Group 1 - US stock markets saw collective gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.91%, Nasdaq up 0.06%, and S&P 500 up 0.35% [1] - Chinese concept stocks experienced mixed performance, with Kaixin Auto rising over 3% and Futu Holdings up over 2%, while Fangdd, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, NIO, Weibo, and iQIYI all saw declines of over 2% to 5% [1] Group 2 - The US non-farm payroll report for September was not released as scheduled due to the government shutdown, affecting the announcement of employment changes and unemployment rates [2] - The US government shutdown entered its third day, with ongoing negotiations in Congress regarding temporary funding measures, and President Trump considering significant federal job cuts [3] Group 3 - International oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI crude nearing $60, marking a four-month low, influenced by the US government shutdown and potential production increases from OPEC+ [4] - Geopolitical factors, particularly the supply security from Russia and Iran, may lead to significant short-term volatility in oil prices [4] Group 4 - Japanese stock markets surged significantly, driven by comments from the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, emphasizing the need to maintain a loose monetary environment to support the economy [5] - Kuroda noted various uncertainties in Japan's economic outlook, particularly the potential impact of US economic and monetary policy on Japan's economy and prices [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. government officially shut down on October 2, marking the first closure in seven years, adding uncertainty to the U.S. economy and financial markets, and potentially reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [1] - Analysts suggest that if the government shutdown persists for several days, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his team may lean towards adopting a more accommodative monetary policy due to the dual challenges of a weak labor market and high inflation [1] - The delay in the release of key employment data, originally scheduled for Friday, will significantly complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to formulate monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Bank of America analyzed that if the government shutdown continues until the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on October 28-29, decision-makers may support a rate cut based on two main reasons [2] - The first reason is that only a strong September employment report would allow the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in October; without this data, Chairman Powell may favor a "risk management" rate cut [2] - The market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted, with the probability of a rate cut in October now at 100%, and the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut at 99% [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has increased uncertainty for the U.S. economy and financial markets, potentially reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October [1] - Analysts suggest that if the government shutdown lasts for several days, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues may lean towards adopting a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - The ongoing labor market weakness and high inflation present a challenging situation for the Federal Reserve, and a prolonged shutdown could hinder the release of key employment data [1] Group 2 - A solid September employment report is necessary for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current stance; without it, there may be a push for a 'risk management' rate cut [2] - The potential for permanent job cuts in federal positions, as hinted by President Trump, adds further uncertainty to an already weak labor market [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October has risen to 100%, with a 99% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and an 88% chance of another cut in December [2]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is reducing its monthly purchases of 10 to 25-year government bonds from 405 billion yen (approximately 2.3 billion USD) to 345 billion yen (approximately 2.3 billion USD) for the next quarter, while maintaining the purchase of bonds over 25 years at 150 billion yen [1][5] - The total monthly purchase of all maturities will decrease from 3.705 trillion yen to 3.3 trillion yen, indicating a gradual shift away from loose monetary policy [5] - The losses on long-term Japanese government bonds have been significant, with a decline of 9% this year, which is more than double the losses of bonds with shorter maturities [2][5] Group 2 - The reduction in bond purchases is seen as a slight negative factor for the bond market, as indicated by the comments from a senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management [2] - The decision to keep the purchase volume of bonds over 25 years unchanged is viewed positively, as it signals the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to avoid instability in the ultra-long-term bond market [6] - Market participants are increasingly expecting another interest rate hike in October, reflecting the Bank of Japan's gradual tightening stance [5]

Group 1 - The approval of Moer’s IPO is expected to reverse negative sentiment and lead to a recovery in the market, particularly benefiting the consecutive board stocks that have faced significant negative feedback recently [1] - Breakthroughs in domestic chip technology and reductions in semiconductor import plans are likely to boost the domestic semiconductor sector, presenting an opportunity for investment in this area [1] - The implementation of export license management for pure electric passenger vehicles in 2026 is seen as a positive development for leading new energy vehicle companies, with expectations for strong performance from major players like BYD [2] Group 2 - The upcoming cultural tourism consumption month, featuring 29,000 events and 4.8 trillion yuan in subsidies, is anticipated to support the recovery of the tourism and consumer sectors, particularly benefiting companies like Caesar [2] - Increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October may provide opportunities for small investors, especially in the precious metals sector, during the upcoming holiday period [3] - The recent statements from the central bank indicate a supportive stance towards market stability and potential monetary easing, which may lead to a positive market response despite some mixed signals [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the interest rate cut in the September FOMC meeting, the monetary policy statements of key Fed figures remain dovish. It is recommended to buy on dips for precious metals. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 843 - 870 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9799 - 11000 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.25% to 858.12 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.72% to 10575.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.27% to 3781.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.31% to 45.26 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.44 [2] - The recently released US economic data exceeded market expectations, easing the market's recession expectations for the overseas economy. However, expectations for loose monetary policy still remain significant due to the statements of Fed officials. The performance of silver prices is significantly stronger than that of gold [2] - The month - on - month value of US durable goods orders in August was 2.9%, significantly higher than the expected - 0.5% and the previous value of - 2.7%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 was 218,000, better than the expected 235,000 and the previous value of 232,000. The revised quarter - on - quarter annualized value of the US real GDP in the second quarter was 3.8%, significantly higher than the expected and previous value of 3.3% [2] Fed Officials' Statements - Fed Chairman Powell said that the current stance of the Fed's interest rate is still slightly tight. He also mentioned that officials will examine growth, employment, and inflation data and consider whether the policy is in the right position, and will take action if necessary. In the labor market, Powell believes that the number of jobs created this summer is insufficient to meet the needs of job seekers, hinting at the Fed's tendency for further policy adjustments [3] - Fed Governor Bowman expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times in 2025. Based on the currently weakened labor market, Bowman believes that the Fed will adjust policies at a faster pace and with a larger margin [3] Key Data Comparison - For gold, COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) was 3780.50 US dollars/ounce, up 0.32%; trading volume was 254,900 lots, up 9.63%; open interest was 516,200 lots, up 1.29%; inventory was 1242 tons, up 0.29%. LBMA Gold's closing price was 3730.75 US dollars/ounce, down 0.82%. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) was 854.72 yuan/gram, down 0.61%; trading volume was 408,600 lots, down 9.43%; open interest was 461,100 lots, down 4.29%; inventory was 65.63 tons, up 8.41%. Au(T + D)'s closing price was 851.99 yuan/gram, down 0.50%; trading volume was 53.52 tons, up 11.44%; open interest was 219.67 tons, down 1.07% [8] - For silver, COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) was 45.47 US dollars/ounce, up 3.07%; open interest was 163,000 lots, up 3.99%; inventory was 16483 tons, up 0.53%. LBMA Silver's closing price was 44.94 US dollars/ounce, up 2.43%. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) was 10,411.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.13%; trading volume was 1,121,100 lots, down 13.35%; open interest was 913,900 lots, down 2.18%; inventory was 1156.86 tons, down 0.43%. Ag(T + D)'s closing price was 10,353.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.04%; trading volume was 485.90 tons, down 23.09%; open interest was 3310.104 tons, down 0.09% [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [4][5] - The reasons for the rate cut include slowing economic growth expectations, a low job market, and long-term inflation expectations aligning with the Fed's target [5][6] - Political pressure from the White House, particularly from former President Trump, has been cited as a significant factor influencing the Fed's decision to lower rates [6] Group 2 - The Fed's decision to cut rates raises questions about the potential for a new cycle of monetary easing, with projections indicating a possible further reduction of 50 basis points in 2025 [7] - Despite the rate cut, uncertainties remain regarding the continuity of rate reductions, as inflationary pressures from tariffs could influence future decisions [8] - The stock market is expected to rise due to the Fed's easing policies, while the dollar's exchange rate may decline, complicating trade deficit goals [9][10] Group 3 - The reduction in interest rates could lower the U.S. government's financing costs, but the impact on Treasury yields may be limited due to ongoing debt burdens and political disputes [10] - The Fed's rate cut may benefit developing countries by reducing their dollar debt burdens, but it could also lead to capital inflow challenges and potential financial instability [11] - The global economic landscape may see expanded monetary policy options for other economies, but caution is advised to prevent asset bubbles and financial crises [11]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged again on September 23, with London gold exceeding $3,790 per ounce and COMEX gold surpassing $3,820 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut, gold prices initially experienced volatility but then continued to rise, setting new records [5] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, with JPMorgan predicting spot gold to reach $3,800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and UBS forecasting $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025, up from a previous estimate of $3,500 [5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to initiate a rate cut cycle, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks' continued gold purchases are providing strong support for gold prices, highlighting its long-term investment value [5] - Analysts believe that the trend of gradually easing monetary policy has been established following the Fed's recent rate cut, which may lead to sustained rate cuts in response to a declining labor market, further driving demand for gold ETFs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming election for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4 is drawing significant attention from investors, particularly regarding the policy positions of the five candidates, with Sanae Takaichi being identified as the most likely to cause market volatility [1][7]. Candidate Policy Positions - There are notable divergences among the candidates regarding tax policies, monetary policies, and fiscal directions, with Takaichi seen as a potential catalyst for market fluctuations [1]. - Takaichi's victory could lead to significant impacts on the yen and Japanese government bond markets, as she prioritizes debt-to-GDP ratios over strict fiscal discipline, which may raise expectations for fiscal expansion [1][8]. - In contrast, candidates Shinjiro Koizumi and Yoshimasa Hayashi are expected to maintain continuity in policies, while Takayuki Kobayashi is the only candidate who has not ruled out consumption tax cuts, which could strengthen the yen if he wins [1][4]. Market Reactions - Current market participants are in a wait-and-see mode, with low volatility in the dollar-yen options market, attributed to lessons learned from previous elections and the difficulty in predicting outcomes due to a lack of voting intention information [8]. - If Takaichi wins, it is anticipated to trigger significant market reactions, including a weaker yen and a steepening of the Japanese government bond yield curve [8]. - The potential victory of Koizumi or Hayashi may lead to a mild strengthening of the yen and a flattening of the yield curve, but overall market reactions are expected to be subdued due to a lack of change in outlook [8]. Upcoming Events - Several public debates and policy speeches are scheduled in the next two weeks, culminating in a vote that ends on October 3, followed by the official election on October 4 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Concern should be given to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed Chair. After Milan's statement, both domestic and foreign silver prices showed strength due to expectations of loose monetary policy, and the price of the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new historical high. It is recommended to buy on dips in the current precious metals strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 843 - 870 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On September 23, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 1.46% to 850.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.77% to 10348.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.06% to 3777.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.13% to 44.27 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.31 [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic is temporarily reluctant to support another rate cut in October due to inflation concerns. Cleveland Fed President Harmark, a hawkish Fed official, said that the Fed needs to be cautious about lifting restrictive monetary policies when inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target [2] - Milan, the candidate for the new Fed Chair, is a voting member who supports a 150 - basis - point rate cut this year. He believes there is no inflation caused by tariffs, and the longer the Fed maintains a tight stance, the greater the risk to the employment market. He will strive to persuade other policymakers to cut rates more quickly [3] Strategy Views - Attention should be paid to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed Chair. After Milan's statement, the prices of domestic and foreign silver showed strength, and the price of the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new historical high. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 843 - 870 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [4] Key Data - Gold: COMEX gold's closing price, trading volume, open interest, and inventory all showed an upward trend; LBMA gold's closing price rose 1.54%; SHFE gold's closing price and open interest increased, while trading volume decreased slightly; Au(T + D)'s closing price and open interest rose, and trading volume decreased [8] - Silver: COMEX silver's closing price, trading volume, open interest, and inventory all showed an upward trend; LBMA silver's closing price rose 3.55%; SHFE silver's closing price, trading volume, and open interest increased, while inventory decreased; Ag(T + D)'s closing price, trading volume, and open interest all rose [8] Price and Volume Charts - Multiple charts show the relationships between the prices of COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and Shanghai silver and factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, and open interest, as well as the near - far month structures and price differences between different markets [10][12][14] Price Difference Statistics - On September 22, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was - 65.69 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 34.12 dollars/ounce; the SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 1.02 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 0.79 dollars/ounce [55]