1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - to - long term, and recommend bargain - hunting allocation of forward contracts of various varieties [2] - For treasury bond futures, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery in the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On December 29th, the four major A - share stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.04%. Market turnover was 21,577 billion yuan, a decrease of 234 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.48%), national defense and military industry (+1.43%), and banks (+1.03%) led the gains; non - ferrous metals (-1.95%), public utilities (-1.24%), and power equipment (-1.13%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM > IH > IC > IF. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,993/139/3,325 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 21.1 billion, - 27.2 billion, 8.6 billion, and 39.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 19.4 billion, - 4.7 billion, +14.4 billion, and +9.7 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 93.96, 51.61, 18.57, and - 2.17 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 9.1%, - 5.11%, - 2.94%, and 0.52% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 48%, 51%, 36%, and 54% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate forward contracts of various varieties on dips [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On December 29th, the trend of interest - rate bonds was weak. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.07%, TF fell 0.18%, T fell 0.28%, and TL fell 0.91% [2] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of +0.6 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.024, and an IRR of 1.48%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +4.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.022, and an IRR of 1.7%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +3.15 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.05, and an IRR of 1.36%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +6 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.082, and an IRR of 1.9% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 482.3 billion yuan of currency and withdrew 67.3 billion yuan, with a net injection of 415 billion yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, import and export, and social activities is temporarily lower than in previous periods, while the prosperity of infrastructure is similar to that in previous periods [8]

□本报记者 张韵 崔宸龙，2016年11月至2017年8月任深圳市前海安康投资发展有限公司研究部研究员。2017年8月加入前 海开源基金，现任首席ESG官、投资部负责人、基金经理。截至今年三季度末，其在管基金总规模超过 150亿元。 曾因初管产品仅一年多，便摘得股基、混基双料冠军而被誉为"黑马"基金经理；曾因踩中新能源行情， 管理规模从不到7亿元飙升至最高超400亿元，一跃成为头部基金经理。也曾在随后的调整行情中，因净 值回撤被质疑，基金规模大幅缩水；更由于对新能源板块的重仓，而被贴上赛道型基金经理的标签…… 时过境迁，前海开源基金投资部负责人、基金经理、首席ESG官崔宸龙正在逐渐开启新的征程。 数据显示，截至发稿时，崔宸龙在管产品净值今年以来均涨超15%。多只在管基金的近三年、近五年业 绩位居同类产品前列。 近日，崔宸龙在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，人生中起起落落在所难免，作为投资者，更重要的是 追求投资能力不断提升，持续拓展能力圈。他一直尝试打破过往赛道型基金经理的桎梏，延伸至全市场 投资。展望未来，他表示，在多个行业基本面向好和市场整体流动性宽松的双重提振下，继续看好权益 市场，2026年会重点关注大 ...

崔宸龙，2016年11月至2017年8月任深圳市前海安康投资发展有限公司研究部研究员。2017年8月加入前 海开源基金，现任首席ESG官、投资部负责人、基金经理。截至今年三季度末，其在管基金总规模超过 150亿元。 曾因初管产品仅一年多，便摘得股基、混基双料冠军而被誉为"黑马"基金经理；曾因踩中新能源行情， 管理规模从不到7亿元飙升至最高超400亿元，一跃成为头部基金经理。也曾在随后的调整行情中，因净 值回撤被质疑，基金规模大幅缩水；更由于对新能源板块的重仓，而被贴上赛道型基金经理的标签…… 时过境迁，前海开源基金投资部负责人、基金经理、首席ESG官崔宸龙正在逐渐开启新的征程。 Wind数据显示，截至发稿时，崔宸龙在管产品净值今年以来均涨超15%。多只在管基金的近三年、近 五年业绩位居同类产品前列。 近日，崔宸龙在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，人生中起起落落在所难免，作为投资者，更重要的是 追求投资能力不断提升，持续拓展能力圈。他一直尝试打破过往赛道型基金经理的桎梏，延伸至全市场 投资。展望未来，他表示，在多个行业基本面向好和市场整体流动性宽松的双重提振下，继续看好权益 市场，2026年会重点关注大科技和经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the RMB, its potential sustainability, and the medium-term outlook for the currency amidst changing economic conditions and external factors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent RMB Appreciation - The rapid appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index from 99.4 to below 98, influenced by lower interest rate differentials and expectations of intervention by the Bank of Japan [2]. - A surge in currency settlement activity is anticipated to begin this week, with the actual swap points rising significantly, indicating increased trading volume [2]. Group 2: Short-term Sustainability of RMB Appreciation - The ongoing currency settlement wave is expected to support the RMB, with historical data suggesting that after two consecutive quarters of appreciation, the settlement rate typically improves [3]. - The delayed impact of the February Spring Festival may also contribute to the continued improvement in settlement rates over the next month [3]. Group 3: Medium-term Outlook for RMB - With nominal GDP recovery, the RMB and USD may enter a phase of mutual strength, supported by reduced debt pressure and improved investment and profitability by 2026 [4]. - Enhanced external demand and increased export share are expected to bolster the resilience of exports, transitioning the economy from a confidence-building phase to a "non-typical" recovery, which may sustain the RMB's strength [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the RMB, its potential sustainability, and the medium-term outlook for the currency amidst changing economic conditions and external factors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent RMB Appreciation - The rapid appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index from 99.4 to below 98, influenced by lower interest rate differentials and expectations of intervention by the Bank of Japan [2]. - A surge in currency settlement activity is anticipated to begin this week, with the actual swap points rising significantly, indicating increased trading volume [2]. Group 2: Short-term Sustainability of RMB Appreciation - The ongoing currency settlement wave is expected to support the RMB, with historical data suggesting that after two consecutive quarters of appreciation, the settlement rate typically improves [3]. - The delayed impact of the February Spring Festival may also contribute to the continued improvement in settlement rates over the next month [3]. Group 3: Medium-term Outlook for RMB - With nominal GDP recovery, the RMB and USD may enter a phase of mutual strength, supported by reduced debt pressure and improved investment and profitability by 2026 [4]. - Enhanced external demand and increased export resilience are expected to contribute to a non-typical recovery, potentially keeping the RMB relatively strong [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved an "eight consecutive days" rise, supported by strong domestic capital, with trading volumes exceeding 1.9 trillion CNY on December 25 and 26[4] - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has recently strengthened, breaking the 7.0 mark, influenced by the US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, becoming a key variable for future market trends[4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recommended trading strategy during this RMB appreciation phase is a mid-term focus on "pan-technology" and a short-term defensive approach, emphasizing sectors like commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications[1] - Investors are advised to maintain a low position in defensive stocks such as paper and aviation, which directly benefit from RMB appreciation, especially during the annual report forecast period[1] Group 3: Beneficiary Sectors - Beneficiary sectors are categorized into three tiers: - Tier 1: Cost and debt improvement sectors that directly benefit from RMB appreciation, showing high elasticity[4] - Tier 2: Core assets driven by capital flow, benefiting from increased attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets[4] - Tier 3: Asset revaluation opportunities due to the intrinsic value enhancement of RMB-denominated assets[4] Group 4: Historical Context - Since 2017, the RMB has experienced three rapid appreciation phases, each with different underlying logic and market conditions, including core asset bull markets and significant recovery in exports[5] - The current phase differs from previous ones, characterized by domestic capital dominance and a focus on technology-driven growth rather than economic recovery[6]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened significantly against the US dollar (USD), reaching a nearly 14-month high, driven by divergent monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The RBA has maintained its policy interest rate, emphasizing upward inflation risks and the possibility of further tightening, which has ended market expectations for rate cuts [1]. - In contrast, the Fed has implemented multiple rate cuts, maintaining a relatively low policy rate, with market expectations leaning towards continued easing in the future [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's economy shows resilience, with strong private demand and business investment, and inflation levels approaching the upper target range, providing a solid foundation for policy stability or tightening [1]. - The weakening of the USD, alongside structural trends, has diminished its attractiveness, indirectly supporting the AUD's rise [2]. Group 3: Commodity Prices and Trade - The AUD benefits from recovering commodity prices and improved demand from China, Australia's largest trading partner, enhancing export prospects [2]. - Prices for key Australian exports like iron ore and coal have stabilized, while precious and industrial metal prices have surged, positively impacting Australia's trade balance [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technical indicators and institutional forecasts suggest a clear upward trend for the AUD, with expectations for further gains if the current strength is maintained [3]. - Major international banks predict that the AUD will continue to rise, with an overall upward shift in its trading range [3]. Group 5: Risks and Future Outlook - Domestic consumption in Australia shows signs of weakness, with a significant drop in consumer confidence and mixed employment market signals, which may hinder economic recovery [3]. - The potential for an overly strong AUD could weaken the competitiveness of non-resource exports, while external risks such as global economic slowdown and trade tensions may lead to volatility [3]. - Investors should monitor Australian inflation data and the Fed's future rate-cutting path, as well as commodity price fluctuations and China's economic recovery, to gauge the AUD's trajectory [3].

Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in 2025 showed a gradual decline in GDP across the first three quarters, with final consumption expenditure becoming the main driver of GDP growth, contributing increasingly to the overall economic performance [1][4] - Inflation indicators showed a low recovery in CPI, a steady rise in core CPI, and a V-shaped stabilization in PPI [1][4] - Investment trends indicated a strong start followed by a weakening phase, with manufacturing shifting towards "optimal capacity" and infrastructure investment experiencing a phase decline in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1][4] - Export dynamics displayed a pattern of high performance followed by volatility, with significant drag from exports to the US [1][4] - Overall, the economic landscape is characterized by a steady yet progressive optimization [1][4] Bond Market Insights - The interest rate bond market exhibited a trend of oscillating upward movement, with increased volatility and a steepening yield curve influenced by policy expectations, risk appetite shifts, and external environmental factors [2][5] - The credit bond market showed characteristics of low interest rates, low default rates, strong differentiation, and extended durations, with issuance reaching historical highs and credit spreads continuing to compress [2][5] - The market structure is transitioning from total expansion to structural optimization, with accelerated risk clearance and a rapid contraction in low-grade city investment bonds [2][5] 2026 Outlook - The certainty of growth and inflation in 2026 is expected to hinge on policy expansion, accelerated transition of old and new growth drivers, and the persistence of a low inflation environment [2][5] - Key variables affecting the outlook include changes in the external trade environment, the slope of domestic demand recovery, and shifts in resident income expectations, as well as the pace of industrial product price recovery [2][5] - There remains potential for further monetary easing, with a higher probability of a downward shift in short-term interest rate centers [2][5] - Long-term interest rates may be influenced by the slope of macroeconomic recovery and the extent of inflation rebound, with expectations of continued decline in long-term government bond yields if economic recovery is slow and inflation remains subdued [2][5] - If fiscal stimulus leads to a rebound in nominal GDP and rising inflation expectations, the interest rate center is likely to rise compared to 2025 [2][5] - Credit risk is anticipated to remain manageable with low default pressure, and the value and resilience of credit bonds are expected to be stable, although macroeconomic changes and supply-demand factors may impact the potential for credit spread expansion [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment, with a focus on the performance of the stock and bond markets during the holiday season. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market continues to show strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a seven-day rally, indicating a "Christmas rally" effect among investors [4] - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, reflecting a positive sentiment in the currency market [3][4] - The bond market shows a slight increase in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8375% [3][4] Group 2: Liquidity and Interest Rates - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 188.8 billion yuan through reverse repos and MLF operations, contributing to a balanced liquidity environment [1] - The overnight and seven-day repo rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.26% and DR007 slightly rising to 1.48% due to year-end factors [1] - The weighted average rates for various repos indicate a slight decrease in transaction volumes, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.52% [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Zhejiang Dingli Industry Overview - The domestic aerial work platform market experienced a 43% year-on-year decline in sales from January to November 2025, primarily due to previous rapid expansion, with expectations for the market to stabilize or slightly decline in 2026. [2][3] - The U.S. market for aerial work platforms has seen stagnation in ownership growth, but increased non-residential construction investment suggests a demand recovery from late 2025 to mid-2026, with some companies planning price increases to cope with cost pressures. [2][3] - The European market has underperformed due to prior stockpiling and economic factors, yet rental companies are seeing stable revenue and rental rates. Zhejiang Dingli, benefiting from lower anti-dumping tax rates, is expected to gain from market recovery. [2][3] - Emerging markets continue to grow at a rate of 20%-30%, indicating long-term growth potential due to the disparity in per capita ownership compared to overseas markets. [2][4] Company Insights - Zhejiang Dingli is currently the only Chinese company able to export aerial work platforms to the U.S., facing high tariffs (up to 89%), but still maintaining a gross margin of over 25%. [2][4] - The company successfully reduced its anti-dumping tax rate to 12.4% in November 2024, although total tariff levels have risen again due to U.S. government-imposed tariffs. [2][6] - Dingli's market share in Europe and the U.S. is continuously growing, particularly in the U.S. Boom Lift sector, which presents significant potential despite high tariffs. [2][7] Financial Performance and Projections - The aerial work platform industry is primarily used in industrial and commercial applications, with core markets concentrated in Europe and the U.S. [3] - In the U.S., the annual growth rate of aerial work platform ownership is around 5%-10%, but demand is expected to stabilize in 2024-2025 due to previous over-demand. [3][4] - The company’s core products, including inspection, enclosure, and water closure types, hold about 10% market share in Europe and the U.S. [8] - Increasing sales by 1,000 units annually could generate an additional revenue of 1 billion yuan, corresponding to a net profit growth of approximately 10%. [9] - Despite high tariffs potentially impacting gross margins, mid-term profit growth is expected to remain stable at around 15%. [9][10] Challenges and Strategic Responses - Zhejiang Dingli faces challenges from high tariffs in the U.S. and Europe, with total tariffs reaching 68%-69% as of April 2025. [6] - The company actively engages in review lawsuits to lower anti-dumping tax rates, maintaining a competitive edge with relatively lower rates compared to other manufacturers. [6][10] - The European market's anti-dumping investigation is expected to last five years, providing a stable environment for potential growth if demand recovers. [7] Investment Considerations - Despite tariff pressures, Zhejiang Dingli demonstrates strong resilience and profitability, with ongoing efforts to reduce costs and improve market positioning. [10] - The anticipated economic recovery in the U.S. and Europe is likely to enhance the company's performance, making it a noteworthy investment opportunity. [10] Other Notable Companies - Anhui Heli is highlighted as another company to watch, supplying components to SpaceX and involved in various sectors aligned with economic recovery trends. [11]