Core Viewpoint - The primary risk to Poland's bond yields is geopolitical in nature, with potential for increased foreign investor participation in domestic debt [1] Group 1 - Poland's debt management authority is considering issuing bonds in Japanese yen and Swiss francs [1] - The foreign exchange issuance activity in Poland is expected to slow down in the second half of the year [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term range - bound oscillation for oil prices and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] 2. Core View - The current market focuses on the progress of reciprocal tariff negotiations and whether the US, Iran, and Russia will intensify sanctions. The US has increased sanctions on Iran, indicating no significant progress in US - Iran negotiations. Some US lawmakers are considering higher tariffs on countries importing Russian oil. Geopolitical factors remain the biggest black swan in the future oil market [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5 cents to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose 4 cents to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase. The main contract of SC crude oil closed up 0.85% at 520 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending July 7, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 20.685 million barrels, an increase of 152,900 barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory increased by 637,000 barrels to 8.124 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreased by 416,000 barrels to 2.306 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.308 million barrels to 10.255 million barrels [1] - The US Treasury Department announced additional sanctions on Iran [1] - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the Brazilian real's decline widened by 1.6% [1] - For the week ending July 4 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 464,000 barrels (previous value: - 1.493 million barrels), EIA crude oil inventory was 7.07 million barrels (expected: - 2.071 million barrels, previous value: 3.845 million barrels), and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 238,000 barrels (previous value: 239,000 barrels) [1] - According to the EIA report, for the week of July 4, US crude oil exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels, a 1.69% increase. The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.564 million barrels per day, a 1.61% decrease from the same period last year. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. Commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.013 million barrels per day, a decrease of 906,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The increase in EIA crude oil inventory was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025, the decrease in gasoline inventory was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025, and the decrease in domestic crude oil production was the largest since the week ending May 2, 2025 [1] Investment Logic - The market is concerned about tariff negotiations and potential sanctions. The US's increased sanctions on Iran and the consideration of tariffs on countries importing Russian oil show that geopolitical factors are the major uncertainty in the oil market [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will oscillate within a range; Medium - term: Short - position allocation [3] Risk - Downside risks: The US lifts sanctions on Iranian oil, and macro black - swan events occur - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]

Group 1 - The Iranian Oil Minister criticized the chaos in the oil market caused by war, particularly referencing the recent 12-day conflict with Israel that led to a spike in crude oil prices [1] - Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC and will assume the presidency of the organization for one year starting in 2025 [1] - In May, Iran's average daily oil production was reported at 3.3 million barrels, with supply security being a significant concern during the recent military tensions with Israel [1] Group 2 - A ceasefire mediated by Washington was agreed upon by Iran and Israel starting June 24, which provided some relief to oil prices, although concerns about long-term demand and increased production from some OPEC countries led to a price decline [2] - Geopolitical issues, particularly regarding Iran, are viewed as a significant risk factor in the oil market, with ongoing concerns about Iran's nuclear program and its implications for regional stability [2][3] - The U.S. has recently intensified sanctions against Iran, severely impacting its oil exports, which are now primarily conducted through "shadow fleets" that avoid conventional GPS tracking [3]

Report's Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI remaining stable in June at 49.5%. The basis shows a premium for the spot over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral with an increase in copper inventory on July 9 and an increase in SHFE copper inventory from last week. The price is above the 20 - day moving average with the average trending upwards, which is bullish. However, the main positions are net short and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish. The market is expected to be volatile due to factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, high - level inventory destocking, US trade tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical disturbances, including a 50% US copper tariff increase [2]. - The recent analysis of bullish and bearish factors involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Summary by Relevant Directory Daily View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the price trend on the disk is bullish; the main positions are bearish; and the market is expected to be volatile [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish and bearish factors involve domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Spot - The report provides information on the location, mid - price, price change, inventory type, total quantity, and increase or decrease of copper spots, but specific data is not fully presented [6]. Exchange Inventory - On July 9, copper inventory increased by 4625 tons to 107125 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 3039 tons from last week to 84589 tons [2]. Bonded Area Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market is slightly in surplus in 2024 and in a tight balance in 2025. The report also provides a China annual supply - demand balance table for copper from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the recent extension of tariffs and the potential for a trade agreement [1][6][11] - It emphasizes the historical context of US-China relations, noting significant changes since the Nixon-Kissinger era, particularly China's rise as a competitive economic power [2][27] - The article mentions the impact of tariffs, with the US imposing up to 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and China retaliating with 125% tariffs, leading to a significant economic decoupling [5][6] Group 2 - The dialogue between the US and China is framed as essential for coexistence, with both nations needing to engage in discussions to resolve trade conflicts [4][10] - The potential for a new trade agreement is discussed, with the expectation that it should be detailed and long-lasting, ideally lasting several years [8][9][10] - The article also touches on the geopolitical implications of the trade relationship, including concerns over military and technological competition [28][27] Group 3 - The article reflects on the broader implications of US foreign policy under Trump, particularly regarding transatlantic relations and the perception of Europe [20][22] - It suggests that Trump's approach has damaged the US's image in Europe and that rebuilding trust will take time and effort [22][23] - The discussion includes the need for a multilateral approach to global order, indicating that a new world order cannot be established solely by the US and China [12][24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the challenges and opportunities in the gold market for 2025, highlighting the need for investors to be vigilant and strategic in their approach to shorting gold [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates is a significant factor impacting gold prices, as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [1] - The yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) surpassing 2% is a critical psychological threshold that further diminishes gold's appeal [1] - Emerging market central banks are experiencing a slowdown in gold reserve accumulation, indicating a structural shift in global gold demand [1] - The rise of digital gold products, such as Bitcoin ETFs, is siphoning funds away from traditional gold markets, creating a competitive dynamic [1] - A calming geopolitical landscape, including the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and stabilization in the Middle East, is reducing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - For investors looking to short gold, a multi-dimensional analytical framework is essential, considering global economic recovery, central bank monetary policy, and geopolitical developments [2] - The optimal timing for shorting gold may align with strong economic growth, tightening monetary policy, and a more stable international situation [2] - The volatility of gold prices necessitates a robust risk management system, including dynamic stop-loss points, controlled position sizes, and diversified asset allocation [2]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than market expectations, cooling the expectation of an interest rate cut this year. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act restricts the 45Z tax credit to North - American sourced raw materials, and the EPA's proposed policy boosts the use of vegetable oil in biodiesel, expanding US soybean oil demand. Brazil raised the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% in June 2025. Indonesia's B40 policy is partially completed, and it plans to implement the B50 plan in early 2026. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, supply - demand is expected to tighten [3][42]. - India's palm oil imports in June reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase. China's cumulative palm oil imports from January to May were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average of 1.17 million tons. With the arrival of ships from May - June, inventory increased, but there are fewer purchases after July. US soybean crop ratings are good, domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and rapeseed oil is at a high level and in a slow destocking phase [3][42]. - The US June non - farm data exceeded expectations, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Trade policy uncertainty may exacerbate market volatility. Although Israel and Iran signed a cease - fire agreement, geopolitical risks still exist and may impact oil prices. In the third quarter, during the production - increasing season, the supply - demand double - increase pattern may limit the upside, with overall oscillatory operation. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, combined with the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the implementation of biodiesel support policies in relevant countries, the price center may rise [3][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - In the first half of 2025, palm oil prices shifted from a decline to an oscillatory range, with the overall price center moving down. From January to February, prices first declined due to the non - implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy and high - price suppression of demand, then rose due to post - Spring Festival restocking and India's Ramadan备货 demand. In March, prices oscillated, influenced by both negative and positive factors. In April, US tariff policies and concerns about the economy, along with the entry of the production - increasing season, dragged down prices. From May to June, there was no obvious driving factor, and the market fluctuated. From mid - June, prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and the US biodiesel policy, then retreated and entered an oscillatory phase [8][9]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 69,000 tons; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase. Reuters' survey predicted that in June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory would be 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from May; production would be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease; and exports would be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase [14]. 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In June 2025, according to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.65%. MPOA estimated a 4.69% decrease in production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease in production by the end of June. Different institutions' data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased compared to May [17][18]. 3.2.3. Indonesia's Situation - In April 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.9 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory was 3.05 million tons [23]. 3.2.4. India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In May 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase. Palm oil imports were 590,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. In June, palm oil imports reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase [26][28]. 3.2.5. China's Oils and Fats Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average. Cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.025 million tons, and cumulative sunflower oil imports were 228,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils were 1.983 million tons [35][37]. 3.2.6. Domestic Oils and Fats Inventory - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.22 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. Soybean oil inventory was 955,200 tons, palm oil inventory was 537,400 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 727,400 tons [39]. 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The report reiterates the factors mentioned in the core viewpoints, including the US economic situation, biodiesel policies in different countries, production and inventory changes in Malaysia and Indonesia, and import situations in India and China. It points out that in the third quarter, the market may oscillate, and in the fourth quarter, the price center may rise [42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 8th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodity futures rose, with SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rising by 7% [2][10][13] - The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), poly - silicon, and silicon metal, while the top three decliners were egg, ethenylbenzene, and rapeseed meal [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On July 8th, equity index futures increased, CGB futures decreased. Among commodity futures, there were more gainers. SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rose 7%. The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe) (7.2% increase, 1.6% month - on - month open interest increase), poly - silicon (7.0% increase, 5.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and silicon metal (2.8% increase, 0.6% month - on - month open interest increase). The top three decliners were egg (1.3% decrease, 4.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), ethenylbenzene (1.1% decrease, 0.9% month - on - month open interest decrease), and rapeseed meal (0.9% decrease, 0.4% month - on - month open interest increase) [10][11][13] 3.1.2 Daily Rise 3.1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On July 8th, silicon metal rose 2.8% to 8215 yuan/ton. The fundamental surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the price rebound was driven by policy expectations. Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment was strong, but adjustment risks due to sentiment cooling should be guarded against. Northwest factories' sudden production cuts strengthened price support. If the production - cut scope expanded, July's supply - demand situation might improve marginally; otherwise, the oversupply pressure would be hard to ease. In the southwest, the resumption of production was slower than in previous years, but some factories had restarted. As prices rose, enterprises' willingness to resume production and hedge increased, which might exacerbate supply - side pressure. Demand was weak, and inventory might accumulate again [17][18][20] 3.1.2.2 Aluminium Oxide - On July 8th, aluminium oxide rose 2.8% to 3110 yuan/ton. There was no short - to - medium - term shortage of bauxite, and operating capacity and inventory were gradually recovering. Market sentiment was volatile, with more spot inquiries but a strong wait - and - see atmosphere in transactions. Warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and there were concerns in the futures market. The long - term logic focused on bauxite prices. Short - term sentiment was volatile, so it was advisable to wait and see in the short term. If market sentiment faded in the medium - to - long term, one could cautiously short far - month contracts [21][23] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Ethenylbenzene - On July 8th, ethenylbenzene fell 1.1% to 7276 yuan/ton. In a period without clear driving factors, it fluctuated in a narrow range. Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, crude oil prices fell, and market bullish sentiment weakened. The spot supply - demand weakened, and port inventories increased, but the end - of - month short - squeeze sentiment was strong. Fundamentally, supply returned, demand weakened, and the market was moving towards inventory accumulation. The fundamentals of pure benzene improved marginally. Two points should be noted: the low inventory level of the ethenylbenzene industry chain and the better fundamentals of pure benzene from July to August [26][27][29] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 7th local time that she expected to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues between China and the U.S., and the two sides would discuss expanding cooperation [34] - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will pay an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Premier Li Qiang [34] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect, including expanding the scope of participating institutions in Southbound Trading Connect and optimizing the offshore RMB bond repo business [35] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has been cooperating with mainland regulatory authorities to promote the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the trading scale of RMB - denominated Hong Kong stocks is expected to rise [35]