煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭 主业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推 进》，2025.4.29 2.《煤炭周报：宏观预期强化，重 视板块底部布局》，2025.4.27 3.《煤炭周报：煤价震荡寻底，关 注板块红利属性》，2025.4.20 4.《煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负 ， 静 待 后 续 需 求 改 善 》， 2025.4.18 5.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回 购增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 煤炭周报: 板块业绩有望筑底， 寻找相对确定性机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 煤炭开采 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 25Q1 业 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a trend of decreasing volume but increasing prices, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing revenue and net profit growth despite a decline in overall industry production [2][5][13] - Brand building has become crucial for all liquor companies, especially for small and medium enterprises, which can seek growth through regional market focus, transforming into specialty wineries, and enhancing consumer interaction [2][5][16] - The rise of low-alcohol and fruit wines poses challenges for traditional liquor companies, which must prioritize product quality and innovation to adapt to changing consumer preferences [2][22][25] Industry Trends - The overall production capacity of the liquor industry has been declining, with current capacity at about 30% of its peak in 2016, reflecting a shift in consumer preference towards premium and aged liquors [5][6][8] - The competition is increasingly characterized by a "survival of the fittest" dynamic, where leading brands grow at the expense of smaller players, leading to a phenomenon described as "this consumes that" [5][13] - The market is witnessing a bifurcation where high-end brands are facing price adjustments, with Moutai's actual transaction price dropping nearly 30% from its peak [14][29] Company Strategies - Companies like Gujinggong and Jinshiyuan have benefited from the industry's increasing concentration and have successfully leveraged regional economic growth to enhance their market positions [16][17] - Watering brands like Shui Jing Fang are focusing on brand building and product quality, positioning themselves well in the competitive landscape [19] - Small liquor companies are encouraged to either dominate a specific regional market or transform into local wineries that resonate with community sentiments, potentially leading to profitable operations [20][21] Consumer Behavior - Consumers increasingly demand specific brands when purchasing liquor, indicating a strong brand loyalty that drives market dynamics [12][19] - The perception of liquor as a premium product has led to a decline in the acceptance of non-branded or lower-quality offerings, emphasizing the importance of brand reputation [6][8][12] - The younger generation's shift towards lighter alcoholic beverages and fruit wines presents both a challenge and an opportunity for traditional liquor companies to innovate and adapt [22][23][25] Investment Outlook - The liquor sector is currently undergoing a valuation correction after a period of rapid growth, with investors advised to approach the market with a rational mindset based on their investment goals [27][29] - The potential for mergers and acquisitions in the liquor industry remains high, with significant interest in brands that can demonstrate strong growth potential [28][29] - The evolving economic landscape and changing consumer preferences necessitate a careful evaluation of investment strategies within the liquor sector [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a "pro-cyclical + high dividend" strategy, highlighting that policy measures are driving valuation recovery in the sector. The average dividend yield for the sector is currently at 4.49%, which remains historically high compared to the risk-free rate represented by the 10-year government bond yield [3][5] - The report anticipates that the improvement in the sector will be catalyzed by policy support, particularly from the real estate and consumer sectors. The static price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is only 0.65 times, indicating a significant safety margin with an implied non-performing loan (NPL) ratio exceeding 15% [3][5] - Recommended stocks include regional banks benefiting from policy expectations (Chengdu, Changsha, Suzhou, Changshu, Ningbo) and high-dividend stocks (ICBC, CCB, Shanghai Bank) [3][5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - As of the end of April, 42 listed banks reported a year-on-year decline in net profit of 1.2% for Q1 2025, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [5] - The revenue growth rate for listed banks in Q1 2025 fell to -1.7%, down 1.8 percentage points from 2024. Net interest income decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-interest income showed signs of stabilization [5][9] Market Trends - In April 2025, the banking sector experienced a slight decline of 0.06%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, ranking fifth among 30 sectors [3] Macro and Liquidity Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. The new RMB loans in March 2025 increased by 3.64 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.4% [3][5] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of listed banks remains stable, with the NPL ratio decreasing by 1 basis point to 1.22% in Q1 2025. The provision coverage ratio decreased by 2.13 percentage points to 238% [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant inflow of medium to long-term funds into the banking sector in China during the first quarter of 2024, driven by increased investments from Central Huijin, social security funds, and insurance companies, leading to a positive performance in bank stocks [1][4]. Group 1: Central Huijin's Investment Activities - Central Huijin increased its holdings in multiple ETFs, which brought additional passive funds into the banking sector, particularly benefiting high-dividend bank stocks [1][2]. - As of the end of Q1 2024, Central Huijin held significant positions in eight bank stocks, including major state-owned banks and several national joint-stock banks, with notable increases in ETF holdings [2]. Group 2: Social Security Fund's Holdings - By the end of Q1 2024, the social security fund had significant holdings in five bank stocks, with an overall increase in the number of shares held compared to the beginning of the year, particularly in Changshu Bank [3]. Group 3: Insurance Companies' Activities - Insurance companies have shown strong interest in bank stocks, with several firms collectively acquiring stakes in five listed banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, indicating a robust inflow of funds into the banking sector [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The valuation recovery of bank stocks is influenced by macroeconomic policies and asset quality improvements, with expectations for continued interest in high-dividend strategies in the short term [5].

证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2025 年 05 月 08 日 * [10] M. C. 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 2025 年一季报业绩变化有何投资指引？ 三、价格压力整体持续，政策支持下部分行业"困境反转" 2023 年以来我国经济需求侧增速不足的问题逐渐凸显，造成上市公司"增量不增利"。 2025 年 Q1 共有 23 个行业销售净利率低于 10%，其中有 13 个行业低于 5%，地产板 块整体亏损。边际变化方面，25 年一季度有 19 个行业归母净利润增速高于营收增速。 上游周期方面，钢铁、有色、基础化工等行业出现"困境反转"，利润改善明显。中 游制造方面，一季度受益于需求增加以及"特朗普关税"预期带来的抢出口，机械设 备与汽车行业利润率持续上行。电力设备当前结构性产能过剩仍存在，营收有所提升 但利润下滑。下游消费方面，受益于消费券以旧换新等终端消费政策支持，家用电器 板块 25 年一季度归母净利润同比增长 25.12%，业绩大幅超预期。 四、PB-ROE 视角下，部分行业存在估值修复潜力 执业证书编号：S074052012 ...

【长江电新】20250507-宁德时代更新：港股上市临近，重视估值修复窗口！ 事件：5月6日，宁德时代公告了港交所主板上市聆讯资料集，港股发行窗口临近，我们认为宁德时代的H股发行将 体现其全球影响力，且在外资定价体系下，有望牵引A股估值修复，建议重视这一重要窗口期！ 1、为何宁德时代H股上市窗口需要重视？ 2）横向比较看，在全球市场宁德时代可比的锂电公司是LGES，其最新市值为3912亿元，为宁德时代A股市值的 37%，但LGES的出货仅是宁德时代的25%左右，竞争力和盈利差距更大（LGES在25Q1营业利润19.9亿人民币，若 剔除美国IRA补贴，则为-4.4亿元），即宁德时代是绝对低估的。 3）宁德时代有望通过H股发行，呈现全球资本市场影响力，伴随发行结果陆续推进，我们预计可能的催化一是公 司的基石投资人和配售资金将以国内产业资本、海外财团资金为主，体现对公司长期价值的认可；二是配售较A股 的折扣不会太高，也将提振信心。 2、从基本面出发再来谈一谈宁德时代的价值。 从短期的维度看，市场对宁德时代的分歧一是美国敞口，但从24Q4、25Q1报表看，公司已经将美国敞口降到小个 位数的水平，年内通过库存确收、26 ...

各位老铁，这里是帮主郑重的收评时间。今儿收盘这行情，像极了老茶馆里的说书场——有人拍案叫绝，有人摇头叹气。咱不凑热闹，就着这杯浓茶，给您 唠唠门道。 收盘三大指数集体收涨，3200只股票飘红，看着喜庆，但咱得透过红绿看门道。中长线投资就像种树，不能天天盯着枝头数叶子，得看根系扎得深不深。帮 主二十年练就的本事，就是能在喧嚣的市场里，听清产业变革的脚步声。记住郑重这句话：涨出来的风险，跌出来的机会，耐得住寂寞，才守得住繁华。明 儿咱们接着盘道，点个关注，干货不迷路！ 先说这军工板块的旱地拔葱，晨曦航空、航天长峰这些票涨停跟放烟花似的。要搁往常，咱肯定觉得是地缘局势搅动的短线行情，但这次真不一样。您细看 十四五规划里军工装备的投入增速，再瞅瞅今年中报预增的航发产业链，这分明是行业周期拐点撞上估值修复，跟五年前的新能源车启动前夜倒有几分神 似。不过帮主得提醒您，军工这行当就像老火炖汤，得耐着性子等订单落地的真材实料。 化工板块的异动更有嚼头。江天化学、中毅达这些标的涨停，表面看是跟着原油价格起舞，实则藏着产业升级的大棋。您可能没注意，特种化学品进口替代 正在悄悄提速，这就好比当年光伏产业从"两头在外"到全产业链自主 ...

经营稳定、现金流充裕的优势，叠加目前被严重低估的市值水平，使药师帮具备明显的"烟蒂股"特征， 吸引了公募基金的重点关注。对比其他港股医疗科技公司，药师帮的估值倍数明显偏低，当前市值远低 于企业内在价值。有分析师认为，"烟蒂股"的预期空间主要体现在短期估值修复：当市场情绪改善或行 业景气度回升时，股票价格将向内在价值回归，而其中的优质企业通过经营改善，也更有机会实现长期 价值的提升。 随着国内政策持续推动基层医疗资源配置优化，药师帮等具备数字化先发优势的企业将有望进入发展快 车道。药师帮的回购增持、业绩兑现将与资金面改善形成合力，"基本面向上+估值洼地"的稀缺属性愈 加明显，中长线布局的机会点或已出现。 近日，药师帮（9885.HK）持续释放积极信号。5月7日公告显示，公司根据2024年股份回购授权，首次 回购合共300,000股股份，总代价约为210.4万港元，平均每股7.0147港元，回购股份将被注销。公司拟 于2025年10月31日前动用最多1亿元港币于公开市场回购股份。回购计划高效推进，展现公司对于自身 业绩和未来市场的正面预期。管理层也同步增持提振信心，执行董事陈飞于4月连续增持50万股（约 316. ...

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250507 估值异常因子绩效月报 20250430 2025 年 05 月 07 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 ◼ 估值偏离 EPD 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 4 月，估值偏离 EPD 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组多 空对冲的年化收益为 17.65%，年化波动为 10.02%，信息比率为 1.76， 月度胜率为 71.04%，月度最大回撤为 8.93%。 ◼ 缓慢偏离 EPDS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 4 月，缓慢偏离 EPDS 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组 多空对冲的年化收益为 16.31%，年化波动为 5.73%，信息比率为 2.85， 月度胜率为 79.23%，月度最大回撤为 3.10%。 ◼ 估值异常 EPA 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 4 月，估值异常 EPA 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组多空 对冲的年化收益为 17.30%， ...

截至2025年5月7日 13:15，恒生医疗保健指数(HSHCI)下跌3.02%。成分股方面涨跌互现，远大医药(00512)领涨12.52%，上海医药(02607)上涨2.23%，中国中 药(00570)上涨1.96%；三生制药(01530)领跌8.40%，亚盛医药-B(06855)下跌8.13%，百济神州(06160)下跌7.70%。恒生医疗ETF(513060)下跌2.65%，最新报 价0.48元。流动性方面，恒生医疗ETF盘中换手10.83%，成交10.96亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至5月6日，恒生医疗ETF近1月日均成交17.01亿 元，排名可比基金第一。 东方证券指出，从2024年报和2025年一季报数据来看，随着诊疗需求的持续释放以及国产创新产品进入商业化周期，部分板块持续边际改善。考虑到供给端 创新所带来的需求端快速增长，未来若干个季度行业成长较为确定，再叠加"低仓位+估值底"，我们认为当前是配置医药行业极佳的时间点。 从估值层面来看，恒生医疗ETF跟踪的恒生医疗保健指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅24.9倍，处于近1年8.73%的分位，即估值低于近1年91.27%以上的时间， 处于历史 ...