Group 1: Economic Policy and Investment - The fourth quarter is crucial for economic work and planning for the next year, with macro policies being implemented to ensure stable economic performance, requiring approximately 15 trillion yuan in investment and 13 to 14 trillion yuan in consumption [1] - New policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan are expected to support project capital, enhancing infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [4] - Local governments are anticipated to expedite the use of remaining special bond funds, with an estimated 680 billion yuan available for investment [5] Group 2: Consumer Support Policies - The government has issued 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs, with over 330 million people benefiting from subsidies, leading to sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] - There are expectations for further support policies for large-scale consumption, including expanded subsidies for vehicle replacements and initiatives in health, medical, and digital sectors [2][3] - The retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan for the year, with consumption contributing over 50% to GDP [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Investment - China is set to enhance its high-level opening-up policies, with the Hainan Free Trade Port scheduled to officially operate by December 2025, easing restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7] - The 138th China Import and Export Fair will take place from October 15 to November 4, aiming to support foreign trade enterprises amid external challenges [7] - A series of favorable policies for foreign investment are expected to be implemented, focusing on advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors [7][8]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Disturbances Resurface, Copper Prices Correct from Highs [1] Report Date - October 13, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia halted production due to a mudslide accident, and Freeport expects copper production and sales in Q4 2025 to decline significantly. The long - term supply - demand outlook for copper remains optimistic, and the supply tightening will keep the copper market in a tight balance. The impact of the Grasberg shutdown on copper supply - demand and prices may be long - term, and the long - term price center will continue to rise. However, the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions has led to a sharp decline in copper prices. In the domestic market, high copper prices have weakened consumption, but the low inventory provides strong support for copper prices. Copper prices may stabilize after a short - term adjustment and maintain high - level volatility in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to reduce long positions to avoid short - term risks [5][7] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped production due to a mudslide. In September, the domestic southern crude copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the imported CIF crude copper processing fee was 85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton. As of October 10, the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 40.70 dollars/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 50.9 tons, a 6.04% increase. In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a 11.62% year - on - year increase but a 4.31% month - on - month decrease due to smelter overhauls and anode plate supply shortages [5] - **Demand Side**: The recovery of downstream consumption during the peak season was limited, and high copper prices suppressed demand. As of October 9, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 43.44%, a 30.34 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 16.99 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventory increased slightly after the holiday. As of October 10, SHFE copper inventory was 10.97 tons, a 15.42% week - on - week increase. As of October 9, domestic social copper inventory was 166,300 tons, a 12.14% week - on - week increase. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, a 0.77% week - on - week decrease, and COMEX copper inventory was 33,950 short tons, a 3.81% week - on - week increase [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the Grasberg mine shutdown, copper prices initially rose sharply but then dropped significantly due to Sino - US trade tensions. Long - term supply - demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. It is recommended to reduce long positions to avoid short - term risks [7] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - **Macroeconomic Data Overview**: New policy - based financial instruments total 500 billion yuan; China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8; the PBOC increased its gold holdings by 40,000 ounces in September; the US government "shut down" on October 1, affecting economic data release; US September ADP employment decreased by 32,000; US September ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month [15] - **Industry News Overview**: The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association opposes "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry; Goldman Sachs lowered its copper supply forecast after the Grasberg mine disruption; Peru's Antamina expects its 2026 copper production to increase to 450,000 tons; Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project will start construction in October; Chile's Codelco's August copper production dropped 25% [16] 3. Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: After the holiday, the spot copper market was quiet. As the weekend approached, the spot purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai copper market picked up, and the premium stabilized. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed slightly, the New York - London copper price difference decreased, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened slightly [19] - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of October 10, the Shanghai copper futures position was 216,115 lots, a 1.05% increase from before the holiday, and the average daily trading volume was 175,142 lots, a 18.93% increase. As of October 3, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 14,672.88 lots, a 146.77% week - on - week increase. As of September 23, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 43,389 lots, a 3.07% week - on - week increase [25] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped production, and Q4 2025 copper production and sales are expected to decline. In September, domestic and imported crude copper processing fees decreased. As of October 10, the copper concentrate port inventory increased slightly. In September, electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month due to smelter overhauls and anode plate supply shortages [34] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of October 9, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped significantly. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. High copper prices and trade policies affected the operating rates of some products [37] - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 10, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 7.99, and the loss on copper spot imports widened slightly. In August, refined copper, scrap copper, and unforged copper and copper product imports increased year - on - year [41] - **Inventory**: As of October 10, SHFE copper inventory increased, domestic social copper inventory increased slightly, LME copper inventory decreased, and COMEX copper inventory increased [48]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has significantly increased liquidity net injection in September, amounting to 926.8 billion yuan, indicating a potential for further monetary easing in the fourth quarter, including possible reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - In September, the PBOC's liquidity injection included 19 million yuan from the Standing Lending Facility (SLF), 300 billion yuan from the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), and 3.9 trillion yuan from short-term reverse repos, while there was no activity in government bond transactions [3][4]. - The MLF and reverse repos can serve as substitutes for government bond transactions, reducing the necessity for the PBOC to inject liquidity through bond purchases [3][4]. - The PBOC's toolbox remains rich, with significant room for both quantity-based tools like RRR cuts and price-based tools like interest rate cuts [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by weak recovery, necessitating a continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to address external shocks and domestic demand deficiencies [4][9]. - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to be a crucial pathway for stimulating investment, with a projected leverage effect that could lead to an additional investment scale of approximately 1 trillion to 1.7 trillion yuan [4][7]. - The PBOC's approach to government bond transactions differs fundamentally from quantitative easing (QE) practices in developed economies, focusing on liquidity management rather than a large-scale, one-sided purchase of bonds [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Indicators - The market liquidity remains ample, with funding rates stabilizing around policy rates, and the PBOC is expected to maintain a balance between financial stability and economic development [3][8]. - Observations of market interest rates should focus on the weighted average of key rates rather than individual transaction rates, as fiscal factors can influence liquidity conditions [8][9]. - The anticipated gradual recovery of prices will require coordinated efforts across various sectors, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to trend down to around 1.6% amid ongoing economic adjustments [9].

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 钢材: | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五螺卷跳空高开，收阴线。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问时表示，中国的 | | | | | 出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合规定的申请将予以许可。中方事先已就措施可能对 | | | | | 产供链产生的影响进行了充分评估，并确信相关影响非常有限。如果美方一意孤行， | | | | | 中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 | | | | | 2、住建部：目前全国白名单项目贷款的审批金额已经超过了 7 万亿元，有力保障 | | | | | 了商品房项目建设交付。存量住房市场规模持续扩大，全国已有 15 个省区市二手 | | | | | 住宅的交易量超过新房。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 3、据了解，自国家发 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government is in a shutdown due to a lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill, leading to a focus on private sector data as official reports are absent. The ADP employment numbers for September showed a larger-than-expected decline, indicating a continued weakening trend in employment. Manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded but remains in contraction territory, with new orders reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector. Non-manufacturing PMI is also not optimistic, with price components slightly rising due to tariff cost transmission [2][3] - In Europe and Japan, political instability is evident with the resignation of the French Prime Minister and the election of a right-leaning leader in Japan, creating uncertainty in the political landscape. The European Central Bank has no immediate plans for rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike process may slow down due to policy direction [3] - Domestic consumption has been boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption. However, the real estate market shows signs of weakness, particularly in first-tier cities, and the central bank is expected to adopt a more flexible and anticipatory policy approach in the fourth quarter [2][3] Fixed Income Research - In Q3 2025, the central bank maintained support for the market with significant net injections through reverse repos and MLF, keeping funding prices low. The issuance of government bonds decreased, but net financing remained high due to reduced maturity volumes. The bond market showed a bear steepening trend, with investor confidence in buying bonds remaining low [5][6] - Looking ahead to Q4, the bond market is expected to remain under pressure, but the situation is anticipated to improve compared to Q3. The key indicators to watch include PPI, which will influence bond pricing. The central bank's continued support and potential resumption of bond purchases are expected to stabilize interest rates [6][7] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday, but supply may also increase, making significant improvements in the fundamentals unlikely. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a key event to monitor for industry developments [8] - For copper, global supply remains tight, providing support for prices, but general demand and high prices may pressure future price increases. Aluminum prices are expected to face limitations due to high costs affecting purchasing sentiment [8][9] - Gold prices are influenced by the U.S. entering a rate cut cycle and political risks from the government shutdown. If the shutdown is resolved and economic data remains strong, gold may face short-term corrections [9][10] - Lithium supply concerns have eased with approvals for resource reports, but short-term oversupply pressures may affect prices. Rare earth prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic export policies and overseas demand [9][10] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The recent World Lung Cancer Conference highlighted the R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The National Medical Products Administration has initiated the 11th round of centralized drug procurement [12][13] - The medical care CPI for August showed a 0.9% year-on-year increase, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI decreased by 2.9%. Cumulative revenue and profit in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector have declined by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2025 [13] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback in September, with a focus on the upcoming ESMO conference and third-quarter earnings reports. There is potential for improvement in fundamentals, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [14][15]

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a 116 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity and stabilize interest rates, indicating a willingness to support economic recovery [1] - The operation had a fixed interest rate of 1.40% and a full bid amount of 116 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 116 billion yuan for the day [1] Group 2 - Multiple trust companies received notifications to investigate their reverse repurchase leverage ratios, reflecting regulatory concerns about market risks and the need for stricter controls [2] - This move aims to standardize market operations and prevent the accumulation of high leverage risks, contributing to long-term financial market stability [2] Group 3 - Various regions are seizing the "golden period" for major project construction, with new policy financial tools being rapidly implemented to support project capital [3] - The announcement of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to boost infrastructure investment growth in the fourth quarter, positively impacting related industries [3] Group 4 - Three gold and jewelry companies in Shenzhen were penalized for illegal activities, including operating a gambling business, highlighting the need for increased legal awareness and risk prevention among investors [4] - The crackdown on illegal activities in the gold and jewelry market aims to enhance market transparency and credibility, promoting healthier industry development in the long run [4] Group 5 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 11th day, affecting approximately 600,000 employees who are either on unpaid leave or working without pay [5] - The shutdown has begun to result in layoffs, with over 4,000 employees from various departments facing termination [5]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Investment - The fourth quarter is crucial for economic work and planning for the next year, with macro policies being implemented effectively [1] - An estimated investment of around 15 trillion yuan and consumption of 13 to 14 trillion yuan is needed in the fourth quarter [1] - New policy tools are expected to stimulate investment, with a focus on major project construction and financial support [4][5] Group 2: Consumer Support Policies - A new round of consumer support policies is anticipated, including an additional 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumption upgrades [2] - The "old for new" subsidy program has seen 330 million participants, driving sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] - Policies may also support sectors like health, tourism, and digital services, with potential issuance of consumption vouchers [2] Group 3: Retail and Consumption Growth - Factors such as childcare subsidies and a recovering stock market are expected to support retail sales growth, with total retail sales projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [3] - The contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to surpass 50% [3] Group 4: Foreign Trade Policies - Significant foreign trade policies are set to be released in the fourth quarter, with a focus on high-level opening up [6] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is on track for its official operation by December 2025, with plans to ease restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7] - The 138th Canton Fair will introduce new measures to support foreign trade enterprises [7] Group 5: Financial and Investment Support - Local governments are expected to expedite the use of remaining special bond funds, with an estimated 680 billion yuan available [5] - New policies to encourage private investment in emerging sectors are anticipated [5] - Financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan will be used to support project capital [4]

四季度是全年经济工作冲刺的收官季，也是谋划下一年发展的关键期。近期，从中央到地方，一揽子宏 观政策持续落地，效能不断显现。 受访专家认为，全年经济实现平稳运行，预计四季度需要15万亿元左右的投资总量和13万亿元至14万亿 元的消费总量。在稳投资、稳消费、稳外贸等领域或将推出增量政策，并强化现有政策的执行，结合财 政、货币、行业政策打出组合拳。 全力冲刺四季度经济哪些增量政策值得期待？ ◎记者白丽斐李苑 重大项目建设离不开充足的资金保障。国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超日前表 示，新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲预计，新型政策性金融工具主要面向将要开工或已开工未完工的项目，用作 项目资本金，以尽快实现实物工作量的增长。按照过往经验来看，政策性金融工具将对四季度基建投资 起到一定撬动作用。 大宗消费支持政策或将再加码 为推动消费结构转型升级，一揽子提振消费举措持续落地。 近日，国家发展改革委会同财政部，向地方下达了今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧 换新资金，至此全年3000亿元中央资金已全部下达。今年前8个月，全国共有3.3亿 ...

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government is focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing long-term strategic adjustments to macroeconomic policies rather than short-term gains[4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy financial tool worth CNY 500 billion to support effective investment[5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from "implementation" to "execution," aiming for a moderately loose monetary policy[8] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies are being introduced to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and machinery, with an emphasis on capacity reduction[6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added over the next two years[7] Real Estate Policy - Cities like Guangzhou and Wuhan are implementing measures to optimize land use and stimulate demand, including interest subsidies for home loans[9] - The focus is on utilizing existing urban land effectively as China enters a "stock era" in urban development[9] Trade Relations - The U.S.-China trade conflict is escalating, with the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025[12] - China has responded with export controls on rare earth technologies, affecting various critical sectors[11] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown due to funding issues, impacting federal employees and public services[15] - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions remain uncertain, with discussions around potential rate cuts to address labor market concerns[16] Market Trends - In the first week of October, major overseas stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, experienced declines of approximately 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively[18] - Gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold reaching USD 3,986.20 per ounce, reflecting a 2.68% increase[19] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[20]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is traditionally a high-frequency window for fiscal policy to intensify, especially under weak domestic demand conditions, where the pressure to meet annual economic targets becomes more pronounced [2][8][10] - The cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters is projected to exceed the annual target, suggesting that the pressure to implement large-scale counter-cyclical policies in the fourth quarter is lower than in previous years [10][11] - The report indicates that even if the economic growth continues to moderate in the fourth quarter, as long as it does not deviate significantly from the central level, the growth rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [11][18] Group 2 - The establishment of 500 billion new policy financial tools at the end of the third quarter is noted as a significant measure to support project initiation in the fourth quarter, which could leverage local matching investments and potentially create a multiplier effect of around one trillion [3][11] - The report suggests that the reliance on large-scale additional stimulus is decreasing, indicating that the fiscal policy's focus may shift towards consolidating the economic fundamentals rather than introducing substantial new measures [11][18] - The report emphasizes that the short-term market dynamics are likely to be driven more by risk appetite and market microstructure rather than significant policy changes, with a notable recovery in market sentiment observed [4][14][18] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential for emotional recovery and risk preference resonance in the market, suggesting that the current low sentiment levels may lead to a phase of recovery, although this is subject to external shocks or internal sentiment weakening [4][14] - It is noted that the market's microstructure is currently similar to that of April, with sentiment indicators at a two-year low, reflecting a comprehensive pricing of negative factors [14][18] - The report concludes that while there is some room for fiscal policy intervention, the urgency is not as pronounced as in previous years, and the market's mid-term expectations have shifted significantly compared to earlier in the year [18]