策略周论：暗藏的变化 20250505 摘要 • 关税冲击修复：日本和美国股市在关税影响消除后反弹，并在 5 月 2 日超 过关税前水平，部分甚至创新高，表明关税冲击对股市影响已基本修复。 • 中国资产韧性：尽管中国资产在关税冲击后表现较弱，但对美贸易依赖度 下降使其具备韧性，且市场尚未充分定价这一因素。 • 美国股市纠结：美国股市虽因非农数据超预期而创新高，但 GDP 数据不及 预期，叠加政治因素，导致美股反弹脆弱，降息预期可能延后。 • 中国政策应对：中国加强与非美经济体合作，并释放与美国接触的信息， 同时预计将出台内需政策，以应对外部贸易不确定性并促进国内需求。 • 宏观波动预测：预计到 2025 年第二季度，美国宏观波动将放大，中国将 明确外部谈判结果并出台内需政策，共同导致全球市场波动加剧。 • 下游盈利修复：自 2022 年起，下游领域盈利逐步修复，中游也开始触底， 内需板块中一季报表现较好的公司可能引起市场关注。 • 黄金市场换挡：人民币资产修复削弱了黄金的中国需求支撑，资金可能回 流人民币资产。黄金在回调后将进入换挡时期，逐步企稳蓄力。 Q&A 关税冲击对全球市场的影响如何？ 美国股市在近期的 ...

金十数据5月6日讯，摩根士丹利由首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen领衔的分析师团队在一份研报中写 道："鉴于美联储预计通胀将保持坚挺，且关税冲击可能会产生持续的通胀效应，美联储不太可能采取 先发制人的行动。"虽然特朗普自4月2日的"解放日"以来已部分放宽关税举措，在一定程度上稳定了债 市和股市。但投资者表示，市场对后续形势进展的整体焦虑情绪并没有消散。管理着8,370亿美元资产 的PGIM Fixed Income公司联席首席投资官Gregory Peters表示："我们建议投资者继续保持谨慎，降低风 险。" 大摩：美联储不会先发制人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff measures on the bond market, highlighting a rapid decline in interest rates and the subsequent stabilization, while emphasizing the need to monitor external demand shocks and government debt issuance in May [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In April, following the implementation of tariff measures by the Trump administration, the stock market experienced a significant drop, leading to a rapid decline in long-term bond yields [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield remained stable around 1.65% during the latter part of April, reflecting market adjustments to external demand shocks and monetary policy expectations [2][3]. - The issuance of special government bonds has been confirmed, with net financing for government bonds in May expected to be around 623.4 billion, indicating a moderate level of financing activity [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity gap in May is projected to be around 1500 billion, which is considered manageable, suggesting a continuation of a loose monetary environment [5]. - Despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, the central bank has not implemented significant monetary easing measures, maintaining a stance of "appropriate looseness" in monetary policy [6][7]. - The article anticipates that the central bank may prioritize a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter, depending on external economic conditions [7]. Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - In April, credit bond yields decreased, particularly in short-term bonds, with credit spreads for one-year bonds narrowing by up to 14 basis points [9]. - The article notes a shift in the yield curve, with the potential for long-term credit bonds to experience upward adjustments in yields [9][10]. - The analysis suggests that selecting 3-5 year credit bonds could yield higher returns, with estimated riding yields of 0.4% to 2% depending on the holding period [10]. Group 4: Interest Rate Trends - Recent trends indicate a decline in overnight funding rates, with the 7-day moving average of DR001 dropping to 1.65%, reflecting a 30 basis point decrease from previous highs [11]. - The article emphasizes the need for a supportive monetary environment to stimulate domestic demand, with expectations for short- to medium-term government bond yields to benefit from this liquidity [11][12]. - The current yield curve is described as relatively flat, with a higher probability of a steepening trend in the near future [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In April, the economic expansion pace slowed down, but business production and operation activities remained in an expansion state. The manufacturing industry was affected by tariff shocks, with enterprises actively reducing inventory due to risk aversion. The non - manufacturing industry was supported by front - loaded fiscal policies in the construction sector. In the bond market, the one - year Treasury yield has room to decline, and after the ten - year Treasury yield approaches the previous low, value - type equity assets may show better allocation value [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Manufacturing - **Supply and demand**: In April, the production index dropped 2.8 to 49.8, and the new order index dropped 2.6 to 49.2. The new export order dropped 4.3 to 44.7, while domestic demand relatively recovered. Industries such as food and medicine had both supply and demand indices above 53.0, while industries like textile and clothing and metal products saw significant declines in both indices, falling below the critical point [2]. - **Price and profit**: Affected by insufficient market demand and the continuous decline of some commodity prices, the main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 47.0 and 44.8 respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 from the previous month [2]. - **Inventory and production expansion**: Uncertainty led enterprises to actively reduce inventory. In April, the purchase volume dropped 5.5 to 46.3, imports dropped 4.1 to 43.3, raw material inventory and finished product inventory decreased by 0.2 and 0.7 respectively. The production and operation activity expectation dropped 1.7 to 52.1, falling for three consecutive months, and the employment index dropped 0.3 to 47.9 [2]. - **Enterprise size impact**: The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.2, 48.8, and 48.7 respectively, down 2.0, 1.1, and 0.9 from the previous month, all below the critical point [3]. - **Industry segment impact**: The PMI of high - tech manufacturing dropped 0.8 to 51.5, equipment manufacturing dropped 2.4 to 49.6, consumer goods industry dropped 0.6 to 49.4, and basic raw material industry dropped 1.6 to 47.7 [3]. Non - manufacturing - **Overall situation**: In April, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4, down 0.4 month - on - month. The construction industry PMI dropped 1.5 to 51.9, and the service industry PMI dropped 0.2 to 50.1. Industries such as air transportation, telecommunications, and the Internet were in a high - prosperity range, while industries like water transportation and capital market services were below the critical point [4][5]. - **Demand side**: The non - manufacturing external demand deteriorated significantly. The new order index was 44.9, down 1.7 month - on - month, and the new export order dropped 7.6 to 42.2. The new order index of the construction industry was 39.6, down 3.9 month - on - month, and that of the service industry was 45.9, down 1.2 month - on - month [5]. 4. Investment Advice Given the tariff shocks causing enterprises to shrink their businesses and the significant decline in the prosperity of the equipment manufacturing industry, and considering the central government's stable policy stance, in the bond market, the one - year Treasury yield has room to decline. After the ten - year Treasury yield approaches the previous low (1.6%), value - type equity assets are expected to gradually show better allocation value [6].

金十数据5月2日讯，Principal资产管理公司t首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示，我们可以将对经济衰退的 担忧再推迟一个月。就业数据仍然非常强劲，这表明在关税冲击之前，经济存在令人印象深刻的弹性。 这表明，经济疲软可能在几个月内不会真正体现在数据中，这反过来又会将美联储的下一次降息时点推 至第三季度。经济将在未来几个月疲软，但凭借现在这种潜在的势头，如果美国能够及时从关税边缘退 下来，就有可能避免经济衰退。 机构：就目前而言，美国经济衰退已经推迟了 ...

亚马逊盘前跌逾2%，利润指引逊色，预警关税冲击。 ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 27 April 2025 Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com Tongfang Yuan (852) 2800-0085 tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch China: April Politburo meeting emphasized policy reserves No rush for more incremental policy stimulus yet, as expected The April Politburo meeting was held on 25 April, focusing on economic conditions and policy guidance. This policy event has been closely watched by market participants in antic ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for April is 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[1] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, while the construction PMI is at 51.9%, also down 1.5 percentage points[1] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is the largest among the three sectors, falling below the 50% threshold, signaling external demand's impact on the economy[1] Group 2: External Demand Impact - Concerns over tariffs have materialized, with the April manufacturing PMI drop exceeding the historical average decline of 0.7 percentage points[1] - The April manufacturing PMI's month-on-month decline of 1.5 percentage points is the third largest for this period in the last decade, following declines of 2.1 and 2.7 percentage points in April 2022 and 2023, respectively[1] - The manufacturing production index fell by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, while the new orders index decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 49.2%, primarily due to a drop in export orders[1] Group 3: Employment and Pricing Trends - The employment index in manufacturing decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9%, while the construction employment index fell significantly to 37.8%, the lowest on record[2] - The input price index for raw materials dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 47%, while the output price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.8%, indicating greater pressure on output prices compared to input prices[2] - The textile and equipment manufacturing sectors, which are more reliant on external demand, experienced greater declines in PMI compared to high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods sectors[2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that external demand pressures may increase in May and June due to tariff changes and global manufacturing trends[1] - To counteract the impact of declining exports, boosting service demand is highlighted as a critical strategy, requiring more policy support to enhance overall economic activity[2] - Upcoming growth stabilization policies are expected to be implemented in the second quarter, focusing on expanding domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to mitigate export impacts[2]

美国在周四假期前，今晚将密集公布重磅数据，让市场严阵以待。本次公布的数据中，季度GDP和月度PCE物价指数凑到了一起，当下的市场正值特朗普贸 易政策的阴影中，经济放缓将成为显示关税经济影响的首批"硬数据"指标之一，意味着在周一转为谨慎开局的市场可能再度迎来大幅震荡。 今晚的GDP报告不仅是特朗普总统任期初期经济状况的评估，也是首批展现特朗普对美国贸易伙伴加征关税影响的"硬数据"指标 之一。特朗普的加征关税 始于2月份，并在4月份达到顶峰。调查显示，受关税影响，企业和个人对经济的悲观情绪日益加剧，但包括失业率和通胀在内的关键经济指标迄今为止仍保 持韧性。 市场预期第一季度美国GDP年增长率仅为0.4%，较上一季度的2.4%大幅放缓，也是自2022年以来最慢的增长速度。贸易逆差将成为最大的拖累因素，因为 企业在特朗普政府提高关税之前提前进口商品，消费者也争相购买可能因关税而价格上涨的商品。 今晚另一份重磅报告聚焦在美联储青睐的通胀指标——PCE物价指数，扣除食品和燃料的核心个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）预计较上年同期上涨2.6%，将 是自6月以来的最小年度涨幅。但基于关税影响的扩大，经济学家预计，PCE物价指数将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data reflects the impact of tariff shocks, indicating that the previous "export rush" has come to an end, with significant declines in both manufacturing PMI and new export orders, surpassing the declines seen in 2018 [1] Dimension 1: Direct Impact - The new export orders index for April PMI dropped by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, marking a decline much steeper than the -2.7 percentage points seen during the lowest growth rates between 2018-2019 [5] - High-frequency data also shows a clear decline in export container freight rates to regions such as the U.S. West Coast, East Coast, and South America in April, signaling the end of the "export rush" [5] Dimension 2: Indirect Impact - The PMI new orders index, representing domestic demand, fell to 49.2% (down 2.6 percentage points), while the PMI production index dropped to 49.8% (down 2.8 percentage points), both falling below the growth threshold and contributing to the overall decline in manufacturing PMI [11] Dimension 3: Corporate Behavior Impact - As demand weakens, companies are more inclined to reduce prices to clear inventory, with the PMI finished goods inventory index decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 47.3% and the PMI production expectations index falling by 1.7 percentage points [13] - The PMI ex-factory price index also declined by 3.1 percentage points to 44.8%, indicating ongoing downward pressure on inflation [13] Dimension 4: Employment and Expectations Impact - The negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the PMI employment index and production expectations index may be more significant and longer-lasting than the direct effects on exports [16] - The PMI employment index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9%, aligning with the political bureau's emphasis on "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing enterprises," and "stabilizing expectations" [16] Dimension 5: Impact by Enterprise Type - In April, the PMIs for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.2%, 48.8%, and 48.7% respectively, with declines of 2.0 percentage points, 1.1 percentage points, and 0.9 percentage points, indicating a downturn in business sentiment across all sizes, particularly among small enterprises [17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing sector also experienced a decline, with the construction PMI at 51.9% (down 1.5 percentage points) and the services PMI at 50.1% (down 0.2 percentage points), both at historically low levels [20] Policy Implications - The tariff shocks reflected in the PMI data suggest that policy measures may need to prioritize "stabilizing livelihoods" over "total countermeasures," with a focus on targeted structural policies for affected enterprises expected to be accelerated [22]