"在现在可投资的各种资产中，股票投资是一个比较好的选择。" "我们现在持有的很多高分红 、 经营 稳固 、 商业模式相对比较简单的 资产 ， 都是 我们种 下 的 ' 良田 '， 这也是 我们的基本盘 。在市场动荡的时候，这些东西像是'定海神针'。" "现在世界 变化 很快，各种事件频 发 ，实际上 我们 没有办法去很好的预测会有哪些事情 出现 ，会 有 怎样的影响 。但 我觉得 ，做 投资是可以以不变应万变的 。" 宁泉资产创始人杨东 在今天（ 4月28日）兴证全球基金主办的中国投资人峰会中，面对当下"可为"的权益 市场，有谨慎，更有乐观。 杨东是业内富有盛名的具有战略思维的投资管理人，在重要的周期拐点时，市场总希望得到他的研判和感 觉。 这几年的市场对于大多数投资管理人是难熬的，很多公私募老将，在这段时间里面都有点"表现失速"，期间 回撤三四十还挺普遍。 宁泉一直是渠道和客户中口碑不错的样本： 低调，但持有感受好；牛市里跑的不会很快，熊市保持绝对收 益，震荡市也能抓结构机会。 创始人杨东卸任兴全基金总经理之后，于2018年1月成立宁泉资产。 宁泉旗下产品宁泉稳有益，截至最新净值日期2025年4月18日，今 ...

【 机构观点综评 】招商证券称，政策平稳发力，债市环境友好。摩根基金认为，A股市场中有许 多具有全球竞争力的企业仍被严重低估，从长期来看，它们具有非常大的投资机会。 一、焦点锐评 1.政治局：要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，以高质量 发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别 国债等发行使用。适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕。要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，既 定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固 经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。 【点评】广发证券表述，本次政治局会议有三大特点，一是主线明确，"以高质量发展的确定性 应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"，做好"底线"和"预案"。二是政策具备广谱性，有带动固定资 产投资的政策，也有带动消费的政策；有带动传统部门的政策，也有带动新兴部门的政策。三是 政策整体集中于见效较快的领域。国泰基金认为，从会议来看，未来政策有望继续 ...

外需： 4月出口或回落，关税不确定性对出口仍有支撑。 ①关税对外需影响初步显现，4月韩国前20天出口增速回落，我国集装箱吞吐量等出口数量指标有所下行。但考虑到关税不确定性仍在，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢 出口需求，将对外需有一定支撑。 核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房销售走弱、车持平上月，室外出游热度较高。 ①房销售走弱、车持平上月，家电销售均价同比增速跌多涨少。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房价升量减。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速持平上月，批发有所 回升，受市场需求疲软影响，轮胎企业调整生产计划，导致半钢胎开工回落；本周家电价格多有上行。 ② 本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流上升，一线城市至海口的航班均价转为上行。不过，电影市场表现仍旧惨淡，持续位于历年同期低位。五一假期临近， 建议关注假期消费情况。 生产： 产能调控需加强，传统基建有望加速恢复。 ①由于4月以来多地错峰生产执行力度减弱，竞争加剧，本周水泥价格续降，企业库容比续升，终端需求暂弱，本周水泥发运率继续回落。 ②本周石油沥青开工率继续上行，同比回正，样本建筑工地资金到位率续升，同时水泥基建直供量超过去年 ...

点击上图 ▲立即报名 商务部召开外资企业圆桌会 4月 23日，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国4月Markit综合PMI初值51.2，为2023年12月以来的最低值，预期52，前值53。其中，新订单指数从 3月的53.3降至52.5；产出价格环比上涨，为去年3月以来的最高。美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.6，前值54.4。服务出口（包括 旅游及其他跨境服务）下降幅度为2023年1月以来最大，尤其显著抑制了需求增长。 4月 23日，商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激主持召开外资企业圆桌会，就美加征关税给在华外资企业投资经营带来的影响与企业交流。 会议由中国外商投资企业协会主办，80余家外资企业和在华外国商会代表参会。财政部、商务部、海关总署、国家药监局有关司局负责人参会并 回应企业反映的问题诉求。 凌激表示，希望外资企业发出理性声音，坚定信心、克服困难、化危为机，共同战胜单边主义和保护主义。中国将继续扩大高水平对外开放，努 力保障产供链稳定畅通，推动解决外资企业问题诉求。与会企业代表表示，中国的外资政策持续、稳定、可预期，愿继续对华投资，深化互利合 作，共同应对挑战。（央视新闻） ｜点评｜ ...

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a positive start for the year amid external uncertainties [1] - The continuous release of policy effects has contributed to high-quality development and economic recovery [1] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Emerging consumption trends such as ice and snow economy, low-altitude economy, and silver economy are driving demand and attracting investment [2][3] Demand-Side Management - Effective demand management is crucial for economic recovery, with a focus on enhancing domestic consumption as a driving force [3] - The government has implemented policies to stimulate consumption, particularly targeting the shortfalls in effective demand [3][4] Investment Opportunities - The government is promoting effective investment to boost short-term economic growth and long-term stability [4] - Successful case studies, such as the transformation of a failed project into a biopharmaceutical park, highlight the potential for effective investment to enhance resource utilization [4] Export Growth - China's exports grew by 6.9% in Q1, reflecting the competitiveness of "Made in China" products in the global market [4] - The diverse demands of the global market are being met by Chinese enterprises, showcasing the adaptability and strength of the manufacturing sector [4] Market Potential - The Chinese market offers significant opportunities due to its large population and stable growth, fostering a positive interaction between supply and demand [5] - The ongoing development trends indicate a robust economic foundation, with potential for further growth and innovation [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][34] Core Views - In March, retail sales showed a month-on-month recovery, increasing consumer demand focus. The retail sales growth rate in March was 5.9% year-on-year, up 1.9 percentage points from January-February, indicating a sustained recovery in consumption driven by previous policy stimuli. Looking ahead, the importance of domestic demand is expected to rise amid external demand disturbances, with consumption policies likely to be further enhanced to boost demand recovery [5][6] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.47% this week, with notable stock performances from Anji Food (+50.00%), Gui Faxiang (+14.58%), and Zuming Shares (+12.00%). The report emphasizes the resilience of essential consumer goods, predicting a sustained increase in attention towards these products due to improving consumer confidence and income [5][11] Summary by Sections Alcohol Industry - The high-end liquor segment remains strong, with recommendations for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. The next tier of liquor, represented by Shanxi Fenjiu, is also recommended as it continues to expand nationally. For real estate liquor, companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jiansiyuan are highlighted [5][6] - Kweichow Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue of 170.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The company aims for a revenue growth of around 9% in 2025 [6][33] - Wuliangye's revenue for Q3 2024 is expected to be 173 billion yuan, with a net profit of 59 billion yuan, reflecting a stable shareholder return strategy [6][33] Food Industry - The food index saw a rise of 1.47% this week, with significant gains in essential consumer goods. The report suggests that the demand for essential goods will continue to grow, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving household income [5][11] - Anji Food reported a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.84%. The company is positioned well in the frozen food market, despite facing some pressure from the macroeconomic environment [8][33] - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 125.58 billion yuan, a 45.34% increase year-on-year, indicating strong growth in the functional beverage sector [8][33] Key Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai is recruiting operators for its products on major platforms, aiming to expand its market presence [16] - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 11.1 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in oil prices due to easing U.S. tariff policies and tightening supply expectations. It emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. The report also recommends paying attention to domestic demand and opportunities in new material substitutions, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming season [13][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views - The report suggests maintaining a focus on leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, while also monitoring domestic demand and new material substitution opportunities [13][15]. - Recommended companies include: - Huangma Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, showing signs of recovery from previous macro demand pressures [13]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd.: A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [14]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd.: A leader in differentiated formulations in the plant growth regulator sector [14]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Benefiting from recovering core product prices and declining coal prices, leading to improved price differentials [14]. 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of April 16, Brent oil prices increased by 4.9% to $67.96 per barrel. Despite the IEA lowering oil demand growth forecasts, market concerns over U.S. tariff policies eased, contributing to the price increase [15]. - The report monitors 188 chemical products, with the top three price increases being: - Trichloroethylene: Up 16.3% - Butane: Up 8.9% - WTI: Up 7.7% - The top three price decreases were: - Liquid chlorine: Down 62.3% - D4: Down 17.8% - Anthracene oil: Down 12.4% [16][17]. 3. Price Spread Information - The top three price spread increases for the week were: - Carbon black spread: Up 64.5% - Calcium carbide PVC spread: Up 57.8% - Monoammonium phosphate: Up 14.5% - The top three price spread decreases were: - Butyl acrylate spread: Down 50.7% - Hydrogen peroxide spread: Down 44.4% - MTP spread: Down 30.2% [19][20].

月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房、车销售走弱，服务消费表现分化。 ①房地产、汽车销售均回落，家电销售均价下行。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房销量增速也有回落，3月 70城新房、二手房价格各线城市同比降幅继续收窄。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速由升转降，批发有所回升， 家电价格下行。 ②随着天气转暖，室外游玩需求增多，本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流量双双转升。不过，电影市场 表现仍旧惨淡，上周电影票房位于历年同期低位，同时上周酒店入住率和可售房间均价双双下行，均不及去年 同期。 外需： 出口数量下行，美计划对中国船舶加征港口费。 核 心 内 容 ①4月关税影响或初步显现，集装箱吞吐量和离港船只载重等出口数量指标有所下行，但考虑到关税政策朝令 夕改，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢出口需求。 ②美计划对所有停靠在美的中国制造船舶根据所载货物量收取费用，具体行动将分半年后和三年后两个阶段执 行。 生产： 制造业或延续"抢出口"，传统基建恢复仍缓。 ①本周制造业用工量价双双季节性回升，但同比超过去年同期，或反映出制造企业"抢出口"趋势仍在延续。 ②本周螺纹钢产量增速转降，库存低位续降，价格继续 ...

生产： 制造业或延续"抢出口"，传统基建恢复仍缓。 ①本周制造业用工量价双双季节性回升，但同比超过去年同期，或反映出制造企业"抢出口"趋势仍在延续。 核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房、车销售走弱，服务消费表现分化。 ①房地产、汽车销售均回落，家电销售均价下行。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房销量增速也有回落，3月 70城新房、二手房价格各线城市同比降幅继续收窄。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速由升转降，批发有所回升， 家电价格下行。 ②随着天气转暖，室外游玩需求增多，本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流量双双转升。不过，电影市场 表现仍旧惨淡，上周电影票房位于历年同期低位，同时上周酒店入住率和可售房间均价双双下行，均不及去年 同期。 外需： 出口数量下行，美计划对中国船舶加征港口费。 ①4月关税影响或初步显现，集装箱吞吐量和离港船只载重等出口数量指标有所下行，但考虑到关税政策朝令 夕改，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢出口需求。 ②美计划对所有停靠在美的中国制造船舶根据所载货物量收取费用，具体行动将分半年后和三年后两个阶段执 行。 ②本周螺纹钢产量增速转降，库存低位续降，价格继续 ...

一是结构上产需同步向好。 一季度，外需增速高于生产和内需。"抢出口"效应下以人民币计价的出口同比增 速达6.9%。内需提振政策效果延续，社零和投资分别增长4.6%、4.2%。其中，基建（11.5%）和制造业投资 （9.1%）保持高增，房地产投资（-9.9%）拖累减弱。生产端工业增加值增长6.5%，增速为2022年以来的次高 值。值得注意的是，供给强于需求的格局仍在继续，一季度产能利用率（74.1%）和产销率（94.6%）均略超 季节性回落。 图1：3月内外需求增速均有提升 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 图2：消费提振，投资分化 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 二是节奏上前稳后高。 3月多数经济数据增速较1-2月改善。生产加快修复，3月规模以上工业增加值同比增速 上行1.8pct至7.7%。需求端以基建投资好转最为显著，3月增速大幅提升2.6pct至12.6%。社零增速表现亮眼，3 月增速提升1.9cpt至5.9%，达到2020年以来的最高值【注释1】。制造业投资增速微升，房地产投资增速微 降。 图3：房地产销售降幅略有收窄，投资降幅再度扩张 一、总览：供需两旺 一季度我国经济开局良好，实际GDP同比 ...