Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Walmart and other U.S. retailers due to increased tariffs, leading to layoffs and potential price hikes for consumers as they navigate cost pressures and competition in the retail sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Walmart's Response to Tariffs - Walmart plans to lay off approximately 1,500 employees as part of a restructuring effort to reduce costs amid rising tariff pressures [3]. - The company has already made cuts earlier in the year and is adjusting its organizational structure to better compete with e-commerce rivals like Amazon [3][4]. - Walmart's CEO indicated that while the company and its suppliers are absorbing some tariff costs, the scale of the tariffs makes it impossible to fully offset them [4]. Group 2: Impact on Consumer Prices - Consumers in the U.S. are likely to see price increases starting from late May, with some items already experiencing price hikes of over 20% since February [5]. - The article highlights that a significant portion of Walmart's imported goods comes from China, which exacerbates the cost pressures due to tariffs [4][5]. - Analysts predict that overall food prices in the U.S. will rise by 2.6% over the next three years due to increased tariffs, with grocery prices expected to increase by 2.7% this year [7][8]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, indicating growing concerns about the economy [8]. - The article notes that high inflation and interest rates could dampen consumer spending, which is crucial for the U.S. economy [7][8]. - Retail giants are attempting to mitigate the impact of tariffs by negotiating with suppliers and adjusting product offerings, but the pressure on prices remains significant [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Walmart and other U.S. retailers due to tariffs, leading to layoffs and potential price increases for consumers. Group 1: Company Actions - Walmart plans to lay off approximately 1,500 employees as part of a restructuring effort to reduce costs [2][3] - This is the second round of layoffs for Walmart in 2023, following earlier job cuts and office closures [3] - The layoffs will impact Walmart's global technology operations, e-commerce fulfillment in U.S. stores, and advertising business [3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - Tariffs on imports from countries like Costa Rica, Peru, Colombia, and especially China have significantly increased costs for Walmart [1][4] - Approximately one-third of Walmart's imported goods come from China, with a large portion being clothing, electronics, and toys [4] - Walmart's CFO indicated that while some tariff costs are being absorbed, the scale of the tariffs makes it impossible to fully mitigate their impact [4] Group 3: Consumer Price Trends - Consumers may start seeing price increases as early as the end of May, with some items already experiencing price hikes of over 20% since February [5] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to rise, with predictions of a 3.0-3.5% annual inflation rate [8] - The USDA forecasts a 3.2% increase in overall food prices this year, with grocery store prices expected to rise by 2.7% [8] Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, indicating potential challenges for retail sales [9] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflects a significant decline, suggesting that consumers are tightening their spending [9] - Economic analysts express concerns that rising prices and high inflation could dampen consumer purchasing power and overall economic activity [8][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Hot Rolled Coil, Manganese Ore, Coke, BR Rubber, Styrene, Urea, LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Stock Index, Bond Futures, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, PTA, Short Fiber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market's reaction to tariff shocks and policy support is waning. The stock index's rebound has reached the upper limit of the range, and there is a risk of short - term shock adjustment. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Safe - haven demand drives up the price of gold, and its long - term upward logic remains solid. Silver follows gold but has limited medium - term upside. Weak macro data and downstream demand suppress copper prices in the short term. Aluminum's low inventory provides support, but the upside is limited [1]. - The situation in Guinea affects alumina prices, but the improvement in production profit may lead to复产 and limit the upside. Nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by supply, demand, and policy factors, showing short - term sideways movement [1]. - Before the resumption of production in Wa State, tin prices have strong fundamental support. Industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and is in a low - valuation range. Polysilicon has few registered warehouse receipts and a low willingness to register due to futures discounting spot [1]. - Lithium carbonate supply has not further shrunk, inventory is accumulating, and downstream procurement is based on rigid demand. Rebar and hot - rolled coil have insufficient price rebound drivers due to cost loosening and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. - Iron ore has a peak iron - making water expectation, and manganese ore is expected to decline due to oversupply. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand turns tight due to production cuts. Glass and soda ash face supply - demand challenges, with glass affected by the rainy season and soda ash facing medium - term oversupply [1]. - Coking coal and coke are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and there are opportunities for positive spreads and selling hedging. Palm oil, rapeseed oil, and cotton are affected by various factors such as weather, policy, and season, showing sideways or slightly weak trends [1]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and wheat has a tight annual supply - demand expectation. Soybean meal is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pulp and logs have no obvious upward momentum [1]. - In the livestock market, the pig inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot. Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as the Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and financial market risk preference [1]. - Natural rubber is affected by rainfall and storage rumors. BR rubber is expected to decline in the short and long term. PTA's supply - demand situation has changed, and ethylene glycol is in a de - stocking stage [1]. - Styrene and urea face weak demand. Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policy, showing sideways or slightly strong trends. LPG is expected to move sideways or decline in the short term [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The rebound has reached the upper limit of the range, and there is a risk of short - term shock adjustment due to the lack of incremental catalysts [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - **Gold**: Safe - haven demand drives up the price, and the long - term upward logic is solid [1]. - **Silver**: Follows gold, but has limited medium - term upside [1]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Weak macro data and downstream demand lead to short - term weak operation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory provides support, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to move sideways [1]. - **Alumina**: The situation in Guinea drives up the price, but production profit improvement may lead to复产 and limit the upside [1]. - **Nickel**: Affected by supply, demand, and policy, it shows short - term sideways movement, and there is a long - term surplus pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by supply, demand, and trade factors, it shows short - term sideways movement, and there is long - term supply pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Before the resumption of production in Wa State, it has strong fundamental support [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Strong supply, weak demand, and in a low - valuation range [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Few registered warehouse receipts and low willingness to register due to futures discounting spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory is accumulating, and downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [1]. Black Metals Sector - **Rebar**: Insufficient price rebound drivers due to cost loosening and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Bearish due to potential export weakness, cost loosening, and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a peak iron - making water expectation, and the supply side has no new stories for now [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: Expected to decline due to oversupply and heavy warehouse receipt pressure [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply - demand turns tight due to production cuts despite cost drag [1]. - **Glass**: Affected by the rainy season, the demand may weaken, and the price moves sideways [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Facing medium - term oversupply, the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In a relatively oversupplied situation, there are opportunities for positive spreads and selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production may be affected by the oil price [1]. - **Wheat**: Affected by new wheat listing and policy grain release, it is expected to move sideways, and a long - at - low strategy is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to move sideways in the short term due to the lack of obvious positive drivers [1]. - **Pulp**: Port inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to move sideways [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and the futures price is undervalued, so it is expected to move sideways [1]. - **Pig**: The inventory is recovering, the futures price is at a discount to the spot, and the futures price is stable [1]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by the Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and financial market risk preference [1]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors, it is expected to move sideways [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Affected by rainfall and storage rumors, and a long - short spread strategy can be considered [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Expected to decline in the short and long term [1]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand situation has changed, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In a de - stocking stage, and the spot market change is not obvious [1]. - **Styrene**: Weak demand leads to a decline in price [1]. - **Urea**: Lack of continuous upward momentum due to weak demand [1]. - **Methanol**: Affected by production, import, and macro factors, it is expected to move sideways at a low level [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Affected by production, demand, and policy, showing sideways or slightly strong trends [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term spot is strong, and the subsequent trend depends on the alumina market [1]. - **LPG**: Expected to move sideways or decline in the short term due to tariff, demand, and supply factors [1]. Other Sector - **Freight Index**: A long - at - low strategy can be considered for the peak - season contract, and spread trading opportunities can be focused on [1].

Economic Performance - In April, the US PPI decreased by 0.5%, significantly below the expected increase of 0.2%, indicating a temporary absorption of tariff costs by manufacturers and service providers[13] - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, reflecting resilience in the US labor market[15] - Retail sales in April showed a marginal increase of 0.1%, lower than the expected 0% and a revised previous value of 1.7%[19] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The inflationary impact of tariffs is expected to manifest later, as April's economic data shows structural damage due to tariffs, but current economic activities are rebounding[5] - Walmart's earnings report indicated strong sales but warned of future price increases due to the inability to absorb tariffs long-term[5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is considering modifying its policy framework to adapt to changing economic conditions, potentially returning to a traditional inflation target of 2%[20] - The recent adjustment in the Fed's framework is not expected to significantly impact current monetary policy decisions in the short term[21] Credit Rating and Fiscal Policy - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising government debt and interest payment risks, marking a significant shift as all major rating agencies have now rated the US below the highest tier[24] - The House of Representatives has advanced a tax reform bill that could increase the deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, further straining fiscal policy[25] Market Risks - The recent recovery in US equities faces skepticism regarding the sustainability of the dollar's rebound, with global funds yet to systematically adjust their positions in US stocks[26] - Rising interest rates are expected to limit further gains in the stock market, as the current environment pressures non-US markets and commodities[27]

| I C E H Ho | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博策略参 | | | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | 行业板块 趋势研判 品种 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减,加上当前 | | 股指 震荡 | | 反弹已至区间上沿,在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入 | | | | 震荡整固阶段,策略上、短线多单考虑冲高止盈, 警惕调整风险 | | 宏观金融 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 国债 | | 空间。 | | 賣金 農汤 | | 多空交织，短期金价或盘整震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | 白银 震荡 | C B | 跟随黄金宽幅震荡, 但中期上方空间有限。 | | 看空 第四 | | 近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市场风险偏好,叠加铜下游需求有 | | | | 所转弱,铜价短期偏弱运行。 | | 農汤 | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | | | | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | 氢化 ...

Group 1 - Japan's April exports increased by 2% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of slowdown and the lowest growth rate since October of the previous year [1] - Imports in Japan shrank by 2.2% year-on-year, which was less than the expected decline of 4.5% [1] - Japan's trade deficit narrowed to 115.8 billion yen (approximately 803.1 million USD), lower than the expected 227.1 billion yen, with March's trade deficit recorded at 559.4 billion yen [1] Group 2 - Japan's manufacturing sector is under pressure due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S., particularly a 25% tariff on automotive, steel, and aluminum exports [2] - In 2024, automobiles are projected to account for 28.3% of Japan's total exports to the U.S., making it the largest export category [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs poses a continuous risk to Japan's export-driven economy, potentially leading to further profit pressures for export-oriented companies [2]

Economic Resilience and Recovery - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion[7] - April's consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak domestic demand[8] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating continued price pressure in the industrial sector[11] Trade and Investment Trends - Exports in April grew by 8.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate declined by 4.3 percentage points from the previous month; imports fell by 0.2%[14] - The total social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan in the first four months, with RMB loans to the real economy rising by 9.78 trillion yuan[19] - Fixed asset investment from January to April was 147,024 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%[30] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate development investment in the first four months was 27,730 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing[27] - New housing sales area decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, but the sales volume is showing signs of stabilization[29] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing slightly decreased, indicating potential for recovery in the real estate market[34] Overall Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience but lacks strong upward momentum, necessitating increased policy support to boost market confidence[3] - Despite challenges, the overall trend for 2025 is expected to be upward, with patience required for recovery[38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data in April showed a two - sided nature. The domestic economy demonstrated strong resilience under tariff shocks, with high - speed consumption growth and better - than - expected exports. However, the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, as indicated by the decline in manufacturing PMI, low price indices, and low real - estate new construction and investment growth rates. The overall macro - economic situation was bottom - supported but lacked upward momentum, and macro - policies were required to enhance market confidence. Despite the setbacks, the macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][36][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Significantly Declined under Tariff Shocks - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were all below the critical point and declined compared to the previous month. Among the 5 classification indices of manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, while the production, new order, raw material inventory, and employee indices were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in April was 50.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month but still above the critical point. The construction and service industries also declined. With the reduction of Sino - US tariff rates, the manufacturing PMI in May was likely to rise [7]. 2. CPI and PPI Continued to Be Weak in April - In April 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The CPI was weak due to insufficient domestic demand. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The decline in coal and crude oil prices in April dragged down the PPI, reflecting weak domestic demand and relative over - capacity in corresponding industries [8][9][11]. 3. Exports Increased by 8.1% Year - on - Year in April, while Imports Decreased by 0.2% - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with a 4.3 - percentage - point decline in growth rate compared to the previous month. Imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing by 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The trade surplus was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from the previous month. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year. Despite the impact of tariffs, the high export growth rate might be related to "entrepot trade" and "rush - to - export" by enterprises. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, exports were expected to maintain high growth in the next few months [14][16]. 4. The Credit Structure in April Was Weak, while M1 and M2 Were in an Improving Trend - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The credit structure was weak, as the confidence and credit demand of residents and enterprises were weakened by tariffs, but the significant increase in government bond issuance offset the decline in credit demand. M1 and M2 were in an upward trend overall [19][24]. 5. Industrial Production Was Stable, and Consumption Growth Remained High - In April, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year and 0.22% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in April were 3.7174 trillion yuan, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. The consumption growth rate remained high due to consumption - promotion policies, but the sales of automobiles and petroleum products dragged down the growth [25]. 6. Real - Estate Sales Adopted a Strategy of Trading Price for Volume and Had a Foundation for Stabilization - From January to April, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, with the decline rates narrowing. The real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. The real - estate market was expected to further narrow the decline in sales area and volume year - on - year. After the "policy bottom" in September 2024, the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging, and the overall drag of real estate on the macro - economy would significantly narrow [27][31][35]. 7. Summary and Outlook - The macro - economic data in April showed two - sided characteristics. The domestic economy was resilient but lacked recovery momentum. The overall macro - economy was bottom - supported but lacked upward momentum. The domestic market had sufficient policy space to hedge against external demand decline through stimulating domestic demand. The macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [36][38].

中美关税博弈按下了90天的"暂停键"。5月12日，随着《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，中美大 幅降低双边关税水平，超出了很多人的预期。然而，关税战没有赢家。90天之后，中美双方关税是否加 征、加征多少仍是未知数。 "美国总统特朗普政府的一个显著的特点就是朝令夕改，不确定性。"5月18日，在2025清华五道口全球 金融论坛的一场主题讨论上，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任王一鸣表 示，关税冲击的影响是多方面的。 关税冲击之下，对国际贸易的讨论成了不少论坛的焦点话题之一。5月17日，2025清华五道口全球金融 论坛开幕，在"新形势下的国际贸易与投资"主题讨论中，多位专家、学者和行业代表聚焦全球变局中贸 易与投资的挑战和机遇，探讨如何在复杂多变的国际环境中寻找新的增长点，构建更具韧性的合作框 架。 关税冲击仍在持续 从全球来看，美国与部分国家的关税谈判仍在进行中，美滥施关税的冲击波仍在持续，大家都在观望， 这把国际贸易的"悬顶之剑"会不会落下？怎么落？何时落？会砸到谁？ "当前影响国际贸易和投资最重要的一个事件就是关税问题。"中国进出口银行原董事长、中国国际经济 交流中心副理事长胡晓炼在 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, resulting in mutual tariff reductions, with the US tariff on China decreasing to 42% and China's tariff on the US decreasing to 27% [2][26][31] - The US overall average tariff rate has dropped from 27% to 16%, although the new tariffs may still lead to a 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation [2][26] - The article highlights the performance of major stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2% and the S&P 500 by 5.3% during the week [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the US CPI for April was 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs [40] - Retail sales in the US for April showed a slight increase of 0.1%, which was better than the expected 0%, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, the retail performance was weaker than anticipated [44] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 229,000, slightly above the market expectation of 228,000, suggesting potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [46] Group 3 - The article mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed movements [12][14] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 100.98, with most other currencies depreciating against the dollar [17] - Commodity prices were mixed, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.4% to $62.5 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 4.0% to $3191.8 per ounce [21][23]