Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Overseas: The US September non - farm payrolls added 119,000, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a four - year high. The October non - farm and CPI data were cancelled due to the government shutdown, and the November data will be released after the December FOMC. Fed officials' statements have made the market extremely sensitive. The divergence within the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of a December rate cut has fluctuated. After a series of hawkish remarks from officials, the probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly, but after "Fed's third - in - command" Williams' dovish statement, the market's bet on a December rate cut rose from about 30% to 70%, driving a slight repair of risk assets. This week, focus on the US's September data [3]. - Domestic: Currently in an economic data and policy vacuum period, the weakening of external risk appetite has disturbed the market. The A - share market fell below the 3900 mark last Friday, with a decline of 2.45%. Micro - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market sectors led the decline. With the increase in the Fed's rate - cut expectation and the recovery of overseas risk assets, the A - share market may rebound, but there is still a risk of a phased correction [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - 9 - month non - farm employment and unemployment rate were divergent: The September non - farm data exceeded expectations while the unemployment rate rose. The October employment report was cancelled, and the November data will be released after the December FOMC. The probability of a December rate cut rebounded from 30% to 70% [5]. - Employment in goods and services both recovered: In September, the goods sector added 10,000 jobs, the service sector added 87,000 jobs, and the government sector added 22,000 jobs [6]. - Hourly wage growth declined: The monthly wage growth rate in the goods sector decreased from 0.38% to 0.35%, and in the service sector, it decreased from 0.44% to 0.22% [6]. Asset Performance Equity - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks generally declined last week. The Wande All - A Index fell 5.13%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.90%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 5.09%. Different indices had different year - to - date performances, with the ChiNext Index up 36.35% year - to - date [9]. Bond - Domestic bond yields generally showed small fluctuations, while overseas bond yields had different changes. For example, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.00 BP, and the 10 - year German Treasury yield rose 4.00 BP [12]. Commodity - Most commodities declined last week. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 1.81%, the CRB Commodity Index fell 2.24%, and WTI crude oil fell 3.51% [13]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose 0.87 last week. The US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar against the offshore RMB had different exchange rate changes, and other major currencies against the RMB also showed different trends [15]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: High - frequency data includes the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, real estate transaction area, passenger car sales, and rebar apparent consumption [17][20]. - Overseas: High - frequency data includes Redbook commercial retail sales, unemployment benefit claims, US Treasury yield spreads, and FedWatch interest rate change probabilities [26][27]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include the November Dallas Fed business activity index, September US retail sales, PPI, housing price index, and other data from the US, as well as China's October industrial enterprise profit data and the eurozone's November industrial and economic sentiment indices [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪铜**: The main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly around 86,200 yuan. The speech of New York Fed President Williams, interpreted as "dovish" by the market, reignited traders' hopes for a possible interest rate cut in December, with the probability of a December rate cut rising to around 70%. Copper prices rebounded significantly on Friday night. Overseas electrolytic copper inventories continued to rise, suppressing copper prices, while domestic social inventories of electrolytic copper decreased on Monday. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 86,000 yuan mark [6]. - **沪铝**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut heated up again, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded from Friday night. As aluminum prices weakened, the spot premium strengthened, reflecting increased industrial support. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 21,400 yuan level [7]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly with reduced positions, and the main contract price regained the 115,000 yuan mark. The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut heated up again, and nickel prices stabilized and rebounded from Friday night. The willingness of long - positions to close increased today. As nickel prices declined last week, the spot premium gradually strengthened, reflecting increased support at the spot end. Technically, the short - term nickel price regained the 115,000 yuan mark, and continuous closing of long - positions may drive nickel prices to continue to rebound [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: As of November 24, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China decreased by 13,900 tons week - on - week to 180,600 tons. The main reasons for the inventory reduction this week were the decrease in domestic supply arrivals and the improvement in the outbound rhythm. SMM expected a decrease in imported supply arrivals and stable downstream purchasing willingness, predicting a slight decrease in weekly copper inventory [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 115,400 - 120,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 117,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,050 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,200 - 4,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,350 yuan/ton, a rise of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provided charts on copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warehouse receipt inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: Charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, etc. were presented [23][25][30] - **Nickel**: Charts on nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. were included [36][38][42]

Core Insights - QCP analysis indicates that after a roughly 30% pullback, BTC shows initial signs of rebound, with the Federal Reserve's dovish comments raising the expectation of a rate cut in December to 75% [1] - Market liquidity may be shifting, as derivative data shows that investors have not abandoned bullish bets, with open interest in call options at year-end remaining higher than that of put options, concentrated in the $85K to $200K range [1] - Negative funding rates suggest that long leverage has been cleared, reducing short-term downside risks [1] - Future price movements may depend on upcoming U.S. retail data, core PCE, and ETF fund flows [1]

行业热点：全模态通用 AI 助手"灵光"发布，中金拟吸收合并东兴、 信达。（1）全模态通用 AI 助手"灵光"发布，上线 4 天突破百万下载。 （2）中金拟吸收合并东兴、信达，券业格局再迎改变。（3）2025 量子科 技和产业大会在合肥举行，量子领域多项重大成果集中发布。 行业配置：阶段性再平衡 策 略 研 究 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 如何看待全球风险偏好的降温？ 投资要点： 本周（11/17-11/21）市场普遍承压，全 A 收跌-5.13%。从指数情况看， 上证 50、中证红利跌幅较窄，创业板指、微盘股受挫严重。从风格情况看， 金融地产跌幅较窄，先进制造领跌。本周 31 个申万行业全部收跌，银行、 传媒、食品饮料跌幅较窄，基础化工、综合、电力设备领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差上升，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差上升至 0.8%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所下降。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度上升。市场大盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑输市场，主题热度主要聚集在水产、拼多多合作商、中船系。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比下降 ...

登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 传媒互联网领涨 A 股小幅上行 ——市场分析 分析师：张刚 相关报告 《市场分析：观望情绪提升 A 股宽幅震荡》 2025-11-21 《市场分析：银行地产行业领涨 A 股震荡整 固》 2025-11-20 《市场分析：船舶贵金属领涨 A 股小幅上行》 2025-11-19 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周一（11 月 24 日）A 股市场先抑后扬、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指高 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 3816 点附近获得支撑，随后股指维持震 荡，尾盘企稳回升，盘中船舶制造、文化传媒、航天航空以及软件 开发等行业表现较好；能源金属、保险、航空机场以及化肥等行业 表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅上行的运行特征。创业板市场周 一震荡上扬，创业板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判 ...

Market Overview - The equity market experienced a decline with an average trading volume of 18,650 billion CNY, down 1,788 billion CNY week-on-week[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index dropped by 5.13% and 6.15%, respectively[2] - The decline in the market was influenced by overseas risk appetite and liquidity factors, particularly due to rising Japanese government bond yields and fluctuating expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts[2] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth forecast for Q3 2024 is under pressure, with various economic indicators showing weakness, particularly in October[2] - The M2 growth rate and social financing growth are also expected to remain subdued, reflecting a tightening liquidity environment[2] - The actual growth indicators have weakened significantly, with industrial production and exports continuing to decline[2] Fixed Income Market - The bond market showed limited volatility, with the yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuating within a narrow range[2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 5,540 billion CNY through reverse repos, indicating a cautious liquidity stance[2] - Despite the current environment, the risk of a significant bond market decline remains low, with expectations for potential rate cuts in early 2024[2] International Market Dynamics - U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 1.91% and the S&P 500 down 2.74%[2] - The U.S. Treasury yields decreased, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.06%[2] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations fluctuated significantly, with the probability of a December cut rebounding to 67% after initial declines[2] Risk Factors - There is a heightened risk of further deterioration in the economic fundamentals, which could accelerate global liquidity tightening[2] - The absence of key employment data prior to the December Federal Reserve meeting adds uncertainty to market expectations[2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market remained volatile. The 1-year Treasury yield dropped 0.96BP to 1.40%, the 10-year yield slightly rose to 1.82%, and the 30-year yield increased 0.95BP to 2.16%. The short - end was stronger than the long - end, and there was no expected stock - bond "see - saw effect" [3][10]. - The short - term 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.85%. Investors can wait for the yield to reach the upper limit for potential increasing allocation opportunities [3][10]. - U.S. Treasury yields declined last week. The market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has risen to about 70% after Fed official Williams' speech, but Fed officials' internal differences on further rate cuts are intensifying [11]. - The REITs market had a phased correction last week, with the data center, affordable housing, and warehousing logistics sectors leading the decline. There were also new developments in the primary market [11]. - E Fund's Ruyi Ying'an FOF raised over 5.8 billion yuan, and China Merchants Bank's "TREE Changying Plan" has helped expand the scale of medium - and low - risk FOFs [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - **Domestic Bond Market**: The domestic bond market was volatile last week. The short - end was stronger than the long - end, and there was no stock - bond "see - saw effect". The 10 - year Treasury yield may stay in the 1.75% - 1.85% range in the short term [10]. - **U.S. Bond Market**: U.S. Treasury yields declined last week. Fed officials' different views on rate cuts reflect internal differences, and the debate on further rate cuts continues [11]. - **REITs Market**: The REITs market had a phased correction last week. There were new developments in the primary market, with 3 new public REITs making progress [11]. 3.1.2 Public Fund Market Dynamics E Fund's Ruyi Ying'an 6 - month holding hybrid initiated (FOF) was established on November 19, 2025, with a fundraising scale of over 5.8 billion yuan. China Merchants Bank's "TREE Changying Plan" has contributed to the expansion of medium - and low - risk FOFs [12]. 3.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Currency Enhancement Index Tracking - **Currency Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims for liquidity management, targeting a curve that surpasses money market funds. It mainly invests in money market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance benchmark is the China Securities Money Fund Index [14]. 3.2.2 Pure Bond Index Tracking - **Short - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Focuses on liquidity management, aiming for a smooth curve while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and strong absolute return capabilities. The benchmark is 50% Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% General Money Fund Index [18]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Seeks stable returns by investing in medium - and long - term pure bond funds. It aims for excess returns compared to the medium - and long - term bond fund index and a stable net value curve. It selects 5 funds, balancing coupon strategies and band operations, and adjusts duration and bond types according to market conditions [20]. 3.2.3 Fixed - Income + Index Tracking - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is set at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income + funds with an equity position (considering convertible bonds and stocks) within 15% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [22]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income + funds with an equity position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [23]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income + funds with an equity position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on funds with strong stock - picking ability in the equity part and no credit downgrading in the bond part. The benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [26]. 3.2.4 Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index It selects 5 convertible bond funds from a sample space of bond funds with a convertible bond investment ratio of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% on average in the past four quarters. It evaluates funds from multiple dimensions and selects the best - performing ones based on market conditions [30][31]. 3.2.5 QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index Tracking It selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control, investing in overseas bonds in regions like the global market, Asia, and emerging markets, including investment - grade and high - yield products [31]. 3.2.6 REITs Fund Preferred Index Tracking It selects 10 REITs funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and some elasticity, based on the underlying assets of mature and high - quality infrastructure projects with relatively clear cash - flow expectations [35].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.97% to 25,716.50 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.78% to 5,545.56 points [2][4] - The rebound was primarily driven by the performance of technology stocks, which had previously been under pressure due to liquidity issues and valuation adjustments [4] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Kuaishou-W rising by 7.11%, Bilibili-W by 5.67%, and Alibaba-W by 4.67% [5][6] - Kuaishou's rise was supported by a Goldman Sachs report predicting that its AI-related revenue could reach $154 million by FY2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 83 [6] - Alibaba's new AI app, Qianwen, achieved over 10 million downloads in its first week, surpassing other international AI applications [7] Pharmaceutical Sector - Innovative pharmaceutical companies showed strong performance, with Silver诺医药-B rising by 31.15% and 泰格医药 increasing by 9.25% [8][9] - The recovery in capital market financing activities and the anticipated US interest rate cuts are expected to boost the performance of CXO companies in the second half of the year [9][10] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector also performed well, with GAC Group rising by 12.03% and Li Auto increasing by 5.77% [10][11] - GAC Group announced the completion of its solid-state battery pilot production line, marking a significant breakthrough in China's new energy vehicle technology [11] Notable Stock Movements - Hesai-W saw an increase of 8.14% after being included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, effective December 8, 2025 [12] - WeRide-W rose by 9.73% after receiving Switzerland's first pure driverless taxi license, allowing it to operate in Zurich [13]

以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年11月24日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 10 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1293 | 元/克 | 0 | 11 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 0 | 가 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1259 | 元/克 | 7 | 跌 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1293 | 元/克 | 0 | ने | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 10 | 跌 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 0 | ਸੇ | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1293 | 元/克 | 3 | 跌 | | 菜百黄金价格 | 1270 | 元/克 | 0 | म | | 上海中国黄金价格 | 1222 | 元/克 | 0 | ग | | 周大生黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/ 克 | 0 | 27 | 今日金店黄金价格持稳转跌，铂金价格稍有上涨，就拿周大生黄 ...

预测后期走势 短期（未来1-2周）：黄金预计会继续在 4000美元 以上的区间内宽幅震荡。方向的选择需要新的催化剂，重点关注美联储官员的讲话以及关键经济数据的发 布（如零售销售、PPI等）。4000美元整数关口是近期的关键支撑，守住则多头还有反攻机会；反之，若有效跌破，可能会进一步下探。 突破策略：如果金价有效跌破4000美元的强劲支撑，短期下跌空间可能会打开，届时可考虑反弹时轻仓跟进空单。反之，若金价强势突破4100美元，则可能 引发进一步的上行。 仓位与风控：在方向不明朗的震荡市中，建议轻仓操作。 关注中长线： 为何关注长期？ 全球央行的持续购金趋势未变，这为金价提供了坚实的结构性强支撑。同时，地缘政治风险以及全球宏观秩序重构带来的不确定性，也让 黄金的长期避险和对冲价值凸显。 如何操作：可以考虑采取 "逢低分批买入" 的策略。不要试图去猜市场的最低点，而是当金价出现显著回调（例如接近或低于4000美元）时，分批建立仓 位。黄金在投资组合中配置中等个位数比例（例如5%左右）是合适的。 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 关键点位与策略： 阻力位：关注 4070美元 ...