Economic Overview - The first quarter of 2025 showed a good economic start, with March export data exceeding expectations, driven by a "rush to export" effect, leading to a year-on-year export growth rate of 12.4%[6] - Core economic indicators such as consumption, investment, and real estate showed significant improvement, primarily due to the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies[6] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment being the main drivers[6] Trade and Policy Implications - The recent trade conflict that erupted in early April did not impact the first quarter's economic performance; instead, the "rush to export" provided some support[7] - The upcoming April Politburo meeting is expected to focus on macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with a high probability of further policy implementation[7] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is identified as the government's primary task for 2025, with a focus on childcare subsidies, real estate, and tourism[8] - Recent policies include increased childcare subsidies and support for the real estate market, indicating a commitment to releasing market potential[8] Market Expectations - Since late February, market expectations for the 2025 performance of the Wind All A Index have weakened, with the consensus forecast for net profit declining from CNY 66,149.50 billion to CNY 63,991.29 billion, a drop of 3.26%[10] - This decline reflects a market reassessment of the U.S. government's trade stance towards China, particularly following tariff increases[10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.59%, indicating a stronger performance compared to other indices like the ChiNext and the CSI 500, which saw declines[5] - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 17.95, up by 1.02% from the previous week[5]

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 震荡 | | | 周二，玉米先跌后涨，7 月合约持仓增加，期价以小阴线收盘。在连续两日的期 货调整过程中，玉米期价领跌，现货强于期货，基差回归。近期玉米 5 月合约持 | | | | 仓下降，7 月合约增仓，加权合约持仓增加，空头增仓占优。现货市场方面，北 | | | | 港高水分玉米走货一般，货源也相对较多，港口价格表现暂显一般。但是，产区 | | | | 贸易商低价出货意向一般，东北产区价格暂较为坚挺。周末华北地区玉米价格整 | | | | 体稳中偏强运行。贸易商出货意愿减弱， 深加工企业门前到货量维持低位，支 | | | 玉米 | 撑价格偏强，深加工企业玉米收购价格普遍上调 10-30 元/吨。周末销区市场玉 | | | | 米价格整体稳定运行。下游按需拿货，少量补充库存，饲料厂当前对远月市场看 | | | | 涨心态一般，6-7 月份远期订单签订减少。港口提货速度一般，价格维持稳定为 | | | | 主。技术上，玉米 7 月合约 2300 元/吨整数关口是近 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 16 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】周二（4 月 15 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指连续六个交易日收涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.15%， 收报 3267.66 点；深证成指跌 0.27%，收报 9858.10 点；创业板指跌 0.13%，收报 1930.40 点。沪深两市成交额 仅有 10772 亿，较昨日缩量 2003 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 15 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3761.24，环比上涨 2.09。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 15 日焦炭加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1575.5 元，环比上涨 19.2。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 １ 编辑：国新国证期货 4 月 15 日，焦煤加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 957.0 元，环比上涨 1.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：第一轮提涨部分落地，关注后续是否有继续提涨动能。受关税政策影响，焦炭价格跟随钢材走势为主。 铁水日产小幅拾升，焦化利润明显收缩，但日产持续抬升。焦炭整体库存去化不畅仍维持高位，贸易采购积极性 有所回落。 焦煤：炼焦煤矿山有复产情况出现，周内产量抬升 ...

美豆价格小幅走低，中国大豆进口创17年新低，贸易冲突阴云叠加巴西困局，未来大豆市场将如何破 局？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The market still has concerns about trade conflicts, and the international crude oil price has declined again, which may have a negative impact on the methanol futures trend. It is expected that the methanol market will likely remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - related news and olefin plant changes. For MA2505, it is recommended to operate with a bearish bias [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The methanol market is affected by trade conflict concerns and falling international crude oil prices. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro news and olefin plant changes. For MA2505, a bearish operation is recommended [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some plants have shutdown or maintenance plans; March import is expected to be low, and port de - stocking exceeds expectations; olefin operation is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand enters the peak season; methanol factory inventories in production areas are tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the operation of refineries in northern Shandong is at a low level; the weather in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although methanol has risen significantly recently, cost transfer is difficult, and attention should be paid to negative feedback from downstream; upstream factories are actively selling under high - profit conditions [6]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2480 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is 88, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The futures closing price is 2392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 484,900 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol supply in coastal areas decreased by 24,800 tons to 301,200 tons [5]. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [7]. - **Profit**: The weekly changes in the profits of coal - based, natural - gas - based, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol production were - 37, 0, and - 348 respectively [14]. - **External Market**: The CFR China price decreased by 7.08% week - on - week, and the CFR Southeast Asia price decreased by 4.14% week - on - week. The price difference decreased by 5 [23]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end times and varying production losses [56]. - **Foreign Plants**: Some Iranian plants restarted in mid - March but have low operating rates, while plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Qatar are generally operating normally [57].

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 美国历史上也出现过保护主义抬头，美国关税壁垒高筑的情况，例如上世纪3 0年代签署的《斯姆 特-霍利关税法》。如今，特朗普关税政策在保护本国产业、迎合特定选民等方面与该法案相似。 然而，这轮背景不同导致特朗普关税政策更为激进且专断，考虑当前经济环境与各国博弈情况，美 国与较多国家关于对等关税的谈判有望在今年二三季度完成，但是中美贸易谈判的难度更高，预计 谈判时长会更久。 ▍ 《斯姆特-霍利关税法》出台于全球产能过剩、美国经济大萧条的背景之下，其目的是保护美 国本土产业、缓解就业压力，进而推动经济复苏。 2 0 世纪 2 0 年代，全球产能过剩，欧洲市场对美国商品的需求剧减。1 9 2 9 年，美国经济大萧 条，国内生产陷入困境，保护主义情绪进一步高涨。尽管该法案充满争议，但多方政治力量推动 下，最终于 1 9 3 0 年 6 月签署立法。 ▍ 《斯姆特-霍利关税法》落地后，各国反制引发了全球贸易冲突，对美国和全球经济造成了深 远的破坏性影响。 加拿大率先对占美国出口 3 0% 的商品加征关税，欧洲国家同样反应强烈，法国、意大利、西班 牙等国相继提高对美商品关税。受此影响，美国对外贸 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The US announced a 90 - day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on most economies after 13 hours of implementation, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, which significantly boosted global risk appetite. In China, measures such as increasing ETF and related stock holdings, and stock repurchases by listed companies, along with potential new incremental policies, supported the domestic market's risk appetite [3]. - For different asset classes, short - term strategies include cautious long - positions for stocks, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy - chemical products; cautious short - term holding for black metals; and cautious short - term observation for black metals [3]. Summary by Relevant Categories Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Supported by sectors like military, port shipping, and software development, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. Despite short - term market volatility due to Sino - US tariff disputes, domestic measures and potential policies provided support. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term, they are expected to oscillate and rebound, with cautious long - positions advised [3]. - **Commodity Sector**: Black metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with cautious observation recommended; non - ferrous metals, energy - chemical products, and precious metals are expected to rebound, with cautious long - positions advised [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, the precious metals market significantly recovered. COMEX gold rose over 3% to around 3100, and Shanghai gold rebounded to around 740. Although the global trade tension has eased, gold still has allocation value as a hedge against instability. In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the US dollar credit crisis provide upward momentum for gold [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to decline, but trading volume increased. While real - world demand is marginally improving, there are concerns about demand peaking. Supply is expected to increase further. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to weaken. Although iron - water production is expected to rise, there are concerns about demand decline in the future. Supply is expected to decrease. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese continued to decline. While short - term demand is still acceptable, supply is decreasing. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Trump announced a suspension of high - tariff policies on some trading partners, but the impact of China's tariff increase remains. Oil prices are expected to be highly volatile in the near term [9]. - **Asphalt**: Driven by crude oil prices, the spot price has weakened. Although the inventory situation has slightly improved, actual demand is still weak. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [9]. - **PX**: PX prices are oscillating at a low level. In addition to monitoring crude oil prices, attention should be paid to overseas oil - blending demand. Prices are expected to remain low this week [10]. - **PTA**: US terminal orders are stagnant, and downstream production and sales are extremely sluggish. PTA is expected to slightly rebound with the rise of crude oil prices [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Shipping volume is at a very low level, and inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [11]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by oil prices, short - fiber prices have significantly declined. Although there is some price support, it is expected to remain weakly trending in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market in Taicang is weakly declining. Near - month contracts are supported by inventory decline, while far - month contracts are weaker. In the short term, there may be concentrated selling due to risk aversion, but there is still some support from inventory reduction in the medium - term [12]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market continued to decline. With new upstream device launches and weak downstream demand, prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - **LLDPE**: The PE market price continued to fall. Supply is relatively loose, and demand growth has slowed. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After the US announced a 90 - day tariff suspension on non - retaliatory countries, LME copper rebounded significantly. However, due to Trump's inconsistent policies and trade - war pressures, the rebound height is limited [14]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have fallen sharply and are in an oversold state. The impact of tariffs has weakened. The fundamentals are stable, but the market is mainly driven by macro factors. A rebound is approaching [14]. - **Tin**: After a sharp decline, tin prices rebounded due to the US tariff suspension. However, considering the potential supply increase and macro risks, the rebound height is limited [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybeans continued to rise slightly overnight. The market's focus is shifting to the April USDA report and spring - sowing conditions. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant [16]. - **Soybean Meal**: With the arrival of South American soybeans, domestic soybean supply is stable. The spot basis is expected to weaken, while futures are affected by import - cost increases and supply - chain concerns. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean export prices and US new - season sowing [16]. - **Oils and Fats**: International energy and oil prices rebounded, and domestic oil prices were stable overnight. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report, as analysts expect palm oil inventory in Malaysia to increase by 3% to 1.56 million tons at the end of March [17][18]. - **Corn**: The upper limit of the current price range is pressured by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premiums, and policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the spot selling pressure at the end of the month [18]. - **Hogs**: The spot market is in a range - bound situation. There is still significant pressure on hog slaughter in April - May. With an expected increase in planned slaughter in April, rising feed costs, and completed reserve - inventory rotation, the upward drive for hog prices in April is weak [18].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250408 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 海外方面，在对等关税落地生效前，关税博弈牵动全球市场。特朗普称不会暂停对等关 税措施，拒绝欧盟提议的互免关税政策，但对谈判持开放态度；若中国不取消上周对美国产 品加征的 34%关税，威胁对华再额外加征 50%关税。美盘市场波动加剧、避险交易暂时缓 和，美元指数回升至 103.5，10Y 美债利率从 3.87%回升至 4.2%，纳指震荡收涨，金价下跌 1.8%、伦铜创下 16 个月新低、油价创下近 4 年新低。 国内方面，A 股在假期贸易冲突升级、全球衰退预期下补跌，上证指数跌破 3100 关口 （-7.3%），中证 1000、创业板指、北证 50 跌幅分别为 11.4%、12.5%、18%，两市成交额 回升至 1.6 万亿，行业上仅在中国出口反制下的农业板块收涨。特朗普威胁对华再加征 50% 关税，在幅度上对贸易影响边际减弱，但意味着中美贸易脱钩缓和余地在骤降，隔夜美股止 跌但中概股跌幅调整超 5%，短期国内风险 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Treasury Futures**: Bullish, suggesting active long - position layout [14] - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: Short - term volatility, maintaining a short - term oscillation view [19] - **Gold**: Short - term callback, suggesting reducing positions and waiting for better allocation opportunities [21] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Cautious, suggesting careful control of positions due to ongoing adjustments [24] - **Stock Index Futures**: Suggesting reducing positions and waiting and seeing [27] - **Power Coal**: Stable price, with limited expected fluctuations in the short term [28] - **Iron Ore**: Cautious, suggesting reducing the holding period and avoiding external risks [30] - **Palm Oil**: Bearish in the short term, suggesting a short - selling mindset [34] - **Soybean Oil**: Suggesting attention to the 5 - 9 spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [34] - **Sugar**: Short - term bullish support from spot prices, but potential risks from the trade war [39] - **Cotton**: Short - term bearish, suggesting light - position and cautious operation [44] - **Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil**: Suggesting light - position and using a rebound hedging strategy [47] - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish for domestic futures, bearish for CBOT soybeans, with different impacts on near - and far - month contracts [50] - **Nickel**: Suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides [53] - **Copper**: Short - term pressure, suggesting attention to long - position opportunities after sentiment digestion and focusing on the Shanghai copper inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [57] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggesting holding previous short positions and not chasing short at the current level [59] - **Lead**: Short - term waiting, suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities at low levels in the medium term; holding the internal - external reverse arbitrage [61] - **Zinc**: Short - term waiting, suggesting looking for medium - term rebound short - selling opportunities; temporarily waiting for inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [64] - **Polysilicon**: Suggesting both long - entry at low levels for PS2506 and short - selling at high levels for PS2511; holding the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [67] - **Industrial Silicon**: Suggesting short - selling at high levels after the rebound on the disk and the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage [69] - **Carbon Emissions**: Short - term wide - range oscillation [71] - **Crude Oil**: Expected lower price fluctuation range in the second quarter [74] - **Bottle Chips**: Short - term processing fees in the low - level range [79] - **Caustic Soda**: Limited further downward space for the disk [80] - **Pulp**: Suggesting attention to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the pulp supply chain [81] - **PVC**: Suggesting waiting and seeing due to non - prominent fundamental contradictions [83] - **Soda Ash**: Maintaining a medium - term view of short - selling at high levels [84] - **Float Glass**: Suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities at large pullbacks in the short term [86] - **Container Freight Index**: Short - term waiting, with near - month contracts in a weak - oscillation state [88] 2. Core Views The report focuses on the impact of the US tariff policy and China's counter - measures on various financial and commodity markets. The trade conflict has led to increased market volatility, risk aversion, and concerns about global economic recession. Different markets show different responses based on their own fundamentals and supply - demand relationships. For example, in the financial market, bond markets may rise, while the US dollar index shows short - term oscillations. In the commodity market, most products face price pressure due to the trade war, but some products are also affected by their own supply - demand factors, such as the potential increase in palm oil inventory and the impact of copper's macro - sentiment and inventory structure on its price. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - News: China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods starting from April 10, 2025. The central bank conducted 2234 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 3, with a net investment of 49 billion yuan [12][13] - Comment: The trade conflict may escalate, and the upward trend of the bond market is relatively certain. Long - term bonds may still have downward space after the holiday, and short - term bonds may rise if the monetary policy turns loose [13] - Investment Advice: Actively conduct long - position layout [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: US Treasury Secretary supports the tariff policy and denies that the US will fall into recession. The White House Chief Economic Advisor says the market crash is not Trump's strategy. The EU is ready to counter the US tariff measures [15][16][17] - Comment: White House officials believe the impact of tariffs on the economy is controllable. Short - term tariffs will continue to cause significant market fluctuations, and the US dollar index will maintain an oscillatory trend [18] - Investment Advice: Short - term oscillation of the US dollar [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Fed Chairman Powell says monetary policy needs to remain cautious. The US March non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations. China imposed a 34% tariff on US - originated imported goods [20][21] - Comment: Gold prices fell by more than 2% on Friday. The US tariff policy and OPEC's production increase led to a decline in market risk appetite, and gold was affected by liquidity. The short - term financial market's risk - aversion sentiment persists, but gold's trade - related premium is limited [21] - Investment Advice: Short - term callback, reducing positions and waiting for better allocation opportunities [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: The US March non - farm employment increased by 228,000, higher than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [22] - Comment: The labor market remains resilient, but the market's reaction is muted due to tariff risks. The tariff policy has increased inflation risks, and the Fed may be more cautious. The market is worried about economic downturn [24] - Investment Advice: Cautious control of positions due to ongoing adjustments in the US stock market [24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's offline consumption heat index increased by 14.2% year - on - year in the first quarter. China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods [25][26] - Comment: Trump's tariff policy led to a global stock market crash. The A - share market will also face significant adjustments. In the short term, the fundamentals and risk appetite are unclear [26] - Investment Advice: Reducing positions and waiting and seeing [27] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: Canadian coal shipments in the 13th week of 2025 increased by 6.52% year - on - year [28] - Comment: Short - term steam coal prices will remain stable. The decline in imported coal since March has slightly increased domestic coal demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated. April is the off - season, and the power plant's inventory replenishment cycle has not arrived [28] - Investment Advice: Limited price changes in the short term [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: An Australian mining company plans to produce 2 million tons of iron ore in Madagascar [29] - Comment: The trade conflict has intensified, and the SGX swap price has declined. The black - metal market may be under pressure, especially in the plate - related sectors. The iron ore price may be supported around $90 [29] - Investment Advice: Reducing the holding period and avoiding external risks [30] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil) - News: Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase for the first time in six months in March. CBOT soybean oil fluctuated greatly last week [31][34] - Comment: Market institutions predict that Malaysian palm oil inventory will increase by 3% in March. Domestic palm oil is expected to open lower and maintain a low - level oscillation this week. Soybean oil prices may decline, but the decline of near - month contracts may be greater than that of far - month contracts [33][34] - Investment Advice: Short - selling palm oil in the short term; attention to the 5 - 9 spread reverse arbitrage opportunity for soybean oil [34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Brazilian weather risks may support sugar prices. Brazilian sugarcane production is expected to decline. Guangxi's sugar production in the 24/25 season reached 646.08 million tons as of the end of March [35][36][37] - Comment: Domestic sugar mills' sales progress is fast, and spot prices are firm, providing short - term bullish support for the futures market. However, the trade war may bring risks to the sugar market [38][39] - Investment Advice: The current spot price supports the futures market, but the trade war may pose risks [39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - News: Xinjiang's spring weather is generally favorable for spring sowing. The US cancelled the tax - free treatment of small - value packages from China. The US cotton export in the week of March 21 - 27 increased week - on - week [40][41][42] - Comment: Although the US cotton weekly export volume increased, the next - year's export prospects face challenges due to the trade war. China's cotton textile exports are blocked, and the cotton market is under pressure [43][44] - Investment Advice: Short - term bearish, suggesting light - position and cautious operation [44] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 477,200 tons week - on - week as of April 3. The real - estate market in some hot cities was active in March [45][46] - Comment: Due to the tariff risk, the external market declined. The black - metal market's fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the long - term demand for hot - rolled coils has risks. Steel prices may decline on Monday [46] - Investment Advice: Light - position operation and using a rebound hedging strategy [47] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: Brazil exported 14.68 million tons of soybeans in March. China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods, and the tariff on US soybeans will reach 47% [48][50] - Comment: The tariff on US soybeans will accelerate China's shift to Brazilian soybeans. The new round of Sino - US trade war is bullish for domestic soybean meal futures, especially for far - month contracts. The inventory of domestic soybean meal will increase in the second half of April [50] - Investment Advice: Bullish for domestic soybean meal futures, bearish for CBOT soybeans. The increase in domestic soybean arrivals will pressure the spot and basis of soybean meal [50] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The Shanghai nickel futures inventory decreased by 3669 tons in the week of April 4 [51] - Comment: Trump's tariff policy led to a decline in the nickel price. After the release of risk sentiment, the price may return to the previous level. The nickel ore market is tight, and the nickel - iron market is strong, but there is a risk of oversupply [52] - Investment Advice: Looking for long - entry opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides [53] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: US mining giants are exploring new technologies to extract copper from old mines. Zambia's copper production may increase to nearly 1 million tons in 2025. Southeast Copper's cathode copper production increased by 4.25% year - on - year in the first quarter [54][55][56] - Comment: The US tariff policy and counter - measures have led to concerns about global economic recession, suppressing copper prices. The domestic inventory is weakly destocking, and the inventory change may support copper prices in the future [57] - Investment Advice: Short - term pressure on copper prices, suggesting attention to long - position opportunities after sentiment digestion and focusing on the Shanghai copper inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [57] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Lithium Americas reached a final investment decision on the Thacker Pass lithium mine [58] - Comment: The current fundamentals of lithium prices are bearish. Domestic salt - factory production remains high, demand is weak, and the ore price is falling. The warehouse receipt registration has increased [59] - Investment Advice: Holding previous short positions and not chasing short at the current level [59] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: MMG released its Q4 2024 report, and the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $27.28 per ton on April 2 [60][61] - Comment: The US tariff mainly affects lead - acid battery exports. The lead price decline is due to market risk - aversion and concerns about future exports. The Shanghai lead may open at around 16,800 yuan, and it is recommended to wait for the macro - risk to clear and look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [61] - Investment Advice: Short - term waiting, looking for long - entry opportunities at low levels in the medium term; holding the internal - external reverse arbitrage [61] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $18.13 per ton on April 2. MMG released its Q4 2024 report, and an Australian silver - zinc mine is approaching restart [62][63] - Comment: The US tariff affects zinc through market risk - aversion and concerns about future consumption in related industries. The Shanghai zinc may open at around 22,500 yuan. The demand is in the process of turning from off - season to peak season, but the short - term price may still be under pressure [64] - Investment Advice: Short - term waiting, looking for medium - term rebound short - selling opportunities; temporarily waiting for inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [64] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods. The polysilicon production in April is expected to be about 1 million tons, and the silicon wafer supply will decrease due to the Myanmar earthquake [65] - Comment: The tariff has limited impact on the photovoltaic industry chain. In April, polysilicon may destock slightly, but the spot price may decline after the peak - demand period. The polysilicon warehouse receipt registration will start in April [66] - Investment Advice: Looking for long - entry at low levels for PS2506 and short - selling at high levels for PS2511; holding the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [67] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: Sichuan sample silicon enterprises are gradually resuming production [68] - Comment: Xinjiang's large - scale silicon plants have reduced production, and the southwest region is slowly resuming production. The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon is weak, and the export may decline. The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon is difficult to improve [68] - Investment Advice: Looking for short - selling at high levels after the rebound on the disk and the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage [69] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The EUA main contract closed at €63.82 per ton on April 4, down 3.39% from the previous day and 7.24% week - on - week [70] - Comment: The US tariff policy led to a decline in the European natural gas price and carbon price. The short - term carbon market needs to pay attention to the macro - environment. The EU's emissions decreased by 5% in 2024 [70] - Investment Advice: Short - term wide - range oscillation of the EU carbon price [71] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The US oil rig count increased to 489 as of April 4. OPEC + decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May [72][73] - Comment: The US tariff policy and OPEC +'s production increase led to a significant decline in oil prices. The global trade friction has worsened the oil demand outlook, and the market is worried about OPEC +'s unity and the stability of the production - cut agreement [73] - Investment Advice: The oil price fluctuation range is expected to be lower in the second quarter [74

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating with a bullish bias. It is recommended to wait and see for now due to the bullish impact of tariff policies but with suppression from the macro and demand sides [5] - Cross-variety: None - Options: None - Cross-period: None - Spot-futures: None 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market has changed suddenly. Under the impact of OPEC's production increase and the US "reciprocal tariff," Brent and WTI have both fallen by more than 10% in a short period [4][10] - After China's tariff countermeasures against the US, the original trade pattern of LPG will be broken. If trade negotiations make no progress, China's LPG imports from the US may drop rapidly or even to zero. The FEI swap price has fallen by $83 to $500/ton, while the CP swap price remains relatively stable at $595/ton. China is expected to significantly reduce LPG purchases from the US and turn to the Middle East for substitutes, and the CP market is expected to remain strong [4][21] - Currently, the US LPG faces the loss of an important buyer's demand, an increase in Chinese enterprises' import costs, and further pressure on PDH plant profits [4][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil: OPEC Production Increase and Tariff Impact Lead to a Sharp Drop in Oil Prices - Under the impact of OPEC's production increase and the US "reciprocal tariff," the crude oil market has dropped in resonance with risk assets in a short period, with Brent and WTI both falling by more than 10% [10] - The US "reciprocal tariff" has a significant impact on the macroeconomy and the crude oil market. It may trigger counter - tariff measures from other countries, and China has announced tariff countermeasures. Global oil demand is expected to decline by 1 million barrels per day [10] - OPEC and non - OPEC countries decided to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels from May this year, which is higher than market expectations. The crude oil market is under pressure from both supply and demand, and considering the uncertainty at the macro level, caution is advised [10] 3.2 China's Tariff Countermeasures Against the US May Cause a Major Shock in the LPG Market - After the US implemented the "reciprocal tariff" policy, China announced tariff countermeasures on April 4, 2025. Starting from April 10, 2025, a 34% tariff will be added to all imported goods from the US [17] - In 2024, China's total LPG imports were 35.68 million tons, with imports from the US accounting for more than half. The new tariff policy will break the original LPG trade pattern. If trade negotiations make no progress, China's LPG imports from the US may drop to zero [21] - After the counter - measure news, the FEI swap price fell by $83 to $500/ton, while the CP swap price remained stable at $595/ton, indicating that China will reduce LPG purchases from the US and turn to the Middle East, and the CP market is expected to remain strong [21] 3.3 PDH Plant Profits are Under Pressure, and the Operating Rate May Decline - Before the intensification of the tariff conflict, the domestic LPG market had support at the bottom but lacked upward drivers. After the US implemented the "reciprocal tariff" and China announced counter - measures, the LPG supply - demand pattern was significantly affected [38] - After the 34% tariff is added, the cost of US propane at the port of arrival may exceed 5,500 yuan/ton, further pressuring the profits of domestic PDH plants. In the short term, the supply from other sources such as the Middle East cannot fill the gap, and some PDH plants may choose to shut down for maintenance, leading to a decline in the operating rate [38]