2025.06. 26 本文字数：2261，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 备受市场关注的"国补"资金，有了新进展。 国家发改委政策研究室副主任李超26日在发布会上表示，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资 金。 李超表示，将更加注重"时序性"和"均衡性"的原则，分领域制定落实到每月、每周的"国补"资金使用 计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全年有序实施。 面对外部环境的不确定性增加，下半年稳增长政策仍需加力，消费品以旧换新等扩内需政策措施有望 继续优化升级。李超强调，当前外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性有所增加，全球经贸稳定增长 面临挑战，这些都会影响经济平稳运行。随着存量政策加快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施， 我们有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推动经济持续健康发展。 确保"两新"全年有序实施 今年以来，各地持续加力扩围"两新"政策，有力推动消费潜力加速释放。 从最新经济数据来看，5月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，增速是2024年以来最高水平，消 费成为拉动经济增长的重要引擎。其中，消费品以旧换新政策发挥了重要作用。 李超介绍，消费品以旧换新方面，超长期特 ...

制造分论坛 - 新格局 新供给 2025 年中期策略报告会 20250625 摘要 银河证券研究院看好"新质生产力"和内需复苏，重点关注工业智能机 器人、工程机械和自主可控领域。人形机器人、可控核聚变和低空经济 等板块仍具投资价值，工程机械板块回调后是左侧布局时机。 人形机器人本体企业预计最快 2027 年 A 股上市，2025 年中国人形机 器人本体销量预计超 2 万台，为放量元年。2026 年销量有望达数万台， 应用场景落地和数据训练是关键。 机器人已能在特定数据训练下替代部分人工，但完全通用泛化的家庭服 务机器人十年内难以实现。2025 年下半年投资重点将聚焦于机器人应 用场景落地的标的。 2025 年机器人板块表现分化，BOM 价值占比高、有明确主体、与大客 户绑定或存在边际变化的零部件板块涨幅更优。优必选产业链和华为产 业链表现突出。 人形机器人零部件标的估值存在泡沫化，硬件端零部件壁垒正逐步打破， 价值量呈下降趋势。零部件企业未来发展依赖于所属供应链的本体企业。 Q&A 银河证券研究院在机械制造领域的研究重点和策略布局是怎样的？ 银河证券研究院的机械团队，有时也称为制造团队，与军工团队和交运团队、 ...

面对外部环境的不确定性增加，下半年稳增长政策仍需加力，消费品以旧换新等扩内需政策措施有望继 续优化升级。 备受市场关注的"国补"资金，有了新进展。 国家发改委政策研究室副主任李超26日在发布会上表示，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资 金。 李超表示，将更加注重"时序性"和"均衡性"的原则，分领域制定落实到每月、每周的"国补"资金使用计 划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全年有序实施。 面对外部环境的不确定性增加，下半年稳增长政策仍需加力，消费品以旧换新等扩内需政策措施有望继 续优化升级。李超强调，当前外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性有所增加，全球经贸稳定增长面临 挑战，这些都会影响经济平稳运行。随着存量政策加快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施，我们有 信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推动经济持续健康发展。 确保"两新"全年有序实施 今年以来，各地持续加力扩围"两新"政策，有力推动消费潜力加速释放。 从最新经济数据来看，5月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，增速是2024年以来最高水平，消费成 为拉动经济增长的重要引擎。其中，消费品以旧换新政策发挥了重要作用。 李超介绍，消费品以旧换新 ...

Group 1 - Multiple policy measures are being implemented to boost consumption and expand domestic demand [6] - The aviation authority has prohibited passengers from carrying unqualified power banks on domestic flights [12] - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's energy ministers signed agreements for clean energy with a total installed capacity exceeding 12 million kilowatts [13] Group 2 - The Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank held its 10th annual council meeting, with significant participation from various countries [3] - The West-to-East Gas Transmission Project's section from Turpan to Zhongwei has been fully completed and put into operation [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating [3] 2. Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly, with downstream consumption gradually weakening. The supply growth is accelerating due to increased production by smelters and the release of new and restarted capacities. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. The domestic social inventory is stable, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - selling pressure is weakening with reduced positions. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 95 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,710 dollars/ton, up 29.5 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 264,399 lots, up 4,519 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 16,294 lots, up 3,065 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,473 tons, down 696 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory is 42,864 tons, down 2,602 tons; the LME inventory is 122,875 tons, down 575 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 17.39 dollars/ton, up 2.78 dollars [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, an improvement of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an improvement of 10,400 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3] - The zinc social inventory is 58,400 tons, down 2,200 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.73%, up 12.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.69%, up 10.48 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.1%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.23%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and decisions should be based on actual data. The US economy outperforms others, so interest rates may be higher, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point [3] - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and global consensus on effective regulation is needed [3] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out the need to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, and build a new real - estate development model [3]

数据显示下滑明显，需求预计进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增 免责声明 加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。本周基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 多是政策预期，预计反弹高度和力度将较为有限.操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持逢高空思维。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1180 | 环比 数据指标 14 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1016 | 环比 -1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 铝类产业日报 2025/6/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,445.00 | +90.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,948.00 | +29.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 85.00 | +15.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 52.00 | -9.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 260,549.00 | +6534.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 290,722.00 | +6178.00↑ | ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/6/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,890.00 | +80.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,795.50 | +83.00↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 160.00 | -20.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 191,140.00 | +53503.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 6,571.00 | +1689.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 93,475.00 | -1200.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 100,814.00 | -1129.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 37,225.00 | -2925.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 23,696.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 78,9 ...

近期，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士接受了中国媒体群访，分享了他对中国宏观经济的最新观点，以 下是《上海证券报》的专篇报道。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 "以供给来拉动需求，'苏超'是一个很好的例子。"野村中国首席经济学家陆挺日前在接受上海 证券报采访时这样说道。谈及近期大火的江苏省城市足球联赛（下称"苏超"），他兴致勃勃地 表示，本周末他准备回到家乡南通海门，现场观战。 "我的老家海门难得能聚集两万人。除了拉动客流量，还有拉动基建的作用。原来的球场座位 只能坐10000人，这两天海门的建筑业也迎来了新机会，加班加点再装10000个座位。"陆挺表 示。 今年的政府工作报告将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"列为十大任务之 首。陆挺表示，如果将"苏超"看做消费场景，这无疑给提振内需提供了新思路。与此同时，进 一步完善社会保障体系，解决好收入分配问题，消费则有望成为国民经济稳定增长的重要支柱 之一。 从收入端来看，进一步完善社会保障和福利体系，解决好收入分配问题，能够让消费成为国民经 济稳定增长的重要支柱。陆挺认为，医疗保障、社会保障、生育津贴等社会保障体系是支持消费 增长的长期动能。 另外就是创造 ...

Group 1 - The UK government plans to purchase 12 F-35A fighter jets capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons, marking a significant enhancement of its nuclear deterrent capabilities since the Cold War [3] - The European Union is implementing a "rearm Europe" plan with nearly €800 billion allocated for defense spending, allowing member states to increase military expenditures without triggering excessive deficit procedures [3] - The US has urged NATO members to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, which may intensify the global arms race and expand the global military trade market [3] Group 2 - Short-term expectations for the military industry are improving, with Q2 financial reports anticipated to show better performance due to increased orders and inventory adjustments [4] - Mid-term catalysts for the industry are expected to arise in Q3, coinciding with the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War and World Anti-Fascist War, alongside positive Q2 financial forecasts [4] - Long-term projections indicate that China's military equipment market share could reach 15-20% by 2030, with an estimated market demand of approximately ¥1500-2000 billion per year, driven by both domestic and military trade [4] Group 3 - The General Aviation ETF Huabao (159231) covers a comprehensive index of 50 stocks related to military and civil aviation, with over 46% of its components being state-owned enterprises and more than 20% from the top ten military groups [4] - The ETF focuses on key sectors such as low-altitude economy, large aircraft, military aircraft, commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, and drones, positioning itself as a strategic investment in China's aviation industry amid domestic and military trade synergy [4]