euro/dollar pair is in a short-term downtrend, facing resistance around 1.1550 and support at the psychological level of 1.1500 [6]

华尔街经济学家表示，上周发布的姗姗来迟的9月就业报告，让美联储在12月利率决策时的道路变得更 加复杂。 "无论是维持还是降息，都可能出现多个反对票，"摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli在上周四的 研究报告中写道。"我们认为这是一个非常接近的决定，甚至比去年9月更接近。此前我们预计下月会降 息，但现在倾向于认为委员会下月会跳过降息，但1月和5月仍会降息，然后暂停。" 经济学家指出，由于政府关闭，9月就业报告已经过时，尽管标题数字超出预期，但细节并非全是好消 息。 对早期数据的修正显示，美国经济8月减少了4000个就业岗位，而此前报告的是增加2.2万个。7月新增 7.2万个岗位，低于此前报告的7.9万个。失业率从上月的4.3%略升至4.4%。与此同时，劳动力参与率从 62.3%小幅上升至62.4%。 "我们看到失业率上升的同时，劳动力参与率也在上升，"安永-帕特侬首席经济学家Gregory Daco在接受 采访时表示。"这意味着截至夏季末，有更多人处于劳动力市场的边缘。" "从美联储的角度来看，另一个值得关注的有趣现象是，我们看到工资增长势头面临下行压力，"他补充 道。"我们知道，许多美联储政策 ...

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined this week but remains near the critical zone, influenced by the base effect from strong post-holiday recovery in previous weeks[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded significantly, returning to the expansion zone, indicating enhanced resilience in demand[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index remained stable, reflecting a slight contraction due to the interplay of previous infrastructure investments and high base effects[1] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 (excluding students) in China decreased to 17.3% in October from 17.7% in September, showing the impact of manufacturing expansion and job creation policies[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality employment, focusing on structural and institutional improvements to alleviate structural unemployment[2] - Policies aim to enhance youth employment stability and labor participation rates through education reform and new employment forms[2] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's current policy rate is between 3.75% and 4.00%, with inflation expected to return to 2% by 2026, indicating a prolonged process[7] - In September, the U.S. added approximately 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reflecting signs of marginal weakness in the labor market[7]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income report released on November 24, 2025, written by analyst Liang Weichao and research assistant Wang Yi [1][2] Group 2: 2025 Government Bond Supply Review - In 2025, the deficit - to - GDP ratio was increased to 4%, resulting in a significant increase in government bond supply. As of the end of November, the cumulative government bond issuance was about 24.08 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 13.23 trillion yuan. It is estimated that the full - year issuance will reach 26.31 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 13.85 trillion yuan [3][11][12] - The issuance of government bonds in 2025 was generally fast. The issuance of national debt from January to November was at a relatively fast pace compared to the same period in the past five years. The issuance of local government bonds was more balanced, and the progress accelerated again in the fourth quarter [12] Group 3: 2026 Government Bond Supply Outlook 3.1 Fiscal Policy and Overall Supply - In 2026, the fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a stable total bond - issuance volume and a focus on quality and efficiency improvement. The deficit - to - GDP ratio is expected to remain at around 4%, the deficit scale is about 5.95 trillion yuan, and the special bond quota is expected to increase to 4.8 trillion yuan. The scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is expected to increase to about 1.8 trillion yuan, and the annual debt - resolution arrangement is expected to remain at 2 trillion yuan. The estimated general deficit scale in 2026 is about 14.55 trillion yuan, corresponding to a general deficit - to - GDP ratio of about 9.8% [4][14] - The total government bond supply in 2026 is about 25 trillion yuan, and the net financing target is 14.42 trillion yuan, remaining at a historically high level but with limited impact [5] 3.2 National Debt - The total national debt issuance in 2026 is expected to be 13.9 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous year due to reduced maturity pressure. The net financing target is about 6.9 trillion yuan, a slight increase from 2025. The maturity pressure is expected to be about 7 trillion yuan [4][17][18] - The issuance progress of national debt in 2026 is expected to be more gradual than in 2025. The supply shock in the first quarter will ease year - on - year. The net financing peak may be concentrated in the third and fourth quarters [20] 3.3 Local Government Bonds - The total issuance of local government bonds in 2026 is expected to be 11.12 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous year. The new local government bond scale is expected to be about 5.72 trillion yuan. The ordinary refinancing bond issuance is expected to be 3.12 trillion yuan, and the special refinancing bond issuance is expected to be 2.29 trillion yuan [23] - June and August 2026 are the peak repayment months for local government bonds. The issuance rhythm may be more front - loaded, with supply peaks in the first and second quarters [24][27] Group 4: Policy Coordination and Uncertainties - In 2026, the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies will be more effective. The central bank will continue to release medium - and long - term liquidity to ease the supply shock, and the fiscal side will pay more attention to structural investment and debt - resolution rhythm [5] - Uncertainties in government bond supply in 2026 mainly include the demand for special treasury bonds and new arrangements after the debt - resolution quota is used up. The special treasury bonds may have new uses, and the debt - resolution pressure in some local areas remains high, especially the problem of enterprise accounts receivable [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market has a certain degree of short - term uncertainty due to previous rises and overseas market adjustments, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with different support and pressure factors [13][15][18]. - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. - The energy and chemical market shows different trends, with some products recommended for long - term strategies and others for short - term caution [56][58][60]. - The agricultural product market also has various trends, such as short - term weak operation for some and shock - based operation for others [81][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US government may allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China; the SASAC held a central enterprise specialization integration promotion meeting; Changxin Storage released new DDR5 products; a Goldman Sachs partner said the US stock market may continue to sell off [2]. - **Strategy View**: After previous rises and influenced by overseas market adjustments, the short - term index is uncertain, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The main contracts of TL, T, and TF decreased on Friday, while TS remained unchanged. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the US PMI data showed mixed results. The central bank conducted a net injection of 1622 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold prices rose slightly, and silver prices fell. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported. Fed officials' "dovish" remarks supported precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded after a decline, with LME copper inventory decreasing and domestic spot premiums rising [12]. - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with strong support at the bottom [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline, with domestic and overseas inventory changes and improved downstream procurement sentiment [14]. - **Strategy View**: The aluminum price is expected to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment, with strong support [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the zinc industry still in an over - supply cycle [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with relatively loose supply [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price continued to fall, with changes in spot premiums and cost [20]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell slightly, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The safety situation in the DRC may affect tin mines [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price fell, with changes in spot and futures prices [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to potential disturbances and the reference range of the main contract [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with attention to supply - side policies [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and cost [30]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with an over - supply situation [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [31]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term [33]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [37]. - **Strategy View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate within a range, with strong supply and stable demand [38][39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the soda ash price fell. There were changes in inventory and basis [40][41]. - **Strategy View**: The glass price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the soda ash price is expected to be weakly volatile [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price fell, and the ferrosilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price, and to look for opportunities to rebound [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the polysilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [46][49]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate within a wide range [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and adjusted, with changes in tire factory start - up rates and inventory [52][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a bullish strategy with stop - loss settings and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and there were changes in refined oil prices and inventory [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [59]. - **Strategy View**: The methanol price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with high inventory pressure [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [61]. - **Strategy View**: The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was unchanged, and the styrene price rose. There were changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages, with cost and demand factors [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price was unchanged, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [67]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA price is expected to be affected by supply, demand, and valuation factors [71]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The para - xylene price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [72]. - **Strategy View**: The para - xylene price is expected to have a risk of valuation correction, with high supply and low demand [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with cost and demand factors [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [77]. - **Strategy View**: The PP price is expected to be affected by cost and demand factors, and may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pig - **Market Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with normal supply and limited demand [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract or do reverse spreads [81]. Egg - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with partial increases, with reduced inventory pressure and increased replenishment willingness [82]. - **Strategy View**: The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound in the medium term [83][84]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The soybean meal price was stable, with changes in import cost, inventory, and demand [85]. - **Strategy View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on crushing margins [86]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The edible oil price fell, with weak palm oil export data and high supply [87]. - **Strategy View**: The palm oil price is recommended to be viewed with an oscillatory perspective, and turn to a bullish strategy if production decreases [88][89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price fell, with an expected global surplus in the 2025/26 season and increased imports [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then go short [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly, with changes in production, inventory, and demand [92][93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with no strong driving force [94].