巴西财长Haddad：50%的关税不可持续，不要以为它会一直维持不变。 ...

马来西亚总理：美国国务卿鲁比奥表示将考虑马来西亚对关税的看法。 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - In June 2025, China's CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, with urban areas up 0.1%, rural areas down 0.2%, food prices down 0.3%, non-food prices up 0.1%, consumer goods prices down 0.2%, and service prices up 0.5%. The CPI for the first half of the year was down 0.1% compared to the same period last year [2] - The vessel "Eternal C" flying the Liberian flag and operated by Greece sank after being attacked by Houthi rebels near Yemen, and five crew members have been rescued [2] - The US government will restrict Chinese citizens and other so - called "foreign adversaries" from buying farmland in the US, which China's spokesperson criticized as discriminatory and harmful to the US itself [2] - The General Office of the State Council issued a notice to increase support for stable employment policies, including supporting enterprises to stabilize jobs and expanding the scope of special loans for stable and expanded employment [2] - After including the tariffs announced by Trump on August 1 for 14 countries, the average US tariff rate will rise from 13.4% to 14.6% [3] - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that most participants thought it might be appropriate to cut the federal funds rate this year, and the upward pressure on inflation from tariffs might be temporary or moderate [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: caustic soda, pure benzene, coking coal, urea, and rapeseed oil [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.85%, precious metals 27.21%, oilseeds and oils 12.63%, non - ferrous metals 20.32%, soft commodities 2.88%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.17%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.82% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data is presented in a chart and not detailed in text [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.13 | 1.41 | 4.22 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.26 | 1.03 | 2.05 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.18 | 1.41 | 1.44 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.41 | 0.64 | 3.98 | | | S&P 500 | 0.61 | 0.94 | 6.49 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.06 | - 0.75 | 19.10 | | | German DAX | 1.42 | 2.68 | 23.31 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.33 | - 1.65 | - 0.18 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.15 | 1.21 | 8.49 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.11 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.03 | 0.00 | - 0.36 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.21 | 1.47 | 1.66 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.06 | 5.06 | - 5.05 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.38 | 0.33 | 26.25 | | | LME Copper | - 1.33 | - 2.21 | 10.00 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 1.01 | - 0.96 | 12.72 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.00 | 0.74 | - 10.13 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.48 | - 3.11 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold market is expected to experience high - level oscillations in the short term and is a strategic long - term allocation due to multiple uncertainties and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [1][3]. - Silver will have strong oscillations, with support around 8700, influenced by the price sentiment of base metals and gold [1]. - Copper is under pressure in the short term, but the long - term outlook remains positive. After a full correction, it is advisable to try long positions with a light position [1][6]. - Zinc will oscillate in the short term, and in the long run, it has an increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead and tin prices are under pressure to rebound due to increased supply and insufficient demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound as downstream consumption enters the off - season and inventory accumulates [1][11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure to fall due to supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation [1][13]. - Industrial silicon will rebound, and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations in the short term but is in a state of over - supply in the long term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound, and it is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the 65,000 pressure level [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold decreased by 1.21% to 766.82, COMEX gold increased by 0.35% to 3323. SHFE silver decreased by 0.60% to 8899, COMEX silver decreased by 0.87% to 37. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.61% to 86.17 [2]. - **Logic**: The Fed's attitude is unclear, Trump's second - wave high - tariff policy is in place, and New Zealand did not cut interest rates as expected. Tariff uncertainties and the long - term trend of global order reshaping and double - easing support the long - bull logic of gold [3]. - **Strategy**: Gold can be considered for long - term investment when the opportunity arises as it has strong support around 760. Silver will have range oscillations with strong support around 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 78330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The trading volume increased by 165%, and the position decreased by 6%. Global copper visible inventory is at a historically low level [5]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, but the production of electrolytic copper has increased significantly. The high copper price suppresses demand, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [5]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is intense long - short game. After a full correction, try long positions with a light position. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The range of SHFE copper is [77800, 79800], and that of LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22220 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is 56.48%, lower than the same period in previous years [8]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the TC continues to rebound. The demand for galvanized steel is affected by the weak steel demand and overseas anti - dumping [8]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. In the long run, short on rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [21800, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2583 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.23%, and that of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [10]. - **Logic**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the downstream consumption is weak. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME nickel was 14990 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.93%, and that of SHFE nickel main contract was 120370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The inventory of pure nickel has accumulated [12]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand imbalance of nickel persists, and the consumption of stainless steel is in the off - season, although the inventory has decreased slightly due to production cuts [13]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the production cut trend of stainless steel. The range of nickel main contract is [118000, 122000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate decreased its position by over 10,000 lots, opening low and closing high. The total inventory continues to reach new highs [14]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved. The demand shows an off - season non - off - season phenomenon, but the supply increase is in line with expectations [14]. - **Strategy**: It will have high - level oscillations in the short term, paying attention to the 65,000 pressure level [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes suggest that most officials do not see an immediate need for interest rate cuts, but there is a general expectation for potential rate reductions later in the year if inflation pressures from tariffs increase [1][2] - The latest gold T+D price is reported at 769.21 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.67% increase, indicating a rebound in the gold market during the European trading session [1] - The market is closely watching upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Christopher Waller, who has previously expressed support for rate cuts, which could influence market expectations for the July policy meeting [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have rebounded after hitting a low, maintaining a downward trend but supported by a weekly upward trend channel, suggesting potential for further bullish rebounds if prices drop to support levels [3] - Key resistance levels for gold T+D are identified between 775-785 yuan per gram, while support levels are noted between 750-760 yuan per gram, indicating a range for potential price movements [3]

Group 1 - The latest Shanghai gold futures closing price is 773.30 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 0.49% and a trading volume of 205,604 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai is quoted at 768.55 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 4.75 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from several countries, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff and others facing rates ranging from 20% to 30%, effective from August 1 [1] Group 2 - The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting reveal increasing divergence among officials regarding interest rate outlooks, primarily due to differing expectations on how tariffs may impact inflation [2] - Participants generally believe that the current monetary policy may be moderately restrictive, allowing the committee to wait for clearer inflation and economic activity prospects [2] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring U.S. initial jobless claims and speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials [3] - Despite Trump's announcement of tariffs, the market does not expect a significant rise in tariffs, leading to limited reaction in gold prices [3] - The gold price is experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai gold premium narrowing to 2.2 CNY per gram, indicating a range-bound trading strategy for gold [3]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with Lao Feng Xiang gold rising by 1 yuan per gram to 1000 yuan per gram, becoming the highest-priced gold store [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold stores has expanded to 31 yuan per gram, with Shanghai China Gold at the lowest price of 969 yuan per gram [1] - Platinum prices continue to decline, with a reported drop of 4 yuan per gram for platinum jewelry, now priced at 548 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - The gold recycling price has increased by 4.5 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands [2] - The current gold recycling price is 758.70 yuan per gram, with Lao Feng Xiang gold recycling at the highest price of 771.70 yuan per gram [2] Group 3 - International gold prices have shown a slight increase, with the price reported at 3313.34 USD per ounce, up by 0.37% [4] - The current spot gold price is 324.86 USD per ounce, reflecting a rise of 0.35% [4] - Market sensitivity to tariff impacts appears to have diminished, with economic growth remaining stable despite recent tariff announcements [4] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate a division among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, with some favoring action later in the year [4]

2025 年 7 月 10 日星期四 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 美联储纪要：多数官员认为关税可能持续推高通胀，少数官 员愿意在下次会议上考虑降息 特朗普：利率至少高了 3 个百分点 特朗普再向 8 国发出关税信函 巴西面临 50%的关税 特朗普：金砖国家将"很快"面临 10%的额外关税 特朗普政府加大施压哈佛面临失去认证资格风险 美商务部长称拟于 8 月初与中方会谈 中国 6 月 CPI 同比 0.1% PPI 同比-4.3% 6 月底港股总市值 42.7 万亿港元 同比升 33% 消息称硅片厂商昨日下午普遍调高报价 OpenAI 即将推出 AI 浏览器 2 年期美债收益率跌 5.39 个基点报 3.839% 5 年期美债收益率跌 6.82 个基点报 3.901% 10 年期美债收益率跌 7.12 个基点报 4.330% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariff rates for eight countries, including Brazil, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1, 2025 [1] - Brazil's Vice President criticized the U.S. for raising tariffs, stating that 80% of U.S. exports to Brazil are already duty-free, indicating a trade surplus for the U.S. [1] - Brazil's economy is the largest in Latin America, with a GDP ranking among the top ten globally, and it has developed industries in petrochemicals, mining, steel, and automotive sectors [2] Group 2 - The direct trigger for the U.S. tariffs is a discrepancy in trade statistics, with the U.S. claiming a trade deficit while Brazil argues that service trade is included in the U.S. statistics [4] - In 2024, Brazil imported $42.41 billion from the U.S. and exported $40.33 billion to the U.S., highlighting the close trade relationship [4] - Political motivations are also at play, as Trump has publicly questioned the Brazilian government's investigation into former President Bolsonaro, suggesting that tariffs could be used as leverage [4]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-07-10 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-07-10 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 特朗普第二波征税函发给八国，顺差国巴西征关税 50%迄今最高 观点分享： 据央视新闻报道，当地时间 7 月 9 日，特朗普在社交媒体平台上先后发布了致文莱等国 的加税函。自 8 月 1 日起，美国将对菲律宾产品征收 20%的关税，对文莱和摩尔多瓦征 25% 关税，对阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、利比亚和斯里兰卡征 30%关税。特朗普公布的对巴西新征关 税率 50%远超此前对等关税 10%，他称这源于美巴不可持续的贸易逆差，以及巴西审判前总 统博索纳罗。巴西雷亚尔一度跌近3%。巴西副总统表示，美国对巴西是顺差，对巴西商品征 收新关税是不公平的。但特朗普说得明白，50%的新关税部分源于巴西起诉其前总统博索纳 罗。看来关税在特朗普眼里，不仅平衡贸易逆差的手段，也是用来威胁甚至打人耍流氓的大 棒子。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 丙烯 | ★★★★ | 丙烯：丙烯预计 7 月 22 日上市，该品种属于烯烃上游单体，承接上下游 ...