Group 1 - The U.S. military is deploying additional forces to the Middle East, including thousands of Marines and Navy personnel [1][2] - The "Puncher" amphibious assault ship and its Marine expeditionary unit will depart approximately three weeks earlier than planned from the U.S. West Coast to the Middle East [1] - The deployment includes three additional warships and around 2,500 Marines [2] Group 2 - U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, particularly in storage chip stocks, with AMD dropping 28% [3] - Chinese concept stocks also saw a sharp decline, while gold prices fell below $4,560 and silver dropped by 5% [3] - Brent crude oil surged nearly 50% over three weeks, leading global asset classes [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation continues to escalate, affecting the supply of energy products. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices will remain strong but volatile. The polyolefin market is driven by strong cost support and a substantial contraction in supply, maintaining a relatively strong and upward - trending pattern. The pulp market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with low - level fluctuations. The soda ash market is under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. The glass market is in a dilemma, with high inventory and potential production capacity release suppressing the upside, while losses and cold - repair expectations provide some support [7][53][87][126][145] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures have different price trends. The Middle East situation affects supply, and the IEA's joint release of reserves and the US's relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela can relieve some supply tensions. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices are strong but volatile, and a bullish call spread can be considered [7][8] - **Fundamental Changes**: The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and Middle Eastern countries are forced to cut production. The US takes measures to relieve supply tensions. High - frequency data shows changes in US crude oil and refined product inventories. The EIA has adjusted its supply - demand expectations and raised the average price forecast for Brent in the second quarter of 2026 [9][10][11] Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Geopolitical conflicts lead to cost - push price increases. PX and PTA enterprises may cut production, and the polyester downstream has increased demand but poor sales. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease, and the market price is expected to be strong [28][29] - **Main Driving Forces**: The downstream consumption of polyester is weak, and the support for PTA and ethylene glycol is limited. PX prices may rise steadily, and PTA production is expected to increase. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be strong due to supply and cost factors [30][32][34] Polyolefins - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures and spot prices of polyolefins have different trends. The market is affected by the Middle East situation, with strong cost support and supply contraction, but weak demand. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways trend in the short term [42][53][54] - **Fundamental Changes**: The production of polypropylene and polyethylene has different changes, with some devices restarting and some under maintenance. The production profit of different raw materials varies. The inventory of polyolefins is high, and the downstream start - up level is different [55][56][67] Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp futures price has declined. The macro - environment and fundamentals affect the market, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and low - level fluctuations [86][87] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, inventory, and downstream market conditions show different trends, with overall supply exceeding demand [88][93][103] Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The soda ash futures price shows a downward trend. In the short term, the price may fluctuate greatly, and in the long term, it is under downward pressure. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance [126][128] - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, with high production and inventory. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure remains. The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [130][135][142] Glass - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The glass futures price continues to decline. The price is in a dilemma, with high inventory suppressing the upside and losses providing some support. It is necessary to pay attention to real - estate sales data [145][146] - **Glass Market Situation**: The glass supply is at a low level, with reduced production and capacity utilization. The inventory shows a contraction trend but remains high. The spot price is stable with a slight increase, affected by cost and supply factors. The import and export volume has different trends, and the upstream soda ash is in an oversupply situation. The downstream consumption is weak [148][151][155]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt market showed a strong trend, mainly due to stronger cost support and tighter raw materials. Geopolitical tensions led to the continuous interruption of the Strait of Hormuz, supporting oil prices, and the tight raw materials caused a decline in domestic refinery operating rates. As the risk of continuous interruption of the Strait of Hormuz rises, refineries face an increased risk of production cuts, strengthening the upward momentum of the market. In the future, the core influencing factor of asphalt remains geopolitics, while the impact of fundamentals is relatively limited. Although there is still an upward driving force for crude oil, measures such as the US restricting Israel's attacks on Iranian energy facilities, the IEA releasing crude oil reserves, and the US exempting sanctions on Russian crude oil and planning to lift sanctions on Iranian offshore crude oil will suppress the upward space of oil prices. As the war reaches a stalemate, the momentum of the pulsed rise in oil prices has weakened, and sudden events will dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The continuous interruption of the Strait of Hormuz, Israel's attack on Iranian energy facilities and Iran's counter - retaliation, and US President Trump's plan to send additional troops to the Middle East [7] - **Key Data**: As of March 18, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 21.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of March 20, the weekly asphalt production in China was 380,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 788,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 1.195 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week [7] - **Main Viewpoints**: The asphalt market is affected by geopolitics, with cost support and tight raw materials driving the market up. However, various measures are expected to suppress the rise of oil prices. The risk points are the conditional navigation of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of geopolitical tensions [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The continuous interruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the decline in supply [10] - **Bearish Factors**: The IEA's release of crude oil reserves [10] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - **War Stalemate and Escalation Risk**: After the initial conflict, the war has reached a stalemate. The US and Israel may attack Iran's energy sector, leading to Iran's counter - retaliation. The US is considering further attacks on the Iranian regime and has sent troops to the Middle East. The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz may last longer than expected [13] - **Continuous Interruption of the Strait of Hormuz**: Since the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has been essentially interrupted, with a significant reduction in shipping. International organizations are holding consultations, and ship navigation is still threatened. The US has temporarily stopped further attacks on Iranian energy facilities. The long - term interruption of the Strait of Hormuz will support oil prices in the short - term and improve the supply - demand pattern in the long - term [16] - **Joint Statements by Multiple Countries and Israel's Suspension of Airstrikes**: Multiple countries have issued a joint statement to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Israel will suspend subsequent airstrikes on energy facilities. The US may lift sanctions on Iranian offshore crude oil, which is expected to ease market concerns and inject liquidity into the crude oil spot market [19] - **The Fed Stays Put**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and Powell sent a hawkish signal, warning of stubborn inflation and the uncertainty of the inflation outlook [22] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of March 20, the weekly asphalt production was 380,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises as of March 18 was 21.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a shortage of raw materials and a decline in production and operating rates [23][31] - **Demand**: As of March 20, the weekly asphalt shipment was 234,000 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous statistical period and a year - on - year decrease of 122,000 tons. High prices have suppressed downstream demand, and the market is in the off - season. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt increased slightly, but is expected to remain low [34][37] - **Inventory**: As of March 20, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 788,000 tons, a slight increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 1.195 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The market is still in the off - season, and the social inventory continues to accumulate [44][51] - **Spread**: As of March 20, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 564 yuan/ton, a decrease of 329 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 19, the domestic asphalt basis was - 225 yuan/ton. As of March 18, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 44.42. The cracking spread decreased, the dilution asphalt processing profit weakened, and the basis became weaker [60] 3.5 Future Outlook - The core influencing factor of asphalt remains geopolitics. Although there is an upward driving force for crude oil, various measures will suppress the upward space of oil prices. As the war reaches a stalemate, the momentum of the pulsed rise in oil prices has weakened, and sudden events will dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the evolution of geopolitics. The risk points are the conditional navigation of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of geopolitical tensions [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the approaching Ramadan, the Malaysian palm oil market was closed. Before the closure, its performance was relatively strong, but the surrounding vegetable oils weakened. The domestic soybean oil market will face a shutdown wave at the end of the month, which provides some support to the futures market. However, it is currently the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation has more negative impacts than the support from the shutdown. The palm oil market may face pressure to decline due to the slowdown in exports and the potential increase in production after Ramadan. The rapeseed oil market is still at risk of a pull - back and will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation, maintaining a wide - range volatile adjustment. It is recommended to exit long positions and hold short positions [2][3]. - For the double - meal sector, the external soybean market may face a new decline risk if it cannot effectively break through the 20 - day moving average. The decline of the domestic soybean meal futures is limited due to the shutdown wave at the end of the month and the strong spot market. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain in the range of 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal market has light trading volume as the aquaculture season has not arrived. It is recommended to exit long positions at low levels and try short positions with a small amount [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil 3.1.1 Market Performance - On March 19, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, international crude oil prices rose sharply, but the vegetable oil market did not follow significantly. The vegetable oil sector showed a narrow - range oscillation. The closing prices and changes of main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are as follows: - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 8616 yuan/ton, up 0.89% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 19737 lots; the secondary contract Y2609 closed at 8530 yuan/ton, down 0.92% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 7975 lots [2]. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 9796 yuan/ton, up 1.07% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1763 lots; the secondary contract P2609 closed at 9706 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 4735 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 9854 yuan/ton, up 0.76% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 5030 lots; the secondary contract OI2609 closed at 9708 yuan/ton, up 0.72% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2362 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On March 19, NYMEX crude oil futures fell, with the main US oil contract down 0.19% to $96.14/barrel, and the main Brent oil contract up 1.18% to $108.65/barrel. Israel said it would suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [2]. - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate. Production may decline in the short term due to plantation workers returning home for Ramadan but is expected to recover after the holiday [2]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggested that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. The Brazilian energy minister called for more tests before increasing the mandatory biodiesel mixing ratio [2]. - On March 19, the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that the La Nina phenomenon is still ongoing, is expected to turn into an ENSO - neutral state next month, and is likely to remain neutral from May to July 2026. An El Nino phenomenon may form from June to August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [2]. - The Malaysian MPOB report shows that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons compared with the previous month, production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons. Market expectations were 2.63 million tons for inventory, 1.3 million tons for production, and 1.18 million tons for exports [2]. - The shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 443,812 tons, a 12.7% increase from 393,853 tons in the same period of February. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, a 1700 - ton increase from the previous month [2][3]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0557 million tons, a weekly increase of 9400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.49%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 990,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.35%; edible palm oil inventory was 760,900 tons, a weekly increase of 16,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, and a year - on - year increase of 94.21%; rapeseed oil inventory was 304,000 tons, a weekly increase of 13,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.54%, and a year - on - year decrease of 64.42% [3]. - As of March 19, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the basis was 244 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9870 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was 74 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 94 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 388.13 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,410 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 130 yuan/ton, and the basis was 556 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56 yuan/ton [3]. - As of March 19, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.83 [3]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the global financial market fluctuated overnight, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and precious metals falling sharply, triggering a liquidity crisis and a strong global recession expectation. The US soybean oil was under pressure at a high level. Domestically, some soybean oil factories have shut down, and the market is concerned about the shutdown wave at the end of the month, which provides some support to the futures market. However, it is the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation has more negative impacts. The palm oil market may face pressure due to the slowdown in exports and the potential increase in production after Ramadan. The rapeseed oil market is still at risk of a pull - back and will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation [2][3]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, exit long positions in oils and increase short positions. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - Y2605: Pressure level 9300, support level 8048. - Y2609: Pressure level 9700, support level 8054. - P2605: Pressure level 12000, support level 8776. - P2609: Pressure level 12000, support level 8710. - OI2605: Pressure level 12000, support level 9212. - OI2609: Pressure level 12000, support level 9180 [3]. 3.2 Double - Meal 3.2.1 Market Performance - On March 19, domestic double - meal futures opened and closed lower, with rapeseed meal falling more than soybean meal. The closing prices and changes of main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, up 0.20% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 26,514 lots; the secondary contract M2609 closed at 3009 yuan/ton, up 0.17% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 14,892 lots [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2443 yuan/ton, with no change day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 13,533 lots; the secondary contract RM2609 closed at 2438 yuan/ton, up 0.45% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 4094 lots [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The forecast of the NOPA monthly soybean crushing report shows that the average prediction of 9 analysts is that the NOPA member companies' soybean crushing volume in February may reach a record high for that month, with an average of 202.725 million bushels [3][4]. - Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has intensified. The soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. Although the current export volume is relatively limited, if the conflict persists, shipping and insurance costs may increase, posing a potential threat to the export prospects [4]. - Chinese and US economic officials held a "very stable" talk on agricultural trade in Paris on the 15th. China still promises to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [4]. - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.09 million tons, a 2% increase from 15.73 million tons in March 2025 [4]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.8215 million tons, a decrease of 284,700 tons from the previous week. The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 18.71%; the contract volume was 4.8823 million tons, a decrease of 351,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.72%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 181,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal for crushing was 20,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 33.33%; the contract volume was 76,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 65.22% [4]. - As of March 19, the spot price of soybean meal was 3399 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 49,000 tons. The basis of soybean meal was 3381 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 131,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 318 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2670 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, and the trading volume was 0 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal was 2501 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 27 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month [4]. - The crushing profit of US soybeans in April was - 342 yuan/ton for the futures market and - 42 yuan/ton for the spot market; the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in April was 188 yuan/ton for the futures market and 488 yuan/ton for the spot market [4]. - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans in April at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4139 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans was 3777 yuan/ton. The CNF quotes of US Gulf soybeans in April were $523/ton, and those of Brazilian soybeans were $476/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian rapeseed in April was $570/ton, and the arrival cost of rapeseed at Guangzhou Port in April was 5167 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, if the US soybean market cannot effectively break through the 20 - day moving average, it may face a new decline risk. Domestically, although the import cost of soybean meal has slightly decreased, the decline of the futures market is limited due to the shutdown wave at the end of the month and the strong spot market. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain in the range of 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal market has light trading volume as the aquaculture season has not arrived [3][4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Exit existing long positions and try short positions with a small amount. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - M2605: Pressure level 3278, support level 2710. - M2607: Pressure level 3000, support level 2680. - M2609: Pressure level 3200, support level 2833. - RM2605: Pressure level 2600, support level 2220. - RM2607: Pressure level 2560, support level 2200. - RM2609: Pressure level 2600, support level 2274 [4].

△曼德海峡（资料图） 据俄罗斯方面20日消息，也门胡塞武装政治局成员穆罕默德·布海提说，为支持伊朗，该组织 可能封锁曼德海峡。 曼德海峡是连接红海和亚丁湾的海峡，是沟通大西洋、地中海和印度洋的"咽喉"，被称为连接 欧亚非三大洲的"水上走廊"。 来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨曾静娇 特朗普将对伊行动比作珍珠港，还称没人比日本更懂"偷袭" 美军或夺岛以迫使伊朗开放霍尔木兹海峡 金饰克价两天跌约100元 SFC 21君荐读 更多精彩 扫码点击 21 SFC 悦 读 · 智 能 权 威 ● D n7 布海提表示，也门胡塞武装正考虑所有可能选项，以支持伊朗抵抗美国和以色列的军事打击。 如果不得不关闭曼德海峡，也门胡塞武装只攻击那些参与袭击伊朗、伊拉克、黎巴嫩和巴勒斯 坦的国家的船只。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices (London gold) fell by - 3.39% to $4650.503 per ounce; domestic gold (9999 on the Gold Exchange) fell by - 3.58% to 1061, and the Shanghai Gold main contract fell by - 3.32% to 1062 yuan per gram. International silver prices fell by 3.56% to $72.778 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: Global central banks' hawkish stances due to inflation pressure from the Middle - East conflict, US approval of Russian oil sales, and Trump's call for Powell to cut interest rates. There were small outflows from domestic gold ETFs, and changes in various gold and silver inventories [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Consider re - laying out long positions in gold; partially close out short positions in silver [1] Base Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The main electrolytic aluminum contract closed at 24180 yuan per ton, down - 2.50% from the previous trading day, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 105 yuan per ton, and the LME price at 3340 dollars per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product operating rate [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to fluctuate weakly, and suggest waiting and seeing [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The main alumina contract closed at 3027 yuan per ton, down - 0.69% from the previous trading day, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 344 yuan per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Stable increase in alumina operating capacity and high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to Guinea's bauxite policy [2] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8285 yuan per ton, down 90 yuan or - 1.07% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 6591 lots to 253549 lots (+2.67%), a decrease in trading volume by 33633 lots to 172736 lots (-16.30%), an increase in funds in the variety by 0.78 billion to 31.95 billion, and 21669 lots of warehouse receipts (no change) [2][3] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in the number of furnaces in operation, expected increase in production in Sichuan due to lower electricity prices, slight inventory reduction, and expected increase in monthly production of polysilicon, stable production in the organic silicon industry, and rising aluminum alloy prices and operating rate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The market is affected by macro - events, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 8900 [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 142,600 yuan per ton, down 7520 yuan or - 5.0% [3] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, increase in weekly production of lithium carbonate, expected increase in March production, increase in production of downstream materials, and changes in inventory [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The market expects faster domestic lithium resource approval, but the price is expected to be under pressure [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 38550 yuan per ton, down 1555 yuan or - 3.88% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in open interest by 1612 lots to 32966 lots (-4.66%), an increase in trading volume by 4804 lots to 13502 lots (+55.23%), a decrease in funds in the variety by 2.26 billion to 17.99 billion, and 9910 lots of warehouse receipts (no change) [3] - **Fundamentals**: Slight increase in production and inventory, and changes in downstream product prices and production schedules [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price has dropped, and the market will test the production cost pressure level of leading factories [3] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3133 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in apparent demand and production, weak supply - demand in the short term, low profit for steel mills, and limited production increase space [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and close out short positions opportunistically. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 814.5 yuan per ton, up 9.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in pig iron production, decrease in inventory, neutral - weak supply - demand, and high inventory days [4][5] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1161 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in pig iron production, the first round of coke price cut, high inventory in some links, and high futures valuation [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and close out short positions opportunistically. The reference range for JM05 is 1140 - 1200 [5] Agricultural Products Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices showed mixed trends [6] - **Fundamentals**: Over 70% of grain sales completed, low inventory at ports and downstream, weakening spot prices in production areas [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5427 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. The basis between Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was 26 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar after processing and tax payment was 610 yuan per ton [6] - **Fundamentals**: Expectation of a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, increase in Guangxi's sugar production estimate, and macro - funds' long - position allocation [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [6] Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices fell, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuated weakly. Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated downwards [6] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in US cotton export sales, decrease in unpriced selling orders, increase in the operating rate of domestic textile enterprises [6][7] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a price range of 15000 - 15400 yuan per ton [7] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices rose slightly [7] - **Fundamentals**: Rainy weather affected storage, high egg - laying hen inventory, and low - season demand [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to weaken, and spot prices continued to fall, with the national average price below 10 yuan/kg [7] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in slaughter volume in March, high slaughter weight, and low - season demand [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be weak [7] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose significantly. The low - price spot in North China was 8400 yuan per ton, with a weak basis. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [8] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in domestic supply due to planned production cuts, and improvement in demand in the peak season [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [8] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5862, up 0.4% [8] - **Fundamentals**: Price increase due to rising oil prices, high inventory, and weak real - estate demand [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [8] Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1065, down 1.3% [8] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in supply, decrease in inventory, and weak real - estate demand [8][9] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9] PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract rose significantly. The spot price in East China was 9100 yuan per ton, with a weak basis. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [9] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in supply due to production cuts, and improvement in demand [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term and short at high prices in the medium - long term [9] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to the US - Iran conflict, with a significant increase [9] - **Fundamentals**: The conflict affected multiple Gulf countries, with a large potential reduction in oil exports. There was a decrease in Iranian oil exports [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Oil prices may continue to rise if the conflict persists, but may reverse if the situation eases [9] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract rose slightly. The spot price in East China was 10300 yuan per ton, with a general trading atmosphere. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [9][10] - **Fundamentals**: Improvement in the pure benzene supply - demand pattern, slight reduction in styrene inventory, and improvement in downstream demand [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term, and the supply - demand will weaken in the long term [10] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1217, down 0.8% [10] - **Fundamentals**: Supply recovery, decrease in inventory, and weak downstream demand [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is facing a significant turning point in 2026, with domestic coal supply expected to experience zero growth for the first time in a decade due to resource depletion and stricter regulations in major production areas like Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia [1][2] - High logistics costs in Xinjiang are raising the marginal cost of coal production to 700 RMB/ton [1] - International supply constraints combined with increasing demand are expected to shift the supply-demand balance from a surplus of 40 million tons in 2025 to a tight balance in 2026, with domestic coal prices projected to rise from under 700 RMB/ton to around 850 RMB/ton [1][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply Challenges**: The production capacity in major coal-producing regions is declining, with strict regulations leading to zero growth in planned production for 2026 compared to 2025 [2][3] - **Demand Dynamics**: Electricity demand for coal is expected to grow by at least 1% in 2026, with chemical coal demand also increasing due to large investments in coal chemical projects in Xinjiang [3] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to higher international coal prices, potentially pushing domestic prices above 1,000 RMB/ton if oil prices remain between 100-110 USD/barrel [1][6] - **Price Transmission Mechanism**: The relationship between oil and coal prices is indirect, primarily transmitted through natural gas prices, which are linked to oil prices [5] Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategies**: - Offensive strategies should focus on companies with high exposure to international markets and coking coal, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which benefits from international spot market prices [9][10] - Defensive strategies should prioritize companies with stable earnings and lower sensitivity to price fluctuations, such as China Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [10] - **Potential Policy Responses**: If domestic coal prices rise significantly, the government may implement supply guarantees, but challenges such as declining resource quality and transportation capacity in Xinjiang could limit effectiveness [7][8] Conclusion - The coal industry is entering a critical phase with potential price increases driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors. Investment strategies should be carefully considered based on market dynamics and company fundamentals.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the geopolitical implications of the U.S.-Iran conflict and its effects on U.S. domestic politics, particularly in relation to the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. The focus is on U.S. foreign policy, energy markets, and international relations, particularly with China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S.-Iran Conflict Dynamics** - The U.S. underestimated Iran's resilience and asymmetric retaliation capabilities, leading to a stalemate in the conflict. This has resulted in significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting 20% of global oil supply [1][2][3]. 2. **Oil Price Surge** - Oil prices have surpassed $100 per barrel, with potential risks of rising to $150 or even $200 if the conflict continues, which could severely impact global GDP [4][5]. 3. **U.S. Domestic Political Implications** - High inflation and rising oil prices are detrimental to the Republican Party's prospects in the 2026 midterm elections, with polls indicating a strong chance for the Democratic Party to gain control of both houses of Congress [6][7][8]. 4. **U.S.-China Relations** - The U.S. is seeking to stabilize energy markets and increase agricultural exports to China, with plans for a significant trade deal. However, the negotiations face challenges due to China's strong bargaining position [9][10]. 5. **Potential Scenarios for U.S. Actions** - Three scenarios are outlined regarding U.S. actions in the conflict: escalation through ground troops (10% probability), a negotiated settlement (50% probability), and a prolonged stalemate (30-50% probability) [17]. 6. **Impact of International Relations** - The conflict has broader implications for U.S. alliances, with allies like South Korea and Japan expressing concerns over U.S. military reliability. The situation is further complicated by Israel's aggressive stance towards Iran [6][7][8]. 7. **Future of U.S. Military Engagement** - The likelihood of large-scale ground troop deployment is low, with the U.S. preferring airstrikes and special operations. The current military strategy may lead to a prolonged conflict without a clear resolution [13][16]. 8. **Iran's Economic Resilience** - Iran's economy has shown resilience despite sanctions, and its leadership is prepared for a prolonged conflict, which could complicate U.S. efforts to achieve a quick resolution [11][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Public Sentiment and Polling Data** - Recent polls show a significant shift in independent voters towards the Democratic Party, with a notable decline in support for the Trump administration's handling of the economy and the Iran conflict [8]. 2. **Geopolitical Ramifications** - The U.S. may consider actions in Cuba as a means to regain political capital if the situation in Iran deteriorates, reflecting a strategic pivot in U.S. foreign policy [15][18]. 3. **Challenges in Negotiation** - Any potential negotiations with Iran are likely to be complicated by Iran's demands for guarantees against future attacks, which the U.S. may find difficult to meet [18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the intricate interplay between geopolitical events, domestic political ramifications, and international relations.

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