Group 1: Policy Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the establishment of a new policy financial tool with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital[1] - The timeline from April to September allows local governments 4-5 months to finalize project lists and funding matches, with projects expected to launch densely between October and December[2] - This initiative is projected to create a leverage effect of 2-3 times, corresponding to an additional investment scale of approximately 1-1.7 trillion yuan[7] Group 2: Economic Impact - The new financial tool is designed to stabilize growth and support economic development, especially as fixed asset investment growth has slowed to 0.5% year-on-year from January to August[4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by only 2.0% year-on-year, indicating a need for intervention[4] - The tool will focus on key areas such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green low-carbon transformation, emphasizing new productivity and technological upgrades[6] Group 3: Historical Context and Differences - Previous similar financial tools included a special construction fund of 2 trillion yuan in 2015 and 740 billion yuan in 2022, both of which had significant impacts on stabilizing growth[6] - The current tool differs by providing direct capital support of 500 billion yuan specifically for project capital, reducing uncertainty in funding allocation[6] - It also aligns with other policies, such as long-term special government bonds and a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing its effectiveness[6]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market may continue to oscillate after the holiday. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. The content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to adjust and consolidate before the holiday. In the later stage, focus should be on the recovery of coal mine production and downstream steel demand [8]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels, with a weakening market sentiment. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to gradually recover in September, the sharp decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [14]. - For ferroalloys, due to the influence of surrounding varieties, the previous short positions of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon can be reduced, and the current price is not suitable for chasing short positions [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. Shanghai's rebar price is 3240 yuan (-10), and hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector continued to decline on the night of the 29th. The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but hot - rolled coil production decreased. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, while rebar demand continued to recover. After the holiday, steel demand may recover to some extent, but there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday. The rebar valuation is low at present, and the downside space is limited. The market rumors that Tangshan will implement production restrictions, so the post - holiday market may continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread. Options: Observe [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On September 29th, some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. Three coal mines in Linfen Xiangning will stop production for 3 - 7 days from October 1st, with a total impact on raw coal of about 206,000 tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: As the holiday approaches, the replenishment of coking coal and coke is basically completed, and the market has strong risk - aversion sentiment. In the medium term, domestic coking coal production will be restricted, and the supply side has policy support. It is expected that the market will adjust and consolidate before the holiday [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the short term, it is still regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with a focus on risk - aversion before the holiday; in the medium term, try to go long on dips. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Observe. Futures - cash: Observe [9][10][11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. In August, the country issued 571.5 billion yuan in new bonds. On September 29th, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports was 584,000 tons, a 46% increase from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. Before the holiday, iron ore prices fell from high levels, and the market sentiment weakened. In terms of fundamentals, mainstream mines have improved since the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines have maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand has declined rapidly in the third quarter, and iron ore valuation remains high in the black - metal sector [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak operation. Arbitrage: Mainly conduct futures - cash reverse arbitrage. Options: Mainly use circuit - breaker cumulative put options [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 29th, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were stable. The Politburo held a meeting on September 29th to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, on the 29th, the spot price was slightly weaker, and the supply pressure remained. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed. For manganese - silicon, the spot price was also slightly weaker, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. After being dragged down by surrounding varieties, the current valuation is neutral [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Big funds drive up the financial sector, making the market prone to rising and difficult to fall. New news about DeepSeek will push the technology sector's market to spread and extend to the software application end, and the market is expected to continue in October [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the Political Bureau meeting emphasized high - quality development in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including new development concepts, reform, opening - up, and risk prevention. Overseas, Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on overseas - made movies and furniture from non - US countries [1] - In the spot market, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.9% to 3862.53 and the ChiNext Index rising 2.74%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2.1 trillion yuan. The scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan. Overseas, US major indices also rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.48% [2] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded rapidly, and the IF and IH contracts were at a premium. Both trading volume and open interest increased [2] Strategy - Big funds drive the financial sector up, and the market is likely to keep rising. New news of DeepSeek will expand the technology sector's market to software applications, and the market is expected to continue in October [3] Macro - economic Charts - Include charts on the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [5][6][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices, such as the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.05%, etc. Also include charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balance [5][6][13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - Provide data on the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), basis, and inter - delivery spreads. For example, the trading volume and open interest of all contracts increased, and the basis of each contract changed [5][6][17]

在投资方面，今年前8个月制造业投资增长5.1%，信息服务业，航空、航天器及设备制造业，计算机及 办公设备制造业投资同比分别增长34.1%、28.0%和12.6%，有力支撑产业升级发展。 9月29日，国家发展改革委召开9月新闻发布会，新闻发言人李超表示，正积极推进5000亿元的新型政策 性金融工具落地，推动扩大有效投资。 为促进金融更好地服务实体经济，推动扩大有效投资。国家发展改革委积极推进新型政策性金融工具相 关工作，新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 国家发展改革委新闻发言人 李超：我们正在会同有关方面，抓紧把新型政策性金融工具资金投入到具 体项目，后续将督促各地方推动项目加快开工建设，尽快形成更多实物工作量，推动扩大有效投资，促 进经济平稳健康发展。 国家发展改革委新闻发言人 李超：当前经济运行依然面临不少风险和挑战，外部环境仍然复杂严峻， 经济回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩固。随着各项政策效应充分释放，我们有信心持续保持经济平稳健康 发展，有信心实现全年目标任务。 ◆来源：央视财经 编辑：孙懿辞 初审：梁爽 复审：曹光宇 终审：臧立 ...

9月29日，国家发展改革委举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超就经 济领域热点问题进行了回应。 针对当前经济运行情况，李超表示，从全局全貌看，尽管面临外部压力，但在宏观政策持续发力等因素 带动下，我国经济运行总体平稳，高质量发展扎实推进。从供给侧看，生产平稳增长，制造业、服务业 的重点领域增势良好。从景气程度看，工业企业利润明显改善。从需求侧看，政策效能持续显现，展现 出较强的韧性和抗压能力。 李超表示，为促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩大有效投资，国家发展改革委会同有关方面积极推进 新型政策性金融工具有关工作。新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。"我 们正在会同有关方面，抓紧将新型政策性金融工具资金投放到具体项目，后续将督促各地方推动项目加 快开工建设，尽快形成更多实物工作量，推动扩大有效投资，促进经济平稳健康发展。"李超表示。 "当前经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，外部环境仍然复杂严峻，经济回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩 固。"李超表示，下一步，国家发展改革委将持续发力、适时加力实施宏观政策。同时，将持续加强经 济监测预测预警，做好政策预研储备，根据形势变化及 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - 8月中国经济整体表现低于市场预期，内需需持续发力以保持经济较快增长，部分逆周期调节政策或近期落地，临近假期国债期货短线或震荡，交易型投资建议波段操作 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - 周一国债期货主力合约开盘全线小幅高开，多数早盘震荡走低、午后横向波动，30年期回调幅度大，截至收盘30年期国债期货主力合约TL2512下跌0.47%，10年期T2512下跌0.01%，5年期TF2512下跌0.04%，2年期TS2512下跌0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information - 公开市场：周一央行开展2886亿元7天期逆回购操作，当日有2405亿元逆回购到期，实现净投放481亿元 [1] - 资金市场：周一银行间资金市场隔夜利率基本不变，DR001全天加权平均为1.31%，DR007全天加权平均为1.59% [1] - 现券市场：周一银行间国债现券收盘收益率多数上行，2年期到期收益率上行0.43个BP至1.51%，5年期上行1.62个BP至1.64%，10年期上行0.89个BP至1.89%，30年期上行2.40个BP至2.24% [1] - 中共中央政治局9月29日召开会议研究制定十五五规划重大问题，二十届四中全会将于10月20日至23日在北京召开 [1] - 9月29日国家发改委表示新型政策性金融工具规模5000亿元用于补充项目资本金，正抓紧投放资金，后续将督促开工建设形成实物工作量，还将持续发力实施宏观政策并加强经济监测 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - 8月中国经济低于预期，内需需发力，部分逆周期调节政策或落地，8月工业企业利润同比大幅增长有去年同期低基数原因，央行将保证流动性充裕，周一国债期货主力合约高开后受股指上涨制约回调，超长品种回调多 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - 交易型投资进行波段操作 [2]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in China increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.8% in September, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - Factors contributing to this recovery include the easing of adverse weather conditions, the implementation of consumer loan interest subsidies, and the full rollout of the third batch of national subsidies for trade-in programs [1] - The production index rose to 51.9%, the highest in nearly six months, while the new orders index increased to 49.7% [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.0%, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.8% and 48.2%, respectively, indicating varying levels of manufacturing activity across different enterprise sizes [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI recorded a value of 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with the construction sector index at 49.3% and the services sector index at 50.1% [5] - Certain service industries, such as postal and telecommunications, showed strong activity with indices above 60.0%, while sectors like catering and real estate remained below the critical point [5] Group 3 - Economic forecasts suggest that the fourth quarter may see the implementation of new policy measures to support economic growth, including financial tools and potential monetary easing [2][4] - The National Development and Reform Commission is actively working on new policy financial tools, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at enhancing effective investment [4] - Proposed fiscal measures may include increasing support for equipment updates and extending special government bonds, which could significantly bolster the macroeconomic environment, particularly in manufacturing [5]

2025.09. 30 本文字数：3352，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 作为破解当前投资困境、推动经济高质量发展的关键抓手，新型政策性金融工具迎来新进展。 国家发改委新闻发言人李超29日在发布会上透露，为促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩大有效投 资，国家发改委会同有关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具有关工作。新型政策性金融工具规模共 5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 李超表示，正会同有关方面，抓紧将新型政策性金融工具资金投放到具体项目，后续将督促各地方推 动项目加快开工建设，尽快形成更多实物工作量，推动扩大有效投资，促进经济平稳健康发展。 当前民间投资已连续3个月负增长，新型政策性金融工具有望向民营企业倾斜。第一财经记者了解 到，进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施即将发布，部署拓宽民间投资空间，破除限制民间投资的各 种隐性壁垒。支持民间资本加大新质生产力、新兴服务业、新型基础设施等领域投资。 有望撬动6万亿投资 我国政策性金融工具运用由来已久。比如，2022年7400亿元政策性开发性金融工具应运而生，通过 补充项目资本金、撬动配套融资，对重大项目形成精准支持。 近期，投资增长持续承压。国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience volatile adjustments [2][4]. - The decline of the US dollar will push up copper prices [2][9]. - Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound [2][12]. - The decline in lead inventory will limit the price drop [2][15]. - Tin and aluminum will trade within a range, and alumina will remain weak. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - Nickel prices will fluctuate at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations. Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the short - term supply - demand and cost game [2][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2510 was 863.60 with a daily increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 870.42 with a 1.02% increase. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2510 was 10912 with a 3.07% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 10907.00 with a 0.66% increase. Gold trend strength is 0, and silver trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting; the National Development and Reform Commission announced new policy - based financial instruments; the US Bureau of Labor Statistics may suspend data release during a government shutdown; Trump mentioned an Israel - Gaza conflict plan; the value of US gold reserves reached $1 trillion [5][8][20]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 82370 with a - 0.12% daily change, and the night - session closing price was 83680 with a 1.59% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading closing price was 10429 with a 2.19% increase. Copper trend strength is 2 [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission announced new policy - based financial instruments; investors worried about government shutdown delaying economic data; Freeport declared force majeure at the Grasberg mine; the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Copper Branch opposed "involution - style" competition; Foran Mining's project is expected to start commercial production; Argentina approved a copper project [9][11]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 21800 with a - 0.82% daily change. The LME zinc 3M electronic - trading closing price was 2886.5 with a - 1.23% change. Zinc trend strength is 0 [12]. - **News**: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics may suspend data release during a government shutdown [13]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16855 with a - 1.49% daily change. The LME lead 3M electronic - trading closing price was 2001.5 with a - 0.37% change. Lead trend strength is 0 [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission announced new policy - based financial instruments; investors worried about government shutdown delaying economic data [16]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 272410 with a - 0.61% daily change, and the night - session closing price was 279670 with a 2.62% increase. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading closing price was 35465 with a 3.05% increase. Tin trend strength is 0 [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver news, including Politburo meeting, new policy - based financial instruments, etc. [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20730. The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2904. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20270. Aluminum trend strength is 0, alumina trend strength is - 1, and aluminum alloy trend strength is 0 [22][24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The National Development and Reform Commission announced new policy - based financial instruments and measures to promote AI application [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 121100. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12760. Nickel trend strength is 0, and stainless - steel trend strength is 0 [25][31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia plans to shorten mining quota periods, adjust RKAB production, some nickel - iron smelting plants suspend production, and there are various regulatory and production - related events in Indonesia and China [25][26][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The date of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee has been set, which is from October 20th to 23rd, and it will review the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". Market expectations continue to improve, and the impact of macro - policies is gradually shifting from "removal" on the supply - side to "stability", with the incremental demand on the demand - side being the focus for the future [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments. Based on the project capital ratio of 20% and the new policy - based financial instrument ratio of 50%, it can drive investment projects worth 5 trillion yuan. Attention should be paid to the stabilization and recovery of the economic cycle in the fourth quarter. There are differences between internal and external expectations, with external negative impacts on global total demand rising and internal positive impacts on the economy rising [4]. Summary by Related Content Event Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided on September 29th that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd in Beijing. The National Development and Reform Commission announced on September 29th that the scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan, all used to supplement project capital [2]. Policy Background and Impact - The new policy - based financial instruments were first proposed at the Political Bureau meeting on April 25th, 2025, aiming to solve the problem of insufficient project capital and supporting funds, with the direction of "supporting scientific and technological innovation, expanding consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, etc." [4].